Showing posts with label CCF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CCF. Show all posts

Sunday, September 08, 2013

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

Aloha everyone. The Big Wave Trading model is in a mixed variety of signals, with the Nasdaq currently under a BUY signal, the SP500 and Russell 2000 are under a NEUTRAL signal, and the DJIA is under a SELL signal. It is not too often you will see us under all three signals at once but here we are. Overall, the market does have the “feel” of a market that is ready to launch higher. The reasoning behind this is our analysis of leading stocks, leading industry groups, speculative stocks, and the technical condition of the overall market. Right now, things look really good for a continuation in prices in the uptrending direction. We are basically fully invested here, with only a small hedge working in the SDOW. This position will be closed out, obviously, if we switch back to a NEUTRAL or BUY signal in the Dow. We are not fully invested based on what we believe or think the market will do. We are fully invested because so many leading stocks have triggered legitimate buy signals that we have utilized all our capital. Do you know what year it was the last time I was all out of cash to deploy in the market? 2003. So the thinking is that based on past analysis the rest of the year should be solid. Still, do you think we will not sell EVERYTHING if the market tells us to? You know we will. If the market reverses, sell limits or hit, or our big winners reverse on huge volume, trust me we will not waste any time running to the exits and reversing our positions to the short side via leveraged ETFs. At Big Wave Trading the most important thing is to be prepared for everything. Nothing in life is ever guaranteed. Shock events and black swans show up all the time. However, we would like to point out a correlation between the current market and that 2003 market that remains my best trading period ever in my life. In 2003 we went into Iraq. Now it is 2013 and we are going into Syria. Is history repeating itself again? Probably not. But it sure is rhyming. Have a wonderful upcoming week. I wish you all the best. Aloha from Maui. TOP CURRENT HOLDINGS – PERCENT GAIN – DATE OF SIGNAL CAMP long – 202% – 4/26/12 WAGE long – 145% – 1/8/13 FLT long – 132% – 9/6/12 POWR long – 123% – 12/11/12 HEES long – 103% – 9/4/12 INSM long – 102% – 4/19/13 MEI long – 92% – 4/10/13 ADUS long – 81% – 4/22/13 LGF long – 54% – 4/19/13 WDC long – 48% – 1/9/13 GMCR long – 46% – 4/23/13 CHUY long – 42% – 1/10/13 TRLA long – 38% – 6/28/13 V long – 37% – 8/31/12 ADS long – 37% – 12/11/12 OCN long – 37% – 5/8/13 DDD long – 35% – 4/30/13 CCF long – 34% – 6/28/13 WST long – 34% – 1/22/13 LOCK long – 33% – 5/20/13 BEAV long – 31% – 3/5/13

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading portfolio remains under a BUY signal with only a minor amount of pressure on the indexes following the weak price action on Tuesday and Wednesday in the overall market. Besides that there is no pressure in our model as leading stocks, speculative stocks, and the overall market continue to trend higher in lockstep. With this being the case, it does not make much sense to drone on and on about the minute details of the trading action the past week. It was a very successful week in terms of playing straddles/strangles before earnings on a few stocks like FB, BIDU, and TRIP and buyable gap ups remain the best way to return alpha in this low volume uptrending market. Overall, it was a decent week with not much to dissect or psycho-analyze. There is no need to waste any more of your valuable weekend time. Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I wish you the best during the upcoming week. Aloha!! Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain since Signal Date – Date of Signal RVLT long – 191% – 3/26/13 CAMP long – 167% – 4/26/12 POWR long – 143% – 12/11/12 FLT long – 103% – 9/6/12 CSU long – 91% – 9/4/12 HEES long – 91% – 9/4/12 WAGE long – 90% – 1/8/13 SBGI long – 64% – 3/22/13 ADUS long – 64% – 4/22/13 INSM long – 50% – 4/19/13 V long – 50% – 8/31/12 TECUA long – 47% – 2/5/13 WDC long – 42% – 1/9/13 MEI long – 41% – 4/10/13 LGF long – 38% – 4/19/13 CHUY long – 37% – 1/10/13 GLL long – 34% – 2/14/13 GMCR long – 34% – 4/23/13 ADS long – 32% – 12/11/12 PFBI long – 31% – 11/19/12 WST long – 30% – 1/22/13 BEAV long – 28% – 3/5/13 CCF long – 26% – 6/28/13 DDD long – 25% – 4/30/13

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Big Wave Trading Portfolio Update And Top Current Holdings

The Big Wave Trading Model remains under a BUY signal with very little data weighing against its current signal. The stock market climbed higher, across the board, this week and despite the lower volume there remains very little to zero selling pressure in the current tape. Friday’s intraday action confirms that above analysis as a morning gap lower found support early on the SP-500 and DJIA and mid-day for the Nasdaq. This kind of action, following a gap lower, is very constructive and says a lot about the strength in this market considering how extended the major averages are from their respective 200 day moving averages. We are not in the business of attempting to call tops at Big Wave Trading. We simply move like water with the market. As the market’s trend flows upward, we will ride that wave accordingly. When the shift comes, we will be quick to hedge our positions and sell off securities that violate trailing cut loss levels or key moving averages. Despite the strong market and our success this year, we have no interest in trying to limit the gains by trying to anticipate a turn in the market here. Therefore, there is nothing to do here, currently, but ride the trend higher until it does turn. When we see another day like 5/22 we will start a hedge and then operate around that hedge according to the price action in the market. Right now, we have a lot of momentum inherent in this market and based on past historical strength like this, we expect more bases to be formed in the coming months and a resolution to the upside. However, we are not betting on this information and only using it as a possible guide to the upcoming rest of the year. If the market begins a selloff, starts making lower highs and lower lows, with leading stocks breaking down hard, we will be very quick to sell out our long positions and move to the short side. However, in this tape, betting on the short side has continuously been a losing proposition and not one we are interested in entertaining as long as the fed’s liquidity injections via POMO/ZIRP/QE continues. One day the uptrend will end and when it does the short side will be extremely profitable to trend traders. For now, though, the trend is up and I will be more than happy to ride it much higher if it does have much higher to go before the inevitable sell off happens. I would not mind at all if this market went parabolic before climaxing and reversing lower. It would make for a much more profitable venture for our current long positions and give us a better base to begin our short side work on. Right now, that is all forward thinking and planning. The reality of today is a market that is hitting new highs on low volume with no sellers above. To bet against a continuation of this trend would be to make a major gamble against history. One day we will not hit new highs. Until that day happens, I do not advise fighting this tape. I know a lot of traders that decided to do this on 5/22. I got a lot of messages and emails telling me that 5/22 was the top. How do you think these “traders” feel now? Based on my near 20 years of doing this for a living, I can tell you almost for sure that they more-than-likely still believe they are right. Too bad the stock market doesn’t care about what they believe. Either you want to be right or you want to make money. Which is it? I can tell you which one we focus on at Big Wave Trading. I hope you are choosing correctly. If not sooner or later your bottom line results will let you know if you chose correctly. Have a great rest of your weekend and I wish you all the best during this upcoming week. Aloha from the gorgeous island of Maui where all of us that live here are 100% grateful to call this our home. Top Current Holdings – Percent Gain Since Purchase – Date of Signal RVLT long – 196% – 3/26/13 CAMP long – 167% – 4/26/12 POWR long – 150% – 12/11/12 CSU long – 104% – 9/4/12 HEES long – 98% – 9/4/12 FLT long – 95% – 9/6/12 WAGE long – 86% – 1/8/13 ADUS long – 66% – 4/22/13 SBGI long – 63% – 3/22/13 INSM long – 61% – 4/19/13 WDC long – 59% – 1/9/13 TECUA long – 56% – 2/5/13 V long – 48% – 8/31/12 CHUY long – 46% – 1/10/13 MEI long – 43% – 4/10/13 GLL long – 42% – 2/14/13 LGF long – 37% – 4/19/13 PFBI long – 31% – 7/19/12 GMCR long – 31% – 4/23/13 WST long – 31% – 1/22/13 ADS long – 30% – 12/11/12