Monday, March 06, 2006

Major Indexes End Red As Stocks Reversed In The Afternoon; Volume Was Mixed

Stocks closed lower today as this time the yield curve going flat instead of inverted scared traders. LOL. If it isn't one thing it is another. I thought three weeks ago a inverted yield curve was a bad thing and today the media says it reversing and going flat is now bad. Whatever. LOL.

The SP 600 fell 1.1%, SP 400 1%, SP 500 .7%, and the Nasdaq .7%. The selling was higher on the NYSE giving it its second distribution day in a week. The volume on the Nasdaq came in lower as decliners beat advancers 5 to 4. The increase in trading on the NYSE might have been skewed by the ATT and SBC deal. Whatever the reason or cause, it was still higher and is still a distribution day.

The markets continue to look like they are either churning or basing on heavy volume. Whatever it is doing it is best to just be patient and wait for the indexes to make a move instead of trying to predict where it will go. Either way, the back and forth action has the feel that the market doesn't want to go anywhere any time soon.

In saying that, however, the SP500, Nasdaq, SP 400, SP 600, and the Dow Jones are just 1-2% off of their highs. With all this bearish news for the markets to deal with, only being down 1-2% is incredible. To go along with only being down that little, the II survey of bull/bear newsletters has been going in the right direction for seven straight weeks.

My stocks continue to pullback normally and I only did some minor selling on positions that have been big winners (RBAK-200%) or non-performers (DMC-50 dma failure, 6% loss).

So today has not really changed much with the overall market situation. The indexes are still in uptrends or sideways patterns and the selling today did not do much damage that. Therefore, to get a more solid feel for the market I would read the past week or two of my market commentary to get a more solid feel for where this market has been and where it could be headed.

Great luck this week. It should be choppy!


New Swing Longs: LIFC NANX IONA

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market: PNRG-40% BLD-40% MFLX-199% TRAD-69% COGO ERS-145% WIRE-139% VIMC NEWP KEYS-40% KNXA-40% MEK-65% KDN MORN STMP-35% ICTG-65% PETS-151% BOOM-366% RVSN-33% RAIL-72% MDCC-40% OXPS-84% SNPS NNDS-25% MMK-39% QCC ALTU RUTH SSW BWNG-103% NVAX-27% BKHM-59% DIET-53% REGN-60% AGT ZL-35% ESLR-138% NENG TWTC-105% Q-50% CCUR BFT CYBS RDCM-50% TNOX-30% MTZ EFJI OPLK CUP RUSHA EDS SIM CAMT MDM-28% WDHD

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: MEND IVAN PT BWEB

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have a dell with two displays but need to add on a another pc for back-up and probably 4 more monitors. Was wondering if any one could compare the Zenview, x-view and Dell systems. The Zenview shows Stratosphere for powering the montors they sell. Any info would be helpful. Xview are systems built for trading.The can be found at xview.com thanks

Joshua_NControl said...

I use Dell. But unless I find a great computer technician, XView might seem like a great investment.

Zenview and XView are both great products. I, along with the poster, would love to hear from anyone who has used either of these products. I will contact them on my own but would love to hear from my readers; if any readers use these.
.......................................

TRX--no position

Elliot,

I, personally, would not buy it based on this article. The fundamentals are not that great and the story is pretty mundane with these kind of companies.

That might be positive being boring. But boring and little price history on a technical basis is not what I like to see in a long term investment.

TRX has a good chart now but with little price history to make an informed statement it is hard for me to say I really like this chart.

I am going to ignore this stock for now, unless it pops up on one of my scans.
.....................................

Market Speculator,

Up country is different than central Maui. Central Maui is around the airport.

Ono is very tasty. Ahi--especially Panko Crusted--is still my preference. However, the best tasting fish dish I have had was a Parmesean Crusted Opakapaka at Kimo's.
.....................................

Great luck everyone!

Market Speculator said...

Josh...

Well if you are headed near Kahalui...then you gotta take up wind surfing!!!

Something to note is the surge in online trading. Ameritrade and Etrade are noting that they have a pick up in volume in trades. So the little guy is started to get in the game...just making me think that we are nearing the end. Still have to wait to see what the market tells us but having the "little guy" in there makes me suspicious!

BTW - any fish in Maui is my favorite, I eat like I king everytime I go...love it!

Anonymous said...

Hi, Josh. When the Dow followed through a few weeks ago, I asked you why IBD reset the distribution count on all indexes, especially the Nasdaq. It didn't make much sense to me at the time. I'm wondering now if this market(specifically the Naz) has more distribution in it the past month than IBD is stating. I believe the count was at three or four before the followthrough, and we've had at least two since then. I agree with a ton of what you say most times, but I'm just wondering what you thought and trying to make sense of this market that looks pretty bad to me - I know I am seeing a lot of ugly charts technically after today. Thanks for your thoughts.

Anonymous said...

Hey Josh, quick question. IONA looks like a great pick. I like the bullish trend, and the previous gap in Feburary. Seems like there is support at $3.80. The stock just bounced from a $3.50 level. The 20 day MA signals a bullish trend. I am just whondering if you use these steps in figuring out a good stock like this? Also, in my analization of this stock was I right on target or I missed out some parts?

Thanks for the blog!! I read it everyday and enjoy everything you write.

Joshua_NControl said...

I agree with you about the ugly charts. About the distribution days and being confused, I agree with you. It was a bad follow-through and the churning on the indexes does appear to be more selling than buying.

But you can not call those days churning until you actually breakdown. Only in hindsight do we know it was actually churning. There have been many times when people thought the markets were churning in 1994 and it went much much much higher.

So even though the markets are acting rough, charts starting to get a bit ugly, and the evident possible churning, I still can't get bearish until I am selling a ton of my stocks.

Right now they aren't breaking. Yet. If they will at all.

I wish you continued success. I agreee the markets has a lot of negatives but until the markets actually breakdown I have to keep my bullish bias.

Especially with all these loud bears!

They may not be reading and posting in my blog. But they sure the hell are in the chatrooms. :)

Joshua_NControl said...

IONA--

Your analyis is spot on.

To see how I trade, search "How I scan for my stocks."

It will tell you everything right there.

Great luck and thank you for your extremely nice words. I am flattered.