Saturday, March 04, 2006

Market Ends Week With A Last Hour Reversal; A Good Week, Overall

With Intel being the blame of the day, stocks reversed in the last hour leaving all the major indexes in the red. The Nasdaq was down .4%, the Semiconductor Index 1.6%, SP 500 .1%, SP 600 .3%, SP 400 .3%, Nasdaq 100 .5%, and the Dow Jones closed down .04%

Volume picked up on the Nasdaq, giving the index its second distribution day in the week. The volume on the NYSE was lower, relieving some pressure from the late day selling on the Nasdaq. Decliners beat advancers by a 9 to 7 ratio. But overall most stocks that declined did so quite orderly.

There was plenty of mixed feelings this week among buyers and sellers causing the markets direction to be quite confusing for the majority of traders. Though the markets may seem confusing there is still no broad based selling to worry about yet. As long as the market can shake this recent small selling off and keep rallying all will be fine. However, if we see some more distribution days step up I am afraid we will be in for more sideways action. I would think selling would bring out sideways action instead of a drop, due to the bearishness increasing and the bullishness decreasing for the past seven weeks.

So while there were tons of negatives, the market didn't crack. That can only be taken as bullish for stocks. Speaking of stocks--almost all of my longs had normal pullbacks on Friday and continue to act healthy (except for NOVL!)

Stay motivated, disciplined, and alert in this kind of market environment. It can be draining, confusing, and frustrating at times but the only way to plow through is by doing the former so to cope with the latter.

See you on Monday!

New Swing Longs: NEWP SSW NERX SIM

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market: PAY-40% CRDN-77% BLD-34% TMI-26% PNRG-28% HEIA-34% GRS-116% TRCI CBG-97% OXPS-83% NGPS WIRE-134% EFII STX-33% IHS-28% RSTI-33% NNDS-25% ORA-69% FFIV KEX ADBE ICTG-64% TRAD-63% GOL-66% NVDA-64% MSCC-72% CKCM BEAS VLG SLW-102% SCHK-25% SLAB COGO ECLP IKAN-37% DRH MMK-25% FWLT-68% ALTU SEED PEC AKS BWNG-78% RNAI-51% HOMS-36% NENG SILC-132% MNG-133% JDSU-54% TSCM-69% RBAK-210% GNBT-96% TGE NTO-36% ACTG-30% TWTC-97% EFJI GNA CNXT-50% RADS CONR VTSS IED-81% SMSI AMKR-27% AKN TRO BGO-42% AUY-102% STTS STAA ENMC AX CVO-71% UBS NVAX CHRD PANL HSKA-25% BVX SWW

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: MLP FNET HEB LVLT ACUS LNUX ALA PT GSOL

Disaster Of The Day: NOVL--This sucked. This chart was so so so pretty. This really is disappointing. Selling remaining 80% stake at a 7% gain. The 7% gain was a 29% gain the day before.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I see a lot of indexes up against resistance and a lot of nervous market participants, like me unfortunately.

The thing that haunted me the most about friday was seeing the qqqq up to 42 and not selling the tech position I want to get out of. Of course the market reversed hard and dragged OPWV down with it.

When you see the indexes up against big time resistance and you have a chance to get rid of the stocks you're dying to unload- just sell, and if you miss the big breakout, there will be plenty of opportunities.

Josh- Im looking to sell out of any concentrated positions and start approaching the market like you and the Rev. Im tired of overtrading.

Elliot
Corvallis,OR

Market Speculator said...

There is definitely churning in the market. We need the big guys to step up to the plate and start buying stocks...preferably all the ones we own :).

While Josh is enjoying mid-80s and a slight trade...I'm buddled up enjoying single digit wind chills!


Mahalo!!!

Joshua_NControl said...

God bless you, Market speculator.

You are a better man than me. I can not even get into the ocean water on the north shore in January and February because it is "too cold."

Worse than that, you know it is cold where I live when you turn OFF the a/c.

The weather is nice today but the south swell that arived today didnt pack much punch so I am enjoying the weather by staying indoors. LOL.

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.

Market Speculator said...

I really envy Josh...keeping himself warm inside while a false south swell came in.

Ha-ha!!!

Get some good poke!

Josh what side of the island are you?

Joshua_NControl said...

I live on the west side of the island. But I am going to me moving into my gf's house soon. She lives on central Maui.

The sucky thing about that is the north shore waves are too big for me, most of the time, during the winter. So that is no good. And the south shore will be a 45 minute drive each way, during the summer.

I know it sounds like I am complaining...because I am. The south shore "was" in my backyard and the upper west side's north shore was just 10 minutes away.

Oh well, I love my gf and it is time to make the big move.

With this move I will be able to setup my "war room." I have not had a professional trader setup in over 6 years.

My girlfriend and trading are more important than surfing!

Poke = disgusting
Panko Crusted Ahi = Delicious!

Keep warm, speculator :-)

Time to turn on the a/c again.

Anonymous said...

Man oh man I have to get out to Hawaii.. I need to figure out the best way to do it.

Elliot

Positive mention of TRX Tronox in Barron's this weekend in the cover story on spinoffs. I think Rev owns TRX- do you? I have been following it for a while, but I have not gotten long. The chart looks strong, what do you think?

"Tronox is the third-largest producer of titanium dioxide, a pigment used to whiten paints and other products. Kerr-McGee (KMG) took 43% of Tronox public in November at $14 a share and plans to spin off the remainder to Kerr-McGee holders by the end of this month.

Tronox, whose shares now change hands around 15, appeals to Minichiello, who argues that it trades at a sizable discount to other makers of specialty chemicals. "It's undervalued, based on fundamentals, and it would be a great bolt-on acquisition for a larger specialty-chemicals company," he says. The equity market value is $600 million, and the company has $500 million of net debt.

Minichiello figures that Tronox trades at an enterprise value -- market value plus net debt -- of just five times 2005 pre-tax cash flow of $233 million, versus an average of about eight for other specialty chemical companies. And this year's cash flow is apt to be higher than 2005's. Tronox is valued at 12 times estimated 2006 earnings of $1.25 a share. The outlook for titanium-dioxide producers looks good, with strong current demand and no new plants scheduled to come on-stream until 2010. Minichiello figures Tronox is worth about 25 a share."

Market Speculator said...

Josh...

Moving up country???

Question is, will you be dealing with all the bike riders coming down from Haleakula (sp?)???

I can't believe you don't like POKE!!! Man, that stuff is great. Ohno is my wife's favorite fish...

You must live near my in-laws...they live in Maui Meadows...I probably won't make it out there until '07.

BTW Josh, going to be mid-60's here next weekend...I'll be outside enjoying that!!!

Best of luck to the week!