Thursday, March 30, 2006

Markets Reverse From Early Morning Gains, Closing Mixed On Mixed Volume; A Good Day Of Consolidation After Yesterday's Gains.

The markets didn't do much today as it took the day to consolidate gains from yesterday's strong move. The consolidation today and inability to give back much of the gains shows that the bulls are in no hurry to sell after a big uptick. However, what you heard from the media bloodhounds was that stocks didn't keep on going up because of inflation scares. Whatever they can do to spin it negatively, they will do.

The Nasdaq rose .1%, Nasdaq 1oo .3%, the SP 400 was flat, and the DJ, SP 600, and SP 500 fell between .1 to .6%. Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and slightly higher on the NYSE, according to my TCNet charts. IBD has volume lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Whatever. It doesn't matter. The volume change is so tiny it is irrelevant. Breadth was negative on both exchanges with decliners beating advancers 9-7 on the NYSE and 8-7 on the Nasdaq.

Gold hit 25 year highs today and Silver hit 23 year highs. By taking a look at the Gold longs in my portfolio you will see that they have been very good to me: ERS GRS GNA SIM KGC AUY. At the same time silver stocks have started to show up and breakout the past two months: AKS MT ZEUS. This shows that there is still plenty of strength left in this leading sector.

This positive action in Gold, Tech stocks, and my personal holdings today show that underneath the averages today was a very positive day even with the negative breadth. It is obvious that the Tech rotation has played out somewhat and is still playing out. That action along with old leaders still leading show how strong this market is currently. Just take a look at all the Telecom, Internet, Computer stock charts hitting new highs.

Like I said yesterday and RevShark said today, there are a lot of traders that simply think this is an End-Of-Quarter markup that will simply fail. The problem with that theory is that there are too many beautiful or nice charts out there. EOQ markups don't deal with a wide variety of stocks. It deals with the stocks that are favored by top funds. It is the stocks that they have to buy to make their portfolio look good. If only a few stocks were causing the indexes to rise and more ugly charts existed out there, I might say that "yes, this is a markup." But I can not. Not with all the nice charts I have.

It is Thursday night. That can only mean one thing. Panko Crusted Ahi at Sansei Restaurant in Napili. Delicious!!

Have a great Friday!

New Swing Longs: AVII GISX -- To learn more about these longs go to Investors Paradise and scroll down to Josh and go to 'longs.'

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): LPSN SMSI-54 CYBS NTES STX-25 WIRE-129 ERS-273 CTXS-40 NMR-38 BWLD ATHR-122 SCHK-40 SAY-37 ASF-212 VIMC-84 NTAP KNXA-57 KDN BOOM-405 ILSE CIB-45 UVN KEX-33 UIC-50 PETS-134 MDCC-41 NVDA-91 DECK FRGB NGPS ARS-58 VTS ROK SEAB LTM FFIV-26 CLZR-60 IVAC-33 CBG-121 CVO-82 SBAC-41 PNRG-60 MMK-50 IONA NVAX-80 GRS-111 GBN-37 AKS-33 MERX-27 MTU DRH ARXX BKHM-68 KGC-42 EGO AGT-27 MSPD-40 SWW-27 NXG-69 BFT STTS PPCO WTSLA LWSN DB TMTA ING-25 AUY-103 QUIK EVST-65 CDE-37 GEMS BGO-37 UBS SA ECIL MNG-142 AIX TFR-85 SIM-32 CTEC LMLP-25 SF

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: PPHM GAN

Big Winners I Am Selling: CRDN--39% gain

Big Winners Selling Partial: MFLX--196% gain

Another Perfect Sell Example Of A Current Long: TXI--7% gain


Anonymous said...

Hi Josh:

Do you realize you're building up quite a "Bird Flu" portfolio? Some are just on the radar, but so is the Bird Flu.


Charts and news events meet in mind meld.

"A. FRIEND" of your BLOG

Joshua_NControl said...

That should tell us something about the bird flu. I guess this is the real deal!

I am not worried at all. But it is interesting that the whole sector is moving. You left off two big winners: VRTX GNBT

Anonymous said...

Thoughts on HOM?

Anonymous said...


I got into LNUX today around 4.30 and was wondering how you would set a stop loss here. I have it around 4.25, a little below the breakout point from today. With a low-priced, explosive stock like this, do you give it more room or is that a good stop point? thanks.

Joshua_NControl said...

HOM: it is fine. I am not selling any. Someone came in and supported this stock hard core today.

Joshua_NControl said...

LNUX: You will want to have a couple of different stop levels due to the volatility in it. Your stop is dangerously too tight. And the breakout you are looking at is on too short of a time frame for the potential move in this stock. I expect a possible 200% gain, therefore a cut loss at 4.25 is a bit odd. I have bought LNUX at 4 and 4.15. My cut losses are 3.30 and 3.60. But remember LNUX represents less than 1% of my portfolio.

Great luck out there!