It was a session devoted to the Fed and the minutes. The minutes caused some intraday volatility but by the end of the day all the indexes were in the green and had recovered some of the yesterday's selloff.
The SP 500 led the way with a .81% gain, followed by the DJIA and the Nasdaq both increasing around .65%. The big winner was the SP 600 leading with a 1.3% gain.
Volume was higher across the board and breadth was positive by around a 2-to-1 margin. This is a positive sign considering how much damage occured on Tuesday. However, the upside of today's rally and the breadth was much weaker than the downside yesterday.
Today was a good day, overall and the fact that the FOMC minutes did not throw us into the red and keep us there, I guess, can be taken as another positive. Another positive is the fact we are holding the recent lows from the last downtrend.
The divergence I am seeing in the internals refers to the amount of stocks making new 52-week lows. As the indexes flirted with the downtrend's lows yesterday I noticed that new 52-week lows on stocks did not expand. They actually contracted by a good amount. This is positive divergence and signals that the oversold bounce is still alive and could quite work itself out. For easy viewing go to Helene Meisler's article on realmoney.com.
However, the big trends are all down and the Nasdaq is still under the 200 dma so there is still NOTHING to get too excited about. I don't expect anything but a continued oversold bounce before the downside reaserts its ugly head.
Have a great night and I shall be on Investors Paradise tomorrow! Aloha!
New Swing Longs: CXG RNST--for more info go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: MNST
Longs Outperforming Market: SMDI-131 SPSX-65 COGO-88 CBG-107 WIRE-159 CTCI BWP KDN IHS-36 HEIA-30 BGC-77 KEX-49 RSTI-36 CXW AKAM-96 SHFL HSR RATE-161 STRL-58 EAGL-60 TTES-51 KEYS-26 SMSI-71 CTXS-43 AOB PCLN ICTG-89 CBEY OPTV HWAY KNOL-133 LCC-127 PWR BGO-66 PKE IT-33 Q-54 SYKE SWW-43 GGI ARI AXE-33 DIS CVO-117 UVN ECLG-67 HNZ PAY-52 SMF-23 SBIT PROG MEND GISX CTEC NAII
Shorts Outperforming Market: NUE NVT BPFH CG
Stocks On Radar Screen: NTGR SYNT FCFS EGOV CAPB FORR
Wednesday, May 31, 2006
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
Market Continues To Selloff, With Volume Picking Up In The Final Hour; Don't Be A Hero Out There!
Stocks proved, once again, why it is silly to try to call a bottom. The bottom callers and the oversold bounce bulls were given a nasty surprise today. The SP 600 led the way to the downside dropping 2.4%, followed by the Nasdaq's 2.06% drop, followed by the SP's 1.59% decline and the DJIA's 1.63% decline. What made this selloff so bad today is that the trend was a nice steady pace down all the way into the close. Not to mention the follow through of the downside to the after-hours future market.
The drop came on higher volume. However, this was comparing volume stats to the pre-holiday trading Friday. So it is hard to call this a distribution day but since the selloff was so intense I think it is safe to go ahead and call it one.
The breadth was terrible also with decliners trouncing advancers by a 3-to-1 ratio. Today's action was very negative.
It is obvious traders are very discouraged and are trying their best to come up with an answer for this selling. We, however, do not need an answer. All we need to know is the big boys are selling and we need to step aside, for now.
The positives to look at on a day like this is that for us to have a really good tradeable bounce we needed to retest the lows. So far it looks like that will not be a problem. And you can not say their is irrational exuberance in the bull camp. Traders are getting pretty darn negative. And, finally, the rally attempt is still in tact until one of the indexes goes below last weeks lows.
The best thing, once again, is to stay calm and keep a high level of cash on hand for the next rally that WILL come around again. Trust me, the more cash you keep now the more of that money you can put to work when stocks are ready to make those 100% plus moves again. Now is not that time. Three out of four stocks follow the markets trend. That trend is very very down on all time frames.
New Swing Longs: KHDH--for more info on longs/shorts go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NUE STLD VTV RS ATI MRK EXBD ERIE
Longs Outperforming Market: FSTR JOBS-30 BWP TTES-50 WDHD AOB ASGN-82 VLG TVIA-32 KNOL-113 GISX
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY NVT CRXL SWC JOYG PNY BPFH USG ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM CE DB ILF AMAT FCX IEV IYM CBSH BUCY EWZ CG RF
Stocks On Radar Screen: SVL
The drop came on higher volume. However, this was comparing volume stats to the pre-holiday trading Friday. So it is hard to call this a distribution day but since the selloff was so intense I think it is safe to go ahead and call it one.
The breadth was terrible also with decliners trouncing advancers by a 3-to-1 ratio. Today's action was very negative.
It is obvious traders are very discouraged and are trying their best to come up with an answer for this selling. We, however, do not need an answer. All we need to know is the big boys are selling and we need to step aside, for now.
The positives to look at on a day like this is that for us to have a really good tradeable bounce we needed to retest the lows. So far it looks like that will not be a problem. And you can not say their is irrational exuberance in the bull camp. Traders are getting pretty darn negative. And, finally, the rally attempt is still in tact until one of the indexes goes below last weeks lows.
The best thing, once again, is to stay calm and keep a high level of cash on hand for the next rally that WILL come around again. Trust me, the more cash you keep now the more of that money you can put to work when stocks are ready to make those 100% plus moves again. Now is not that time. Three out of four stocks follow the markets trend. That trend is very very down on all time frames.
New Swing Longs: KHDH--for more info on longs/shorts go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NUE STLD VTV RS ATI MRK EXBD ERIE
Longs Outperforming Market: FSTR JOBS-30 BWP TTES-50 WDHD AOB ASGN-82 VLG TVIA-32 KNOL-113 GISX
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY NVT CRXL SWC JOYG PNY BPFH USG ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM CE DB ILF AMAT FCX IEV IYM CBSH BUCY EWZ CG RF
Stocks On Radar Screen: SVL
Sunday, May 28, 2006
Have A Great Memorial Day Weekend; Don't Forget Our Veterans Who Made This Country What It Is Today. God Bless Them All.
No need to post any commentary on Friday's action. It is useless and a waste of time analyzing a pre-holiday weekend trading session.
New Swing Longs: RAE HGR PROG--for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: COGO-94 RATE-166 LMIA-116 WIRE-167 GIGM-193 CBG-105 ICTG-89 SMDI-146 ACTG-84 TSCM-144 LCC-126 CVO-116 KNOL-110 PNRG-50 TTES-48 STRL-67 RSTI-39 PCLN AOB TGE SPSX-67 SMSI-73 ATHR-78 BWP VTS HEIA-29 IVAC PKE BAM-32 IHS-34 CXW HSR VLG AXE-34 SBIT SHFL TZOO JOBS-27 FSTR WDHD LYV TVIA-29 ISV-63 PRKR FVE OPTV SWW-41 IT-32 ABI DSGX-56
Shorts Outperforming Market: SIVB ELY CRXL BPFH TMO WSM RF
Stocks On Radar Screen: NEXT
New Swing Longs: RAE HGR PROG--for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: COGO-94 RATE-166 LMIA-116 WIRE-167 GIGM-193 CBG-105 ICTG-89 SMDI-146 ACTG-84 TSCM-144 LCC-126 CVO-116 KNOL-110 PNRG-50 TTES-48 STRL-67 RSTI-39 PCLN AOB TGE SPSX-67 SMSI-73 ATHR-78 BWP VTS HEIA-29 IVAC PKE BAM-32 IHS-34 CXW HSR VLG AXE-34 SBIT SHFL TZOO JOBS-27 FSTR WDHD LYV TVIA-29 ISV-63 PRKR FVE OPTV SWW-41 IT-32 ABI DSGX-56
Shorts Outperforming Market: SIVB ELY CRXL BPFH TMO WSM RF
Stocks On Radar Screen: NEXT
Thursday, May 25, 2006
Dead-Cat Bounce On Lower Volume For Stock Indexes.
It was a great day, overall, if you are a bull, as stocks put in their best performance in over a month. The leader on the upside today was the SP 600 with a 1.7% gain, followed by the Nasdaq's 1.3% gain, the SP 500's 1.1% gain, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average .84% rally.
However, sadly, for the bulls, volume came in much lighter than the day before. You want to see the opposite of that. You would normally like to see higher gains on much higher volume. That would give us a reason to start to expect a good rally from here. Unfortunately, to me, it felt like a dead cat bounce. And all these bounces are HUGE. As IBD noted, since 1990 the 10 biggest price percentage gains on Nasdaq came in the 2000-2002 bear market. That is not an opinion. This is the simple facts. The only kind of facts.
Now, with all that information, we must now look at where we stand. We are in day two of an attempted rally that shows signs that it will not last. What we need to see now is a gain of 1% or more on higher volume within the next 10 days preferably. But like I said before with Food & Beverage, Leisure, Medical, and Hospital stocks becoming the next leaders this will not be a bull market like the one that was launched in March 2003 or even the one we saw in October 2005. You need real leaders in new and exciting industries. We don't have that and with the way the charts look it will be a while before we do.
We are still oversold and can still rally, of course. But with that overhead resistance and downtrending moving averages in most indexes, I doubt we will get anything but an oversold bounce.
Stay disciplined, keep new buys small, don't chase shorts that are in no-mans land, and for God's sake do something fun this weekend!!!! I shall see you on Saturday with Tuesday's commentary.
Have a great Memorial Day weekend!!
New Swing Longs: PCLN HWAY GIS
New Swing Shorts: ASO RF
Longs Outperforming Market: AKAM-102 JOBS-27 STRL-62 CBG-103 BGC-79 BAM-30 WIRE-162 GIGM-187 AOB TZOO KEX-46 IVAC LMIA-107 SBIT TFR-99 AXE-33 ASGN-83 IHS-33 RATE-150 COGO-73 WEBX EAGL-64 PKE RAIL-52 ATHR-75 CTXS-50 MORN SHFL CXW TGE DSGX-55 CTCI SMSI-70 PSPT CVO-112 ECLG-75 SMDI-146 SYKE Q CBIZ HNZ
Shorts Outperforming Market: JOYG BUCY AMH WSM AMAT
Stocks On Radar Screen: KAI NTSC LTS
Why I Hate Shorting: SGY--16% punch in the face.
However, sadly, for the bulls, volume came in much lighter than the day before. You want to see the opposite of that. You would normally like to see higher gains on much higher volume. That would give us a reason to start to expect a good rally from here. Unfortunately, to me, it felt like a dead cat bounce. And all these bounces are HUGE. As IBD noted, since 1990 the 10 biggest price percentage gains on Nasdaq came in the 2000-2002 bear market. That is not an opinion. This is the simple facts. The only kind of facts.
Now, with all that information, we must now look at where we stand. We are in day two of an attempted rally that shows signs that it will not last. What we need to see now is a gain of 1% or more on higher volume within the next 10 days preferably. But like I said before with Food & Beverage, Leisure, Medical, and Hospital stocks becoming the next leaders this will not be a bull market like the one that was launched in March 2003 or even the one we saw in October 2005. You need real leaders in new and exciting industries. We don't have that and with the way the charts look it will be a while before we do.
We are still oversold and can still rally, of course. But with that overhead resistance and downtrending moving averages in most indexes, I doubt we will get anything but an oversold bounce.
Stay disciplined, keep new buys small, don't chase shorts that are in no-mans land, and for God's sake do something fun this weekend!!!! I shall see you on Saturday with Tuesday's commentary.
Have a great Memorial Day weekend!!
New Swing Longs: PCLN HWAY GIS
New Swing Shorts: ASO RF
Longs Outperforming Market: AKAM-102 JOBS-27 STRL-62 CBG-103 BGC-79 BAM-30 WIRE-162 GIGM-187 AOB TZOO KEX-46 IVAC LMIA-107 SBIT TFR-99 AXE-33 ASGN-83 IHS-33 RATE-150 COGO-73 WEBX EAGL-64 PKE RAIL-52 ATHR-75 CTXS-50 MORN SHFL CXW TGE DSGX-55 CTCI SMSI-70 PSPT CVO-112 ECLG-75 SMDI-146 SYKE Q CBIZ HNZ
Shorts Outperforming Market: JOYG BUCY AMH WSM AMAT
Stocks On Radar Screen: KAI NTSC LTS
Why I Hate Shorting: SGY--16% punch in the face.
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
Oversold Bounce Finally Arives; Don't Be Too Trigger Happy.
No commentary tonight as I continue to do the tourist thing with friends in town. Great luck today and I shall see you on Friday!! I will be available via Investors Paradise
New Swing Longs: DPM OPTV CBIZ
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: STRL-53 LRCX-35 WEBX IHS-31 GIGM-177 IGTG-91 PKE ASGN-80 CTXS-49 GGI CBEY BWP ABI SPSX-56 PAY-55 Q-47 TMG SYKE CVO-103 SMDI-140 IT-31 ACTG-64 TVIA ILA KNOL-101 SMF MEND CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market:
Stocks On Radar Screen: PCLN BIDU PSS PPHM LUM LXU
New Swing Longs: DPM OPTV CBIZ
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: STRL-53 LRCX-35 WEBX IHS-31 GIGM-177 IGTG-91 PKE ASGN-80 CTXS-49 GGI CBEY BWP ABI SPSX-56 PAY-55 Q-47 TMG SYKE CVO-103 SMDI-140 IT-31 ACTG-64 TVIA ILA KNOL-101 SMF MEND CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market:
Stocks On Radar Screen: PCLN BIDU PSS PPHM LUM LXU
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Oversold Bounce Gets Sold Hard In The Final Hour Of Trading.
A very nice oversold bounce rally was shaping up, until the final hour approached. When that now-dreaded final hour came, big funds came in and punished stocks HARD.
The drubbing left the Nasdaq with a .65% loss, the SP 500 with a .43% loss, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a .24% loss. The wildest drubbing came to the SOX index. Its wild swing went from a rally of 1.4% on the day to a 1.6% loss at the end of the day. Nasty reversal.
Volume came in lower than the day before on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, volume was still above average on the Nasdaq and with the whole market selling off in the final hour, I doubt the lower volume consoles anyone. Breadth was horrible with decliners over advancers by a 9-to-7 margin on both exchanges.
The type of action we saw today shows just how weak this market is. On any rally, the sellers are coming out. This time is indeed different. We just did not see this kind of pickup in selling right after an oversold rally at anytime during the past year. This higher open followed by a last hour swoon fest is another sign of a very weak market that should not be bottom fished.
If you look at a weekly chart of the NYSE and the Nasdaq and count how many distribution weeks there are to accumulation weeks, you can see that as we rallied all year long big boys were selling on the upticks. They dumped on the retail who only recently decided to embrace the three year old bull market. Greedy traders, tricks are for Wall Street analyst.
All of these distribution weeks should just be ONE MORE sign that this market should be avoided. If the rally we saw this year was being systematically sold into and now we are breaking below key support and moving averages on the indexes, just tell me why you should go looking for bargains here? Where does it say that we are going to rally now. Can't we go sideways for months? Yes, we can. And we just might. This could be a long summer.
The only thing positive out there is that sentiment is getting pretty negative again and we are extremely oversold. But how many times have I told you, you can get more oversold in a selloff and more overbought in a rally the entire way down or up. Nobody and nothing says we have to rally tomorrow. So make sure you keep cash high and new buys extremely small, if you must plunge.
I shall see you tomorrow. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: STX LLL HDB EFD PFS BJS TRAK KOMG
Longs Outperforming Market: HSR TTES-47 PNRG-51 WIRE-164 STRL-48 RATE-152 BGC-73 ATHR-76 KEX-48 IVAC EAGL-65 TGE CXW TFR-95 TZOO FSTR BAM-27 HOM-124 CTXS-49 GIGM-174 JOBS-25 VIMC-75 LYV ISV-55 PRVT HNZ TVIA SMSI-56 PAY-51 SYKE CVO-99 SMF SNTO ABI IT-29 SPSX-51 DSGX-56 CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: AMAT SIVB ELY NVT AMH DIA WSM PNY BPFH SFD CBSH EWZ ILF
Stocks On Radar Screen: MGPI LPMA KVHI
The drubbing left the Nasdaq with a .65% loss, the SP 500 with a .43% loss, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a .24% loss. The wildest drubbing came to the SOX index. Its wild swing went from a rally of 1.4% on the day to a 1.6% loss at the end of the day. Nasty reversal.
Volume came in lower than the day before on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, volume was still above average on the Nasdaq and with the whole market selling off in the final hour, I doubt the lower volume consoles anyone. Breadth was horrible with decliners over advancers by a 9-to-7 margin on both exchanges.
The type of action we saw today shows just how weak this market is. On any rally, the sellers are coming out. This time is indeed different. We just did not see this kind of pickup in selling right after an oversold rally at anytime during the past year. This higher open followed by a last hour swoon fest is another sign of a very weak market that should not be bottom fished.
If you look at a weekly chart of the NYSE and the Nasdaq and count how many distribution weeks there are to accumulation weeks, you can see that as we rallied all year long big boys were selling on the upticks. They dumped on the retail who only recently decided to embrace the three year old bull market. Greedy traders, tricks are for Wall Street analyst.
All of these distribution weeks should just be ONE MORE sign that this market should be avoided. If the rally we saw this year was being systematically sold into and now we are breaking below key support and moving averages on the indexes, just tell me why you should go looking for bargains here? Where does it say that we are going to rally now. Can't we go sideways for months? Yes, we can. And we just might. This could be a long summer.
The only thing positive out there is that sentiment is getting pretty negative again and we are extremely oversold. But how many times have I told you, you can get more oversold in a selloff and more overbought in a rally the entire way down or up. Nobody and nothing says we have to rally tomorrow. So make sure you keep cash high and new buys extremely small, if you must plunge.
I shall see you tomorrow. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: STX LLL HDB EFD PFS BJS TRAK KOMG
Longs Outperforming Market: HSR TTES-47 PNRG-51 WIRE-164 STRL-48 RATE-152 BGC-73 ATHR-76 KEX-48 IVAC EAGL-65 TGE CXW TFR-95 TZOO FSTR BAM-27 HOM-124 CTXS-49 GIGM-174 JOBS-25 VIMC-75 LYV ISV-55 PRVT HNZ TVIA SMSI-56 PAY-51 SYKE CVO-99 SMF SNTO ABI IT-29 SPSX-51 DSGX-56 CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: AMAT SIVB ELY NVT AMH DIA WSM PNY BPFH SFD CBSH EWZ ILF
Stocks On Radar Screen: MGPI LPMA KVHI
Monday, May 22, 2006
Besides Becoming More Oversold, Nothing Has Changed.
Stocks Continued the selloff, after a mid-day bounce attempt, that started ten days ago, with the help of Fed President Richard Fisher indicating more innings are needed. The Nasdaq led to the downside with a 1% decline. This made it nine down days out of the last ten for the Nasdaq. Other markets did not fair much better, with the SP 400 down .78%, 600 down .73%, the SP 500 down .4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling .17%. Even worse the old leaders in the Steel sector took a 6% thrashing, the IBD 100 fell 2.7%, and the SOX index fell 4.2%. Leading stocks got nailed again!
Volume was lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq but don't take any comfort in that. The rally attempt started last Friday is now officially killed. The indexes undercut the lows of day 1's attempted rally. With that breadth was 2-to-1 negative on the Nasdaq and the NYSE.
The market is oversold but still very sick. World markets are selling off everywhere. This means that this is not the time to buy. If you have every major market in the world falling, I think that it is a safe bet to keep cash on the sidelines.
This oversold bounce failed, the next one might to. This much momentum to the downside can last as long as it does to the upside. When we will bounce no one knows and then, after that, we will more than likely find trapped longs ready to sell to get out of their sinking "investments."
With the Nasdaq trending below its 50 and 200 dma, it is very dangerous to initiate any new positions and the wise thing for the disciplined trader to do is nothing until the markets get a follow through day from an attempted rally attempt. We are on day zero.
This selling will stop but when? Who knows! Eventually it will all be over and we will have a nice tradeable bounce. That still probably will not be the kind of market that has TONS of leaders run out of the gate producing 100% winners left and right but anything other than this is good enough for me.
Stay disciplined. See you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: SBIT
New Swing Shorts: CG
Longs Outperforming Market: HOM-123 COGO-81 FSTR AXE-34 HSR CXW GGI SHFL RBAK-240 IT-28 CVO-95 OMCL PAY-46 AMPL
Shorts Outperforming Market: IEV IYM SGY BUCY SIVB ELY SWC EWZ RTP JOYG CRXL NVT SFD USG ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM CE DB ILF AMAT FCX
Stocks On Radar Screen: ADEP KWD MAIN
Last Chance To Lock-In Big Profits: GIGM
Volume was lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq but don't take any comfort in that. The rally attempt started last Friday is now officially killed. The indexes undercut the lows of day 1's attempted rally. With that breadth was 2-to-1 negative on the Nasdaq and the NYSE.
The market is oversold but still very sick. World markets are selling off everywhere. This means that this is not the time to buy. If you have every major market in the world falling, I think that it is a safe bet to keep cash on the sidelines.
This oversold bounce failed, the next one might to. This much momentum to the downside can last as long as it does to the upside. When we will bounce no one knows and then, after that, we will more than likely find trapped longs ready to sell to get out of their sinking "investments."
With the Nasdaq trending below its 50 and 200 dma, it is very dangerous to initiate any new positions and the wise thing for the disciplined trader to do is nothing until the markets get a follow through day from an attempted rally attempt. We are on day zero.
This selling will stop but when? Who knows! Eventually it will all be over and we will have a nice tradeable bounce. That still probably will not be the kind of market that has TONS of leaders run out of the gate producing 100% winners left and right but anything other than this is good enough for me.
Stay disciplined. See you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: SBIT
New Swing Shorts: CG
Longs Outperforming Market: HOM-123 COGO-81 FSTR AXE-34 HSR CXW GGI SHFL RBAK-240 IT-28 CVO-95 OMCL PAY-46 AMPL
Shorts Outperforming Market: IEV IYM SGY BUCY SIVB ELY SWC EWZ RTP JOYG CRXL NVT SFD USG ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM CE DB ILF AMAT FCX
Stocks On Radar Screen: ADEP KWD MAIN
Last Chance To Lock-In Big Profits: GIGM
Saturday, May 20, 2006
Finally, Some Relief; Markets Try To Find Some Support, Bouncing On Higher Volume.
After eight straight days downs for the Nasdaq and seven down out of eight down for the SP 500, the market gave us a welcome sigh of relief, Friday.
The Nasdaq fell early but found support intraday and rebounded the best of all the indexes with a .62% gain. The SP 600 rose .44%, the SP 500 rose .41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose .14%.
Volume was higher on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, this is not an all clear signal to start buying stocks as the indexes have tons of overhead resistance to fight off. The SP 500 found support at the 200 dma but is still solidly below the 50 dma. The Nasdaq is below both lines of support. Those lines are now lines of resistance. The trend is down on all time frames on the Nasdaq so this is NOT the time to be buying stocks.
What we need to see is if we get a follow-through day on the third up-day of this rally attempt that started on Friday. This should happen within the next ten days. However, even if we follow-through we will still need to get above the 50 and 200 dma to get bullish on the Nasdaq again. If we start to selloff again and undercut the lows on Friday, you can erase that accumulation day on Friday and reset the count.
That along with the Nasdaq's 50 dma now trending down just doesn't put the odds in our favor of jumping into stocks and buying the en masse on the next uptick.
Leading stocks also support this. Many of the top stocks in top industries have come crashing down--all of them. And as for new leading stocks replacing these stocks that have gone away...nothing. There isn't a solid rotation going on, except some money starting to go into Food, Tobacco, Medical, Leisure, and Retail-Dept Stores. Last time I checked there weren't many leading stocks from those groups and those groups normally outperform in poor market enviornments.This is not a market, I reiterate, to be bullish on in the intermediate to short term.
I mean the II Survey of Newsletter writers even showed bulls increasing and bears decreasing as the market fell. That should have gone the other way! Period. No, if's, and's, or butt's about it.
So even if we get a follow-through in the next ten days, I believe it would be a simple traders market. The best stocks in best industries could give us some gains. But as I mentioned before the big winners do not come from these trading follow-throughs.
BUT....that is far away from now. Now, I am just guessing at the future. But isn't that what people want? Even if they do, they also know the facts now and the facts show that this market has a lot of upside resistance to battle through. So, as I keep saying, keep the cash heavy and keep new buys very small. If you are brand new, don't try shorting just yet. It is a very complex and very different kind of game than just putting a market buy order in on a new long.
Stay alert. If you have taken some hits, don't feel bad. My account is well off the highs earlier in the month. But the most important thing is I preserved most of the big gains in my big winners before the selloff happened. That is enough to declare victory for me, even though I have lost money the past two weeks. It could have been a lot worse.
As long as you have cash still you have another chance. That is all we need to succeed. Don't get upset at the stock market for what it has done to you. It hasn't done anything to you. You did it to yourself. It is time to now review what we did wrong, what signs we missed, and what signs we ignored for our own greedy pleasure. I will see you in Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: GGI CXW WEBX AMD -- for more info on longs go to Joshua Hayes on Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: SSL
Shorts Watching For Entry: TTM IPS GGB VTI GXP
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain after purchase: JOBS-33 RATE-150 AKAM-114 COGO-72 HSR HOM-108 PKE RSTI-39 TZOO KEX-48 LRCX-41 BGC-74 CTXS-52 TGE IHS-30 NMR-33 SNDK BAM-29 WDHD ATHR-85 MTU CYMI CBEY BWP AOM RBAK-228 KNOL-119 SWW-42 SYKE PAY-46 PWR SMDI-147 KNXA-68 DIS CVO-92 DCEL MNST-52 HNZ LCC-131 UVN REFR PSPT AXE-32 CPTS-25 SWIR-38 NAVI MORN
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY CRXL SWC JOYG BPFH ASA AMH CLF FCX ILF IYM CBSH SGY BUCY EWZ RTP
The Nasdaq fell early but found support intraday and rebounded the best of all the indexes with a .62% gain. The SP 600 rose .44%, the SP 500 rose .41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose .14%.
Volume was higher on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, this is not an all clear signal to start buying stocks as the indexes have tons of overhead resistance to fight off. The SP 500 found support at the 200 dma but is still solidly below the 50 dma. The Nasdaq is below both lines of support. Those lines are now lines of resistance. The trend is down on all time frames on the Nasdaq so this is NOT the time to be buying stocks.
What we need to see is if we get a follow-through day on the third up-day of this rally attempt that started on Friday. This should happen within the next ten days. However, even if we follow-through we will still need to get above the 50 and 200 dma to get bullish on the Nasdaq again. If we start to selloff again and undercut the lows on Friday, you can erase that accumulation day on Friday and reset the count.
That along with the Nasdaq's 50 dma now trending down just doesn't put the odds in our favor of jumping into stocks and buying the en masse on the next uptick.
Leading stocks also support this. Many of the top stocks in top industries have come crashing down--all of them. And as for new leading stocks replacing these stocks that have gone away...nothing. There isn't a solid rotation going on, except some money starting to go into Food, Tobacco, Medical, Leisure, and Retail-Dept Stores. Last time I checked there weren't many leading stocks from those groups and those groups normally outperform in poor market enviornments.This is not a market, I reiterate, to be bullish on in the intermediate to short term.
I mean the II Survey of Newsletter writers even showed bulls increasing and bears decreasing as the market fell. That should have gone the other way! Period. No, if's, and's, or butt's about it.
So even if we get a follow-through in the next ten days, I believe it would be a simple traders market. The best stocks in best industries could give us some gains. But as I mentioned before the big winners do not come from these trading follow-throughs.
BUT....that is far away from now. Now, I am just guessing at the future. But isn't that what people want? Even if they do, they also know the facts now and the facts show that this market has a lot of upside resistance to battle through. So, as I keep saying, keep the cash heavy and keep new buys very small. If you are brand new, don't try shorting just yet. It is a very complex and very different kind of game than just putting a market buy order in on a new long.
Stay alert. If you have taken some hits, don't feel bad. My account is well off the highs earlier in the month. But the most important thing is I preserved most of the big gains in my big winners before the selloff happened. That is enough to declare victory for me, even though I have lost money the past two weeks. It could have been a lot worse.
As long as you have cash still you have another chance. That is all we need to succeed. Don't get upset at the stock market for what it has done to you. It hasn't done anything to you. You did it to yourself. It is time to now review what we did wrong, what signs we missed, and what signs we ignored for our own greedy pleasure. I will see you in Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: GGI CXW WEBX AMD -- for more info on longs go to Joshua Hayes on Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: SSL
Shorts Watching For Entry: TTM IPS GGB VTI GXP
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain after purchase: JOBS-33 RATE-150 AKAM-114 COGO-72 HSR HOM-108 PKE RSTI-39 TZOO KEX-48 LRCX-41 BGC-74 CTXS-52 TGE IHS-30 NMR-33 SNDK BAM-29 WDHD ATHR-85 MTU CYMI CBEY BWP AOM RBAK-228 KNOL-119 SWW-42 SYKE PAY-46 PWR SMDI-147 KNXA-68 DIS CVO-92 DCEL MNST-52 HNZ LCC-131 UVN REFR PSPT AXE-32 CPTS-25 SWIR-38 NAVI MORN
Shorts Outperforming Market: ELY CRXL SWC JOYG BPFH ASA AMH CLF FCX ILF IYM CBSH SGY BUCY EWZ RTP
Thursday, May 18, 2006
Stocks Reverse Again, Closing In The Red; Nasdaq 8 Straight Days Down.
Market Commentary Will Not Be Posted For Thursday.
Nothing has changed that I have not talked about the past seven days. Please, re-read or read the previous seven post and you will know exactly where we stand.
All I can add is that there are a LOT of stocks showing up on my short scans that are completely broken and any rally is a short and not a long. This market is going to need a lot of time to fix itself. The lack of longs and complete overload of shorts tells me there is more downside to go, even if we do have a rally at these levels.
New Swing Longs: CBEY -- for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: TTM IEV IYM CBSH NBR SGY BUCY EWZ RTP IPS
Shorts Still Watching For Entry: GGB IIF SSL BLDR TNT VTI
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since purchase: LMIA-127 HOM-101 AKAM-104 CBG-111 TSCM-131 SMDI-141 TFR-109 IVAC COGO-64 ATHR-83 HSR WDHD WF TGE NNDS-37 HEIA-31 LYV VIMC-63 AOM IHS-28 BWP IT-29 SMSI-59 REFR TMG MGLN KNXA-65 ILA DCEL PRVT CPTS-25 NAII MEND
Shorts I'm Holding: SIVB ELY NVT CRXL SWC JOYG PNY BPFH SFD USG ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM CE DB ILF AMAT FCX CHN
Stocks On Radar Screen: CXW PCLN ECMV SCL
Nothing has changed that I have not talked about the past seven days. Please, re-read or read the previous seven post and you will know exactly where we stand.
All I can add is that there are a LOT of stocks showing up on my short scans that are completely broken and any rally is a short and not a long. This market is going to need a lot of time to fix itself. The lack of longs and complete overload of shorts tells me there is more downside to go, even if we do have a rally at these levels.
New Swing Longs: CBEY -- for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: TTM IEV IYM CBSH NBR SGY BUCY EWZ RTP IPS
Shorts Still Watching For Entry: GGB IIF SSL BLDR TNT VTI
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since purchase: LMIA-127 HOM-101 AKAM-104 CBG-111 TSCM-131 SMDI-141 TFR-109 IVAC COGO-64 ATHR-83 HSR WDHD WF TGE NNDS-37 HEIA-31 LYV VIMC-63 AOM IHS-28 BWP IT-29 SMSI-59 REFR TMG MGLN KNXA-65 ILA DCEL PRVT CPTS-25 NAII MEND
Shorts I'm Holding: SIVB ELY NVT CRXL SWC JOYG PNY BPFH SFD USG ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY CLF WSM CE DB ILF AMAT FCX CHN
Stocks On Radar Screen: CXW PCLN ECMV SCL
Wednesday, May 17, 2006
Stocks Continue Correction On HUGE Volume; Seven Down Days In A Row For The Nasdaq.
It was pure carnage out there, today. Nothing escaped alive, or so it seemed, as stocks fell the whole day and did so on extremely heavy volume. The Nasdaq fell 1.5%, the SP 500 fell 1.7%, and the DJIA led the way on the downside with a 1.9% drop.
Volume exploded across the board, nailing every index with a distribution day. As IBD pointed out this makes it seven in last four weeks for the Nasdaq and five in the last four weeks for the NYSE. Breadth was extremely negative, once again, with decliners over advancers by a 4-to-1 margin on the NYSE and 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.
So another down day on terrible breadth with no news to go along with it. That has been the theme since Thursday. There really hasn't been a real hardcore reason the media has given us for this fall. Do you want to hear the reason we are falling? Because big mutual, pension, endowment, and educational fund managers are dumping stocks across the board! There, that is it. If you need to know anything more than that you are wasting your time if you want to make money. Just knowing the facts IS good enough. The facts are the big boys are selling. Period.
The Nasdaq is now below the 200 dma and is officially in a short-term, sub-intermediate term, and intermediate term downtrend. This tells us that the next rally is probably not going to be one that starts a new long sustained rally. There is plenty of overhead resistance and after a three and a half year bull market it is time for a downtrend to start.
Unfortunately, the perma-bears kept most traders on the sidelines until it was too late. Thanks to the schmucks like Barry Ritholtz you missed out on some HUGE winners. At the same time, though, just when you realized how much of an intellectually brilliant moron he was, the market had already ran without you. So for you missing out on the bull market and then buying stocks at the top, you have once again no one else to blame but yourselves and the media.
The media does its best to talk down great economies like the one we have had since March 2003. Especially when a Republican is in office. The left-wing biased media just hates those guys and no matter how awesome the economy is they will always bad talk it. So when you finally realized that the economy was pretty good and that the media was wrong, you were too late.
That is history. It keeps repeating itself. It did this 120 years ago and if we are still around it will do it 120 years from now.
I believe a bounce could be around the corner with the put/call ratio staying so high and the breadth constantly being extremely negative. The oscillators are also reaching oversold territory. However, this bounce, probably will be nothing more than a chance to work off the oversold condition rather than a buyable rally that produces quality stocks that make big moves to the upside.
It was a rough day if you did not heed the warnings of the parabolic charts and the sell signals that almost every stock gave. If you gave up a lot of gains it is best to just take a moment and reflect on your strategy. If you find it too hard to make money now then just sit down and DO NOTHING. No one says you have to trade all the time. Having more money after the downtrend to put to work when the next rally starts is a lot better than trying to short or buy stocks that you don't know how to operate properly.
If you lose money just because you are trying to short since the market is going down and you can't even make money going long stocks you are shooting yourself in the face! Having more cash to use when the next bull market comes is better than losing money!!!!!!!!!! If you have not read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefebvre. DO IT NOW!
Take care and great luck. Don't play with knives.
New Swing Longs: VSF -- for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY MRK GXP CLF WSM CE DB ILF SSL AMAT GGB IIF FCX CHN -- for more info on shorts go to Investors Paradise.
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % increase since purchase: FSTR MORN WIRE-175 TZOO WDHD CTXS-54 SNDK SMSI-53 SWW-36 PMTR-36 RBAK-213 FVE MGLN IT ILA SNTO-34 MEND TFR-108 GISX
Shorts Outperforming Market: JOYG USG BPFH SWC CRXL SIVB ELY
Shorts I Missed: VTI TNT
Stocks On Radar Screen: CXW
Locking In Rest Of Gains: CIB SIM PEIX
Volume exploded across the board, nailing every index with a distribution day. As IBD pointed out this makes it seven in last four weeks for the Nasdaq and five in the last four weeks for the NYSE. Breadth was extremely negative, once again, with decliners over advancers by a 4-to-1 margin on the NYSE and 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.
So another down day on terrible breadth with no news to go along with it. That has been the theme since Thursday. There really hasn't been a real hardcore reason the media has given us for this fall. Do you want to hear the reason we are falling? Because big mutual, pension, endowment, and educational fund managers are dumping stocks across the board! There, that is it. If you need to know anything more than that you are wasting your time if you want to make money. Just knowing the facts IS good enough. The facts are the big boys are selling. Period.
The Nasdaq is now below the 200 dma and is officially in a short-term, sub-intermediate term, and intermediate term downtrend. This tells us that the next rally is probably not going to be one that starts a new long sustained rally. There is plenty of overhead resistance and after a three and a half year bull market it is time for a downtrend to start.
Unfortunately, the perma-bears kept most traders on the sidelines until it was too late. Thanks to the schmucks like Barry Ritholtz you missed out on some HUGE winners. At the same time, though, just when you realized how much of an intellectually brilliant moron he was, the market had already ran without you. So for you missing out on the bull market and then buying stocks at the top, you have once again no one else to blame but yourselves and the media.
The media does its best to talk down great economies like the one we have had since March 2003. Especially when a Republican is in office. The left-wing biased media just hates those guys and no matter how awesome the economy is they will always bad talk it. So when you finally realized that the economy was pretty good and that the media was wrong, you were too late.
That is history. It keeps repeating itself. It did this 120 years ago and if we are still around it will do it 120 years from now.
I believe a bounce could be around the corner with the put/call ratio staying so high and the breadth constantly being extremely negative. The oscillators are also reaching oversold territory. However, this bounce, probably will be nothing more than a chance to work off the oversold condition rather than a buyable rally that produces quality stocks that make big moves to the upside.
It was a rough day if you did not heed the warnings of the parabolic charts and the sell signals that almost every stock gave. If you gave up a lot of gains it is best to just take a moment and reflect on your strategy. If you find it too hard to make money now then just sit down and DO NOTHING. No one says you have to trade all the time. Having more money after the downtrend to put to work when the next rally starts is a lot better than trying to short or buy stocks that you don't know how to operate properly.
If you lose money just because you are trying to short since the market is going down and you can't even make money going long stocks you are shooting yourself in the face! Having more cash to use when the next bull market comes is better than losing money!!!!!!!!!! If you have not read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefebvre. DO IT NOW!
Take care and great luck. Don't play with knives.
New Swing Longs: VSF -- for more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: ASA AMH TMO DIA EWY MRK GXP CLF WSM CE DB ILF SSL AMAT GGB IIF FCX CHN -- for more info on shorts go to Investors Paradise.
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % increase since purchase: FSTR MORN WIRE-175 TZOO WDHD CTXS-54 SNDK SMSI-53 SWW-36 PMTR-36 RBAK-213 FVE MGLN IT ILA SNTO-34 MEND TFR-108 GISX
Shorts Outperforming Market: JOYG USG BPFH SWC CRXL SIVB ELY
Shorts I Missed: VTI TNT
Stocks On Radar Screen: CXW
Locking In Rest Of Gains: CIB SIM PEIX
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Stock Market Indexes Try To Find Support.
Stocks did more of the same thing, today. This time it was just a lot more boring and with a lot less power. Stock market indexes fell across the board with the Nasdaq leading to the downside with a .42% drop. The SP 500 fell .2% and the DJIA fell .08%. The positive divergence was in the IBD 100 and the SP 600; which were both up for the day. Those two indexes rallying today should not be any shocker, considering these two indexes have been taken to the woodshed the past four days.
Volume was mixed with lower volume on the NYSE and higher volume on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq's higher volume gave it another distribution day. However, this one is not very clear since the Nasdaq rallied off the intraday lows and held the 200 daily moving averages. However, it appears that this is just a rest. Most indexes are finding support at the 50 or 200 dma but there is not a lot of clear support as the rallies intraday are on lower volume than the downtrends the past two days.
Advancers beat decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq by slim margins. A positive divergence from the red closes of the indexes. A short-term bounce seems fair here, with the short-term indicators signaling positive divergences.
The NYSE and Dow and holding their 50 DMA's so far. But how long that last I am not sure. The selling is more intense in this pullback and new lows continue to expand to levels even higher than in October. That is a very negative divergence.
The Nasdaq and SP 600 have fallen so far the past four days that it is semi-oversold but not quite oversold yet on the NYSE and Nasdaq Overbought/Oversold oscillator. Which means we could still fall even more from here, without seeing a bounce. So don't try to be a hero and catch falling knives in stocks you really liked because they ran up a lot the past year.
It is a difficult market right now. This is not the kind of market I like investing in. The market will indeed start an uptrend again and we will find many stocks willing to runaway with major profits. For now, however, we are not going to find them. The markets character has changed.
Great luck and don't get to crazy on the short side. And I wouldn't be too forgiving to your weak stocks, if they have slowing or no fundamentals.
Great luck :P I shall see you tomorrow!
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: VTI JOYG PNY BPFH SFD TNT BLDR USG
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since purchase: HOM-103 KNOL-145 LMIA-139 CBG-122 ICTG-103 WIRE-175 BOOM-337 RATE-155 AKAM-104 BTUI-131 TFR-107 IED-107 SPNC-97 ACTG-81 CCI-90 JOBS-44 HSR SHFL SIM RADN LRCX-43 STRL-55 PNRG-58 FWLT-66 TTES-53 BAS RSTI-39 SNDK TGE MORN HEIA-33 BAM-32 BGC-83 AOM STKL-43 CYMI ARS-57 SYKE SMSI-46 DIS ING-29 DRH-25 PMTR-33 UVN AXE-35 CTCI SNTO-29
Shorts Outperforming Market: NVT ELY
Stocks On Radar Screen: ALCO CVN
Volume was mixed with lower volume on the NYSE and higher volume on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq's higher volume gave it another distribution day. However, this one is not very clear since the Nasdaq rallied off the intraday lows and held the 200 daily moving averages. However, it appears that this is just a rest. Most indexes are finding support at the 50 or 200 dma but there is not a lot of clear support as the rallies intraday are on lower volume than the downtrends the past two days.
Advancers beat decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq by slim margins. A positive divergence from the red closes of the indexes. A short-term bounce seems fair here, with the short-term indicators signaling positive divergences.
The NYSE and Dow and holding their 50 DMA's so far. But how long that last I am not sure. The selling is more intense in this pullback and new lows continue to expand to levels even higher than in October. That is a very negative divergence.
The Nasdaq and SP 600 have fallen so far the past four days that it is semi-oversold but not quite oversold yet on the NYSE and Nasdaq Overbought/Oversold oscillator. Which means we could still fall even more from here, without seeing a bounce. So don't try to be a hero and catch falling knives in stocks you really liked because they ran up a lot the past year.
It is a difficult market right now. This is not the kind of market I like investing in. The market will indeed start an uptrend again and we will find many stocks willing to runaway with major profits. For now, however, we are not going to find them. The markets character has changed.
Great luck and don't get to crazy on the short side. And I wouldn't be too forgiving to your weak stocks, if they have slowing or no fundamentals.
Great luck :P I shall see you tomorrow!
New Swing Longs: NONE
New Swing Shorts: VTI JOYG PNY BPFH SFD TNT BLDR USG
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since purchase: HOM-103 KNOL-145 LMIA-139 CBG-122 ICTG-103 WIRE-175 BOOM-337 RATE-155 AKAM-104 BTUI-131 TFR-107 IED-107 SPNC-97 ACTG-81 CCI-90 JOBS-44 HSR SHFL SIM RADN LRCX-43 STRL-55 PNRG-58 FWLT-66 TTES-53 BAS RSTI-39 SNDK TGE MORN HEIA-33 BAM-32 BGC-83 AOM STKL-43 CYMI ARS-57 SYKE SMSI-46 DIS ING-29 DRH-25 PMTR-33 UVN AXE-35 CTCI SNTO-29
Shorts Outperforming Market: NVT ELY
Stocks On Radar Screen: ALCO CVN
Monday, May 15, 2006
Leading Stocks Continue To Take A Pounding; Stock Indexes Finish Mixed On Mixed Volume.
Stocks were pretty much lower throughout the day until a late day reversal helped bring the indexes off their lows and give them a decent short-term oversold bounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led to the upside with a .42% gain, the SP 500 rose .25%, and the Nasdaq lagged with a .23% drop.
Underneath the relative ok performance of the big-cap indexes today, the small-cap stocks and leading stocks did much worse. The SP 600 fell .45% and the IBD 100 index full of leading stocks fell 2.3%. That is just horrible. In three days the IBD 100 has fallen 2.6%, 3.8%, and 2.3%. If that kind of performance in leading stocks doesn't make you want to get cautious and NOT try to catch this falling knife, I don't know what will. It is obvious this pullback is much different than any other pullback we have had since the October lows.
The semi-good news is that the Nasdaq found support at its 200 dma and the SP 600 put in a major intraday reversal. But besides a short-term bounce I just don't see any new leaders out there to take the baton. It seems to me the leading stocks of Medical and Food tells me that the market is in trouble. Oh, yeah, I forgot about all the climax runs, diverging indicators, and everything else that I have been talking about the past three days.
So let's not get too wild about buying this pullback. I think it is best to stay in plenty of cash. And unless you know how to short stocks I don't recommend that either. This isn't a proven secular bear market yet. That will take plenty more time. AND TRUST ME then you will have plenty of time to short plenty of stocks for OK gains. Besides, there are still great longs to buy in the Medical and other sectors that will go up in a bad market. Also I would lock in profits more quickly than last time. Three out of four stocks follow the market.
So we shall see what tomorrow brings. Whatever it is, I will be ready. Like always!
New Swing Longs: FVE PSPT TIII TTG--For more info on longs and shorts, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: CRXL SWC--on a bounce to the 50dma. If no bounce, there is no short.
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since purchase: LMIA-130 ACR-115 ICTG-96 HOM-83 NVDA-78 JOBS-38 COGO-68 MTU MORN SHFL NMR-40 AAPL LYV AOB TVIA TMG SPSX-56 ABI SBAC-49 USEG HNZ DIS NAII SNTO-28
Shorts Outperforming Market: NVT ELY
Stocks On Radar Screen: AE PCLN
Selling All: Gold stocks
Underneath the relative ok performance of the big-cap indexes today, the small-cap stocks and leading stocks did much worse. The SP 600 fell .45% and the IBD 100 index full of leading stocks fell 2.3%. That is just horrible. In three days the IBD 100 has fallen 2.6%, 3.8%, and 2.3%. If that kind of performance in leading stocks doesn't make you want to get cautious and NOT try to catch this falling knife, I don't know what will. It is obvious this pullback is much different than any other pullback we have had since the October lows.
The semi-good news is that the Nasdaq found support at its 200 dma and the SP 600 put in a major intraday reversal. But besides a short-term bounce I just don't see any new leaders out there to take the baton. It seems to me the leading stocks of Medical and Food tells me that the market is in trouble. Oh, yeah, I forgot about all the climax runs, diverging indicators, and everything else that I have been talking about the past three days.
So let's not get too wild about buying this pullback. I think it is best to stay in plenty of cash. And unless you know how to short stocks I don't recommend that either. This isn't a proven secular bear market yet. That will take plenty more time. AND TRUST ME then you will have plenty of time to short plenty of stocks for OK gains. Besides, there are still great longs to buy in the Medical and other sectors that will go up in a bad market. Also I would lock in profits more quickly than last time. Three out of four stocks follow the market.
So we shall see what tomorrow brings. Whatever it is, I will be ready. Like always!
New Swing Longs: FVE PSPT TIII TTG--For more info on longs and shorts, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: CRXL SWC--on a bounce to the 50dma. If no bounce, there is no short.
Longs Outperforming Market-number is % gain since purchase: LMIA-130 ACR-115 ICTG-96 HOM-83 NVDA-78 JOBS-38 COGO-68 MTU MORN SHFL NMR-40 AAPL LYV AOB TVIA TMG SPSX-56 ABI SBAC-49 USEG HNZ DIS NAII SNTO-28
Shorts Outperforming Market: NVT ELY
Stocks On Radar Screen: AE PCLN
Selling All: Gold stocks
Saturday, May 13, 2006
Stocks Fall Again, On Heavy Volume; Didn't Your Mom Tell You Not To Play With Knives?
Stocks continued the trend that they established on Thursday, with the SP 600 leading the way down again with a 1.89% cut. The NYSE fell 1.4%, the Nasdaq fell 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%.
Volume was higher on the NYSE, giving it two distribution days in a row. The Nasdaq's volume was lower but still well above average. So it is hard to find anything positive about the index just because the volume was lower than yesterday. It was still an ugly day.
Breadth was bad all around, with the NYSE decliners leading advancers by a 4-to-1 margin; the Nasdaq was 3-to-1 negative. Like I said on Thursday, this kind of negative breadth by such a large margin is indicative of a market being near the end of a selloff. However, for breadth to be this bad just when the indexes start their selloff is very odd indeed. I wish I had historical data on that. I know it is out there I am just not going looking for it now.
Something to support that argument might also be the put/call ratio. It spiked to 1.12 intraday, on Friday. This is another side-indicator that signals we are near the bottom not the beginning of a downtrned.
Now take that info and then listen to this. It is obvious the markets are just NOW starting their correction (Thursday) and that NOW is the time to get defensive. All the parabolic charts, laggards breaking out and failing, and lack of quality stocks showing up all signals this is the start not the end. Also without any high quality stocks holding up--IBD 100 fell 3.8% on Friday--and no new CANSLIM stocks setting up it is a sign that the downtrend is just beginning not ending.
Therefore we have conflicting signals. So you would think! But price and volume takes the top priority. The signals via individual charts and the indexes indicate it is time to take a defensive measure, not try to GUESS at when we are going to bottom, and keep cash on hand for when we ACTUALLY bottom. Does the term grabbing a falling knife ring a bell. If it doesn't: it means don't try to bottom pick stocks. WE DON'T DO THAT! We buy strength in bullish markets. We don't buy "bargains" when the markets are rolling over. Period! I will not answer any questions on any stock having a pullback as a new long. I don't recommend buying in down markets, period.
It was a wild week indeed. It was the worst week for the markets since the week before the rally began in October. Back then everyone was bearish including someone who I know who thought then that the markets were done for good. Right after that, we experienced a very lucrative rally. I had many stocks up over 100% during that rally that was supposed to be the beginning of the end!
What I am trying to say is don't believe the hype that all is going to break loose to the downside. A 10% correction wouldn't be out of line but a crash isn't going to happen. We had one in 2000, remember?
In saying that, however, there is still no safe place to hide your money. Remember, that short term parabolic move in ERS TIE and other metals and all that gold chatter I was talking about last week where it seemed everyone loved commodities. That group of bulls found no comfort in holding some of those stocks on Friday. Those stocks are done for now. It is time to realize that and move on.
This doesn't mean all are in bad shape. It is just the group I am talking about.
Now with the market acting the way it is, I still find myself holding a lot of stocks that still have beautiful chart patterns. Nothing says they can't get worse but the fundamental backdrop for them supports holding them if they only correct a small amount or on very low volume. This would just be a base setting period for them. They should be some of the first stocks to move again, when the pullback ends.
Stay positive, take some profits, cut your losses, don't buy falling knifes, and avoid new buys unless the fundamentals are beautiful.
Have a great weekend. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: HSR WLT USEG
New Swing Shorts: SIVB ELY NVT
Longs Outperforming Market: TGC-200 SMDI-135 KNOL-146 IIP-93 NTO-98 IFO-54 JOBS-26 GPIC ATHR-82 SHFL IHS-29 LTM LEAP EFII BWP AOB RBY PMTR-35 DIL-34 UVN DRH-25 PKE ISV-49
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: AZPN HCR ININ
Take Some More Profits, If You Haven't Yet: RAIL TXCO VTS NVDA IVAC HOM EMKR TGB SIM LNUX
Taking Rest Of Profits: NGPS ESLR TRAD CDE EVST LONG ZEUS STEL FC RCNI
Cutting My Loss: CPST ANO EXFO FCSE
Disaster Cut Losses: GLBC (sold first half on Fri, selling rest at open)
Volume was higher on the NYSE, giving it two distribution days in a row. The Nasdaq's volume was lower but still well above average. So it is hard to find anything positive about the index just because the volume was lower than yesterday. It was still an ugly day.
Breadth was bad all around, with the NYSE decliners leading advancers by a 4-to-1 margin; the Nasdaq was 3-to-1 negative. Like I said on Thursday, this kind of negative breadth by such a large margin is indicative of a market being near the end of a selloff. However, for breadth to be this bad just when the indexes start their selloff is very odd indeed. I wish I had historical data on that. I know it is out there I am just not going looking for it now.
Something to support that argument might also be the put/call ratio. It spiked to 1.12 intraday, on Friday. This is another side-indicator that signals we are near the bottom not the beginning of a downtrned.
Now take that info and then listen to this. It is obvious the markets are just NOW starting their correction (Thursday) and that NOW is the time to get defensive. All the parabolic charts, laggards breaking out and failing, and lack of quality stocks showing up all signals this is the start not the end. Also without any high quality stocks holding up--IBD 100 fell 3.8% on Friday--and no new CANSLIM stocks setting up it is a sign that the downtrend is just beginning not ending.
Therefore we have conflicting signals. So you would think! But price and volume takes the top priority. The signals via individual charts and the indexes indicate it is time to take a defensive measure, not try to GUESS at when we are going to bottom, and keep cash on hand for when we ACTUALLY bottom. Does the term grabbing a falling knife ring a bell. If it doesn't: it means don't try to bottom pick stocks. WE DON'T DO THAT! We buy strength in bullish markets. We don't buy "bargains" when the markets are rolling over. Period! I will not answer any questions on any stock having a pullback as a new long. I don't recommend buying in down markets, period.
It was a wild week indeed. It was the worst week for the markets since the week before the rally began in October. Back then everyone was bearish including someone who I know who thought then that the markets were done for good. Right after that, we experienced a very lucrative rally. I had many stocks up over 100% during that rally that was supposed to be the beginning of the end!
What I am trying to say is don't believe the hype that all is going to break loose to the downside. A 10% correction wouldn't be out of line but a crash isn't going to happen. We had one in 2000, remember?
In saying that, however, there is still no safe place to hide your money. Remember, that short term parabolic move in ERS TIE and other metals and all that gold chatter I was talking about last week where it seemed everyone loved commodities. That group of bulls found no comfort in holding some of those stocks on Friday. Those stocks are done for now. It is time to realize that and move on.
This doesn't mean all are in bad shape. It is just the group I am talking about.
Now with the market acting the way it is, I still find myself holding a lot of stocks that still have beautiful chart patterns. Nothing says they can't get worse but the fundamental backdrop for them supports holding them if they only correct a small amount or on very low volume. This would just be a base setting period for them. They should be some of the first stocks to move again, when the pullback ends.
Stay positive, take some profits, cut your losses, don't buy falling knifes, and avoid new buys unless the fundamentals are beautiful.
Have a great weekend. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: HSR WLT USEG
New Swing Shorts: SIVB ELY NVT
Longs Outperforming Market: TGC-200 SMDI-135 KNOL-146 IIP-93 NTO-98 IFO-54 JOBS-26 GPIC ATHR-82 SHFL IHS-29 LTM LEAP EFII BWP AOB RBY PMTR-35 DIL-34 UVN DRH-25 PKE ISV-49
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: AZPN HCR ININ
Take Some More Profits, If You Haven't Yet: RAIL TXCO VTS NVDA IVAC HOM EMKR TGB SIM LNUX
Taking Rest Of Profits: NGPS ESLR TRAD CDE EVST LONG ZEUS STEL FC RCNI
Cutting My Loss: CPST ANO EXFO FCSE
Disaster Cut Losses: GLBC (sold first half on Fri, selling rest at open)
Thursday, May 11, 2006
Nasdaq Sub-Intermediate and Short Term Trend Turn Down; Staying Positive Amongst The Panic.
Now all the bears can get bearish if they want. NOW! they have a reason. And as you can see below in the 'longs outperforming market' they missed a ton of stocks moving as much as 550% during the move they were denying. Instead of staying bearish the whole way up we instead made money. Now we have a reason to be bearish. I am still not going to be a full blown bear yet. When all indexes are in solid downtrends and rallies fail at the 50 and 200 dma, then I will be a solid bear. For now I am extra cautious. I think there is more downside to come.
Now, on with the facts. Which is really all that matters. The markets fell across the board, with the SP 600 leading the way with a 2.25% decline. The Nasdaq fell 2.1%, the SP 500 fell 1.3%, and the Dow Jones fell 1.22%. It was not a pretty day at all. This was the worst one day decline since Jan. 20th.
Volume rose across the board. The extremely high day of volume combined with the very large point declines is a clear cut distribution day. This then makes the small distribution days I was not counting NOW count. It is obvious, in hindsight, that is was indeed distribution. Breadth was obviously very negative. The NYSE was negative by a 13-to-4 margin and on the Nasdaq it was 4-to-1 negative. This kind of negative breadth has the feel of panic selling. This type of negative breadth normally appears at the end of a decline or correction. To combat that story, however, the put/call ratio remained very low throughout the day. Normally it would have seen a big spike. Conflict of indicators.
This decline, along with stocks breaking down, climax runs happening in HANS ERS and TIE (all long term winners), no new CANSLIM stocks setting up or breaking out, and all my holdings getting weak are clear indications, to me that this rally is under major pressure.
It is, obviously, time to start to sell your laggards, sell some stocks rolling over, sell stocks that have had climax runs, cut losses to 10% or less, and not buy stocks. If stocks start breaking down on heavy volume below key moving averages of the 50/200 you might want to consider selling. But that doesn't mean sell everything. There are a ton of stocks I am still long that have no damage in the charts. It is the charts acting up that need to be dealt with. If other stocks are still moving up and not flashing any clear distribution there is no reason to sell them.
In conclusion, I am starting to get defensive but at the same time don't know how much more negative it can get out there. Remember, I monitor a lot of chatrooms. It was very bearish. Beside the gold, silver, and metal longs. So the best thing to do here is be patient and not just start buying everything we think is a bargain. It is also not the time to start shorting everything blindly either. It is time to just watch a little and manage the "ol portfolio."
With that I am going to Sansei's. Have a great night and I will see you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: AOM FCSE -- For more info on these longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: Not Yet.
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since initial purchase): GIGM-253 TTES-74 JOBS STRL-55 RAIL-89 FSTR VTS-41 BAS SHFL BWP LMIA-133 OMNI-68 SMTX EXFO KNOL-145 PEIX-134 PRVT OMCL ASPV PMTR-30 VSL SNTO-35 GPIC GSOL XNPT NAII WDHD LONG ATRO
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: AMTY
Take Some Profits If You Have Not Taken Any: SATC MERX GNBT SMSI XRTX SMDI GBN RATE STKL RBY RBAK TGE SWIR AMKR CUP TOMO MXWL SBAC LRCX
Selling Down Some Recent Buys: SVNT GLBC DTLK
Stocks That I Am Getting Completely Out: CLZR CPSS TAM SPWR KBX RMBS COMS BCRX MDCC JDSU
Disasters On One Of The Worst Days This Year: NONE!
Why I Cut My Losses: NENG IMMR AVII -- Remember these?
Why You Still Don't Catch A Falling Knife: ESCL -- 86% drop in four days.
Now, on with the facts. Which is really all that matters. The markets fell across the board, with the SP 600 leading the way with a 2.25% decline. The Nasdaq fell 2.1%, the SP 500 fell 1.3%, and the Dow Jones fell 1.22%. It was not a pretty day at all. This was the worst one day decline since Jan. 20th.
Volume rose across the board. The extremely high day of volume combined with the very large point declines is a clear cut distribution day. This then makes the small distribution days I was not counting NOW count. It is obvious, in hindsight, that is was indeed distribution. Breadth was obviously very negative. The NYSE was negative by a 13-to-4 margin and on the Nasdaq it was 4-to-1 negative. This kind of negative breadth has the feel of panic selling. This type of negative breadth normally appears at the end of a decline or correction. To combat that story, however, the put/call ratio remained very low throughout the day. Normally it would have seen a big spike. Conflict of indicators.
This decline, along with stocks breaking down, climax runs happening in HANS ERS and TIE (all long term winners), no new CANSLIM stocks setting up or breaking out, and all my holdings getting weak are clear indications, to me that this rally is under major pressure.
It is, obviously, time to start to sell your laggards, sell some stocks rolling over, sell stocks that have had climax runs, cut losses to 10% or less, and not buy stocks. If stocks start breaking down on heavy volume below key moving averages of the 50/200 you might want to consider selling. But that doesn't mean sell everything. There are a ton of stocks I am still long that have no damage in the charts. It is the charts acting up that need to be dealt with. If other stocks are still moving up and not flashing any clear distribution there is no reason to sell them.
In conclusion, I am starting to get defensive but at the same time don't know how much more negative it can get out there. Remember, I monitor a lot of chatrooms. It was very bearish. Beside the gold, silver, and metal longs. So the best thing to do here is be patient and not just start buying everything we think is a bargain. It is also not the time to start shorting everything blindly either. It is time to just watch a little and manage the "ol portfolio."
With that I am going to Sansei's. Have a great night and I will see you tomorrow.
New Swing Longs: AOM FCSE -- For more info on these longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: Not Yet.
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since initial purchase): GIGM-253 TTES-74 JOBS STRL-55 RAIL-89 FSTR VTS-41 BAS SHFL BWP LMIA-133 OMNI-68 SMTX EXFO KNOL-145 PEIX-134 PRVT OMCL ASPV PMTR-30 VSL SNTO-35 GPIC GSOL XNPT NAII WDHD LONG ATRO
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: AMTY
Take Some Profits If You Have Not Taken Any: SATC MERX GNBT SMSI XRTX SMDI GBN RATE STKL RBY RBAK TGE SWIR AMKR CUP TOMO MXWL SBAC LRCX
Selling Down Some Recent Buys: SVNT GLBC DTLK
Stocks That I Am Getting Completely Out: CLZR CPSS TAM SPWR KBX RMBS COMS BCRX MDCC JDSU
Disasters On One Of The Worst Days This Year: NONE!
Why I Cut My Losses: NENG IMMR AVII -- Remember these?
Why You Still Don't Catch A Falling Knife: ESCL -- 86% drop in four days.
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
Fed Raises Again, Dow Gains And Nasdaq Falls; Remaining Bullish But Cautious.
It was another day of mixed action, as the Nasdaq fell and the DJIA rose. The Nasdaq fell .7% on heavier volume, giving it its second distribution day in as many days, according to IBD. The SP 500 fell .2%, the NYSE was up .2%, the DJ was up .1%, and the SP 600 led to the downside with a .4% loss. Volume on the NYSE was higher but the SP 500 did not suffer a distribution day thanks to the less than .2% down close.
Today's big news of course was nothing new. Ben and the gang raised rates for the 16th straight time to 5%. That comes from the lows of 1%. As history repeats itself again, stocks have done nothing but rally the whole time. And if he is going to 5.5% or 6%, stocks will continue to rise. It is history folks. This isn't rocket science. So you can get as bearish and as scared as you want. I will just get cautious, knowing that history PROVES that stocks rise when rates are being raised. And stocks keep rising as soon as they are done. It is when they start cutting that you know something is wrong. When rates start getting cut, stocks start to fall.
IBD will be running an Investors Corner article on the relationship between the Fed and the stock market, on Friday. Please, read it!!!!!!!!!!
As for me, though I remain bullish, I am becoming more cautious. Some leading tech stocks are struggling, many long term winners are flashing climax tops, small caps are leading to the downside the past week, and many speculative breakouts are failing. This is a sign of a tired market. Especially as oil and gold stocks continue to do well.
However, until we actually rollover there is no reason to get bearish. Do you know how many stock charts I still have with no problems? Do you know how many of them have 25% EPS and sales growth the past 4 quarters? So I see no reason to run and hide and sell the whole danged portfolio.
As long as people are worried about inflation, interest rates, job numbers I will just keep my bullish posture on this market. That along with the constant six-year/all-time highs in the NYSE, SP 600, and DJIA make me wonder what the heck the bears are thinking. The Nasdaq is also still holding support at the 50 dma. Even though it is underperforming and COULD rollover it still hasn't. And until it does the support shows strength. However, at the same time, it is not good that the Nasdaq is lagging. But how can you blame it with oil being such a huge part of the big-cap indexes.
If things get worse, obviously, I will be raising more cash as I sell more stocks that give profit taking or sell signals. Until then I will stay with what I have.
The FOMC decision is over. Now what will the fools in our media focus on to help you NOT make money? Whatever BS it is, God knows there are plenty of "kool-aid" drinkers to lap it up!
I shall see you tomorrow!
New Swing Longs: NAII -- For more information on longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): AUY-167 GIGM-235 NXG-228 BOOM-412 WIRE-216 LMIA-113 RBAK-231 ACTG-101 PEIX-128 KNOL-138 CLG-136 TSCM-153 SPNC-108 IED-107 ICTG-92 IFO-46 COGO-78 TTES-66 BAS TMI TZOO EAGL-85 FWLT-75 RAIL-84 ZEUS-74 WST STRL-50 MORN RSTI-53 NNDS-44 HEIA-44 FSTR CIB-35 MNST-72 PNRG-64 AAU MMK-27 KBX GPRE BWP CUP-58 ECLG-84 ENER-34 EXFO SIM-64 PRVT DTLK LIOX JOBS BEAV-59 EGO IT-33 DIS MGLN MERX-57 LEAP USB PCTI ACR-72 SYKE SWIR-64 SMF-20 ING-35 NAVI-28 GISX SNTO ATRO
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: PCLN BIDU CAAS AZPN DROOY
Cutting My Losses: PKTR IDSA
Take More Profits Example: IHS-29% gain
Take Rest Of Profits: MFLX-110% gain
Disasters: CAMP-20% loss, AVII-15% loss on 100 shares (not a big deal), TMTA-20% loss
Why You Don't Try To Catch A Falling Knife: ESCL (down 46%)
Today's big news of course was nothing new. Ben and the gang raised rates for the 16th straight time to 5%. That comes from the lows of 1%. As history repeats itself again, stocks have done nothing but rally the whole time. And if he is going to 5.5% or 6%, stocks will continue to rise. It is history folks. This isn't rocket science. So you can get as bearish and as scared as you want. I will just get cautious, knowing that history PROVES that stocks rise when rates are being raised. And stocks keep rising as soon as they are done. It is when they start cutting that you know something is wrong. When rates start getting cut, stocks start to fall.
IBD will be running an Investors Corner article on the relationship between the Fed and the stock market, on Friday. Please, read it!!!!!!!!!!
As for me, though I remain bullish, I am becoming more cautious. Some leading tech stocks are struggling, many long term winners are flashing climax tops, small caps are leading to the downside the past week, and many speculative breakouts are failing. This is a sign of a tired market. Especially as oil and gold stocks continue to do well.
However, until we actually rollover there is no reason to get bearish. Do you know how many stock charts I still have with no problems? Do you know how many of them have 25% EPS and sales growth the past 4 quarters? So I see no reason to run and hide and sell the whole danged portfolio.
As long as people are worried about inflation, interest rates, job numbers I will just keep my bullish posture on this market. That along with the constant six-year/all-time highs in the NYSE, SP 600, and DJIA make me wonder what the heck the bears are thinking. The Nasdaq is also still holding support at the 50 dma. Even though it is underperforming and COULD rollover it still hasn't. And until it does the support shows strength. However, at the same time, it is not good that the Nasdaq is lagging. But how can you blame it with oil being such a huge part of the big-cap indexes.
If things get worse, obviously, I will be raising more cash as I sell more stocks that give profit taking or sell signals. Until then I will stay with what I have.
The FOMC decision is over. Now what will the fools in our media focus on to help you NOT make money? Whatever BS it is, God knows there are plenty of "kool-aid" drinkers to lap it up!
I shall see you tomorrow!
New Swing Longs: NAII -- For more information on longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): AUY-167 GIGM-235 NXG-228 BOOM-412 WIRE-216 LMIA-113 RBAK-231 ACTG-101 PEIX-128 KNOL-138 CLG-136 TSCM-153 SPNC-108 IED-107 ICTG-92 IFO-46 COGO-78 TTES-66 BAS TMI TZOO EAGL-85 FWLT-75 RAIL-84 ZEUS-74 WST STRL-50 MORN RSTI-53 NNDS-44 HEIA-44 FSTR CIB-35 MNST-72 PNRG-64 AAU MMK-27 KBX GPRE BWP CUP-58 ECLG-84 ENER-34 EXFO SIM-64 PRVT DTLK LIOX JOBS BEAV-59 EGO IT-33 DIS MGLN MERX-57 LEAP USB PCTI ACR-72 SYKE SWIR-64 SMF-20 ING-35 NAVI-28 GISX SNTO ATRO
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: PCLN BIDU CAAS AZPN DROOY
Cutting My Losses: PKTR IDSA
Take More Profits Example: IHS-29% gain
Take Rest Of Profits: MFLX-110% gain
Disasters: CAMP-20% loss, AVII-15% loss on 100 shares (not a big deal), TMTA-20% loss
Why You Don't Try To Catch A Falling Knife: ESCL (down 46%)
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Markets Close Mixed On A Boring Tuesday; FOMC Meeting Tomorrow.
It was another pretty boring day, besides the Dow Jones Industrial Averages intraday action, with a lot of sideline sitting by most market participants waiting for the FOMC interest rate decision tomorrow. It is widely expected that they will hike again, for the 16th straight time.
The DJIA led with a .5% gain, the SP 500 rose less than .1%, and the Nasdaq was the laggard with a .3% loss. The DJIA was basically the leader thanks to GM and the Nasdaq the laggard thanks to DELL.
Volume was higher on the Nasdaq and lower on the NYSE. The higher volume in the Nasdaq was called a distribution day by IBD. But, as they said in the "big picture," the volume was much lower than the 50 day volume average. The quiet trade Monday and the volume being much lower than the 50 day volume average allows me to say "this is not a distribution day." I am not counting it as one and if you don't want to either you would be smart too.
Breadth was pretty much even, again, on the NYSE and decliners beat advancers on the Nasdaq by a 9-to-7 ratio.
The IBD 100 managed a gain of .7% today, showing that leading stocks are STILL outperforming the market to the upside. The leading Metal sectors continued their rally today and the Beverages-Soft Drinks group led the industry groups to the upside. The weak stocks on the day were Medical stocks.
Overall, to me, when I look at things, it was a very uninteresting day. But what do you expect with the Fed meeting on the calendar tomorrow. The only thing of interest, once again, is the action after hours.
CSCO (another stock I could care less about) came out with a strong earnings report and this is the first one I can think of for a 4-letter big cap tech stock. CSCO is in a strong uptrend since its 2005 lows and is holding the 50 dma. So if this stock can get some legs going maybe it can help the Nasdaq. But I am not sure if CSCO even matters anymore to the Nasdaq. If DELL and MSFT is any indication, the Nasdaq is slowly forgetting about another old friend and its performance has nothing to do with another old big-cap stock.
So it is up to the Fed tomorrow to light the fireworks. Let's see if Ben brings the good stuff. What is the good stuff? How should I know?
New Swing Longs: TLEO AVII CHRD EXFO CPSS GPRE AAU -- For more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-377 HOM-103 BGC-104 NXG-225 SLW-137 BBD-141 CBG-135 WIRE-216 AUY-166 MNG-194 KNOL-130 LCC-151 CLG-129 RBAK-208 NTO-106 TGB-170 AKAM-128 PEIX-120 ACTG-94 IFO-35 TXCO-61 IVAC-26 VTS-40 CLZR-49 BAS VPRT VIMC-67 LRCX-57 TZOO FTK PKTR KDN-29 PNRG-64 TRAD-58 GLBC ICTG-85 MNST-72 KCS BWLD TYL CAMP WST TMI CIB-35 RMBS ZEUS-71 KEX-61 MTU EFII NGPS-25 BAM-39 MDCC-44 FSTR NMR-51 TOMO-35 MMK KBX LYV WNR QCC BWP SPWR-43 RUTH CUP-34 ANO DIL-40 TMY SIM-59 CGR GBN-60 FMTI SCVL BGO-89 KGC-64 CDE-29 RBY TVIA PPCO DIS MERX-55 CPTS-34 RNWK BEAV-55 BE DTLK NNDS-43 CRUS REFR AOB BWLD SPI USB GNA-29 LTRX-40 CTCI CTEC MEND
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: WEL QEE
Longs Gone Wrong: VTIV -- 7% loss. Low volume bounce. Should not have take it.
Disaster Endings To Fine Longs: IMMR -- selling rest with a 6.5% loss. GEMS -- selling rest with an 11% loss.
The DJIA led with a .5% gain, the SP 500 rose less than .1%, and the Nasdaq was the laggard with a .3% loss. The DJIA was basically the leader thanks to GM and the Nasdaq the laggard thanks to DELL.
Volume was higher on the Nasdaq and lower on the NYSE. The higher volume in the Nasdaq was called a distribution day by IBD. But, as they said in the "big picture," the volume was much lower than the 50 day volume average. The quiet trade Monday and the volume being much lower than the 50 day volume average allows me to say "this is not a distribution day." I am not counting it as one and if you don't want to either you would be smart too.
Breadth was pretty much even, again, on the NYSE and decliners beat advancers on the Nasdaq by a 9-to-7 ratio.
The IBD 100 managed a gain of .7% today, showing that leading stocks are STILL outperforming the market to the upside. The leading Metal sectors continued their rally today and the Beverages-Soft Drinks group led the industry groups to the upside. The weak stocks on the day were Medical stocks.
Overall, to me, when I look at things, it was a very uninteresting day. But what do you expect with the Fed meeting on the calendar tomorrow. The only thing of interest, once again, is the action after hours.
CSCO (another stock I could care less about) came out with a strong earnings report and this is the first one I can think of for a 4-letter big cap tech stock. CSCO is in a strong uptrend since its 2005 lows and is holding the 50 dma. So if this stock can get some legs going maybe it can help the Nasdaq. But I am not sure if CSCO even matters anymore to the Nasdaq. If DELL and MSFT is any indication, the Nasdaq is slowly forgetting about another old friend and its performance has nothing to do with another old big-cap stock.
So it is up to the Fed tomorrow to light the fireworks. Let's see if Ben brings the good stuff. What is the good stuff? How should I know?
New Swing Longs: TLEO AVII CHRD EXFO CPSS GPRE AAU -- For more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-377 HOM-103 BGC-104 NXG-225 SLW-137 BBD-141 CBG-135 WIRE-216 AUY-166 MNG-194 KNOL-130 LCC-151 CLG-129 RBAK-208 NTO-106 TGB-170 AKAM-128 PEIX-120 ACTG-94 IFO-35 TXCO-61 IVAC-26 VTS-40 CLZR-49 BAS VPRT VIMC-67 LRCX-57 TZOO FTK PKTR KDN-29 PNRG-64 TRAD-58 GLBC ICTG-85 MNST-72 KCS BWLD TYL CAMP WST TMI CIB-35 RMBS ZEUS-71 KEX-61 MTU EFII NGPS-25 BAM-39 MDCC-44 FSTR NMR-51 TOMO-35 MMK KBX LYV WNR QCC BWP SPWR-43 RUTH CUP-34 ANO DIL-40 TMY SIM-59 CGR GBN-60 FMTI SCVL BGO-89 KGC-64 CDE-29 RBY TVIA PPCO DIS MERX-55 CPTS-34 RNWK BEAV-55 BE DTLK NNDS-43 CRUS REFR AOB BWLD SPI USB GNA-29 LTRX-40 CTCI CTEC MEND
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: WEL QEE
Longs Gone Wrong: VTIV -- 7% loss. Low volume bounce. Should not have take it.
Disaster Endings To Fine Longs: IMMR -- selling rest with a 6.5% loss. GEMS -- selling rest with an 11% loss.
Monday, May 08, 2006
Boring Quiet Day For Stocks Leave Indexes Flat For The Day; DELL Misses After Hours But Who Cares?
Major market indexes basically did nothing today, after Friday's gains. The digestion of the games with a slight positive is a nice thing to see after such a good day as we had on Friday. It beats giving it all back up on higher volume!
The dead action in the indexes, I guess, can be blamed on Wednesday's FOMC meeting. This one is particularly interesting as the market for the first time in a while is not completely sure what will happen this time. I am going with the trend and say one more hike. That will make the 16th hike in a row since June 2004. If Bernanke pauses I guarantee there will be some volatile trading after the meeting. We shall se what happens there when we cross that bridge.
All the indexes moved with a .1% range and volume was lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Breadth was pretty much even on the NYSE and slightly negative on the Nasdaq by an 8-to-7 margin. Basically a dead boring day, as I have been saying.
The top performing industry group today was the Agriculture Operation group and the Metal-Products-Distributor group fell 3.1% leading all industry groups to the downside. ERS was the main blame there. Did I call the top on that or what? Was it magic? Was it luck? Or was it history repeating itself? Hint: Question 3 is the right one.
The only other interesting thing that happened today was after the bell. DELL missed and disappointed investors with their guidance. Why is that interesting? Heck, I don't know. Why does anyone care or even invest in these old dinosaurs anymore. If anyone has MSFT, DELL, INTC, or CSCO in their portfolio, they should fire their broker immediately. I don't care if you are 80 yrs. old; you should have ZERO shares of the four companies just mentioned. They are dinosaurs and don't even make good value investments. These stocks simply are not leaders anymore and have NO major influence on the market anymore. Take MSFT's 15% hit last week. How did the "tech heavy" Nasdaq do? It went up 1%. The talented investors and traders don't care about these stocks anymore and neither should you.
CSCO's earnings are tomorrow. Alright, now we can waste another 8 hours of our day talking about earnings that no true active intelligent investor should care about. Besides that, don't expect much as we will probably have to wait until Wednesday for anything fun to happen.
I hope everyone had a great day today and I shall see you tomorrow! Aloha from the most beautiful place on earth!
New Swing Longs: VTIV BRR DTLK SABA BW GPIC -- For more info on swing longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: PKE-26 IFO HOM-86 FWLT-71 GIGM-241 COGO-79 NNDS-40 WIRE-216 MNST-69 RADN-47 NGPS-25 TTES-68 ARS-68 CTXS-72 SNDK SMSI-72 NCTY NMR-51 FRGB MDCC-44 AKAM-125 MTU RATE-197 KEX-60 VPRT LTM CORS MORN SCVL SLW-132 NXG-219 GLBC BGC-101 SPIL RMBS ZEUS-70 FSTR TRAD-55 STRL-50 HEIA-43 EAGL-90 BAM-39 TOMO-41 STX-26 KDN-26 VLG CBG-134 MFLX-201 AXE-41 BBD-140 BWLD TGE-61 RUSHA TAM SPWR-42 DIL-27 PEIX-119 LTS STKL-67 SWIR-64 SATC-54 MT-27 MERX-50 AOB LWSN TGB-161 WEBM KNOL-111 PWR-31 SFE-27 TTEK TMY SPSX-65 CPTS-30 RAIL-78 NTO-101 PRVT ACR-73 SMTX SPNC-106 DA LII ING-34 CVA OMCL MEL NAVI TFR-100 SNTO SIM-47 CTEC WDHD
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: XTXI
Disaster Of The Day: UIC -- Leaving with a 39% gain.
The dead action in the indexes, I guess, can be blamed on Wednesday's FOMC meeting. This one is particularly interesting as the market for the first time in a while is not completely sure what will happen this time. I am going with the trend and say one more hike. That will make the 16th hike in a row since June 2004. If Bernanke pauses I guarantee there will be some volatile trading after the meeting. We shall se what happens there when we cross that bridge.
All the indexes moved with a .1% range and volume was lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Breadth was pretty much even on the NYSE and slightly negative on the Nasdaq by an 8-to-7 margin. Basically a dead boring day, as I have been saying.
The top performing industry group today was the Agriculture Operation group and the Metal-Products-Distributor group fell 3.1% leading all industry groups to the downside. ERS was the main blame there. Did I call the top on that or what? Was it magic? Was it luck? Or was it history repeating itself? Hint: Question 3 is the right one.
The only other interesting thing that happened today was after the bell. DELL missed and disappointed investors with their guidance. Why is that interesting? Heck, I don't know. Why does anyone care or even invest in these old dinosaurs anymore. If anyone has MSFT, DELL, INTC, or CSCO in their portfolio, they should fire their broker immediately. I don't care if you are 80 yrs. old; you should have ZERO shares of the four companies just mentioned. They are dinosaurs and don't even make good value investments. These stocks simply are not leaders anymore and have NO major influence on the market anymore. Take MSFT's 15% hit last week. How did the "tech heavy" Nasdaq do? It went up 1%. The talented investors and traders don't care about these stocks anymore and neither should you.
CSCO's earnings are tomorrow. Alright, now we can waste another 8 hours of our day talking about earnings that no true active intelligent investor should care about. Besides that, don't expect much as we will probably have to wait until Wednesday for anything fun to happen.
I hope everyone had a great day today and I shall see you tomorrow! Aloha from the most beautiful place on earth!
New Swing Longs: VTIV BRR DTLK SABA BW GPIC -- For more info on swing longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: PKE-26 IFO HOM-86 FWLT-71 GIGM-241 COGO-79 NNDS-40 WIRE-216 MNST-69 RADN-47 NGPS-25 TTES-68 ARS-68 CTXS-72 SNDK SMSI-72 NCTY NMR-51 FRGB MDCC-44 AKAM-125 MTU RATE-197 KEX-60 VPRT LTM CORS MORN SCVL SLW-132 NXG-219 GLBC BGC-101 SPIL RMBS ZEUS-70 FSTR TRAD-55 STRL-50 HEIA-43 EAGL-90 BAM-39 TOMO-41 STX-26 KDN-26 VLG CBG-134 MFLX-201 AXE-41 BBD-140 BWLD TGE-61 RUSHA TAM SPWR-42 DIL-27 PEIX-119 LTS STKL-67 SWIR-64 SATC-54 MT-27 MERX-50 AOB LWSN TGB-161 WEBM KNOL-111 PWR-31 SFE-27 TTEK TMY SPSX-65 CPTS-30 RAIL-78 NTO-101 PRVT ACR-73 SMTX SPNC-106 DA LII ING-34 CVA OMCL MEL NAVI TFR-100 SNTO SIM-47 CTEC WDHD
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: XTXI
Disaster Of The Day: UIC -- Leaving with a 39% gain.
Sunday, May 07, 2006
Markets Continue To Make New All Time And Six Year Highs.
No market commentary this weekend. I had way too much fun with close friends. The O'hana of support I have on this island is amazing. A great weekend full of food and fun! What more can you ask for.
If you read the last five post on this blog, you will be more than caught up. Friday's move didn't surprise me at all. There is simply NO reason to ever be bearish when the markets are in uptrends. And that is what we have, all across the board.
Aloha.
New Swing Longs: SMTX TMY GMST REFR CVA VLTS DIS XNPT MERC
Adding More To Position: TZOO
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): I will do this when I wake up. I am too tired.
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: GFIG EP NUVO
If you read the last five post on this blog, you will be more than caught up. Friday's move didn't surprise me at all. There is simply NO reason to ever be bearish when the markets are in uptrends. And that is what we have, all across the board.
Aloha.
New Swing Longs: SMTX TMY GMST REFR CVA VLTS DIS XNPT MERC
Adding More To Position: TZOO
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): I will do this when I wake up. I am too tired.
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: GFIG EP NUVO
Thursday, May 04, 2006
Nasdaq Holds 50 DMA, DJ-30 Hits Six Year Highs, Corporate Earnings Keep Hitting All Time Highs, And Oil Falls Below $70.
Falling oil prices and extremely strong earnings helped stocks rally across the board, with the Nasdaq and SP 600 leading. If this was the reason or not, who knows. But this is what they have decided to list as the reason for today's up move.
The Nasdaq and SP 600 rose .9% and the SP 500 and DJIA rose .3%. The big winner of the day was the Dow Jones Transportation Index with a 3.34% gain and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index with a 1.3% gain. The Transportation stocks saw some of today's biggest moves and many stocks in that sector still have beautiful charts. The Transportation-Services sector itself advanced 8% on the day. Quite stunning!
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and higher on the NYSE, with breadth positive on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
Another day, another win for the bulls. Techs and Transportation stocks seem to be showing some leadership as oil falters. If Biotech, Techs, and other Service industries have a rotation into them from all the commodity stock speculation, this bull could have more room to run.
Skepticism is still out there, folks. Don't think everyone is bullish. Remember, last week the wall street journal survey? 77% are nervous about this economy. The new Investor Intelligence Survey had bulls drop to 43% and bears rise to 28% the past week. Yet stocks went higher. A positive divergence.
I am finding plenty of stocks to buy and am passing up on a lot that are working out also. But I have to stay disciplined and trade my proper setups. Even though the sloppy setups are working too, it is better to just put more money to work in the better patterns.
The last thing I want to bring up tonight is ERS. All I have to say is history repeats itself. You can read my post yesterday and go through my open forums on Investors Paradise and see that I spent all day telling traders why ERS was done. Please read it, so you can now review the weekly and daily chart and learn what a climax run looks like in real time. Just put your hand over today's action.
Aloha and great luck tomorrow!
New Swing Longs: GLBC TAM LTS FNSR GFX
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: TTES-70 COGO-69 RADN-39 EAGL-88 VTS-36 BTUI-168 STRL-50 SMSI-68 ICTG-82 KEX-57 ZEUS-69 BGC-105 BOOM-451 PNRG-57 ARS-62 EFII ASPV WIRE-197 SNDK PETS-108 NTAP JOBS CTXS-63 RUSHA LRCX-56 RMBS SHFL SLW-129 PKE CAMP IVAC-26 KNXA-48 PKTR FRGB LTM TRAD-49 GEMS-42 FTK DECK-25 BBD-136 ATHR-114 MNST-61 CIB-36 TGE-59 CORS NMR-44 KDN-26 KCS BEAV-52 TYL DEIX MFLX-204 VPRT AXE-41 VLG FSTR CYMI WST RUTH QCC SMDI-148 SPSX-58 SATC-35 NXG-213 PWR-26 SPNC-105 EMKR-201 NTO-85 TGB-142 ANX-44 CUP IIP-86 MT SWW-46 STKL-48 IGT ECLG-71 ASML VCP NKTR AUY-140 SA-27 BGO-75 GMT DB-29 AKN DRH CCI-94 PRVT DA CRUS LII USB LCC-134 UBS-30 OMCL RNWK STD SPI RCNI CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: IMA SMOD SSI BW V
Told You So!!!: ERS
Lock In Some Profits: JDSU
The Nasdaq and SP 600 rose .9% and the SP 500 and DJIA rose .3%. The big winner of the day was the Dow Jones Transportation Index with a 3.34% gain and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index with a 1.3% gain. The Transportation stocks saw some of today's biggest moves and many stocks in that sector still have beautiful charts. The Transportation-Services sector itself advanced 8% on the day. Quite stunning!
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and higher on the NYSE, with breadth positive on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
Another day, another win for the bulls. Techs and Transportation stocks seem to be showing some leadership as oil falters. If Biotech, Techs, and other Service industries have a rotation into them from all the commodity stock speculation, this bull could have more room to run.
Skepticism is still out there, folks. Don't think everyone is bullish. Remember, last week the wall street journal survey? 77% are nervous about this economy. The new Investor Intelligence Survey had bulls drop to 43% and bears rise to 28% the past week. Yet stocks went higher. A positive divergence.
I am finding plenty of stocks to buy and am passing up on a lot that are working out also. But I have to stay disciplined and trade my proper setups. Even though the sloppy setups are working too, it is better to just put more money to work in the better patterns.
The last thing I want to bring up tonight is ERS. All I have to say is history repeats itself. You can read my post yesterday and go through my open forums on Investors Paradise and see that I spent all day telling traders why ERS was done. Please read it, so you can now review the weekly and daily chart and learn what a climax run looks like in real time. Just put your hand over today's action.
Aloha and great luck tomorrow!
New Swing Longs: GLBC TAM LTS FNSR GFX
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: TTES-70 COGO-69 RADN-39 EAGL-88 VTS-36 BTUI-168 STRL-50 SMSI-68 ICTG-82 KEX-57 ZEUS-69 BGC-105 BOOM-451 PNRG-57 ARS-62 EFII ASPV WIRE-197 SNDK PETS-108 NTAP JOBS CTXS-63 RUSHA LRCX-56 RMBS SHFL SLW-129 PKE CAMP IVAC-26 KNXA-48 PKTR FRGB LTM TRAD-49 GEMS-42 FTK DECK-25 BBD-136 ATHR-114 MNST-61 CIB-36 TGE-59 CORS NMR-44 KDN-26 KCS BEAV-52 TYL DEIX MFLX-204 VPRT AXE-41 VLG FSTR CYMI WST RUTH QCC SMDI-148 SPSX-58 SATC-35 NXG-213 PWR-26 SPNC-105 EMKR-201 NTO-85 TGB-142 ANX-44 CUP IIP-86 MT SWW-46 STKL-48 IGT ECLG-71 ASML VCP NKTR AUY-140 SA-27 BGO-75 GMT DB-29 AKN DRH CCI-94 PRVT DA CRUS LII USB LCC-134 UBS-30 OMCL RNWK STD SPI RCNI CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: IMA SMOD SSI BW V
Told You So!!!: ERS
Lock In Some Profits: JDSU
Wednesday, May 03, 2006
Nice Intraday Rally Helps Bring Stock Market Averages Off Their Lows To Close Slightly In The Red.
It was a pretty boring day on wall street, today, with the indexes finishing slightly down on a tiny pickup in volume. The "reason" for the slight down day according to CNBC and other market desk was that concerns over interest rates pressured stocks. LOL, OK.
The SP 500 fell .4%, the Nasdaq sold off .3%, the Dow Jones fell .1%, and the SP 600 finishing in the green up less than .1%.
Volume was pretty much even with yesterday but the final numbers show trading higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, with the tiny losses and great intraday support we got on the selloff, you can not call this a distribution day. So don't even try to count it as one.
Breadth on the NYSE was negative by a 9-7 margin and on the Nasdaq breadth was even.
Even though the market ticked down, once again, the IBD 100, my portfolio, and small caps outperformed. This has been the case ever since the short-term bottom in October and I don't see it changing any time soon. Another positive sign is seeing the action in Software, Semiconductor, and Biotech stocks starting to come back to life after a month plus of non-action.
I tell you what I have had it with the talk of metals, commodities, and anything related to oil. The amount of chatter on these stocks, with all the climax runs and extended charts, along with CNBC constantly covering this subject tells me these stocks are soon to be done in the near future. Look at my blog and all my metal stocks up 100% plus since Oct/Nov. Not too mention all the longs up 50% or more since then too. Metals, Gold, and Silver are just in the news way too much recently. So I continue with my thesis that the run in metals is soon over. I have been saying this for a week but the charts really support it now. ERS is up 560% in six months. Do you really think that can be sustained? It could go up 1000% but at this point in its chart a pullback to 33 seems possible. Then what happens who knows. All I know is I now have only 20% of my original position and I am letting it ride. Bottom line is most of the profits have been taken in stocks like this. This goes for all the Gold longs I have had since Oct/Nov.
Being a contrarian to the bull/bear newsletter numbers and the wall street journal poll, I am remaining bullish since most investors are bearish or not embracing this market. What they are FINALLY embracing is the gold, silver, metal, ore, and commodity stocks. They are bullish in a sector I am bearish. They are bearish on a market I am bullish. Do you see anything unique about that? If you don't, do me a favor and scroll down and check out my longs outperforming the market.
It will be an interesting day tomorrow and on Friday. I shall see you tomorrow. Great luck!
New Swing Longs: TZOO AOB HBE -- For more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-562 GIGM-254 MFLX-203 PETS-102 CBG-133 SIRF-129 NVDA-107 ATHR-112 AKAM-117 WIRE-188 LCC-133 EMKR-182 SMDI-116 CVO-104 TSCM-136 TGB-128 PEIX-108 IED-120 SPNC-92 NGPS LRCX-53 TTES-51 CYMI HEIA-45 CAMP FSTR STRL-43 KNXA-81 GEMS-41 IFO RSAS CTXS-59 ICTG-74 SPIL IHS-44 MTU WF EAGL-76 SMSI-61 IVAC-25 FRGB PNRG-52 ARS-56 RUSHA DECK ROK-27 STMP-26 NTAP KCS TYL TOMO-41 BWLD UIC-73 NCTY WST ZEUS-63 VLG KEX-51 SHFL BAS KDN-25 SPWR-44 POR TFSM-55 OMCL MERX-42 AIXD DIL SWW-41 ACTG-81 CCUR-30 SVNT MEL RNWK ILA CRUS ABI BDK SMF RAIL-73 SBAC-60 NKTR IT-40 CTCI CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: ZRAN GPRE EDGR SUNH MSLV SINA DTLK
The SP 500 fell .4%, the Nasdaq sold off .3%, the Dow Jones fell .1%, and the SP 600 finishing in the green up less than .1%.
Volume was pretty much even with yesterday but the final numbers show trading higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, with the tiny losses and great intraday support we got on the selloff, you can not call this a distribution day. So don't even try to count it as one.
Breadth on the NYSE was negative by a 9-7 margin and on the Nasdaq breadth was even.
Even though the market ticked down, once again, the IBD 100, my portfolio, and small caps outperformed. This has been the case ever since the short-term bottom in October and I don't see it changing any time soon. Another positive sign is seeing the action in Software, Semiconductor, and Biotech stocks starting to come back to life after a month plus of non-action.
I tell you what I have had it with the talk of metals, commodities, and anything related to oil. The amount of chatter on these stocks, with all the climax runs and extended charts, along with CNBC constantly covering this subject tells me these stocks are soon to be done in the near future. Look at my blog and all my metal stocks up 100% plus since Oct/Nov. Not too mention all the longs up 50% or more since then too. Metals, Gold, and Silver are just in the news way too much recently. So I continue with my thesis that the run in metals is soon over. I have been saying this for a week but the charts really support it now. ERS is up 560% in six months. Do you really think that can be sustained? It could go up 1000% but at this point in its chart a pullback to 33 seems possible. Then what happens who knows. All I know is I now have only 20% of my original position and I am letting it ride. Bottom line is most of the profits have been taken in stocks like this. This goes for all the Gold longs I have had since Oct/Nov.
Being a contrarian to the bull/bear newsletter numbers and the wall street journal poll, I am remaining bullish since most investors are bearish or not embracing this market. What they are FINALLY embracing is the gold, silver, metal, ore, and commodity stocks. They are bullish in a sector I am bearish. They are bearish on a market I am bullish. Do you see anything unique about that? If you don't, do me a favor and scroll down and check out my longs outperforming the market.
It will be an interesting day tomorrow and on Friday. I shall see you tomorrow. Great luck!
New Swing Longs: TZOO AOB HBE -- For more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-562 GIGM-254 MFLX-203 PETS-102 CBG-133 SIRF-129 NVDA-107 ATHR-112 AKAM-117 WIRE-188 LCC-133 EMKR-182 SMDI-116 CVO-104 TSCM-136 TGB-128 PEIX-108 IED-120 SPNC-92 NGPS LRCX-53 TTES-51 CYMI HEIA-45 CAMP FSTR STRL-43 KNXA-81 GEMS-41 IFO RSAS CTXS-59 ICTG-74 SPIL IHS-44 MTU WF EAGL-76 SMSI-61 IVAC-25 FRGB PNRG-52 ARS-56 RUSHA DECK ROK-27 STMP-26 NTAP KCS TYL TOMO-41 BWLD UIC-73 NCTY WST ZEUS-63 VLG KEX-51 SHFL BAS KDN-25 SPWR-44 POR TFSM-55 OMCL MERX-42 AIXD DIL SWW-41 ACTG-81 CCUR-30 SVNT MEL RNWK ILA CRUS ABI BDK SMF RAIL-73 SBAC-60 NKTR IT-40 CTCI CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: ZRAN GPRE EDGR SUNH MSLV SINA DTLK
Tuesday, May 02, 2006
Big Cap Dominated DJIA And The SP 600 Small Cap Index Lead The Way As Markets Rise Across The Board.
Broad based gains for commodity and oil stocks helped lift stocks higher, on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another six-year high and the SP 500 is near a six year high. Hard to say the economy is scary when that is happening.
The DJIA rose .6%, the SP 600 rose .65%, the Nasdaq rose .2%, the SP 400 rose .5%, and the leader today was the NYSE with a 1% gain.
Volume was about even from yesterday on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 5 - 3 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by an 8 - 7 margin.
The good breadth, along with the NYSE and DJIA hitting six year highs and the Nasdaq holding the 50 dma, shows that the bear side is still not the right side to be on.
Proving this, once again, is the IBD 100. It managed a nice 1.4% gain, well outpacing the market. Along with the IBD 100, my portfolio gained over 2.5% today, showing that if you are long the right stocks in a bull market you will always outperform the general market.
That didn't mean I didn't have stocks go down. I did. But these stocks were my low quality momentum trades. Each stock barely represent .5% of my portfolio at any given time. The higher quality stocks either rose today or pulled back on very quiet trade.
Taking all these facts in consideration, along with the negative sentiment still THICK in the air, I am still bullish on this market. The only thing missing is some real broad strength by big tech stocks. The small stuff is doing well, via the SP 600 but the Nasdaq is still lagging the commodity heavy NYSE.
I am very tired tonight as I biked 20 miles in sixty minutes and ran 10 miles in an hour and a half. I think I will run the half-marathon this year instead of the marathon. That way I will be able to run the whole 13 miles. Then next year my goal will be to run the whole 26 miles. Then after that it is a triathalon!!
Surf will be up tomorrow on my home (backyard) reef so I am not sure if there will be commentary as I plan on surfing the whole day. So don't be too upset if I don't show up tomorrow.
Aloha from beautiful Maui!
New Swing Longs: PKTR KCS CPX SPI FSTR DEIX BSM KKD CGR NAVI -- For more info on the longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-508 ATHR-111 SIRF-124 RATE-185 BBD-134 MFLX-192 BTUI-160 WIRE-187 GIGM-233 ASGN-107 PEIX-105 TSCM-129 LCC-121 IED-119 NXG-199 TGB-123 VGZ-143 BGC-99 WNR HOM-86 TGE-61 WF MDCC-42 TOMO-40 SMSI-58 COGO-61 UIC-72 NMR-44 TTES-45 SHFL ARS-55 AAPL GEMS-36 ROK-25 PETS-96 KNXA-75 BAS VTS-29 RADN-34 VIMC-80 SPIL AXE-41 EFII PNRG-50 FRGB EAGL-73 PKE BAM-36 BEAV-53 TRAD-53 LTM HEIA-39 KEX-51 WST ZEUS-62 CTXS-55 JOBS ICTG-70 MTU STRL-38 LRCX-43 IHS-42 TYL RUSHA STX-27 BWP DIL TMTA DRH-26 ECOL-43 CRUS ACTG-77 STKL-49 OMNI-55 ECLG-64 SA-27 EGO MXWL KGC-65 HNZ UBS-30 DB-29 WEBM STEL-25 SPSX-42 SWW-38 BE SFE VCP OMCL STD ILA TTEK NTO-78 LWSN PAY-50 DA BEAS-29 MWRK TCHC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: ALY TZOO AAU
Taking Some Small Profits (example for newbies): IVAC
Last Sell Of Long Term Winner: ASF -- Selling final amount with a 173% gain.
The DJIA rose .6%, the SP 600 rose .65%, the Nasdaq rose .2%, the SP 400 rose .5%, and the leader today was the NYSE with a 1% gain.
Volume was about even from yesterday on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 5 - 3 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by an 8 - 7 margin.
The good breadth, along with the NYSE and DJIA hitting six year highs and the Nasdaq holding the 50 dma, shows that the bear side is still not the right side to be on.
Proving this, once again, is the IBD 100. It managed a nice 1.4% gain, well outpacing the market. Along with the IBD 100, my portfolio gained over 2.5% today, showing that if you are long the right stocks in a bull market you will always outperform the general market.
That didn't mean I didn't have stocks go down. I did. But these stocks were my low quality momentum trades. Each stock barely represent .5% of my portfolio at any given time. The higher quality stocks either rose today or pulled back on very quiet trade.
Taking all these facts in consideration, along with the negative sentiment still THICK in the air, I am still bullish on this market. The only thing missing is some real broad strength by big tech stocks. The small stuff is doing well, via the SP 600 but the Nasdaq is still lagging the commodity heavy NYSE.
I am very tired tonight as I biked 20 miles in sixty minutes and ran 10 miles in an hour and a half. I think I will run the half-marathon this year instead of the marathon. That way I will be able to run the whole 13 miles. Then next year my goal will be to run the whole 26 miles. Then after that it is a triathalon!!
Surf will be up tomorrow on my home (backyard) reef so I am not sure if there will be commentary as I plan on surfing the whole day. So don't be too upset if I don't show up tomorrow.
Aloha from beautiful Maui!
New Swing Longs: PKTR KCS CPX SPI FSTR DEIX BSM KKD CGR NAVI -- For more info on the longs, go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-508 ATHR-111 SIRF-124 RATE-185 BBD-134 MFLX-192 BTUI-160 WIRE-187 GIGM-233 ASGN-107 PEIX-105 TSCM-129 LCC-121 IED-119 NXG-199 TGB-123 VGZ-143 BGC-99 WNR HOM-86 TGE-61 WF MDCC-42 TOMO-40 SMSI-58 COGO-61 UIC-72 NMR-44 TTES-45 SHFL ARS-55 AAPL GEMS-36 ROK-25 PETS-96 KNXA-75 BAS VTS-29 RADN-34 VIMC-80 SPIL AXE-41 EFII PNRG-50 FRGB EAGL-73 PKE BAM-36 BEAV-53 TRAD-53 LTM HEIA-39 KEX-51 WST ZEUS-62 CTXS-55 JOBS ICTG-70 MTU STRL-38 LRCX-43 IHS-42 TYL RUSHA STX-27 BWP DIL TMTA DRH-26 ECOL-43 CRUS ACTG-77 STKL-49 OMNI-55 ECLG-64 SA-27 EGO MXWL KGC-65 HNZ UBS-30 DB-29 WEBM STEL-25 SPSX-42 SWW-38 BE SFE VCP OMCL STD ILA TTEK NTO-78 LWSN PAY-50 DA BEAS-29 MWRK TCHC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: ALY TZOO AAU
Taking Some Small Profits (example for newbies): IVAC
Last Sell Of Long Term Winner: ASF -- Selling final amount with a 173% gain.
Monday, May 01, 2006
Crazy Ben And Mouthy Maria Have Dinner Together; Last Hour Selling Across The Board Hits Indexes For A Loss.
Last hour revelations from Maria (CNBC yapaholic) that her and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had a conversation where he revealed to her that "the markets misunderstood his statements last week" led to the broad stock market averages reversing gains and closing in the red.
Initially stocks were higher all day long, until that final hour when Maria let us know what she learned on Saturday night. The Nasdaq fell .8%, the SP 500 fell .4%, the DJ fell .2%, and the SP 600 fell .1%.
Volume was lower, across the board, from the heavy trade on Friday that was caused by MSFT's earnings disappointment.
The hardest hit sector today was the Investment Banks sector, with leaders such as LM BEN and JEF getting smacked. Other sectors hit hard were the Medical and Software groups. But overall most sectors pulled back quite calmly.
I think the one thing I want to focus on again is the media. Once again, we learn how the media operates. They ONLY serve their own agenda. Maria knew about this info on Saturday yet she waited till the final hour of the day to deliver the news????? Come on. Let's get real people. These folks serve their agenda.
The other thing I want to focus on is the credibility of the new Fed head. If this guy has the gull to talk about economic policy to some ditzy reporter at a dinner party then this guy has a long way to go to become the Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was. God willing, this man will learn to keep quiet, unless it is a scheduled Fed meeting.
Besides that I still think the market is looking fine. The short term trend in the Nasdaq is now down but it is still holding above the April support so I am not going to start freaking out like the rest of the perma-bears do on every downtick.
I hope I get a chance to go to some fun places this week as I start my new life of being single. So if I do not post commentary a couple of times this week don't blame me...
...ok blame me. I can take it. I am still young. You have at least another 50 years left of me. Get used to it!
New Swing Longs: IDSA MWRK BITS -- For more info on longs, go to Investors Paradise.
Adding To Positions: BDCO
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since initial purchase): GIGM-231 NVDA-106 AKAM-120 ERS-442 BTUI-155 ASGN-106 RATE-178 GNBT-110 TGC-239 VGZ-142 BWNG-133 NXG-190 AUY-145 TSCM-118 ASF-236 CCI-92 SPNC-94 TFR-87 HOM-73 IFO TOMO-33 ZEUS-61 OPLK-37 CYMI HEIA-37 BEAV-51 EAGL-70 UIC-67 KEX-49 WF NGPS VPRT IVAC-32 NCTY VLG RADN-31 BWLD BGC-76 FTK LTM CLZR-73 CTXS-54 WST GEMS-32 SPIL VTS-26 STX-26 ROK PKE MTU SHFL TGE-51 ICTG-69 SCVL TTES-40 BDCO GBN-65 PMTR OMNI-47 PEIX-85 SA HEC Q-52 XRTX-58 DCEL CNXT-63 SPSX-39 NTO-76 SYKE RAIL-68 KGC-61 DIL LII ECLG-57 COMS RNWK LWSN PAY-49 AIXD NKTR KNXA-70 SIM-49 GMTC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: MGPI
You Better Be Taking Some Profits: GIGM ERS TGC VGZ PEIX NXG AUY
Cut Loss Disaster: TXCC -- Selling other half with a 18% loss. First half was sold with an 8% loss. Notice, once again, this stinker was not an IBD quality stock.
Initially stocks were higher all day long, until that final hour when Maria let us know what she learned on Saturday night. The Nasdaq fell .8%, the SP 500 fell .4%, the DJ fell .2%, and the SP 600 fell .1%.
Volume was lower, across the board, from the heavy trade on Friday that was caused by MSFT's earnings disappointment.
The hardest hit sector today was the Investment Banks sector, with leaders such as LM BEN and JEF getting smacked. Other sectors hit hard were the Medical and Software groups. But overall most sectors pulled back quite calmly.
I think the one thing I want to focus on again is the media. Once again, we learn how the media operates. They ONLY serve their own agenda. Maria knew about this info on Saturday yet she waited till the final hour of the day to deliver the news????? Come on. Let's get real people. These folks serve their agenda.
The other thing I want to focus on is the credibility of the new Fed head. If this guy has the gull to talk about economic policy to some ditzy reporter at a dinner party then this guy has a long way to go to become the Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was. God willing, this man will learn to keep quiet, unless it is a scheduled Fed meeting.
Besides that I still think the market is looking fine. The short term trend in the Nasdaq is now down but it is still holding above the April support so I am not going to start freaking out like the rest of the perma-bears do on every downtick.
I hope I get a chance to go to some fun places this week as I start my new life of being single. So if I do not post commentary a couple of times this week don't blame me...
...ok blame me. I can take it. I am still young. You have at least another 50 years left of me. Get used to it!
New Swing Longs: IDSA MWRK BITS -- For more info on longs, go to Investors Paradise.
Adding To Positions: BDCO
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since initial purchase): GIGM-231 NVDA-106 AKAM-120 ERS-442 BTUI-155 ASGN-106 RATE-178 GNBT-110 TGC-239 VGZ-142 BWNG-133 NXG-190 AUY-145 TSCM-118 ASF-236 CCI-92 SPNC-94 TFR-87 HOM-73 IFO TOMO-33 ZEUS-61 OPLK-37 CYMI HEIA-37 BEAV-51 EAGL-70 UIC-67 KEX-49 WF NGPS VPRT IVAC-32 NCTY VLG RADN-31 BWLD BGC-76 FTK LTM CLZR-73 CTXS-54 WST GEMS-32 SPIL VTS-26 STX-26 ROK PKE MTU SHFL TGE-51 ICTG-69 SCVL TTES-40 BDCO GBN-65 PMTR OMNI-47 PEIX-85 SA HEC Q-52 XRTX-58 DCEL CNXT-63 SPSX-39 NTO-76 SYKE RAIL-68 KGC-61 DIL LII ECLG-57 COMS RNWK LWSN PAY-49 AIXD NKTR KNXA-70 SIM-49 GMTC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: MGPI
You Better Be Taking Some Profits: GIGM ERS TGC VGZ PEIX NXG AUY
Cut Loss Disaster: TXCC -- Selling other half with a 18% loss. First half was sold with an 8% loss. Notice, once again, this stinker was not an IBD quality stock.
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