Monday, May 22, 2006

Besides Becoming More Oversold, Nothing Has Changed.

Stocks Continued the selloff, after a mid-day bounce attempt, that started ten days ago, with the help of Fed President Richard Fisher indicating more innings are needed. The Nasdaq led to the downside with a 1% decline. This made it nine down days out of the last ten for the Nasdaq. Other markets did not fair much better, with the SP 400 down .78%, 600 down .73%, the SP 500 down .4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling .17%. Even worse the old leaders in the Steel sector took a 6% thrashing, the IBD 100 fell 2.7%, and the SOX index fell 4.2%. Leading stocks got nailed again!

Volume was lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq but don't take any comfort in that. The rally attempt started last Friday is now officially killed. The indexes undercut the lows of day 1's attempted rally. With that breadth was 2-to-1 negative on the Nasdaq and the NYSE.

The market is oversold but still very sick. World markets are selling off everywhere. This means that this is not the time to buy. If you have every major market in the world falling, I think that it is a safe bet to keep cash on the sidelines.

This oversold bounce failed, the next one might to. This much momentum to the downside can last as long as it does to the upside. When we will bounce no one knows and then, after that, we will more than likely find trapped longs ready to sell to get out of their sinking "investments."

With the Nasdaq trending below its 50 and 200 dma, it is very dangerous to initiate any new positions and the wise thing for the disciplined trader to do is nothing until the markets get a follow through day from an attempted rally attempt. We are on day zero.

This selling will stop but when? Who knows! Eventually it will all be over and we will have a nice tradeable bounce. That still probably will not be the kind of market that has TONS of leaders run out of the gate producing 100% winners left and right but anything other than this is good enough for me.

Stay disciplined. See you tomorrow.


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1 comment:

Y.Y. said...

spx got as high as 1274 thats the upper level of my short term bounce target of 1269-75 now another low risk entry for spx tommorow morning under 1250 with a stop @ major support at 1242-45
target very short term at least 1263
will take continueos trade above spx 1282 to stabilize the selloff