It was a pretty boring day on wall street, today, with the indexes finishing slightly down on a tiny pickup in volume. The "reason" for the slight down day according to CNBC and other market desk was that concerns over interest rates pressured stocks. LOL, OK.
The SP 500 fell .4%, the Nasdaq sold off .3%, the Dow Jones fell .1%, and the SP 600 finishing in the green up less than .1%.
Volume was pretty much even with yesterday but the final numbers show trading higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, with the tiny losses and great intraday support we got on the selloff, you can not call this a distribution day. So don't even try to count it as one.
Breadth on the NYSE was negative by a 9-7 margin and on the Nasdaq breadth was even.
Even though the market ticked down, once again, the IBD 100, my portfolio, and small caps outperformed. This has been the case ever since the short-term bottom in October and I don't see it changing any time soon. Another positive sign is seeing the action in Software, Semiconductor, and Biotech stocks starting to come back to life after a month plus of non-action.
I tell you what I have had it with the talk of metals, commodities, and anything related to oil. The amount of chatter on these stocks, with all the climax runs and extended charts, along with CNBC constantly covering this subject tells me these stocks are soon to be done in the near future. Look at my blog and all my metal stocks up 100% plus since Oct/Nov. Not too mention all the longs up 50% or more since then too. Metals, Gold, and Silver are just in the news way too much recently. So I continue with my thesis that the run in metals is soon over. I have been saying this for a week but the charts really support it now. ERS is up 560% in six months. Do you really think that can be sustained? It could go up 1000% but at this point in its chart a pullback to 33 seems possible. Then what happens who knows. All I know is I now have only 20% of my original position and I am letting it ride. Bottom line is most of the profits have been taken in stocks like this. This goes for all the Gold longs I have had since Oct/Nov.
Being a contrarian to the bull/bear newsletter numbers and the wall street journal poll, I am remaining bullish since most investors are bearish or not embracing this market. What they are FINALLY embracing is the gold, silver, metal, ore, and commodity stocks. They are bullish in a sector I am bearish. They are bearish on a market I am bullish. Do you see anything unique about that? If you don't, do me a favor and scroll down and check out my longs outperforming the market.
It will be an interesting day tomorrow and on Friday. I shall see you tomorrow. Great luck!
New Swing Longs: TZOO AOB HBE -- For more info on longs go to Investors Paradise.
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market(number is % gain since purchase): ERS-562 GIGM-254 MFLX-203 PETS-102 CBG-133 SIRF-129 NVDA-107 ATHR-112 AKAM-117 WIRE-188 LCC-133 EMKR-182 SMDI-116 CVO-104 TSCM-136 TGB-128 PEIX-108 IED-120 SPNC-92 NGPS LRCX-53 TTES-51 CYMI HEIA-45 CAMP FSTR STRL-43 KNXA-81 GEMS-41 IFO RSAS CTXS-59 ICTG-74 SPIL IHS-44 MTU WF EAGL-76 SMSI-61 IVAC-25 FRGB PNRG-52 ARS-56 RUSHA DECK ROK-27 STMP-26 NTAP KCS TYL TOMO-41 BWLD UIC-73 NCTY WST ZEUS-63 VLG KEX-51 SHFL BAS KDN-25 SPWR-44 POR TFSM-55 OMCL MERX-42 AIXD DIL SWW-41 ACTG-81 CCUR-30 SVNT MEL RNWK ILA CRUS ABI BDK SMF RAIL-73 SBAC-60 NKTR IT-40 CTCI CTEC
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: ZRAN GPRE EDGR SUNH MSLV SINA DTLK
5 comments:
hey josh, i enjoy your new swing commentary b/c i can look at the chart and try to understand what you are seeing. But you reco on FSTR yesterday i am not seeing in the chart, wasnt the buy point early in Dec and a follow on breakout early arpil when it broke above 20.08, i see the above avg voume patterns over the lat couple months but why buy it now, it seems like its late ? thanks
when markets are volatile like this i like to go back to re-read books to remind me about discipline(so i dont go chasing extended group like commodities) and besides all the O'Neil/IBD books I must say that I think Stan Weinstein's book(Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets) is excellent even though its almost 20years old, its still great. just thought i would pass it on for new investors looking to learn. it good to remind yourself of sell rules when the market has made a large multi-year run like it has...out, OR-kiter
However, with the tiny losses and great intraday support we got on the selloff, you can not call this a distribution day. So don't even try to count it as one.
IBD did, due to the increased volume. They now count 4 dist days for the Nasdaq. My stocks are still looking good, especially CTRN, although I am slightly worried on today's gap up.
BRD remember you need a 5th day of distribution to really start turning south...however, even in IBD they said that it didn't look like it was a distribution day but because of their definition they had to call it one.
i'm liking the action on HYC today and also ASML nice close. looking to go long on them, what u think josh. (also HGR nice bounce off moving avg, but more speculative as fundamentals look like crap)
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