After a weak Consumer Confidence number depressed stocks, a mid-day release of the FOMC meeting minutes was taken as good news by traders as they bid stocks up all the way to the close.
The SP 600 led the way with a 1% advance, the Nasdaq followed with a .5% gain, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP 500 were the laggards with .2% gains. The serious stand out in today's session was the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index with a 1.7% gain. The IBD 100 also managed a day of outperformance rising .8%.
Volume was much heavier than what it has been the past few sessions but was still well below the 50 day volume average for the indexes. That makes 14 in a row for the NYSE. Breadth was solid with advancers beating decliners by a 2-to-1 margin.
There were some nice action in today's rally. Even though this came on light volume it was nice to see such a mix of industry groups performing well. Food, Apparel-Shoe, Retail-Restaurant, Electronics-Semi, Computer Soft.-Medical, and Office Supplies were just some of the industries seeing decent gains today.
This industry action matches all of the pretty charts I am starting to get on a much more consistent basis. These pretty charts also have good fundamentals which makes me positive that there is still more room to go for these stocks on the upside. By just looking at my current holdings you can see things are going pretty well. Also by looking at my shorts, you can see that their downtrends are ending for most of them.
Traders simply have simply pushed their bets too far on the short side too soon. If this market is going to go into a big bear market you want the trend to be on your side. Even though the volume is low the markets are in an uptrend and you have to respect that. Just think about all those nice charts and gains traders have missed out on the past week because they were too bearish and thought those breakouts had to fail. The market is rewarding the contrarian investors; this time it is the bulls.
If you don't think it is too negative out there then take a look at the Consumer Confidence numbers today. Or better yet, take a look at the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. That one came in at the 3rd lowest level since they started tracking it in February 2001. If that does not tell you that the crowd is too negative, I don't know what else will. If you remember, the bulls and bears did barely cross in the II Survey published every Thursday in IBD, in June. Notice how we have been going up since then? So it could be too bearish out there still.
What worries me? The same stuff I keep writing about every night. We are overbought and we are going up on low volume. This low volume rally is the last thing I like to see. Stocks MUST go higher on higher volume or else this rally could be setting itself up for sellers to take control. With so much damage in old leaders a rotation is obviously taking place. How much time and damage we have to go through still is up in the air.
I don't like this low volume rally but I love the high volume breakouts in all the pretty charts it is giving me. Never let emotions get in the way of strict discipline. Losing your discipline will kill you in this market.
If you have not read the last five post, please do. There is more than enough information on the bear side to quench the thirst of the diehard bears. I have made the bearish argument for these indexes enough the past two weeks that I am not sure what else I can add.
So with that I say: Never short a dull market! Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: PRFT HCSG BMC RAH
Adding To Holdings: TRMA ISYS
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming (low vol. non-IBD excluded): PMTR-75 IHS-60 VLG-52 BTJ TRMA ISYS IMKTA RNST HSR CHINA PSPT DIGE GISX NEU HWAY IMA BMR AHS DGX TZOO DUCK WEBX INWK BRR EMS MA STEC ALTH SVNT LMNX BMRN TTEC KONA HGIC TRAC RMTI ZILG RMR
Shorts Outperforming (all): USG-46 NTE-32 GTRC-18 PDCO HCBK DSL XPRSA HYDL FDX USU HSY KG STNR CFC NGS
Completely Cover Shorts: APOL VB RS STLD SUPX IART BEC
Stocks On Radar Screan: PRXL ATRS VARI MOLX LEAP GIL DLA CPA SPSN BKD SMOD FRG MDRX HB CR GHDX TJX LYG BOOT APLX CMO
8 comments:
Having a hard time logging into IP this morning...
I cant log on either. I have told them this is unaccpetable.
This is pathetic. I don't appreciate this. What kind of opeation are we running.
I emailed Justin.
Site will be back up in 10 minutes.
Web hosting company restarted the servers.
Time for a new hosting company. This company is horrible. I hope the boys listen to me and get rid of these jokers.
Came to take a look from realmoney. Your picks are interesting but do you ever indicate when to close the position? Only half the story if you don't. And what is your performance with these picks?
I dont list closing of a position for free. Everyone who knows how to use the IBD style knows how I cut my losses. Always cut your loss with a close below the most recent support or a close below the 50 dma.
You want the stats for every single pick constantly? Pay me $30 a month and you can know everything. Until I get a paycheck from you, you can learn on your own when to sell.
If you are actually looking at the charts of the longs I am posting you should be able to tell where to cut your losses. If you are a fresh newbie, well I am not going to be able to help you at all unless you go to the IBD learning center and learn how to sell stocks. Only unprepared traders need to be told when to sell all the time.
If you want a babysitter, I can do that for you. Just send me a paycheck and I will hold your hand through everything. Or go to the Yahoo message board of one of the stocks I just went long. I normally tell people where to cut there losses, on the boards.
Good answer, you are a typical pumper without the balls to show the full story. They must be lining up to pay you 30 bucks.
pumper. LOL.
typical response from a poor investor.
You want me to work my ass of for free.
Enjoy your time struggling to invest, while I enjoy my life on Maui.
For every loser like you, I have 10 wonderful readers. Move on loser. I don't want you reading my blog. You can just check in every once in a while and check out all my stocks running up 100% gains plus in a bull market.
I am one hell of a pumper!! You all know me and my pumping!!! I am just pumping stocks all the time.
Me and my 100 holdings. Boy I must have a lot of work to do. Off to "pump" some more.
You must be the same loser that bashes RevShark all the time. I bet you complain to him to. You are such a strong man. What is it like to have no skills at investing? What does it feel like to have a 27 yr old kid make more money than you ever thought of?
I look forward to your future bashing of me on my blog. Feel free to rip me a new one.
Great luck out there finding winning stocks. I know you can't find them so I am sure you will be back online to get my "free" advise. You will be back for more. But when the service is for a fee, I am also sure you will be paying one day. I will be here for a long time. After a few years of seeing the big returns over the long run (stocks dont go up 100% in one day) you will be paying me just like you pay realmoney.com to bash there readers.
Aloha from paradise,
"Typical Pumper" :)
to bash there contributors...not readers. But I am sure you do that too.
Aloha, once again.
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