After spending most of the day in a coma, stocks started a late session rally only to end flat by the closing bell. There was plenty of news today on the economic front, however, nothing was market moving today.
By the end of everything, all of the indexes ticked down less than .1%. If you want a picture perfect snapshot of a dull day, today was the day.
Volume was a tad higher on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. With the choppy intraday trade and with a close that barely moved the indexes .05% today had the possibility of being a day of churning. It is too early to make assumptions; we have to wait till volume comes in on the downside before you could call this a churning day. And since volume was still below the 50 day volume average, it is really silly to call this anything other than pre-holiday trading ahead of a long weekend.
Breath was positive on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and basically flat on the Nasdaq.
August is finally over and by looking at the final numbers it was obvious all the negativity leading into this month paid off for the contrarians. The Nasdaq gained 4.4% for the month, the SP 500 2.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.8%. It proves, once again, don't listen or trust the media. When they get super-negative it is smart to bet against them. The bulls win this month.
The upcoming weekend is starting early with the markets flatlining today as the traders that can move the market have obviously checked out and have gotten a start on the 3-day weekend early. With that I don't expect anything exciting tomorrow. Volume should be some of the lowest of the year.
My final thoughts about the recent market is still centered around the bearishness I see out there. Everyone thinks that this rally is going to fail very soon; everyone. Or at least that is what it sounds like to me. I am seeing all the reason listed everywhere that I have listed here. The low volume, we are overbought, one of the worst month of the years, etc... All of that is known by most traders I talk, read, or listen to. I guess the market could make everyone right but somehow that seems unlikely.
One of the most interesting things I notice is the fact that this week was supposed to be historically one of the weakest weeks of the year. Go back to last week in my blog on Thursday or Friday; you will see that I listed some historical facts on how the last week of August has been one of the worst weeks the past 18 years. Well, how has the market done so far this week? Not too bad. Is that an omen for the upcoming month? If this was supposed to be one of the weakest weeks and we went higher, I wonder if we cant just keep building on this rally.
Ah, who cares? Whatever happens will happen. As you can see I have laid out both arguments and scenarios. That means I am ready for both situations. However, I am leaning for more upside due to all the obvious reasons. The most obvious being all the beautiful charts making high volume bounces or breakouts all over the place. I did not have that off the June rally, remember? Just go back and read what I was posting there. Facts are facts. Speaking of another fact: This is a very tough market!!
Tomorrow will be dead as I am sure traders are turning a 3-day vacation into a 4-day vacation. With that have a great Friday and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: BFIN ISIG MWRK ORB SMOD ICI
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming (low vol non-IBD excluded): CVO-141 VLG-52 SYKE-39 DA-33 HMSY-30 BWP-31 OMRI-25 VRGY IMKTA DJO INWK NITE EGN NEU TTEC IMA ALY IDXX PSPT LMT CXW DGX ISYS GISX SEIC KAI CTCM MA EMS MNG STEC AVCI FORR ABMD LMNX ALTH BMRN MFA WGA ZILG
Shorts Outperforming (all): ZRAN-23 PDCO DSL CPF EXBD HYDL USU KNOT SIGI CPE KMR
Completely Cover Shorts: JOYG BTH HTLD
Stocks On Radar Screen: HEI HEIA PLM OTD TIVO OLAB AEZ IGT GHDX GMTC MFN GEX
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