Monday, August 07, 2006

Stocks Fall On Lower Volume, Before The FOMC Meeting; Slowest Trading Day Since Fourth Of July.

Oil went leaping 3% today on the news of a shutdown of a BP oil pipeline in the Prudhoe Bay. That news along with the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow hamstrung stocks and all the major indexes fell for the second straight day.

The SP 600 led to the downside with a .8% loss, the Nasdaq fell .6%, the SP 500 fell .3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average only suffered a .2% loss.

Volume was much lower on the Nasdaq and the NYSE, offering some comfort to the bulls. It was more of a day with a lack of buyers than a day full of sellers. The volume was also around 25% lower than on Friday. This shows that investors are completely on the sidelines waiting for tomorrows meeting. This was the lowest volume day since the Fourth of July.

Decliners beat advancers on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and by a 2-to-1 margin on the Nasdaq.

The market really did not do much today that changes anything in the near term. The BP Prudhoe Bay pipeline was the major story all day. Along with the FOMC meeting being tomorrow all eyes are simply waiting for what Ben is going to do. There has been a lot of chatter recently about a pause instead of a rate hike.

Either way it doesn't matter the trend is down for the indexes. Few stocks are working and that is enough of a signal to stay on the sidelines and wait for better opportunities to present themselves. There are simply no bets of any significance that will be placed before the Fed announces the decision.

We are still very oversold on a lot of oscillators but at the same time we have some very high levels of pessimism out there. This conflict of emotions sure is showing up in the tape with all these gaps and reversals and go nowhere days. Until this ends, I repeat one more time, keep cash heavy.

Great luck out there. This market will give us a direction soon. Never fear brighter days are ahead.

New Swing Longs: NONE

New Swing Shorts: AEE CBST

Longs Outperforming: USEY-76 VLG-51 GPIC-40 CTCM WNR DGX HMSY IMA BOT MA DDS TTG

Shorts Outperforming: KNOT CRXL GTRC APOL EXBD NCI HTLD AME JOYG BPFH USG WSM AMAT MAFB BTH GYI XNPT PBE PII TXRH RCNI POOL VO IYT SUPX NTE ESIO PDCO WFSL GE BLK VXF VB WERN CSX FRC WTFC LHO DSL CNI IFX FWLT MAR CPF DDE HYDL RRGB FDX IJT IJS AHG HSY BEC SIGI ATPG

Cover Shorts: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: FISI VOCS FILE BDCO GIGM CKSW RPFG

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