Stocks bolted higher, thanks to data from the PPI that might indicate the Fed is done with rate hikes. Whatever the reason for the rise is I don't care. All I need to know is the facts and the facts state that the market had a follow-through day today and that the trend in the short term is now up. Knowing what the current trend is and not the reason for the move is how I make my money. Tomorrow CNBC will have everyone focused on the CPI. Let's see if the market can follow-through on today's gains.
Speaking of gains, all major market indexes put in an impressive day. The Nasdaq gained 2.2%, the SP 600 rose 2.1%, the SP 500 rose 1.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%. The big winners for the day was the Semi Index with a 3.7% gain and the Nasdaq 100 with a 2.7% gain. Leading stocks lagged the Nasdaq with the IBD 100 rising only 1.9%. Normally you want to see leading stocks outperform the indexes when you start a rally.
Volume was higher on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq by a pretty good margin over yesterday's levels. However, yesterday was an extremely quiet day. So no matter what happened today you would think volume would have picked up. The real question is how much volume came with this price explosion? The answer is NOT MUCH! Volume was below the 50 day volume average on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. LOL.
Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 5-to-1 margin and by a 3-to-1 margin on the Nasdaq.
If you check the best rallies during the past twenty years you will see that HUGE price explosion with volume are the stuff real rallies are made of. Not low volume short covering bounces. Some of the biggest and most volatile rallies happen in a bear market. The rallies that normally launch new bull markets have a TON of volume and trade well over the 50 day volume average. So far this one is not acting right. Not to boot that the best rallies also happen when the follow through comes within 3 to 7 days of the rally attempt; not 21.
Some rallies have worked fine from late follow throughs. However, these rallies don't normally last very long. The one thing to remember is that NO bull market has EVER started without a follow-through. In saying that, however, not all follow-through guarantee a bull market. So making sure the right leadership is at the top is very important. I don't see that leadership yet, with this rally.
An example is the failed June follow-through. That follow-through had terrible leadership in it with defensive sectors and old leaders leading. The rally follow-through that worked in October 2005 had plenty of tech stocks and innovative stocks with nice bases. The March 2003 rally was filled with commodity, high tech, and other exciting industries at the top when that rally started and volume was HEAVY on that follow-through also.
The one real positive for the follow-through attempt is all the distribution days that the indexes put in were wiped out by this follow through. I thought it was only a matter of time before the selling really took the indexes lower. The fact that they battled off those days has to be taken as a positive on the short term. The other positive is that the Nasdaq has regained its 50 dma line.
Hopefully you are keeping your watchlist updated and are now ready to take any positions in any stocks that breakout out from clean bases on strong volume. Also making sure they have a lot of the CANSLIM traits is extremely important too. Don't settle for junk.
Today was a bit of a surprise for everyone and I took a hit in my account today. Having a bad day is nothing to get worried or upset about. Thinking that you should be making great money in this market is just setting yourself up for disappointment. This is a traders and gamblers market. Not a market for making big money in. It is better to stay heavy in cash till the trend is clearly up. There will be plenty of time to get long if this rally is the "real" rally. Don't do anything stupid and chase performance. Make sure the stock is breaking out of a sound pattern.
There are not a lot of those right now. Most stocks are low priced pieces of junk moving, stocks breaking out of ugly bases, stocks under a ton of resistance, and the few that are shaping up need more time before they have a chance of breaking out correctly from pretty patterns.
The bears overconfidence/ego was finally brought back down to Earth today. The chatrooms I monitor and the message boards I read were full of overconfident and cocky bears. This move today should hopefully humble them and keep them quiet for a bit. If you were caught on the wrong side remember cut your losses, regroup, and stand pat in cash for a more clear opportunity.
It will come. Stay ready, patient, positive, and motivated to make some money. We could get a nice tradeable rally here. If we don't, no big deal. We will keep waiting till all the stars line up. I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: ALSK OMRI
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Outperforming (non-IBD low vol stocks excluded): AKAM-150 CVO-135 CTCI-60 IHS-53 BAM-36 VLG-49 TYL-26 SYKE-35 DLP-26 DSGX-54 WNR PSPT SEIC TRMA GES IMA HWAY HSR DDS RNST DGX CXW JTX ISYS MO DIGE LMT BRR MA FORR GISX
Shorts Outperforming: USG-49 GYI-24 BTH XNPT EXBD DDE HSY STNR KMP
Completely Cover Shorts: CRXL WSM PBE CXG VO GE ESIO CSX AF IFX VLTR LHO IJT IJS SBL
Stocks On Radar Screen: WEBX IIVI LMNX LNUX CLHB VSEA BID MLIN
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