Alan Greenspan...When Does His Term End?

Just joking, of course....I know when it ends.

The market is looking weaker and weaker but I still have plenty of good looking longs so I am not going to get too worried here. It is becoming obvious we might need to look for around 4% Fed Funds Rate to complete the cycle. I am not sure, but it looks like Alan is going after another bubble. This time, housing.

Whatever he does, it doesn't matter, just have great rules to protect yourself and your profits. No matter what, newbies, cut your losses at 5 to 7%, if your initial position goes against you. When you expect something to work in this kind of market environment and it doesn't, it is time to get out and ask questions later. A key set of sell rules will protect your profits and keep your losses small so you can keep coming back day after day.

New Swing Longs: AMED HITK REXI LNG ASEI CKH SKS BONT (another buy opportunity: RATE CAND RWY)

New Swing Shorts: PSRC MMM CBD

Aloha!

Confusing Day Overall (Not Good Not Bad)

The markets were very dull (less than 10 point move nasdaq intraday) and volatile intraday, making no progress that helps us analyze anything differently than we did yesterday.

I guess we wait till Alan sings his tune, then we can get back to worrying about something else.

All in all, a weird day. I had many new longs act well then, on the other hand, had many that reversed or stalled on HUGE volume. That is very negative. When breakouts start failing and reversing on heavier volume than the breakout, you have weakness in the market. Also, a lot of gold charts came up on my scans today and are near or breaking out of good sound bases. Not sure if that is good or bad for market. Do you? However, so many of my longs still look good and are acting well that all I can say is Huh?. Whatever happens, I am ready.

New Swing Longs: IMGC ABX GMRK ORA PANL ALTI IVN AWRE

Swing Long Positions With New Entry: Not posting this tonight. Too many. When you buy any breakout in this kind of environment you want to make sure you buy within the 5% pivot point of the top of the base and cut your losses when you are wrong. Just a reminder!

New Swing Shorts: SIVB CBRL MTLG PLUS PKZ

Aloha

Too Much Action In Individual Stocks

I have to be honest, I hope we are in a 1966-1982 kind of stock market. That way all the people that are calling for moon shots and crashes will wash out. I will never understand why people try to predict the future and ignore what the current action of the market is telling them.

Well I for one will not predict the future. I will just tell you the facts. Today was a good day for the indexes, especially the small cap and mid cap indexes. Volume was heavier than yesterday and SURPRISE a lot of stocks broke out of very sound bases. So all the negative people out there, that are not making money and instead are blaming the market, it is time to grow up and get with the long program. You should never be bullish or bearish. Just have positions that reflect current mood in market. If you follow the trend I guarantee you will outperform all the "value" investors and the "short" traders.

New Longs: GMXR PRAA RMD ORCC AMG AACC WSSI SIRI INFA BMRN ULTI CHCO ACC RBA

Longs giving ANOTHER good buy op if grabbed at pivot point: DRRX DENN CYBS SYKE RATE RWY TARR

I swear for the life of me, with charts like that, I have no clue why SO MANY PEOPLE are bearish.

There is always a Bull market somewhere in some sector.

Aloha!

Updated Swing Longs and Possible Swing Shorts

Indexes did nothing that inspired me to write about. So with that, if you want to know what I am thinking just read the last 5 or so post.

Swing Longs: EENC PCBC MHX PUMP CTCH CERS LTC

Postions with additional new entry: STJ TALX TPE TARR

Swing Shorts: SBNY IVC TSN BTH VMSI

Aloha

Friday Was Nasty Too But...

On Thursday and Friday I started to trim longs and put on some shorts. I am still holding around 45% of account in long positions but I am starting to get lots of short candidate charts. But now all of sudden everyone I talk to thinks we are heading into a recession. Boy oh boy, how opinions change so fast nowadays. I am starting to think the 1966-1982 market could be repeating itself. Cause from what I have learned from old time traders is that this happened a lot during that time. People thought we were going to the moon after an uptrend started, then it would finish. Then in the downtrend, shorts claimed control and shouted from the rooftops that all hell was breaking loose. Oddly, nothing happend the entire time. Just an up and down market like the one we are in now. However I am hoping for the 1994-1995 scenario but whatever happens is cool with me. Up or down or sideways, whatever. There is always a bull market somewhere, as Jim Cramer says. Currently it is oil, medical, and select technology sectors. Still a lot of good looking charts out there.

After the rebalancing of the Russell indexes Friday, my charts were so scewed that I had to look at the intraday volume stats to confirm if moves in these stocks were throughout the day or just EOD (end of day) rebalancing. Then after further thought I have decided not to initiate any new positions....almost. Three or four of these longs are too juicy to pass up, rebalancing or not. For the other short and long candidates, I have decided not to take another look at them, thanks to the Russell's rebalancing.

New longs: VTAL STJ CTRX IDIX TMY --all medical and one oil

Add on to original positions: ASTM STEM TIV TRGL GET DENN

Aloha!

Swing long and shorts

I am going to raise more cash tomorrow in my NYSE stocks. The nasdaq stocks I own still look good to really strong. NYSE sucks!

New Swing Longs (not so new): ACU HLEX KCS BRCM XRTX NICE IMNY BT

New Swing Shorts: BGC AZ JAKK HSC LUV AVID TNM NX

Remember, with shorts, you have to not just open a short at the open tomorrow. You have to either wait for a pullback (err...pullup) to key moving averages or the old high before entering the position. That is, of course, unless it is less than 5% from the ideal short opportunity. Then, duh, you short that ticker symbol.

KEEP GOING PISTONS

Aloha

Distribution Day. My Guard Is Up.

Well, amazingly, after analyzing my charts last night and looking harder I noticed some small problems (hence, my late night post yesterday) with some of my longs and did notice some shorts presenting themselves as good candidates. Today has now confirmed that NOW (not the past month and a half) we must be on-guard for lower prices. By habit I have sold 1/4 of all positions that have shown good gains or stocks whose charts have slightely faltered.

All indexes fell over 1% on a BIG increase in volume, cutting through some minor support levels. However you slice it, it was nasty! A 1% plus drops on a big increase in volume does happen quite often in uptrending markets but if you get one or two more in rapid succession in the next week you can be certain the upside momentum is over and the market could fall into consolidation or worse yet start a new leg down. Whatever happens be ready to have tight cut losses and stay disciplined.

$60 oil can only do nothing but negative things to the market. And the second negative about this bull rally, in hindsight, that we have had since May is that even though every trader I know thought we would not go much higher or were about ready to crash, every fund manager that I know was almost too bullish. Including me. The bullish/bearish newsletter writers report that I follow in Investors Business Daily showed that as the rally went higher bulls kept coming on board. That is not what you see at a hard bottom. And also bears never exceded bulls in the survey at the May bottom.

I will be back to find the diamonds in the rough on the long side and some shorts that I might like to put on, as I significantly raised my cash position at the close and will continue to raise in the morning.

GO PISTONS

Please read the post below this first

No matter how I see the market shaping up, it doesnt mean we can not pullback a little here. We have gone up for long enough to expect a shakeout of some sorts. But this current basing/consolidation looks very good in every index chart out there. Still one more time for clarity, it doesnt mean we wont pullback.

And I guess I do like some stocks for a short swing: ZMH CVG NNI ELK add that to QSII on 6/2.

Also since I have had so many stocks working out beyond my expectations. I now will show you one of my longs that failed badly today: DHC. I wasnt long much more than 2% of this in the first place and after it breached the 50 dma on 6/20 and made a lower close than the close of the day I bought it 3/4 was sold already. But still seeing that loss on the other 1/4 is still UGLY! Hey it happens. Sometimes the casino gives away a lot of money, but over time they definitely come out ahead.

Now read the post below this one.

ALOHA

A very quiet, slow, and strong market.

Why am I not getting any good short opportunities? I was asking myself this question today, seeing is how some people I know have mentioned we might be churning here instead of getting ready to resume the rally. I studied their opinion and after reading past notes in my personal diary, I have come to the conclusion that this is base building to move on to higher ground.

In the past when after a rally we start moving sideways and churning I will get very few stocks showing excellent entry points, unlike now, and always have been able to find shorts. Since I still am finding good long patterns and no good short patterns that is why, for now, I in no way think that we are churning. Plus we have not even hit new highs for the year yet in the Nasdaq. Churning usually happens after a new high is hit. And one final point, volume would be much much higher, if we were in fact churning. Look at volume on Nasdaq on 2000, 2004, and 2005 tops.

New Swing Longs: OPWV ADEX ESC SCI MTCT HRAY SOLD GET MOT LFL FTEK EURO HSTM

Current Holdings Offering New Entries: DCAI KNDL THOR ASR TAYC RYAAY JMDT RATE SIRF NICE CFK

Another Sideways Day

Summer time is a very uninteresting time for the markets. But there is always stocks that will move on good volume anyways, so dont let the boring less than 50 point moves in the DJIA put you to sleep.

I have been busy dealing with personal matters, recently. I apologize for the short blog entries.

New or Add-on Swing Long Holdings: CETV CYBS ASR JNPR SYKE BMR NR RWY ABP SPNC WAB UPCS. Some of these longs are extended, so slight pullback will provide a safer risk/reward ratio.

Another Interesting Day. It Is Never Boring

Even though I have been selling some longs I still am finding plenty of new ones to replace the others. This is the kind of action you like to see during a strong uptrend. Another positive sign was the intraday support we got on the indexes. We keep making these very nice tail patterns (look at an SP500 daily since May) on the indexes. That is what I like to see.

Swing Long Positions: KEYW WLT WAB COGT MCEL TMY OIIM PLL UPCS CVTX SSTR TAYC

Longs for Monday

MTH CHCI MDRX PTG E ENR PRGS WAB NCTY WEL VRTX CMRG ABP NR CVTX ALEX UPCS BCON MSCC FLOW BMD LQI IVX CTSH UDR BMR LAF TPE AIB SPNC CMD AIX TGE MCC AMS GMXR FCEA

Way too many.............Has to be a bull market.

Another Up Day

If you read my post last night, today should not have been that surprising with the markets positive close. Candles that print like that on a daily in an uptrend is a beautiful thing.

The markets were up today on a nice increase in volume, just like yesterday. I dont have much new to add. It was just another good up day in a bullish market. I believe there have been 3 key reversal days in the Nasdaq since the May 4 bottom. That is what you see in bull markets. Once again only longs tonight, because I cant find those high reward/low risk shorts.

New Longs: ASFI HOLX WSTC DSL XWG ACR WTW PHCC EFII WAB APCS SIRI CHRT

Postions owned giving new buy opportunities: PRGS VIVO FOXH GIGM TXCC TERN NTES CY THQI WCI BMD UGP

A Very Bullish Intraday Reversal

The indexes opened higher, went lower, then higher again to close with gains on a 20% increase in volume from the day before. The indexes, on a daily chart, has made a "tail engulfing" pattern in price today. That is a very bullish sign. It shows that bears tried to take control by taking the market lower than yesterdays lows then the buyers stepped up and bought/bid it up to the old highs. The other positives is the quiet sideways action which is working off the overbought condition with time not price, all the beautiful longs I am getting on my scans, and the still negative sentiment (though not nearly as bearish as it was) I see in chat rooms. One other thing is I have a short scan and it is still finding almost zero low risk/high reward short setups. That is so bullish it is ridiculous. I should still be getting a handful here and there. But I am not.

New Swing Longs: HOS SYNM TIV WCI BABY THQI DENN CWP ICA UGP

Postions holding setting up new buys: SCVL CIB THE FOXH ASTM TERN DESC AIR BCON UNWR ILMN BMD GIGM PTMK SYKE STEM ARRS

All the stocks under "positions holding setting up new buys" have all been mentioned in this blog. To find them look at the chart and find a high volume up day on heavy volume then look at that date in the blog and you can see there it is.

ALOHA

Boring Day for Indexes, but Exciting Day for Longs

The market is doing its normal summer thing, but in the meantime there are a lot of small stocks still acting very bullish.

I am now long over 60 stocks and short 1 (QSII today) which tells me that even though market is going nowhere it probably wont be for long. Which means, I expect an upside breakout.

My commentary will be short today as a south swell has hit Maui.

New Swing Longs: TDY DSCM KSU SDAY ISRL STV AMS

Postions owned creating new buying op (SOME NEED PULLBACKS): SMTS LSCP DO CLHB XXIA ENG BCON STEM GNSS DESC RGCI SPSS UHAL

You Can Tell It Is Summer Time

Living on Maui, it becomes quite obvious when school is out and summer time has started. For further confirmation, today's action in the market proves it. Looking at the past 20 summer months in the market it becomes clear volume slows down, but the markets rise a lot of times. Goes to prove another thing; never short a dull market.

The market wasn't really that dull it was just that my scans were. Most of the charts that popped up today are stocks I am already long just creating another buy opportunity. As for new longs this was the slowest day since the beggining of the rally, for my scans.

New Longs: SGK--small pullback needed, GWR, MCEL--spec small position long

Positions giving new buy points: HCA CLHB XXIA NGS DO PETS RADN LMS

Have a great night.
ALOHA

My Weekend Thought: I don't have enough money to take all these LONGS!!!

All I have to say, this weekend, after looking at the charts in my personal scans after the past week is...we went down????

You could have fooled me.

Even though the indexes moved down to sideways for the week, it was a great week for individual stocks in my portfolio. I am finding it impossible to keep up with all the great stocks popping up on my scans. Therefore, I am leaving money on the table by not having enough to participate in this wonderful rally that started Arpil/May.

I recently cut my long exposure but after this weekend it look like I will be 200% long again. There are just too many individual stocks making large moves. DSTI ABLE GEOI are perfect recent examples.

Once again, there are tons of longs to choose from, after Friday's bell.

NEW swing longs: RCRC DO RRC NGS PETS SCUR DESC

Already taken swing longs setting up again: USLM JDO OMR BLUD BCON PLUM SKS ARMHY

LWAY is also a great stock that broke out on huge trade Friday. It definitely needs to pullback to around 13.50 to make a safe long.

Aloha, Have a great weekend, and I will be back on Monday!

Long Swing Trades

USLM KEP BDCO DESC ILMN ENTU NSM LBTYA LSI TRGL ARMHY WEN PLUM DSTI

Extended and need a pullback for safe entry: ILMN ENTU DSTI

Have a great night

Aloha

Despite pullback, Bulls still look in control

The indexes rallied today with a pickup in volume (although slightly). My market thesis, as long as Greenspan doesnt raise rates three to four more times, remains the 1994 to 1995 market scenario. If Greenspan does something that stupid, who knows, maybe 66-82 markets. Whatever. Just play the trend.

Did you see the trend today on DSTI BDCO GEOI MXC ABLE. Today was one of my best days since a day in April 2000 (I've had three days like this, the past month or so). The stocks were up 60, 30, 17, 21, and 7 percent. DSTI has been written about in my blog on April 21 and 27. On the 27th or soon after, I commented on how it was the prettiest and most properly constructed out of all my longs. Today, I sold 1/4 of DSTI, MXC. GEOI and BDCO, I still have all of original positions due to super strong and pretty chart patterns. ABLE took a quarter off table a while ago, but still have rest.

And it is not like that is all. I am long a lot of stocks, still, that have beautiful uptrends.

The market is acting very healthy, still, and there are just too many nice charts to not play this uptrend. We are either topping (doubt it) or have much further to go.

I just hope Greenspan stops with another rate hike or two.

I will be back later with more longs cause God knows I am getting a lot of candidates in my scans.

Aloha.

Trimming some longs and 1966-1982 History

I have been cutting some long exposure the past two days, but at the same time buying some stocks too. Even though I think the market has further to run, a pullback is needed as I have been saying for a week or so.

I read an interesting article in IBD today about this market maybe being like the 1966-1982 market. If that is the case the article showed all the leading stocks and how they performed during all the uptrend bull rallies along the 16 year consolidation.

The point I think it makes is no matter what you think of the market, just play the trend and make money.

Some of the winners were:
66-68--Digital Equip. (351%), Milton Bradley (369%)
71-73--McDonalds (438%), Winnebego (377%)
75-77--Waste Manag. (900%), Houston Oil (980%)
80-81--WMT (966%), Southwest Air (269%)

I love history!!

More "buying" time needed during consolidation

For such a "weak" market, the longs that I have in my portfolio are acting really well. Why do I say weak? Because in all the chatrooms that I monitor everyone thinks this market has topped and is ready to make new lows SOON.

Well, I doubt that. To get my opinions please read yesterdays post.

I have a headache from a surfing injury (10 stiches) so sorry for the late post.

New longs for swing: VIVO--pullback, COHR--again, BFAM--cut loss w/ 50dma break, MXC--poke this crazy stock, SSNC--again, nice b/o, ADVNB--3 day breakout, FOXH--again, 34.25 cut loss, WFR--pullback, ENTU--again, VRTX--cut loss 12.75

Aloha

Pullback welcomed

Today's intraday reversal was nasty, without a doubt. The bulls (me) have been getting a little too excited and a pullback like todays was a wake up call to be more cautious. I was looking for dip buyers to come in the last hour. That did not happen.

Today's reversal on heavier volume is nasty but is it enough to sell all long positions. Absolutely not. I still have most of my longs acting really well but did raise more cash today on some of my laggards. One reversal day does not make this a top. We will have to see if there are more down days on an increase in volume in the indexes and stocks start breaking key supports, before I get bearish. Remember, I like to follow the trend, no matter how scary one day can be. Which, btw, did not scare me too much today.

I saw a lot more bears start calling the top today which signals to me this rally still has some legs to go probably. People are still very bearish after the whole move up since April/May bottom, in the chatrooms I montior.

While they will continue their bearish stance, I will continue to make money on the long side as they are still presenting the best charts to play.

As weak as today seemed, oddly enough, one of the strongest sectors showing up in my scan of great charts today is ELECTRONICS. I would have figured with the nasdaq down today, they would not have performed well. But they did along with MEDICAL.

New Long Position Swings: RCKY COHR RVSN SGMS API ARMHY MXO SSNC CAND

Aloha

Besides the LONGS KILLING IT, nothing new at all

GFIG TGE BDCO made my Monday, LOL.

Nothing new about today's market. It looked like consolidation, especially with the lower volume. If you want to know how I see the market, read the past 5 or so entries. That should keep you up to date.

Surprise surprise...longs continue to work

Longs: TGE SRDX ELOS CENT CLFC HTRN NCTY BDCO NGPS AMRI CTRP PACT ERS LMS SYKE

If you are a regular reader of this blog you will know that I have mentioned many of these recently as longs. Which shows that the longs continue to breakout and then base before breaking out again. What a nice uptrend we have.

Aloha

Weekend Thoughts

Was Friday the start of something scary for the bulls? Was it just a pullback? Are we going higher?

Well, I, honestly, don't know. What I do know is that volume contracted, on all the indexes, from yesterday. So we can not say that institutions were heavy net sellers on Friday. Plus there are still too many charts that either hold up above key support areas or keep breaking out. With all the good chart patterns and how quickly the bears have come back out after ONE DAY, I still remain bullish on stocks. I follow trends and the trend is up. Now if within the next two weeks we keep selling off 1%+ and volume starts to pick up on the downside and we rally on lower volume then I will be bearish. But until that happens I still remain very bullish, tho not too bullish. I was 200% invested a week ago. That is down to about 120% now. And after finding more charts tonight and knowing there will be more next week, I am ready to go back on full margin if the markets continue this uptrend.

If there is one thing about me you will NEVER see. It is me going against an intermediate trend within the long term and short term time frames.

Once again my longs continue to act well, even after Friday's mild declines on lower volume.

New Swing longs: GFIG NTES HLTH CENT PACT / FADV BBD TCI. GIFG and NTES are the fundamental kings in this list.

With the way ABLE and GEOI have been performing in my portfolio (both up 50%+ in a very short time frame), I thought it would be smart to take some new positions in more small oil stocks that are making high volume breakouts or bouncing off the 50 dma on heavy turnover. TGE GDP BCON BDCO.

I will see you on Monday
Aloha

Market feels like 1995.

I just want to make some comments on why this market keeps going up. It keeps going up going because everyone is looking for that pullback that is supposed to happen. Well like I said yesterday, since everyone is looking for it, we are probably not going to get it. So that sums up how I feel about this market currently.

Now I am seeing a lot of similarities between this market and the 1994/1995 markets:

During that time inflation was low, inflation is historically low currently.

Rates after being raised steadily a full year came to an end, rates currently according to a Fed official is "in the 8th inning."

During the rally pessimisim was high just like it is now.

Everyone was expecting pullbacks the whole way up in 1995. People are already talking about it now. lol

During the start of the rally in 1994 there was not a 2% move in any of the indexes until September of 1995. Currently I have heard of people saying, "they will not believe the rally until the market is up 2% on heavy voluem."

At the start of the 1994 move there was a lot of beautiful charts in retail and technology. This current rally has a lot of beautiful charts in retail, tech, airline, medical, and consumer stocks.

Earnings at companies were growing. Earnings are huge in some of Investors Business Daily's top stocks.

The indexes were up from 25% to 40% and a lot of people missed out on the 1995 bull market. And a lot still missed out on Jan to June 1996 bull market.

The trend is your friend, my friends.

Longs swing trades: JDO--again, needs to take a break, XXIA--again, needs a small consolidation also, OPWV--again, 16 a better buy, ITU--high volume breakout, BBD--extremely high volume bounce off of 50 dma, ASR--again, high volume bounce off of 50dma and building base on base pattern, NNI--again, nice place to add to, AMOV--again, tiny tiny float, killer fundamentals, excellent chart pattern, KNDL--nice breakout above flat base, LMS--another breakout to a new high, PETS--high volume 50dma bounce, CIB--high volume bounce off 50 dma, ARTC--breakout to new high, CY--heavy volume move above May resistance, CPTV, CMRG, CONN



Aloha

Long candidate possibilities

Here are some more stock that are showing excellent chart patterns and are at buy points or after a pullback will be at one.

New swing/position longs: DCEL INCX MDKI TEO ECIL SIRF TCI HTG

Longs in new buy positions that I have mentioned already: RADS PWAV CAND INNO TERN CNMD AWGI CONN RG

See you tomorrow,
Aloha

Indexes remain strong, starting to see decent pullbacks in individual charts

The indexes all had very decent days, considering the late afternoon decline that showed up. I have a lot of stocks pulling back finally, so we may be finally starting a pullback soon on the indexes. If we do not pullback that just tells me this market is so strong and this is what you see when everyone expects a pullback. The nature of everyone thinking it is time to rest makes the contrarian play of "markets keep making new highs" quite possible.

However, with taking small TINY profits today and cutting some laggards, I have still found some great individual charts out there.

I hope everyone had a great trading day.

Swing/position longs: DCAI--again, GEOI--again, still can buy a little here, lots of upside potential, HURC--breaking to new highs on strong volume, COH--breakout to new high on strong volume, DHC--again, breakout to new high although on low volume, ELOS--breakout on heavy volume to make new highs, fundamentals of this company is excellent, ADEX--extended after breakout, buy as close to pivot point as possible, if possible, KEYW--breakout to new 3 month high on strong volume.

Check back in the morning for more speculative plays.

Aloha