Thursday, November 30, 2006

Stocks Flatline On Very Heavy Volume; Churning Or Accumulation?

Today was a day of uneventful economic numbers and listless trade, as markets pretty much ended the day the way they started. Early morning weakness was supported intraday, once again, showing that dips are still to be bought.

At the close the DJIA fell .04%, the Nasdaq fell .02%, the SP 500 rallied .08%, and the SP 600 led the way with a .3% gain. The IBD 100 kept pace with the small caps, gaining .3%. Leading stocks are leading. Nothing to complain about there.

Volume was much higher on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq. I am not sure if this is churning or if there is accumulation happening underneath. Churning because there has not really been any hardcore evidence the market has shaken off the selling from Monday. Accumulation because advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE and the Nasdaq and the indexes closed in the upper half of their intraday trading range.

A close above the recent highs proves this was accumulation, further deterioration to new monthly lows proves that it was churning. Only AFTER the fact will we know what today truely was. We just have our data and have to take the facts and prepare a game plan for either outcome.

For the month, the bears were left looking foolish again, with the DJIA rallying 1.2%, the SP 500 rallying 1.5%, and the Nasdaq and SP 600 leaping 2.7%. There was nothing bearish about this month, besides Monday. All the other bearish chit-chat by the douche-bags that get off on being bearish was trounced by all the stocks that made 25% plus gains in very short periods of time all month long.

Nothing happened today that changed anything that I have already written about. If you have not read the last three post before this most recent one, I would go over all of them.

Basically, it still feels like we are overbought and that the bulls are tired and the market needs a rest. However, all indexes are still in a solid uptrend and I have learned that it is never wise to trade against the trend. Until the trend is a solid downtrend, there is no reason to be bearish or to be going short. Especially when you are holding 240 stocks and you only get ONE!! clear "dump this stock" signal. And it was one with gains.

Until this slowing uptrend actually turns into a downtrend, I would remain a friend of this trend, no matter how overbought we are. Just don't be buying stocks on margin all the way up here. You should have done that in August, after the follow-through day. Never argue against a follow-through day. Wait for it to be proven wrong.

In August NOBODY believed in this rally. I barely did. But I kept with my charts and now I am sitting pretty with some good gains in some good stocks. A lot of those gains have had partial profits taken off the table and the money has now rotated into the newer buys. This is how it should be. This is a sign of a healthy market. It is still healthy; just a bit overbought.

One more day to go this week and we are done. I will see you tomorrow at Investors Paradise. I hope you have a great day. ALOHA!

New Swing Longs: AZS SGZ CLRT THK TTG ISBC

Adding To Current Longs: MAIL QI

New Swing Shorts: NONE

**Number is % gain since long taken. Only stocks up 25% have number.**

Longs Up On The Day: PTT-65 HRT-41 AOB-84 PSPT-38 CXW-35 SVNT-88 CHINA-75 BAM-52 ACP-25 INWK-52 IHS-87 JST-51 DIVX-38 HRZ-70 DKS-27 IGLD-51 MA-105 IDEV-43 ALTH-75 CCOI-39 REGN-30 KHDH-50 CMT GIFI MAIL ININ SKX FTEK RRC PRFT TCHC CRT BMC RBN IMKTA SQM SUAI VCLK ICE UCTT CCO ACTU DECK LWA MCRS COH RJET AOI BLUD HMSY IIG FFH BMA ISE BOT CNH NSTC TSG WTS CVLT ULTR QI ICFI MOS NRF IWOV SFL AW OEH NHP SCI AYE HNZ ALSK MNG CMCSA KO ADBE INPC NU MCDT MRB ASML OMCL RWT BITI RVSB AFT GMTC BUF ECGI

Short Up On The Day: ELP

Stocks On Radar: ALY AFAM TLF MCF SUPX SBH HTZ BKC KOG HINT WTSLA SA MEND SWKS PXP TWIN

Take All Your Gains: CPAK

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