Even though it was a post-holiday shortened session, the market still managed to offer some early morning fireworks via the US Dollar. The dollar's steep decline against foreign currencies weighed on stocks early but the obvious strength of this market was once again put on display as indexes lifted well off their lows to close with respectable losses.
At the close, the DJIA and teh SP 500 led the way to the downside with a .4% decline, the Nasdaq lost .2%, and the SP 600 lost .1%. The IBD 100 matched the Nasdaq with a .2% loss. The good news is that it did not lead with losses.
Volume was, obviously, much lower on both indexes, with it being a half session. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 8-to-7 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
Friday's move lower completed a week where the Dow fell 62 points, or 0.5%, from its all-time high. The S&P 500 gave back a fraction of a point for the week. The Nasdaq rose 14 points, or 0.6%, during the four sessions. The SP 600 was in the middle of the pack with a .4% positive return. A mixed yet calm week.
Nothing changed today that hasn't been mentioned here before. All week long it has basically been the same story: The market is very strong, my stocks are doing extremely well, and growth stocks are doing very well and are now outperforming both value stocks and the broad market. Yes, we are overbought on multiple oscillators and the VIX is producing some low numbers but nothing says we can not get more overbought and get a lower reading in the VIX. Price and volume are ALWAYS your first and last piece of information you need, when it comes to telling you when to buy and when to sell.
The only other negative I can see is something IBD hit on being the fact that a lot of laggards are making moves. That is true but I don't see a lot of those breaking out from very solid bases. It is when I start getting a lot of stocks breaking out of very green and pretty charts that I start to get worried. I am not there yet, even though IBD has hinted at it. If you were not around this blog in March and April then I guess you are not familiar with that situation yet. This also happened in Feb/March 2000 and at the end of 2003. I don't see this pattern quite yet. Is it getting close. It looks like it but until I start actually seeing sub $10 stocks breaking out everywhere I am not going to get too nervous just yet.
However, the action in stocks like PNTR, ZVUE, EFUT, and OBCI are always a reason to throw up the caution flags and take careful notice of a rally. The fact that stocks like these are making these kind of moves is obviously a warning that speculative money is getting active.
Next week things should get back to normal, with a full five days of trading returning. Black Friday will be digested, along with the Thanksgiving leftovers. Maybe traders will take off the weight by "running" stocks. Whatever happens, I don't care. I am ready for whatever Mr. Market is ready to throw my way; it can either be gains or losses, it doesn't matter.
I hope you had a festive and memorable Thanksgiving. I want to congratulate my partner in crime Chris Maye (marketspeculator) on his new baby. Your life as you know is now officially over. For the next 18 yrs. minimum everything you do now revolves around your baby....and our website. LOL. Congratulations!
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: GRC RHA
New Swing Shorts: NONE
**Number is % gain since purchase. Only stocks up 25% have a number**
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): MA-113 PTT-71 XING-27 CHINA-72 IGLD-35 DIVX-32 ICE-35 CPA-46 INWK-62 SVNT-73 FTEK-37 WGA-30 GVP CMT LQDT VCLK QDEL INAP LWAY IMA TSRA FFH MIKR APLX UAUA WTS SQM BEZ BONT VDSI BEBE AHS COH LTM DKS BMTI CVLT ULTR HOTJ AZK OME
Stocks On Watchlist: GES RKT TLF AZS SGZ XIDE GOAM
Completely Cut Your Loss/Take All Your Profits: WEL MWRK
4 comments:
josh do you still have any PRFT? i don't see it listed...
me-took some profits ...still holding 1/3 of position.
do you think that XING is a good add at the 50dma or just a trade if it pulls back again?
any thoughts on GRRF?
happy thanksgiving weekend! BTW nice holiday post.
best,
jeff
Oops. Sorry. I left that one out because it was up so little with little volume. That one and RJET was left off.
Good eye! I see I can't get anything past anyone or everyone. :)
I am still holding around 70% of my long. No big reason to sell yet.
It could be w/ XING. I am not because BOP isn't green or close to max green and volume is lacking on this bounce. I need volume.
GRRF: I hope it bases for at least another three days and then hopefully...a breakout.
Happy Thanksgiving and Holidays to you as well, Jeff.
I appreciate your appreciation of the Thanksgiving post. I don't hide my feelings about this great great great country.
Jeff, in the future, if you would not mind, please post at Investors Paradise.
In one more month this blog and the stock picks will no longer be free.
I am upgrading my service to make it available to individuals who are ready to trade for a living.
I believe my stock returns and picks are superior to almost any other service out there and the paid service will go into a TON more detail about longs, shorts, partial sells, complete sells, and the reasons why stocks are on a watchlist. There will be much more but this is just the beginning.
With a paid service I will be devoting more time to being online and will also be able to help individuals with their stock holdings. Doing all of this far away from Wall Street with no hidden agenda.
josh,
i'll be interested to see what you have to offer with the membership level(s).
i've been checking in with your blog at least twice a week and following some of your success.. i know there's ALOT of garbage stock pickers out there too..
if, the paid service can provide a more succinct list of picks, or a rating system of sorts, for a trader/investor type like myself, then i'm there.
I am not yet ready to trade for a living, currently my cash account is still too small , under 200K, and the far majority of my funds are in IRA's and the like at a good fund/ETF house. That may change going forward.
As for trading full-time, i still really like what i do for a living, i'm freelance too, so that has it's benefits.
With that said, however, i'd love to see some annualized data for your picks and a method for someone like me to whittle down the 5-10 "longs" that you post almost daily in your new service.
Josh, i like your commentary and the discipline in your trading method.
looking forward to the release of the new service.
was gonna go over to IP. but didn't know where to post this one! see you there next time.
best, jeff
josh,
i'll be interested to see what you have to offer with the membership level(s).
--I just listed what I am going to offer.
if, the paid service can provide a more succinct list of picks, or a rating system of sorts, for a trader/investor type like myself, then i'm there.
--I am going to list which stocks are CANSLIM goes, CANSLIM so so, CANSLIM do not touch, Speculative goes, speculative do not touch. I will tell you when to go big and when not to go big on certain picks. Trust me there is going to be a lot more detail.
With that said, however, i'd love to see some annualized data for your picks and a method for someone like me to whittle down the 5-10 "longs" that you post almost daily in your new service.
--You want annualized data? Then you can track. So far I have offered TONS of people the chance to. NONE have taken. Have you noticed NONE I mean NONE of the greatest traders out there have a data for their personal ports. Only recently do they offer it. Until I am worth $5 million, I am not going to open a portfolio that will strictly ONLY be for trading. I live on Maui. It is expensive. I have to take from my accounts all the time. Do you want me to pick great stocks or waste three hours of my day figuring out what my gains are every month before I take out expenses? But don't worry I will let you know which stocks should be loaded up on like HRZ RMTR and the CANSLIM great charts and which ones should be a nibble and which one should be a complete avoid.
was gonna go over to IP. but didn't know where to post this one! see you there next time.
--Just post it anywhere. Get used to that forum now. It will be the forum used for the paid site. It is the best kind out there. I hate using this thing-Blogger.
Take care of yourself, Jeff.
Aloha, Joshua
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