Monday, March 25, 2013

Cypress Bailout Dominates Headlines as the Market Cools

This uptrend is hanging by a thread, but continues to find just enough support to halt any correction. It is very easy to blame the Dutch Finance Minister even after clarifying his statement. However, even after clarifying his statement the market still couldn’t find its way back to positive territory. LNKD wiped out Friday’s gains while V broke through a buy point. SPLK, V, AMBA, and LL broke out of bases on strong volume. The fear is will they end up like LNKD wiping out Monday’s gains? Questions only tomorrow will bring and we’ll continue to plug along in this uptrend until we get a signal of a possible change. There was quite a bit of noise over the Cyprus bailout and it being the new template for future bailouts. From a trading perspective we do not care one way or another. Our rules will guide us with the help of prices. However, it begs the question why would you ever have a deposit account balance above the insured amount? It’ll be interesting when they do open the banks what depositors with balances greater than 100,000 Euros will do. It is a side show now and we’ll draw great comic relief from it. Our two leading stock indexes continue to show weak relative strength to the general market. For the past two years both of these indexes have shown weak relative strength. The search for yield has not come from the growth side of the house, but the value side. Dividend paying stocks yielding higher than the 10 year treasury yield have been very popular. However, focusing in the top performing stocks like FLT and cutting laggards like AAPL will reap you great rewards. Tomorrow we’ll get a reading on durable goods orders. Alongside durable goods more Cyprus bailout talk will likely continue. Focus on price and ignore the opinions. We remain in an uptrend and there are stocks breaking out like AMBA, LL, V, and SPLK. Distribution count stands at 4 days on the NASDAQ and S&P 500. Any further distribution will likely tip the scales in favor of a correction. Time and price will tell. Cut those losses.

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