Thursday, March 07, 2013

Stocks continue to hit New Highs but Volume ends Mixed

Better than expected Jobless Claims figures helped start the market off in the green. Around the globe markets lifted on continued hope endless money printing will assist in ushering in economic growth. Volume ended mixed with NYSE volume expanding while the NASDAQ saw volume shrink. There isn’t anything from this market after this week to give us pause our market cannot go even higher. Things weren’t all great with the market moving lower in the early afternoon before buyers stepped back up. Closing near the highs of the session we get another bullish day in our uptrend. We have escaped a critical time frame in an uptrend with the first two days avoiding distribution. The likelihood of the market failing now drops considerably. A distribution day after a follow-through day is never a good sign as the failure rate above 90%. Another good sign for this uptrend is the lack of bullishness in the AAII survey showing Bulls only at 31%. I would expect after this most recent rally the number of bulls rise. However, the NAAIM Sentiment survey shows investment managers are 90% invested on the long side. This reading is quite high, but off the highs set in January. It is clear the Federal Reserve’s QErever has market participants feeling any selling will be brief. Tomorrow’s job report will be a big focus for Bloomberg TV and CNBC. Does Fox Business count? None of them count unless you need to see scrolling quotes. Given the Fed’s stance on unemployment we simply cannot see a scenario where the market will view the report as negative. Perhaps a big decline in unemployment would trigger the market participants to think the Fed will reduce QErever. A positive would be to see job growth outpace growth in food stamp participants. We still are seeing plenty of stocks to get long in this uptrend.

No comments: