Sunday, March 31, 2013
Stocks Close the Quarter Higher Despite Disappointing Economic Data
The market was hit with disappointing GDP and Jobless claims figures prior to the market open. Then again just after the open with a very disappointing reading from the Chicago PMI. Despite the disappointing economic reports the market as able to find enough buyers to keep stocks in green territory. Small caps lagged the broader market as the S&P 500 led the way. VIX slipped again as buyers continue to remain complacent as fears over a correction are simply non-existent. Our current uptrend remains intact and although we do have a bit of distribution we aren’t going to throw in the towel on this rally just yet. GDP growth was revised up from .1% to .4%, but still below the expectations of .5%. At this rate, .5% is not going to cut it for the US. Even 2% GDP growth will not improve our situation greatly. Perhaps the size of the US economy is a hindrance, but we need growth in order to pay for all the services we want the government to provide us. It is anyone’s best guess if this translates to higher or lower stock prices. If we were growing like Chile with 5% GDP growth we’d be creating jobs like gangbusters! The economic pie needs to grow and we need policies that aid the growth. Enough of the economic talk and get back to price action. Gold and silver continue to trade in downtrends while Oil has resumed an uptrend. One commodity in particular, Copper continues to trade in a downtrend. Copper is a decent indicator of economic growth and right now it is not singing the praises of the economy. JJC is an ETF to track Copper and it shows quite clear the commodity is in a downtrend. Natural gas continues to remain in an uptrend even with some high volume down days. It wouldn’t surprise us if the October high is breached. Outside of Crude Oil it doesn’t appear the freshly minted cash from the Federal Reserve is finding its way into commodities. Enjoy the long weekend. Next week we’ll get a bombardment of Economic data from across the world. It should be a fun time. Cut those losses.