Tuesday, July 16, 2013
Light Trading Volume persists; Stocks pull back notching a Day of Distribution
A better than expected Homebuilder sentiment reading failed to lift stocks and sent homebuilding stocks lower. Trading volume rose above Monday’s level, but again was below average. The major stock indexes did notch a day of distribution in technical terms. However, the damage was minor and we are considering this to be a light distribution day. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite ended its win streak at 8 straight days of gains. Traders now await Ben Bernanke’s testimony tomorrow. There were pockets of weakness, but until we see more of this action this uptrend still is in play. TSLA was the talk of the town after the stock fell more than 18 points. The stock has had an amazing run since its initial breakout in April. The stock has more than tripled from that point to now. It is not unlikely to see the stock break after hitting new highs. If you bought the recent low volume breakout you are likely underwater and highlight a point of being nimble when buying extended stocks. However, if you are in from April you have plenty of leeway. Just remember to take profits along the way. If you have a sound trading plan you aren’t panicking over the move. If you are, come join us. Yesterday we pointed out the homebuilding sector as being weak. After initially climbing after the sentiment release the entire sector sold off. Today’s action highlights what you think may not necessarily happen. The price action as of late has been bearish, not bullish. Could the sector turn around after tomorrow’s release of Housing Starts and Building permits? The answer is yes, but given the evidence we have now it doesn’t seem likely. Stick with price and ignore the noise. There were plenty other leading stocks like XONE and SSYS who were hit today. It is not unusual to see leaders get hit, but when they begin to get hit all at once over a period of time it usually spells trouble for the overall market. Today was one day and we remain in an uptrend. Until there is sufficient evidence given to us from price we are going to stick to the long side. Maybe the top callers will be right here…or they won’t. Enjoy watching the fireworks go off courteous of the Fed Chief.