Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Obama’s Economic Speech Fails to Inspire Buyers; AAPL Jumps

A big jump in New Home sales failed to get the market going as the homebuilders sold off hard on the news. The talk of the street was AAPL earnings and the stock’s big move on the day. Without AAPL the NASDAQ would have notched a day of distribution. The S&P 500 could not escape distribution settling down .4%. Even though the NASDAQ did not suffer the same fate as the S&P 500 it did give up almost all of the gains had at the open. Not typically something you want to see in an uptrend, but it isn’t a gigantic red flag. In after-hours trading we had quite a few earnings moves setting up nicely in the morning. We are still without enough distribution days and negative price action to call the end of this uptrend. While we may be long in the tooth we don’t have the proper signals telling us this is over. AAPL was an earnings winner as many were calling for an atrocious quarter from the technology giant. More earnings in the after-hours session will help set the tone tomorrow at the open. Earnings gaps have been a great way to play earnings season. Stocks must meet certain criteria before they can be considered, but they can be quite profitable. Homebuilders sold off in heavy volume and it comes to no surprise even with a big jump in new home sales. ITB and XHB are certainly struggling and while the housing data points to a positive outlook perhaps fundamentals truly are best at tops. In addition to ITB and XHB another key sector looks to be rolling back over and that is XLU. After rallying along with bonds (yields falling) yields raced higher today putting pressure on Utilities. Utilities are far from sexy, but along with Housing this sector is seeing quite a few headwinds. You’ll find plenty top callers in this market. It has proven to be a fool’s game trying to game a market top. Don’t call tops and ride your winners.

No comments: