Thursday, July 18, 2013

Stocks Gain, but Tech Disappoints in After-Hours

Better economic data hit the tape helping push the S&P 500 to new highs. The Philly Fed manufacturing index came in well above expectations. Jobless claims fell week over week. It was certainly good news from the economic front and the market pushed higher. Volume rose over Wednesday’s trade but just was about average. Summer time trade tends to be light and today’s volume is not surprising. We remain in an uptrend, but given the after-hours reaction to earnings tomorrow will certainly be a fun day. We only have one day of distribution and see no reason to call a top. INTC and EBAY struggled after earnings putting pressure on the NASDAQ today. Tomorrow the NASDAQ will have even more pressure delivered by GOOG and MSFT. Both stocks missed earnings in a big way and both were getting hit hard in the after-hours session. GOOG and MSFT had been stars of this most recent rally from December. The NASDAQ can thank these two stocks for its rise in 2013. Sentiment check: we saw the AAII Bulls drop slightly to 47%. Bears did get back above 20% to 21%! NAAIM sentiment climbed over 60%, but overly bullish bets weren’t being placed. Sentiment still isn’t at an extreme point, but it is high. Combine sentiment readings with the percentage of stocks over their respective moving averages is a possible sign we could see at least some consolidation over the next few trading sessions. It is best to stick with the program and know anything can happen. GOOG and MSFT will at least make tomorrow somewhat interesting. Combine the crazy earnings action with options expiry should excite those who watch the market tick by tick. Have a great weekend.

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