Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Markets in confirmed rally for the short-term and sub-intermediate time frame.

Intermediate still remains down but who cares!!!! The market's primary trend since the October 2002 bottom has been sideways. THIS IS A GOOD THING! It is called base building. I am starting to see a lot more cry-babies and whiners in the chat rooms that I monitor. That tells me, along with the more recent bearish newsletter writers, that this turn could have some good legs to go with it. Sentiment is so poor and the bears are so confident that prices are going to fall that I think further upside is almost a certain to happen. But it doesn't matter what I think.

Stocks advanced across the board, volume grew, and more breakouts appeared with good fundamentals. Not good for the perma-bears who think the market is going to fall apart and go to hell. Are they crazy? No. Just newbies or lazy people who refuse to look to the past for answers and want their prediction to come true. Too bad it almost never does work out that way.

Also don't forget: I hear a lot of people saying "but rates are rising, rates are rising." Once again, If you look at history, the market proves conventional wisdom wrong again. Going back to 1997, you can clearly see that when rates are rising the market goes higher. When the Fed is cutting rates the market follows the rates. Don't believe me. Go look for yourself.

Fed begins rasing rates to the end of its raising cycle: stocks move up.
Fed begins lowering rates to the bottom of its lowering cycle: stocks move down.

Don't fret the Fed.

I have covered ALL oil shorts and have less than 3% of my account short. That tells me this is a strong market, with medicals leading the way.

ALOHA.

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