Thursday, September 22, 2005

Biding Time Till Rita Hits TX/LA

The stock market indexes rose today, reversing an early selloff and closing near the HOD's (high of day). However volume was lower across the board so there really wasnt conviction by buyers that they are ready to support this market.

The market may stay dead on Friday. Hurricane Rita is just too much a factor right now to figure out what the market might want to do with it. Until this hurricane passes, the market is going to be held hostage by it. And if you think you know what the market is going to do, you are lying to yourself. This market has no clue what it wants to do.

One of the more odd things I saw today was the ratio of bullish/bearish newsletter writers. The number of bulls went up this week!! With all the stocks breaking down, rolling over, and starting obvious downtrends, newsletter writers turned more bullish. This is not what makes a bottom. Bottoms are created when there are more bears than bulls or the number of bulls/bears is even. Since this downtrend is under way and is now obvious to the investment community the writers should be getting more bearish. If the writers continue to stay bullish as we move lower (if we move lower) this downtrend could last a while. If they were already turning bearish with all the media negativity I would think it might not last as long. But with them still being bullish after all the media BS, ugly individual charts, and knowing the obvious negative economic impacts of natural disasters I have a feeling this could last a while. I hope I am wrong.

New Swing Longs: ELK GFIG OMNI

Longs Outperforming Market: ENY DBLE CNR FUEL WSSI BNN

New Swing Shorts: TWGP CPTV SEAB WMS GOL OPEN AGE

Shorts Outperforming Market: RUTX ALLI EMAG IPCR TNH WMAR FDO ETR

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