The market indexes started the day higher, but after Alan Greenspan hiked rates for the 11th time in a row, the indexes reversed on heavier volume and closed near the days lows. They were down anywhere from .5 to 1.1%.
Volume was higher on all indexes. That gives the indexes their second or third distribution day since the 9/6 follow-through. Along with the higher volume came poor breadth, confirming the weakness today.
Retail and Homebuilders got smacked again. I normally am not a fan of being a bear, but seeing Homebuilders fall hard makes me happy.
I can not stand excess speculation and that is all the real estate market seemed to be the past two years. Living on Maui, I heard enough real estate stories to make me want to move. This reminded me of New York City back in 1999-2000 during the stock market bubble. Though during that time, I moved in June 2000 out to Maui because I knew it was over.
Oil is obviously having an impact on peoples pocket books by looking at Retail and Homebuilder stocks. That along with the next big hurricane--Rita--is creating a lot of pessimism out there. It seems as if everything is really aweful. I guess that in itself is the only good news out there, since everyone is negative we should go up, right? Unless those people havent sold yet. I have a feeling they are just now selling. You can not have a bottom this early in a downtrend. This thing is just starting and the pessimism is going to grow and grow. Then we will have a "REAL" bottom to rally from. And just like in April/May (read my old entries) when everyone is still bearish, I will have cash ready to buy the best of the best. I look forward to a nice big down move, to be honest.
Bottom Line: Technical picture is getting worse and worse. The downside momentum is picking up, shorts are everywhere, and October is right around the corner. All sub-intermediate and short-term trends are now down for all indexes.
I wonder if the market is going to crash in October? I wonder if history will repeat itself? Let's see!
New Swing Longs: HDB ESV PORK ZIGO NSC RITA FIX
Longs Outperforming Market: SYNC ARD ECTX NRPH DEX ECLG CNQR AMAC
New Swing Shorts: JWN UACL APD HNZ PPG FORM CTX CAKE HOT FDO MVC HDI HET LIZ AVP ALB ACAT LZB ETH PGL NAV
Shorts Outperforming Market: TXRH LEN SPH TOL ANF HOV SHW MNI IPCR
2 comments:
New swing long: RITA (I'll say)
LOL
;>)
I know.
I wasnt sure if I meant the stock or the storm. This one is HUGE!!!--The storm.
The stock? Whatever. It is just a trade. 3.90 and 3.70 cut loss points, if it doesnt work.
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