Monday, September 19, 2005

One Index Follows-Through To The Downside

The major market indexes all fell today, closing down about 1% across the board. The NASDAQ and Dow closed below their 50 day moving averages. With that the NASDAQ has traded below the 50 dma, rallied to the line, failed, and has now followed-through to the downside. This brings the short-term trend and intermediate trends down in the NASDAQ. The other indexes are stronger than the NASDAQ but they are showing many signs of weakness.

Breadth was 2 to 1 negative, continuing a recent theme. Oil/Gas stocks led the way with the top 10 performers having nine from the Oil group.

The markets are very schizo recently. Stocks have gone up and down and back up in a very volatile matter. It seems more volatile than the 12 reading the VIX is giving us. Longs remain difficult to buy and hold, shorts blow past cut loss points or gap too far to be shorted, and the indexes are going sideways but it feels like it has been crashing.

I take it all the negative news "all day all the time" on TV has something to do with it. That is not my opinion, it is truth.

Whatever happens to Rita, remember to be ready for an upside breakout or a downside breakout on the indexes. The way things are shaping up currently, the downside looks like the path of least resistance. I say this, however, with most trends long, mid, and short moving sideways to up. I am either seeing the action in my individual charts and coming to this conclusion, or I have been brainwashed by the NY Times, CNN, FoxNews, and all the major news networks to believe this next hurricane could be the second sign of Armageddon.

New Swing Longs: BDE PAY BDCO FUEL ALY

Longs Outperforming Market: ENER ESLR ABP ARD SFCC DEX PANC TVIA TERN AAPL

New Swing Shorts: CTRN LVS MNI WBS FO ALL SHW DTG KPA WNC INPC

Shorts Outperforming Market: TOL PTC TNH BBY HOV SPH LEN IPG

Stocks On Radar Screen: MSL MXM REF FLT

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