New Swing Longs: AATI TSCO BGC STXN HAIN GSL
Longs Outperforming Market: BOOM-243% ASF-160% CERS-94% RTSX-92% RES-72% ANAD-66% ACR-65% SYKE-61% CCI-54% THOR-52% SILCF-50% CVO-48% HHGP-47% CPTS-35% CRDN-33% RADN-28% HITK-28% FWLT BBBB VIGN MSCC MDCC LCAV NNDS LOGI CKFR RVSN GOL JDSU EFII TNOX GGR ZEUS MECA SBAC COHU MRGE CLZR KPA DEPO SSY ORA MCX
New Swing Shorts: AYE K FADV
Shorts Outperforming Market: SYMC
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Market Pulls Back And Help Work-Off Overbought Conditions
The markets were a mixed bag of trading today, with the Nasdaq closing down while the SP600, 500, and 400 finished higher. Big tech stocks like GOOG helped weigh on the overall action of the market today. Volume did pick up across the board, giving the averages their second distribution day in as many days. However, if you look at volume during the advance from October, you will see that the volume on the upside was much heavier than the volume the past two days on the downside. Another positive is the fact that breadth on the Nasdaq and NYSE was positive by 3 to 2 and most stocks acted quite calm on their pullbacks. So overall not that bad of a day.
Today's trading had a fair amount of uncertainty to the action and appeared to be simple profit taking. I know that the past week I took some profits in a some big winners on either climax runs or new highs on low volume. And the stocks I am partialing out of will allow me to have more cash on hand for the new batch of breakouts that will come from the next rally to new highs.
We are still very overbought short term but long term the indexes look great (look at daily/weekly chart going back to 2002)! This uptrend looks fine and as you can see in the daily charts going back to 2002 in the indexes all trends are up in all time frames except the very short term. For the very short term the trend is down. But since 2002, the big bad old primary trend is up to sideways. Slow and steady wins the race.
New Swing Longs: ZEUS RDCM DEPO
Longs Outperforming Market: CNVR-48% CVO-43% CRDN-32% RADN GOL RVSN CMTL MRGE CTLM NNDS SKIL FDRY KPA CLZR ICTG
New Swing Shorts: KERX
Shorts Outperforming Market: APPX ARM POSS
Stocks On Radar Screen: CPL
Today's trading had a fair amount of uncertainty to the action and appeared to be simple profit taking. I know that the past week I took some profits in a some big winners on either climax runs or new highs on low volume. And the stocks I am partialing out of will allow me to have more cash on hand for the new batch of breakouts that will come from the next rally to new highs.
We are still very overbought short term but long term the indexes look great (look at daily/weekly chart going back to 2002)! This uptrend looks fine and as you can see in the daily charts going back to 2002 in the indexes all trends are up in all time frames except the very short term. For the very short term the trend is down. But since 2002, the big bad old primary trend is up to sideways. Slow and steady wins the race.
New Swing Longs: ZEUS RDCM DEPO
Longs Outperforming Market: CNVR-48% CVO-43% CRDN-32% RADN GOL RVSN CMTL MRGE CTLM NNDS SKIL FDRY KPA CLZR ICTG
New Swing Shorts: KERX
Shorts Outperforming Market: APPX ARM POSS
Stocks On Radar Screen: CPL
Monday, November 28, 2005
Finally, The Pullback Has Started; Volume Came In Lower Than 50 Day Volume Average
There will be no market commentary tonight. The surf was big and fun on our North Shores today (almost double overhead). I surfed a good amount today and don't feel like writing tonight. If the waves are cranking tomorrow, I probably will not be writing commentary tomorrow night. I will be way too tired, like I am tonight.
New Swing Longs: MLR SKIL
Longs Outperforming Market: CERS-92% RBAK-89% RTSX-85% AAPL-46% SILCF-45% BNT-44% OXPS-42% NWRE-41% LMIA-41% GES-40% CPTS-32% VGZ-31% IIJI-25% TIII ISO HEII CAMP LOGI TWGP CNXT PAAS RVSN MEL PEIX
New Swing Shorts: APPX
Shorts Outperforming Market: WEBX SNS ARM POSS COG
Stocks On Radar Screen: APAC SIL NEM
New Swing Longs: MLR SKIL
Longs Outperforming Market: CERS-92% RBAK-89% RTSX-85% AAPL-46% SILCF-45% BNT-44% OXPS-42% NWRE-41% LMIA-41% GES-40% CPTS-32% VGZ-31% IIJI-25% TIII ISO HEII CAMP LOGI TWGP CNXT PAAS RVSN MEL PEIX
New Swing Shorts: APPX
Shorts Outperforming Market: WEBX SNS ARM POSS COG
Stocks On Radar Screen: APAC SIL NEM
Saturday, November 26, 2005
Position Management
This subject is so...subjective that it sometimes is hard to fit all styles into one kind of methodology. So, since I am not a buy and hold guy or a daytrader, I will elaborate on how I hold my stocks. This is in know way the way you should trade. I recommend on holding more than a couple of stocks but to go the extent that I go in "bull" markets should not be done unless you really know what YOU are doing.
The best method I know for holding the right amount of stocks for your personal cash criteria can be found in "How To Make Money in Stocks" by William J. O Neil. You can also find many money management articles in the Investors Business Daily Learning Center found at investors.com.
For my personal style I dont like to hold any stock that makes up more than 5% of my account. That doesnt mean that it cant grow to more than 5% but no matter what I never buy more than that. The reason being is that I have found that whenever I think I have found a big winner, in the past, and have loaded up on them it has never done what I thought it would do. This is just bad luck on my part. I dont seem to be able to outperform the markets by hitting the right MSFT DELL EBAY CSCO BOOM FORD TASR TZOO for a short time frame huge return. So after a lot of trial and error, I have found by buying all the great stocks that breakout from great bases I am able to outperform as long as I have great sell rules to limit damages. Along with that, knowing how to average out of buys can keep me in some big winners like NDAQ BMD ASF this year alone. By averaging out of my winners and cutting my losses quickly it allows me to always have some cash on hand ready to buy the next potential big winner breaking out of a base.
The great thing about this method is how well it can alert you to swings in the market. When the market is in an uptrend and all the sudden I start getting a lot of different sell signals in the longs I have, I know the tides are changing. On the other hand, when we have been in a bear market and I have a lot of cash on hand and all of a sudden stocks start breaking out of great bases on high volume while the market gets choppy trying to find a bottom, I know that a bull market is starting.
The more stocks you hold the more money you need to have. You dont want to own 50 stocks and have only $5,000 in your account. You need $25k at least to hold 50 stocks. That would give you $500 in each stock. That may not sound like a lot but if you trade on a per share basis it is as cheap as can be.
Now, the next thing we need to bring up is those 50 stocks you hold. If you are buying at the wrong time all the time, this method will ruin you fast. But if you have a track record of hitting at least .333 in the stock market, this method will work if your winners are larger by your losers at a 3 to 1 ratio. That is why IBD always says (and newbies YOU ALWAYS SHOULD) cut your losses at 7%. I cant stress that enough. Why? Because normally when I get a stock right a 20% is average. I can get 3 wrong to every 1 right and come out on top. Just like baseball hitters. The good thing about the method and stocks I select has become the fact that I now swing over .600 in bull markets and over .400 in any other kind of market. This ratio, over time, allows me to well outperform any mutual fund over a 3, 5, and 10 year period.
To learn how I find stocks to then employ this kind of management, please read the post called "How I Scan For My Stocks."
There is much more than this that goes into the overall money/position management game. I just thought this would be a great overall place to start. I will reread what I have posted and in the future will add suplements to this post when I feel neccessary.
All questions and comments are welcome. Don't be shy!
The best method I know for holding the right amount of stocks for your personal cash criteria can be found in "How To Make Money in Stocks" by William J. O Neil. You can also find many money management articles in the Investors Business Daily Learning Center found at investors.com.
For my personal style I dont like to hold any stock that makes up more than 5% of my account. That doesnt mean that it cant grow to more than 5% but no matter what I never buy more than that. The reason being is that I have found that whenever I think I have found a big winner, in the past, and have loaded up on them it has never done what I thought it would do. This is just bad luck on my part. I dont seem to be able to outperform the markets by hitting the right MSFT DELL EBAY CSCO BOOM FORD TASR TZOO for a short time frame huge return. So after a lot of trial and error, I have found by buying all the great stocks that breakout from great bases I am able to outperform as long as I have great sell rules to limit damages. Along with that, knowing how to average out of buys can keep me in some big winners like NDAQ BMD ASF this year alone. By averaging out of my winners and cutting my losses quickly it allows me to always have some cash on hand ready to buy the next potential big winner breaking out of a base.
The great thing about this method is how well it can alert you to swings in the market. When the market is in an uptrend and all the sudden I start getting a lot of different sell signals in the longs I have, I know the tides are changing. On the other hand, when we have been in a bear market and I have a lot of cash on hand and all of a sudden stocks start breaking out of great bases on high volume while the market gets choppy trying to find a bottom, I know that a bull market is starting.
The more stocks you hold the more money you need to have. You dont want to own 50 stocks and have only $5,000 in your account. You need $25k at least to hold 50 stocks. That would give you $500 in each stock. That may not sound like a lot but if you trade on a per share basis it is as cheap as can be.
Now, the next thing we need to bring up is those 50 stocks you hold. If you are buying at the wrong time all the time, this method will ruin you fast. But if you have a track record of hitting at least .333 in the stock market, this method will work if your winners are larger by your losers at a 3 to 1 ratio. That is why IBD always says (and newbies YOU ALWAYS SHOULD) cut your losses at 7%. I cant stress that enough. Why? Because normally when I get a stock right a 20% is average. I can get 3 wrong to every 1 right and come out on top. Just like baseball hitters. The good thing about the method and stocks I select has become the fact that I now swing over .600 in bull markets and over .400 in any other kind of market. This ratio, over time, allows me to well outperform any mutual fund over a 3, 5, and 10 year period.
To learn how I find stocks to then employ this kind of management, please read the post called "How I Scan For My Stocks."
There is much more than this that goes into the overall money/position management game. I just thought this would be a great overall place to start. I will reread what I have posted and in the future will add suplements to this post when I feel neccessary.
All questions and comments are welcome. Don't be shy!
Friday, November 25, 2005
Post-Holiday Trading Non-Existant
It is a waste of time trying to analyze a holiday market. Enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend, eat well, and stay safe.
I have written an article on how I scan stocks for purchase, below. There will be others this weekend about money management and selling.
New Swing Longs: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-320% BBD-87% ANAD-69% AAPL-49% RY-40% AKAM-28% CWTR DEZ NXG PTC GG HEII TESOF CHE LOGI
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: STAA CAU AERTA RITA COBR
I have written an article on how I scan stocks for purchase, below. There will be others this weekend about money management and selling.
New Swing Longs: NONE
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-320% BBD-87% ANAD-69% AAPL-49% RY-40% AKAM-28% CWTR DEZ NXG PTC GG HEII TESOF CHE LOGI
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: STAA CAU AERTA RITA COBR
How I Scan For My Stocks
When I am searching for stocks there are two primary scans I use, after hours. One is a list I have in my TCNet program called "IBD List Combined" and the other one is "Price/Volume."
The IBD List Combined is simply all the stocks the past week from "Your Weekly Review," "Where The Big Money Is Flowing-Daily/Weekly," "IBD 100," "Top Buys Of Mutual Funds Past Month," and "IBD Compostie Top 200." These stocks are all put on one list and scanned for new breakouts after the bell. These stocks are the best of the best and normally when they breakout if you follow the IBD sell rules work quite well. What this list also helps me to do is find potential breakouts that I then place on watchlist on my TWS in IB. These watchlist have alerts set .10 cents above the pivot point of the most recent base and when the stock price crosses that pivot point an alert goes off. That alert will then allow me to pullup current chart of the stock and see if this breaout is on heavy volume. If it does, then I buy intraday, if I am around.
The next scan called "Price/Volume" is a scan I created using criteria from the best stocks with big price runs that I have seen in my life.
The best way to describe this process is by reprinting my submission to TCNEt's Worden Brothers. The orignial can be found on TCNet. I recommend EVERYONE subscribe to this chart package. Just do some research on it and you will see why it is the best.
The Worden Report (Friday, June 3, 2005)
We Dub Thee Sir Aloha
Sir Aloha is another one of those who put their own marks on every concept that they find attractvie, which they then modify to fit their own objectives. This is a characteristic of ALL knights. Sir Aloha's approach is one that will help many develop approaches of their own. We welcome Sir Aloha to the "Roundtable of Knights Who Think for Themselves." The celecbratory bottle of Veuve Clicuot Ponsardin is being prepared for travel. - DW (Don Worden)
Dear Mr. Worden
As a user of TC2005 for at least six years I can honestly say that without your software my success today might not be what it has been. I would like to offer a submission on how to select stocks for purchase during bull markets or, if the investor is experienced, purchase of good stocks in strong sectors in bear markets.
Being an avid fan of historical charts and an avid chart reader, I have noticed the same patterns in charts over and over and over. Being that I have been investing/trading stocks for ten years now I have also seen my fair share of great stocks and their chart patterns. I scan/search around 500 stocks everyday that come up on my PCF (personal criteria formula) easy scans and find that they have a fantastic track record when coming out of a basing pattern.
I look for stocks that have simple characteristics using volume and moving averages. I find technical indicators are just clutter and can give too many false signals that could prevent a trader from earning full potential profits. Below I will list the criteria and the PCFs that I use to put into an easyscan to give the best stocks with the best chart patterns.
First, I want the stock to be up for the day (Price Percent Change today, 0.01 to Max), the stock to be trading above the 50 dma (C > AVGC50), the 50 dma to be above the 200 dma (AVGC50 > AVGC200).
Second, I want the volume to be at least 1.5x the 50 day volume average (V > 1.5 * AVGV50). On one scan I have stocks that have to avg. 100k shares a day for the past 50 days (AVG50 >= 1000). On a seperate one I have one that trades avg. 20k to 100k (more speculative, wider spreads) (AVGV50 >= 200 AND AVGV50 <= 1000).
Now that you have created the scans of the charts you want to look at we need to now look at how to setup your screen.
In the top window I have candlestick price on a log chart, 50 dma, 200 dma.
Second Window: Volume bars and a 50 day volume avg. line.
Bottom Window: BOP and Moneystream.
I love how on small cap stocks that come up on the scan that have proper accumulation/distribution characteristics BOP can be a strong green throughout the base in an uptrending market. ------- I think I should have re-written that to say: I love how green BOP in the base followed by green BOP after the breakout can lead to great price gains in small cap stocks. OH WELL.
The most important part is then knowing your chart patterns. Cup with handlses, saucers, W-bottoms, ascending bases, 50 day moving average bounces, and other historical patterns that the best stocks create.
When combining all these you can find great stocks that will give you better returns than most other stocks in the market. History shows strong stocks get stronger and weak stocks get weaker. Not all the time, but you get my point. -------- That should have said: Strong stocks get stronger in bull markets, weak stocks get weaker in bear markets.
Easy and not too complicated! I have been using this setup for over five years. This is an excellent scan in bull markets to find the best stocks, the leaders in the current or any uptrend environment.
Aloha from Maui,
Joshua
There you go. If you have any questions feel free to post in the comments below.
Next Up: My personal postition management style. This is NOT the best style for almost any trader. It is for experienced traders that know how to handle a lot of positions if he has to. I normally dont hold as many different stocks as I do now. But that is what the market is offering so I do it. I dont deviate from my discipline. Once you do that, you are only going to hurt yourself. Stick to a routine and do it all the time.
The IBD List Combined is simply all the stocks the past week from "Your Weekly Review," "Where The Big Money Is Flowing-Daily/Weekly," "IBD 100," "Top Buys Of Mutual Funds Past Month," and "IBD Compostie Top 200." These stocks are all put on one list and scanned for new breakouts after the bell. These stocks are the best of the best and normally when they breakout if you follow the IBD sell rules work quite well. What this list also helps me to do is find potential breakouts that I then place on watchlist on my TWS in IB. These watchlist have alerts set .10 cents above the pivot point of the most recent base and when the stock price crosses that pivot point an alert goes off. That alert will then allow me to pullup current chart of the stock and see if this breaout is on heavy volume. If it does, then I buy intraday, if I am around.
The next scan called "Price/Volume" is a scan I created using criteria from the best stocks with big price runs that I have seen in my life.
The best way to describe this process is by reprinting my submission to TCNEt's Worden Brothers. The orignial can be found on TCNet. I recommend EVERYONE subscribe to this chart package. Just do some research on it and you will see why it is the best.
The Worden Report (Friday, June 3, 2005)
We Dub Thee Sir Aloha
Sir Aloha is another one of those who put their own marks on every concept that they find attractvie, which they then modify to fit their own objectives. This is a characteristic of ALL knights. Sir Aloha's approach is one that will help many develop approaches of their own. We welcome Sir Aloha to the "Roundtable of Knights Who Think for Themselves." The celecbratory bottle of Veuve Clicuot Ponsardin is being prepared for travel. - DW (Don Worden)
Dear Mr. Worden
As a user of TC2005 for at least six years I can honestly say that without your software my success today might not be what it has been. I would like to offer a submission on how to select stocks for purchase during bull markets or, if the investor is experienced, purchase of good stocks in strong sectors in bear markets.
Being an avid fan of historical charts and an avid chart reader, I have noticed the same patterns in charts over and over and over. Being that I have been investing/trading stocks for ten years now I have also seen my fair share of great stocks and their chart patterns. I scan/search around 500 stocks everyday that come up on my PCF (personal criteria formula) easy scans and find that they have a fantastic track record when coming out of a basing pattern.
I look for stocks that have simple characteristics using volume and moving averages. I find technical indicators are just clutter and can give too many false signals that could prevent a trader from earning full potential profits. Below I will list the criteria and the PCFs that I use to put into an easyscan to give the best stocks with the best chart patterns.
First, I want the stock to be up for the day (Price Percent Change today, 0.01 to Max), the stock to be trading above the 50 dma (C > AVGC50), the 50 dma to be above the 200 dma (AVGC50 > AVGC200).
Second, I want the volume to be at least 1.5x the 50 day volume average (V > 1.5 * AVGV50). On one scan I have stocks that have to avg. 100k shares a day for the past 50 days (AVG50 >= 1000). On a seperate one I have one that trades avg. 20k to 100k (more speculative, wider spreads) (AVGV50 >= 200 AND AVGV50 <= 1000).
Now that you have created the scans of the charts you want to look at we need to now look at how to setup your screen.
In the top window I have candlestick price on a log chart, 50 dma, 200 dma.
Second Window: Volume bars and a 50 day volume avg. line.
Bottom Window: BOP and Moneystream.
I love how on small cap stocks that come up on the scan that have proper accumulation/distribution characteristics BOP can be a strong green throughout the base in an uptrending market. ------- I think I should have re-written that to say: I love how green BOP in the base followed by green BOP after the breakout can lead to great price gains in small cap stocks. OH WELL.
The most important part is then knowing your chart patterns. Cup with handlses, saucers, W-bottoms, ascending bases, 50 day moving average bounces, and other historical patterns that the best stocks create.
When combining all these you can find great stocks that will give you better returns than most other stocks in the market. History shows strong stocks get stronger and weak stocks get weaker. Not all the time, but you get my point. -------- That should have said: Strong stocks get stronger in bull markets, weak stocks get weaker in bear markets.
Easy and not too complicated! I have been using this setup for over five years. This is an excellent scan in bull markets to find the best stocks, the leaders in the current or any uptrend environment.
Aloha from Maui,
Joshua
There you go. If you have any questions feel free to post in the comments below.
Next Up: My personal postition management style. This is NOT the best style for almost any trader. It is for experienced traders that know how to handle a lot of positions if he has to. I normally dont hold as many different stocks as I do now. But that is what the market is offering so I do it. I dont deviate from my discipline. Once you do that, you are only going to hurt yourself. Stick to a routine and do it all the time.
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
Happy Thanksgiving Day Everyone!
There is no commentary tonight as it is unnecessary to comment on pre-holiday trading. I will also not be posting market commentary after Friday's close, for the same reason.
Instead I plan on writing a series of columns this weekend relating to:
My trading: How I scan, setup, etc...
How I got involved in trading: What I am thankful for
Position Management, etc...
New Swing Longs: JBL ISO QSFT ECIL GHM HEII AMS
Longs Outperforming Market: RATE-90% BBD-84% ANAD-64% SPNC-66% RY-36% CWTR CTHR AKAM CHE PTC OXM NXG BBBB RNOW DEZ KPA JDSU ICTG UIC
New Swing Shorts: WEBX POSS
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: WZEN ISE MSSR MCBI ARCAF ALNY COBR VLG OSUR
Disaster Of The Day: ALXN. Ouch!!!
Instead I plan on writing a series of columns this weekend relating to:
My trading: How I scan, setup, etc...
How I got involved in trading: What I am thankful for
Position Management, etc...
New Swing Longs: JBL ISO QSFT ECIL GHM HEII AMS
Longs Outperforming Market: RATE-90% BBD-84% ANAD-64% SPNC-66% RY-36% CWTR CTHR AKAM CHE PTC OXM NXG BBBB RNOW DEZ KPA JDSU ICTG UIC
New Swing Shorts: WEBX POSS
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: WZEN ISE MSSR MCBI ARCAF ALNY COBR VLG OSUR
Disaster Of The Day: ALXN. Ouch!!!
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Another Late Day Rally, On Heavier Volume, Gives Stocks A Green Close.
THANK YOU EVERYONE FOR YOUR GREAT COMMENTS ON THE PREVIOUS POST. FEEL FREE TO READ MY REPLIES.
The stock market indexes all rose today-SP400/600 up .6% and NYSE/DOW/Nasdaq up .5%- as volume increased to give the markets another minor accumulation day. At first, the indexes didn't really do anything today and it felt like normal pre-Thanksgiving holiday trading until the FOMC minutes came out. After the minutes were released, volume picked up and the markets rallied closing higher on higher volume. Advances on the NYSE was 3 to 2 and on the Nasdaq it was 6 to 5 positive. The usual stocks that are leading this rally helped mark gains again today. Medical, Technology, Finance, Retail, Machinery, and EVEN Housing all rose today, showing where the leadership is. However, the Homebuilders are in late stage bases and besides BZH and MLP I do not like any of them.
The good news today to market participants was the FOMC hinting at an end to rate hikes. Well, goodness, I didn't see that coming. Joking! The market has been hinting at this since October. So this news maybe the news that helps rest this market a bit, since people are excited now that rate hikes are almost over.
Everyone has been expecting a Thanksgiving rally so this news may start a pullback that would help bring in some more bears. Still, it is hard to stop momentum, once it starts. I know I keep saying this but it is very important to look at markets like 94-95, 99, and 03 to see how bull markets act. They don't stop and rest for very long periods of time. I mean, come on, how long have they been saying this current rally is overbought/extended?
Still I did do some selling on some big winners today. For instance, I sold another 1/4 of NDAQ. Why did I sell today? If you look at an arithmetic daily chart for the year, you can see that it is making a parabolic well above its most recent base and it is breaking an uptrend line drawn across the top of the highs going back to February. These are signs to look for, for stocks showing climax tops. This cash on hand now allows me to buy the next NEW breakout.
Tomorrow is for sure to have lower volume. I was wrong yesterday; can I be wrong again? Does it matter? Heck no. Who cares. Thanksgiving is right around the corner. :)
New Swing Longs: FFFL CHE SNTO ZL LCRD
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-305% RATE-88% ASGN-71% RES-69% ACR-65% CBG-48% CNVR-46% AAPL-44% BNT-41% GES-37% RY-36% EAGL-34% IRIS-33% CRDN-31% CPTS-30% NVDA-26% FAST-25% AKAM CHINA SILCF ITRI RVSN ASPM CTHR CWTR TWGP TEVA SMSC ARS KEYS SCUR GG PTC CRED TIII KEX ASVI RADN LOGI ASEI FWLT MGN COHU CTLM CRXL DEZ MU Q SBAC VGZ MRB KPA CALP BWNG ACTG KGC ING NXTP
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: SYMC
Stocks On Radar Screen: ATEA SVR GAP CACH GFI
The stock market indexes all rose today-SP400/600 up .6% and NYSE/DOW/Nasdaq up .5%- as volume increased to give the markets another minor accumulation day. At first, the indexes didn't really do anything today and it felt like normal pre-Thanksgiving holiday trading until the FOMC minutes came out. After the minutes were released, volume picked up and the markets rallied closing higher on higher volume. Advances on the NYSE was 3 to 2 and on the Nasdaq it was 6 to 5 positive. The usual stocks that are leading this rally helped mark gains again today. Medical, Technology, Finance, Retail, Machinery, and EVEN Housing all rose today, showing where the leadership is. However, the Homebuilders are in late stage bases and besides BZH and MLP I do not like any of them.
The good news today to market participants was the FOMC hinting at an end to rate hikes. Well, goodness, I didn't see that coming. Joking! The market has been hinting at this since October. So this news maybe the news that helps rest this market a bit, since people are excited now that rate hikes are almost over.
Everyone has been expecting a Thanksgiving rally so this news may start a pullback that would help bring in some more bears. Still, it is hard to stop momentum, once it starts. I know I keep saying this but it is very important to look at markets like 94-95, 99, and 03 to see how bull markets act. They don't stop and rest for very long periods of time. I mean, come on, how long have they been saying this current rally is overbought/extended?
Still I did do some selling on some big winners today. For instance, I sold another 1/4 of NDAQ. Why did I sell today? If you look at an arithmetic daily chart for the year, you can see that it is making a parabolic well above its most recent base and it is breaking an uptrend line drawn across the top of the highs going back to February. These are signs to look for, for stocks showing climax tops. This cash on hand now allows me to buy the next NEW breakout.
Tomorrow is for sure to have lower volume. I was wrong yesterday; can I be wrong again? Does it matter? Heck no. Who cares. Thanksgiving is right around the corner. :)
New Swing Longs: FFFL CHE SNTO ZL LCRD
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-305% RATE-88% ASGN-71% RES-69% ACR-65% CBG-48% CNVR-46% AAPL-44% BNT-41% GES-37% RY-36% EAGL-34% IRIS-33% CRDN-31% CPTS-30% NVDA-26% FAST-25% AKAM CHINA SILCF ITRI RVSN ASPM CTHR CWTR TWGP TEVA SMSC ARS KEYS SCUR GG PTC CRED TIII KEX ASVI RADN LOGI ASEI FWLT MGN COHU CTLM CRXL DEZ MU Q SBAC VGZ MRB KPA CALP BWNG ACTG KGC ING NXTP
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: SYMC
Stocks On Radar Screen: ATEA SVR GAP CACH GFI
Monday, November 21, 2005
Market Commentary Later--Maybe, If I want to. I can't tell if people are reading this or not.
Not sure why I should even post. I figured after all that writing Friday, I would have gotten at least one comment. You would think my track record and loud mouth would have gotten some attention by now. Oh well. I guess one day someone will wake up and take notice. Until then I will keep writing. But if people don't start offering comments I am going to just post my longs and shorts and how they perform. This makes a good online diary but I already was making one at home for the past 3 years.
If you guys know anyone who outperforms me, let me know. Maybe I am not doing a good enough job. Or if you have suggestions as to how I can possibly get more eyes on my blog, let me know.
Thank You Very Much.
The stock market keeps on moving higher without stopping to take a rest. All indexes rose across the board, though it did come on lower volume - IBD100 1.6% SP600 1% SP400 .9% Nasdaq .7% and NYSE .5% which also made All-time highs. The late move in the final hours of trading today did have volume expanding as it moved higher which gives consolation to the fact that volume was lower than Friday. Friday was also an expiration day that normally always follows with a lower volume Monday. No matter if we go up or down. The fact that volume expanded on the upside as we rallied intraday, along with the ABUNDANCE of charts making strong moves today in my portfolio, shows how strong this market is right now.
The next couple of days is going to get quite boring. I doubt there will be much price movement in the indexes and with the lack of volume there probably will not be a lot of action in a lot of stocks. However, I am sure some fund favorites will get a nice markup in this low volume environment. This is the time of year when people get that "happy" feeling.
One day this market will stop going up and we will have to sell en mass, instead of taking profits on the way up. Until then the Christmas/Hanukkah party has started early and so far this party is rocking!
Interesting Fact of Night: SP600 is up 61% since the March 2000 top!!! As Gary B. Smith said, when referring to the Russell 2000 all-time highs, "what bear market?"
New Swing Longs: TIII STMP PTC ASVI GME.B ALY MMUS SCHN PAAS ALXN GG KGC NXTP ORA
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-285% BMD-265% DESC-178% GMXR-105% WIRE-68% SPNC-63% ACR-61% CMTL-57% ANAD-56% CBG-48% SMTS-43% MNG-42% HITK-41% BNT-40% CNVR-40% UHAL-40% CMED-38% OXPS-36% GES-34% NWRE-34% LMIA-32% EAGL-31% CRDN-29% TRAD-27% CNET-25% PEIX RADS CKCM CWTR RWC SXC WOOF TESOF MRGE HOM MRB AUY SVA TOMO IT CLZR SBAC CDE TFSM NXG GRS TNOX CHRD Q DEZ MU SILCF ICTG CALP
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: ARM SYMC
Stocks On Radar Screen: GROW JMBI ARBA EMBT VISG SIFY FUR OCPI
If you guys know anyone who outperforms me, let me know. Maybe I am not doing a good enough job. Or if you have suggestions as to how I can possibly get more eyes on my blog, let me know.
Thank You Very Much.
The stock market keeps on moving higher without stopping to take a rest. All indexes rose across the board, though it did come on lower volume - IBD100 1.6% SP600 1% SP400 .9% Nasdaq .7% and NYSE .5% which also made All-time highs. The late move in the final hours of trading today did have volume expanding as it moved higher which gives consolation to the fact that volume was lower than Friday. Friday was also an expiration day that normally always follows with a lower volume Monday. No matter if we go up or down. The fact that volume expanded on the upside as we rallied intraday, along with the ABUNDANCE of charts making strong moves today in my portfolio, shows how strong this market is right now.
The next couple of days is going to get quite boring. I doubt there will be much price movement in the indexes and with the lack of volume there probably will not be a lot of action in a lot of stocks. However, I am sure some fund favorites will get a nice markup in this low volume environment. This is the time of year when people get that "happy" feeling.
One day this market will stop going up and we will have to sell en mass, instead of taking profits on the way up. Until then the Christmas/Hanukkah party has started early and so far this party is rocking!
Interesting Fact of Night: SP600 is up 61% since the March 2000 top!!! As Gary B. Smith said, when referring to the Russell 2000 all-time highs, "what bear market?"
New Swing Longs: TIII STMP PTC ASVI GME.B ALY MMUS SCHN PAAS ALXN GG KGC NXTP ORA
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-285% BMD-265% DESC-178% GMXR-105% WIRE-68% SPNC-63% ACR-61% CMTL-57% ANAD-56% CBG-48% SMTS-43% MNG-42% HITK-41% BNT-40% CNVR-40% UHAL-40% CMED-38% OXPS-36% GES-34% NWRE-34% LMIA-32% EAGL-31% CRDN-29% TRAD-27% CNET-25% PEIX RADS CKCM CWTR RWC SXC WOOF TESOF MRGE HOM MRB AUY SVA TOMO IT CLZR SBAC CDE TFSM NXG GRS TNOX CHRD Q DEZ MU SILCF ICTG CALP
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: ARM SYMC
Stocks On Radar Screen: GROW JMBI ARBA EMBT VISG SIFY FUR OCPI
Friday, November 18, 2005
Markets End Week On A Positive Note; 5th Straight Week Up For Nasdaq
The stock market continued its bullish posture, on Friday, with all the indexes finishing higher on an increase in volume. This follow-through from yesterdays bullish day was very positive, especially with the Nasdaq gapping higher at the morning. Holding that gap up was very bullish. Along with the higher volume was pretty good breadth across the board. The Semiconductor Index rallied 2.5% thanks to MRVL which only adds to the momentum we are seeing in tech stocks. That recent strength along with the SP500 joining the Nasdaq in hitting 4 1/2 year highs is a beautiful thing to behold if you are long this market.
The stock market continues to ignore all fears that the news media and bears can throw at it. Any dip is bought and the fact the bears can't get much going to the downside shows you how hard it is to stop momentum once it gets going. This makes it hard for the bears who turn bullish to hop on. They are late and already see big gains in the indexes and stocks they watch and are too afraid to "buy at the top." So instead they do nothing, sit back, and bad mouth the market so they can get a piece of it. So now what do they do (or I heard them start doing today)? They start calling for a top. "The market is up too much, It is way too overbought," is usually what it sounds like. But no matter how loud they say it or how often they say it, you should ignore it. Their "top calling" is good news. That is what we need to keep this market moving to the upside. A heavy level of disbelief.
Granted, the markets have gone up a lot without a rest. But that is normal in really strong bull markets that have the sectors participating in it as we do now. No one said the markets were rational. That is why we go so far up without resting and we, subsequently in the future, always crash. The markets are basically a market of supply and demand. And that supply and demand is dictated by humans who are, by nature, way too overly emotional creatures. So when are money is on the line, most people see either greed or fear and act in accordance. And like a herd of rich preppy teenagers, when somebody is doing something new and cool everyone has to do it. And right now that new and cool thing is buying stocks again.
So if I write all this bullish talk what does worry me then? Not too much. The biggest thing I am worried about right now is the amount of bullishness I hear on CNBC from portfolio managers. But since the average Joe Sixpack that doesn't actively invest in the market thinks we are still in a recession and doesnt realize that the Nasdaq is up almost 100% since the 2002 bottom, I feel confident the bulls will continue to have the upper advantage.
I mean, come on, I dont care how much you hate GWB, the deficit, or the war. That doesn't make you money now to have later on to use the way you want to use it. If it is contribute to a Communist party, pay off your credit card bill, or donate to a world peace cause, you will not be able to do it because instead of taking action and profiting from the trend of the market you sat behind and complained about a wonderful rally happening when the guy you hate is in office. I didn't like Clinton, yet the stock market the Republican congress helped ignite, was good enough for me to profit off of. Oh yeah, and to say that Clinton or Reagan was responsible for the rally in the 1990's is just ignorant. Technology and its leep-and-bounds advances was causing that rally to happen NO MATTER WHAT. The advances that are made in technology, by default, will always allow the market to rally over time. That is why you can go back during any year and 20 years later make money in the stock market, no matter what year you start.
Didn't MSFT just leak a memo about Web 2.0? Has anyone heard of Nanotechnology, Artificial Intelligence, or Broadband? Ah the future looks bright my friends. Until this market turns lower, only a very angry and sad bear can hate this market. I am agnostic on it. But while it moves up I will have my bull cake and eat it to.
Look forward to the comments!!
New Swing Longs: RWC CLZR WLT CEY GGR CHINA CHRD KPA CALP BRCM RADS(if Cramer daytraders don't gap it up too much)
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-267% BMD-244% GMXR-91% RES-66% WIRE-62% SUPX-62% SPNC-60% MSCC-59% ACR-55% SMTS-41% ANAD-39% HITK-37% IRIS-29% CMED-29% LMIA-28% CRDN-27% BNT-25% FAST-25% PTIX HOM OXM NSC VIGN MRGE ICTG TESOF NNDS VAS ASEI MNST STJ SXC CIB ASPM GOL KEX ANST WOOF PAYX IIJI TFSM TOMO STEL MU SVA MNG TNOX RNOW NXG SIGI
New Swing Shorts: SNS
Shorts Outperforming Market: SYMC
The stock market continues to ignore all fears that the news media and bears can throw at it. Any dip is bought and the fact the bears can't get much going to the downside shows you how hard it is to stop momentum once it gets going. This makes it hard for the bears who turn bullish to hop on. They are late and already see big gains in the indexes and stocks they watch and are too afraid to "buy at the top." So instead they do nothing, sit back, and bad mouth the market so they can get a piece of it. So now what do they do (or I heard them start doing today)? They start calling for a top. "The market is up too much, It is way too overbought," is usually what it sounds like. But no matter how loud they say it or how often they say it, you should ignore it. Their "top calling" is good news. That is what we need to keep this market moving to the upside. A heavy level of disbelief.
Granted, the markets have gone up a lot without a rest. But that is normal in really strong bull markets that have the sectors participating in it as we do now. No one said the markets were rational. That is why we go so far up without resting and we, subsequently in the future, always crash. The markets are basically a market of supply and demand. And that supply and demand is dictated by humans who are, by nature, way too overly emotional creatures. So when are money is on the line, most people see either greed or fear and act in accordance. And like a herd of rich preppy teenagers, when somebody is doing something new and cool everyone has to do it. And right now that new and cool thing is buying stocks again.
So if I write all this bullish talk what does worry me then? Not too much. The biggest thing I am worried about right now is the amount of bullishness I hear on CNBC from portfolio managers. But since the average Joe Sixpack that doesn't actively invest in the market thinks we are still in a recession and doesnt realize that the Nasdaq is up almost 100% since the 2002 bottom, I feel confident the bulls will continue to have the upper advantage.
I mean, come on, I dont care how much you hate GWB, the deficit, or the war. That doesn't make you money now to have later on to use the way you want to use it. If it is contribute to a Communist party, pay off your credit card bill, or donate to a world peace cause, you will not be able to do it because instead of taking action and profiting from the trend of the market you sat behind and complained about a wonderful rally happening when the guy you hate is in office. I didn't like Clinton, yet the stock market the Republican congress helped ignite, was good enough for me to profit off of. Oh yeah, and to say that Clinton or Reagan was responsible for the rally in the 1990's is just ignorant. Technology and its leep-and-bounds advances was causing that rally to happen NO MATTER WHAT. The advances that are made in technology, by default, will always allow the market to rally over time. That is why you can go back during any year and 20 years later make money in the stock market, no matter what year you start.
Didn't MSFT just leak a memo about Web 2.0? Has anyone heard of Nanotechnology, Artificial Intelligence, or Broadband? Ah the future looks bright my friends. Until this market turns lower, only a very angry and sad bear can hate this market. I am agnostic on it. But while it moves up I will have my bull cake and eat it to.
Look forward to the comments!!
New Swing Longs: RWC CLZR WLT CEY GGR CHINA CHRD KPA CALP BRCM RADS(if Cramer daytraders don't gap it up too much)
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-267% BMD-244% GMXR-91% RES-66% WIRE-62% SUPX-62% SPNC-60% MSCC-59% ACR-55% SMTS-41% ANAD-39% HITK-37% IRIS-29% CMED-29% LMIA-28% CRDN-27% BNT-25% FAST-25% PTIX HOM OXM NSC VIGN MRGE ICTG TESOF NNDS VAS ASEI MNST STJ SXC CIB ASPM GOL KEX ANST WOOF PAYX IIJI TFSM TOMO STEL MU SVA MNG TNOX RNOW NXG SIGI
New Swing Shorts: SNS
Shorts Outperforming Market: SYMC
Thursday, November 17, 2005
Indexes Finish At HOD; Broad Rally On Heavier Volume
Another Accumulation day for the indexes as the SP600 was up 1.8%, the Nasdaq was up 1.5%, and the SP500 was up .9%. Volume increased across the board but was not that much higher than yesterday. However, since volume was up it was an accumulation day. Another sign that there was decent accumulation today was the broad rally in all sectors which gave the market great internal breadth readings on the day and helped the indexes close at their HOD (highs of teh day) - All three indexes.
4 1/2 year high on the Nasdaq and ALL TIME highs on the Dow Transports are pretty amazing considering this economy is supposed to not be in good shape. Well, all time highs in another index along with the SP600 already making all time highs tells me that 10 quarters of 3% GDP growth is pretty good and the economy isnt as scary as the bears like to paint it. Silly bears, your opinions are worthless, unless the market is moving in the direction of your opinions. Since 2002, you have been wrong and at 4 1/2 year highs on the Nasdaq you are still wrong. Facts are for winners (fundamental and technical analysis), opinions are for fools (perma-bears that think Armaggadon is starting tomorrow).
Over three-quarters of my stocks were up on the day and almost half were up at least 1%. It doesnt get much better than this. What makes me more excited about days like this is the fact the indexes were only up .5 to 1.5%. If we would have been up more, I wonder what my account would have looked like. :)
More Commentary Before Opening Bell.
New Swing Longs: CWTR FFIV TFSM DCGN BFR NXG CDE AUY GRS BAM STEL PEIX MRB
Longs Outperforming Market: ESLR-69% NRPH-65% EMKR-60% SUPX-60% ACR-52% SRLS-45% SMTS-39% NUHC-31% OXPS-30% EAGL-30% LTON-28% LMIA-27% CPTS-27% MNG-26% ANST TRAD CMED CKCM NMR GOL NWRE RADN RTK RNOW FDRY SILCF GAIA UIC CVO BNT TEVA CIB MIDD FAST EDS PAYX CTHR SXC HOM KYPH ISIL NSC SRCL VAS ICTG KEX MNST FWLT SVA ANAD SBAC NOVL SSFT Q UBS ING
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
4 1/2 year high on the Nasdaq and ALL TIME highs on the Dow Transports are pretty amazing considering this economy is supposed to not be in good shape. Well, all time highs in another index along with the SP600 already making all time highs tells me that 10 quarters of 3% GDP growth is pretty good and the economy isnt as scary as the bears like to paint it. Silly bears, your opinions are worthless, unless the market is moving in the direction of your opinions. Since 2002, you have been wrong and at 4 1/2 year highs on the Nasdaq you are still wrong. Facts are for winners (fundamental and technical analysis), opinions are for fools (perma-bears that think Armaggadon is starting tomorrow).
Over three-quarters of my stocks were up on the day and almost half were up at least 1%. It doesnt get much better than this. What makes me more excited about days like this is the fact the indexes were only up .5 to 1.5%. If we would have been up more, I wonder what my account would have looked like. :)
More Commentary Before Opening Bell.
New Swing Longs: CWTR FFIV TFSM DCGN BFR NXG CDE AUY GRS BAM STEL PEIX MRB
Longs Outperforming Market: ESLR-69% NRPH-65% EMKR-60% SUPX-60% ACR-52% SRLS-45% SMTS-39% NUHC-31% OXPS-30% EAGL-30% LTON-28% LMIA-27% CPTS-27% MNG-26% ANST TRAD CMED CKCM NMR GOL NWRE RADN RTK RNOW FDRY SILCF GAIA UIC CVO BNT TEVA CIB MIDD FAST EDS PAYX CTHR SXC HOM KYPH ISIL NSC SRCL VAS ICTG KEX MNST FWLT SVA ANAD SBAC NOVL SSFT Q UBS ING
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
A Day That Really Had No Meaning To It
Today was one of those days it is hard to comment on as there was not much action. The major market indexes basically did nothing today, basically closing unchanged. The good news is that after morning weakness the indexes closed strong. Despite the strong close though breadth was weak all day long and there were more new lows than new highs. That is not positive, no matter how anyone spins todays up close. To go with the bad breadth, the two leading sectors today was Oil and Gold. I am not sure what that means. It is either bullish or bearish. I don't know.
The Nasdaq has been having a hard time getting over that 2200 level that has been acting as resistance for the past 4 1/2 years. That heavy resistance might be the reason we cant get a lot going on the upside right here. Another reason could be that more people are bullish than I thought would be at this point. The way the media rants and raves about the economy ready to explode into a recession, I was stunned to see that for the second week in a row the amount of Newsletter Writers who were bullish increased again to 53%. I definitely would have thought it would fall this week, after all that I have heard on TV, despite what the market has done. 53% bullishness is not extreme but it is close to that 60% level that marks a contrarian bearish position. But these indicators are not the final say. The final say is the price and volume action of the indexes. Until they start breaking down on higher volume, the trend is up and bullish. Just like overbought markets can stay overbought, bullish newsletter writers can stay bullish for a long time before market turns down.
Until the market turns down, the short-term consolidation continues in this very strong, resiliant market. All trends are up in all time frames: short, sub-int, intermediate, and long-term.
New Swing Longs: FDRY SNPS SILCF DEZ(replacing the 1/2 of position already sold)
Swing Longs Outperforming Market: GMXR-89% RES-64% ESLR-64% NRPH-58% SRLS-44% AAPL-40% HITK-34% NUHC-29% UHAL-28% TESOF PTIX ASPM MNST CKFR MRGE MNG DEZ UIC
New Swing Shorts: SYMC BCSI
Shorts Outperforming Market: ARM
Stocks On Radar Screen: SIL YHOO FFIV VLCM CNTF DAKT
The Nasdaq has been having a hard time getting over that 2200 level that has been acting as resistance for the past 4 1/2 years. That heavy resistance might be the reason we cant get a lot going on the upside right here. Another reason could be that more people are bullish than I thought would be at this point. The way the media rants and raves about the economy ready to explode into a recession, I was stunned to see that for the second week in a row the amount of Newsletter Writers who were bullish increased again to 53%. I definitely would have thought it would fall this week, after all that I have heard on TV, despite what the market has done. 53% bullishness is not extreme but it is close to that 60% level that marks a contrarian bearish position. But these indicators are not the final say. The final say is the price and volume action of the indexes. Until they start breaking down on higher volume, the trend is up and bullish. Just like overbought markets can stay overbought, bullish newsletter writers can stay bullish for a long time before market turns down.
Until the market turns down, the short-term consolidation continues in this very strong, resiliant market. All trends are up in all time frames: short, sub-int, intermediate, and long-term.
New Swing Longs: FDRY SNPS SILCF DEZ(replacing the 1/2 of position already sold)
Swing Longs Outperforming Market: GMXR-89% RES-64% ESLR-64% NRPH-58% SRLS-44% AAPL-40% HITK-34% NUHC-29% UHAL-28% TESOF PTIX ASPM MNST CKFR MRGE MNG DEZ UIC
New Swing Shorts: SYMC BCSI
Shorts Outperforming Market: ARM
Stocks On Radar Screen: SIL YHOO FFIV VLCM CNTF DAKT
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
A Needed Pullback; Small Stocks Get Hit
The major stock indexes fell across the board today, with the SP500 down .4%, Nasdaq down .6%, and the SP600 down 1.1%. Volume came in higher on all indexes today, giving the indexes either their second or third distribution day since the start of the rally. The consolation prize to todays distribution days is the fact that the volume on the Nasdaq was below the 50 day volume average. However, the volume on NYSE was higher than its 50 day volume average but still below the volume it saw on the upside since the rally began. So there was some light to the day. Another positive is that all indexes still remain above their 50 day moving averages. So that level of support is still there to bounce off of.
This market needed a day to scare the bulls and embolden the bears to push the short side. That will create a healthy backdrop for further upside potential. So the down day was healthy overall and it was what I was asking for. The constant negative news helps keep a less than bullish bias out there so any drop should help the contrarian trader. Slow and steady in an uptrend is much better for long term gains than huge quick burst. Those burst usually end in a big pullback. It is the slow and steady that wins the long race.
I have to admit, though, the selling in some of my small cap stocks was stunning and my account got hit harder than what I thought it should have today. I am partial selling some of my longs with big gains and stocks that are not acting well tomorrow. However, I am not selling a lot, for most of the stocks still have very solid long-term chart patterns.
What happens now is what is important. There is always ocassional distribution days during markets in uptrend but further high volume selling would be problematic and cause a higher level of concern on my part. But if we bounce from here and base a bit I will sleep much easier knowing that the markets uptrend is safe. If we rollover, be ready. You never know what can happen. I really don't think we will, due to the constant negative headlines I see everyday. But I have been surprised by less.
New Swing Longs: TESOF
Longs Outperforming Market: SUPX-56% SRLS-38% PTIX ICTG EMKR MRGE NUHC
New Swing Shorts: WPS EDO ARM
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: PTC HRAY NVAX VISG SSTI ELOY PEIX
This market needed a day to scare the bulls and embolden the bears to push the short side. That will create a healthy backdrop for further upside potential. So the down day was healthy overall and it was what I was asking for. The constant negative news helps keep a less than bullish bias out there so any drop should help the contrarian trader. Slow and steady in an uptrend is much better for long term gains than huge quick burst. Those burst usually end in a big pullback. It is the slow and steady that wins the long race.
I have to admit, though, the selling in some of my small cap stocks was stunning and my account got hit harder than what I thought it should have today. I am partial selling some of my longs with big gains and stocks that are not acting well tomorrow. However, I am not selling a lot, for most of the stocks still have very solid long-term chart patterns.
What happens now is what is important. There is always ocassional distribution days during markets in uptrend but further high volume selling would be problematic and cause a higher level of concern on my part. But if we bounce from here and base a bit I will sleep much easier knowing that the markets uptrend is safe. If we rollover, be ready. You never know what can happen. I really don't think we will, due to the constant negative headlines I see everyday. But I have been surprised by less.
New Swing Longs: TESOF
Longs Outperforming Market: SUPX-56% SRLS-38% PTIX ICTG EMKR MRGE NUHC
New Swing Shorts: WPS EDO ARM
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: PTC HRAY NVAX VISG SSTI ELOY PEIX
Monday, November 14, 2005
A Quiet, Listless Day With Little Meaning
The stock market did absolutely nothing today accept consolidate recent gains of the past four weeks. With no economic reports on hand today, that might have been a reason for the lackluster trade. Another reason could just be an extended Veterans Day vacation. Whatever the reason is, it is still nice to see the market pullback on quieter volume (NYSE volume was higher but mainly due to GP).
A nice pullback on low volume or some sideways action would be welcome right here to help set up a nice launching pad for a strong rally. A pullback would also help dampen the bullishness and increase the bearishness which would help support further price advances. The bears have been out heavy the past four weeks yet they have been unable to do anything of significance to the downside. In time they will give up and become bullish, but usually that happens later on in a rally. So until that happens there could be some great stock gains to be made out there.
Even though the market was quiet today it probably will not stay that way. This week is loaded with economic data that should light a fire under this market. With the current seasonality being favorable along with the amount of beautiful charts of stocks with great fundamentals, it appears we could have a nice year-end rally. But no matter what happens just make sure you stick to your buy and sell rules and IGNORE ALL OPINIONS OF CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN, etc. Those idiots who run those programs and produce those SCARY shows about the economy have never made a dime in the stock market and I gaurantee you they will NEVER make you a dime either. Ignore their negative biased news and concentrate on the facts -- charts, earnings, sales, return on equity, sponsorship, profit margin, etc. That is what makes you money; not the perma-bears calling for a collapse of US economy. How many years have they been on that? I have been trading since 1996 and I remember hearing about it then. Some things never change. THANK GOD.
New Swing Longs: BOT SVA PTIX
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-251% BMD-220% BTUI-108% PETS-95% RTSX-88% SYNC-81% WIRE-61% SUPX-53% MESA-41% AAI-40% SRLS-33% CNET-28% OXPS-28% LMIA-27% EAGL-26% CTHR HOM ASEI CKCM TSCM RNOW CPTS ELOS WBSN DJO LIFE CKFR MNST CMED VAS RSTI CIB ISIL RADN TEVA LCAV BCO ABAX BWNG BVF SWIR OUTL NUHC BNT
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: GROW ONCY AVII TIII MED STEL
A nice pullback on low volume or some sideways action would be welcome right here to help set up a nice launching pad for a strong rally. A pullback would also help dampen the bullishness and increase the bearishness which would help support further price advances. The bears have been out heavy the past four weeks yet they have been unable to do anything of significance to the downside. In time they will give up and become bullish, but usually that happens later on in a rally. So until that happens there could be some great stock gains to be made out there.
Even though the market was quiet today it probably will not stay that way. This week is loaded with economic data that should light a fire under this market. With the current seasonality being favorable along with the amount of beautiful charts of stocks with great fundamentals, it appears we could have a nice year-end rally. But no matter what happens just make sure you stick to your buy and sell rules and IGNORE ALL OPINIONS OF CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN, etc. Those idiots who run those programs and produce those SCARY shows about the economy have never made a dime in the stock market and I gaurantee you they will NEVER make you a dime either. Ignore their negative biased news and concentrate on the facts -- charts, earnings, sales, return on equity, sponsorship, profit margin, etc. That is what makes you money; not the perma-bears calling for a collapse of US economy. How many years have they been on that? I have been trading since 1996 and I remember hearing about it then. Some things never change. THANK GOD.
New Swing Longs: BOT SVA PTIX
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-251% BMD-220% BTUI-108% PETS-95% RTSX-88% SYNC-81% WIRE-61% SUPX-53% MESA-41% AAI-40% SRLS-33% CNET-28% OXPS-28% LMIA-27% EAGL-26% CTHR HOM ASEI CKCM TSCM RNOW CPTS ELOS WBSN DJO LIFE CKFR MNST CMED VAS RSTI CIB ISIL RADN TEVA LCAV BCO ABAX BWNG BVF SWIR OUTL NUHC BNT
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Stocks On Radar Screen: GROW ONCY AVII TIII MED STEL
Saturday, November 12, 2005
For A Slow Day, There Were A Lot Of Stocks Showing Great Gains
More Commentary Later:
When you are positioned correctly, days like today kind of sneak up on you. Friday was one of my better days of performance in the markets where almost half of my holding were up 1% or higher.
This market is way overbought and a lot of bears have turned into bulls so I am feeling a bit cautious about a lot of further upside in the short term. However, with how strong the overall big picture of the market is I believe we may get overbought and stay overbought. Also a lot, but not excesive, bullishness isnt necessarily a bad thing. Much of the 2003 rally came with bulls over 50%. It is when they get to 60% it is sketchy. Even then in strong bull markets it dont matter. It happened in 1995 and 2003 and both years saw the Nasdaq make 40%+ gains. Both were long term bull markets that had very little pullback in them. How is that possible you ask? It is because of the fact that these surveys that grab opinions of writers and investors and not the actual data of their trading. They may say they are bullish. But are they invested? And if they are invested are they 100% or 20% invested? That is why in run-away bull markets you can get 60% bullishness among newsletter writers yet have the market rally huge. It is because they are bullish and still have not fully invested themselves. You never know why they did this. Maybe they didnt "believe" in the market, maybe it was "too expensive," or maybe they have certain rules they have to follow. Whatever the reason it doesnt matter, if the markets are ON FIRE. The markets will leave a trail of dust in the paths of the slow-to-act traders.
New Swing Longs: CKCM WBSN KYPH ICTG ING
Longs Outperforming Market: VRTX-97% RTSX-86% BBSI-71% AOB-68% LCC-62% NRPH-58% WIRE-55% SUPX-51% MESA-39% TRAD-30% NWRE-30% HITK-30% CRDN-27% CNVR-26% LMIA HOM VIGN TOMO ERS CPTS MORN MNST NMR CMED BNT LCAV CPSI SCUR EAGL ARS SAY GOL CKFR CIB NNDS TEVA LIFE MIDD DJO SWIR VGZ TNOX BVF WEBM ASPM RSTI NUHC
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Cap Stocks On Radar Screen: TIII AKN CSU
When you are positioned correctly, days like today kind of sneak up on you. Friday was one of my better days of performance in the markets where almost half of my holding were up 1% or higher.
This market is way overbought and a lot of bears have turned into bulls so I am feeling a bit cautious about a lot of further upside in the short term. However, with how strong the overall big picture of the market is I believe we may get overbought and stay overbought. Also a lot, but not excesive, bullishness isnt necessarily a bad thing. Much of the 2003 rally came with bulls over 50%. It is when they get to 60% it is sketchy. Even then in strong bull markets it dont matter. It happened in 1995 and 2003 and both years saw the Nasdaq make 40%+ gains. Both were long term bull markets that had very little pullback in them. How is that possible you ask? It is because of the fact that these surveys that grab opinions of writers and investors and not the actual data of their trading. They may say they are bullish. But are they invested? And if they are invested are they 100% or 20% invested? That is why in run-away bull markets you can get 60% bullishness among newsletter writers yet have the market rally huge. It is because they are bullish and still have not fully invested themselves. You never know why they did this. Maybe they didnt "believe" in the market, maybe it was "too expensive," or maybe they have certain rules they have to follow. Whatever the reason it doesnt matter, if the markets are ON FIRE. The markets will leave a trail of dust in the paths of the slow-to-act traders.
New Swing Longs: CKCM WBSN KYPH ICTG ING
Longs Outperforming Market: VRTX-97% RTSX-86% BBSI-71% AOB-68% LCC-62% NRPH-58% WIRE-55% SUPX-51% MESA-39% TRAD-30% NWRE-30% HITK-30% CRDN-27% CNVR-26% LMIA HOM VIGN TOMO ERS CPTS MORN MNST NMR CMED BNT LCAV CPSI SCUR EAGL ARS SAY GOL CKFR CIB NNDS TEVA LIFE MIDD DJO SWIR VGZ TNOX BVF WEBM ASPM RSTI NUHC
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Cap Stocks On Radar Screen: TIII AKN CSU
Thursday, November 10, 2005
It Is Hard To Stop Momentum On The Upside
Markets can travel further and faster than you think. Go back and look at every bull phase of the market past 20 years. You will see during every bull market there were few pullbacks. Momentum once it gets started to the upside is hard to stop. Overbought markets can remain overbought for a long time. So all you perma-bears out there should wake up to reality and realize you are dealing with one of those kind of markets right now. Until this market rolls over you are playing with fire if you are shorting stocks. Remember, three out of four stocks follow the general trend of the market. That trend is long and strong.
If you hate GWB, fine. If you dont like the deficit, fine. I dont either. If you dont like the war, fine. But who cares what we think. The only thing that matters is the facts and as you will see below the facts speak for themselves. This is a great market for longs. Period. There is a lot of money being made on the long side right now. Now is definitely not the time to be bearish.
If anyone is wondering why I am addressing this subject it is because I monitor a lot of chat rooms and I am shocked by the traders who have been trading for 15+ years that still can not read the market and can not seperate their emotions from their trading. After 10 years it still feels like I am in the very first stock market chat room I ever entered. Some thing never change. Thank God!
New Swing Longs: ADP SRCL RSTI ASPM DJO ERS TOMO EMT MEL UIC
Longs Outperforming Market: DESC-184% LCC-60% ACR-48% MESA-37% AAI-35% MIDD-28% OXPS-27% LTON-26% EAGL-25% TRAD CMED LMIA MRGE MNST CRDN FAST LOGI STJ PAYX BNT MDCC SIGI SAY ISIL KEYS HSP CPTS NFLX WEBM Q ABAX GAIA PEGA NUHC
If you hate GWB, fine. If you dont like the deficit, fine. I dont either. If you dont like the war, fine. But who cares what we think. The only thing that matters is the facts and as you will see below the facts speak for themselves. This is a great market for longs. Period. There is a lot of money being made on the long side right now. Now is definitely not the time to be bearish.
If anyone is wondering why I am addressing this subject it is because I monitor a lot of chat rooms and I am shocked by the traders who have been trading for 15+ years that still can not read the market and can not seperate their emotions from their trading. After 10 years it still feels like I am in the very first stock market chat room I ever entered. Some thing never change. Thank God!
New Swing Longs: ADP SRCL RSTI ASPM DJO ERS TOMO EMT MEL UIC
Longs Outperforming Market: DESC-184% LCC-60% ACR-48% MESA-37% AAI-35% MIDD-28% OXPS-27% LTON-26% EAGL-25% TRAD CMED LMIA MRGE MNST CRDN FAST LOGI STJ PAYX BNT MDCC SIGI SAY ISIL KEYS HSP CPTS NFLX WEBM Q ABAX GAIA PEGA NUHC
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
The Stock Market Produces More Big Winners In Individual Stocks
The major indexes continued their march up after going lower yesterday. More sideways action would be great right here to get the bears growling again and help lesson the bullishness of the bulls. But upside action is welcome too as that shows that stocks are very strong. And that can only help your help your bottom line. Breadth was good today and volume was mixed so it was one of those days you can't get too much of a read into. Except to say, that for a market that is supposed to get weak it sure can't mount much of a move to the downside. Maybe that will happen later but for now the trend is your friend. And when your friend the uptrend is around you definitely can make more money with it than you can with your other friend the downtrend. Both are your friends but one is WAY MORE rewarding. What's the most a stock can go down? What's the most a stock can go up?
New Swing Longs: CMED ASEI CTHR LCAV CPTS SMSI WEBM ASML LMIA PEGA KEYS
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-241% BMD-219% DESC-171% VRTX-92% RATE-84% RBAK-72% ASGN-65% AOB-63% SYNC-62% CCI-59% LCC-52% SUPX-48% ACR-46% TFR-28% FAST-25% KG MRGE OXPS VTIV RADN BNT FWLT IIJI ARDI LRCX ABAX SMTX CIB SBAC MCX
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Stocks On Radar Screen: TRT ICTG
New Swing Longs: CMED ASEI CTHR LCAV CPTS SMSI WEBM ASML LMIA PEGA KEYS
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-241% BMD-219% DESC-171% VRTX-92% RATE-84% RBAK-72% ASGN-65% AOB-63% SYNC-62% CCI-59% LCC-52% SUPX-48% ACR-46% TFR-28% FAST-25% KG MRGE OXPS VTIV RADN BNT FWLT IIJI ARDI LRCX ABAX SMTX CIB SBAC MCX
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Stocks On Radar Screen: TRT ICTG
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Markets Take A Rest On Lower Volume
The major market indexes finished down today with volume lower across the board, except on the SP600 where volume did increase but it was not by much. Breadth was negative all day with few groups ending the day up.
The pullback in the indexes was needed today as the markets were getting a bit overbought. A pullback, after this good run, is needed to help create bases in strong leading stocks so that when they breakout they will have a stronger base to launch out of. This pullback also keeps people from getting too bullish too fast and helps bring the bears out of the "I told you we were go lower" camp. With that kind of backdrop it will make it easier to climb that proverbial "wall of worry."
So it was a boring slow day that didn't have much excitement about it besides TOL. The big news was TOL and its earnings guidance and miss. To that news I say: DUH! Every stock in the Homebuilders group started breaking down in July/August on heavy volume. Besides that, Ken Heebner the fund manager for CGM Focus Fund-One of the best funds past 1,5,10 yrs-sold all of his Homebuilder stocks earlier in the year. Why is that a big deal? Because he was buying them in August of 2000 and held them the entire way up. He invest in only the best of the best. He is the best and by looking at the stocks he holds you will see why he is. If you would have invested $10K in CGM Focus five years ago it would now be worth $35K+. What stocks is Ken Heebner buying now? Go check it out for yourself.
New Swing Longs: SMTX SBAC ABAX COHU DDD
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-236% DESC-162% WIRE-63% CCI-55% SUPX-45% LCC-43% ACR-41% NWD ARS VTIV SCUR MDCC RVSN MORN LDSH ARDI ACTG OPTC MECA TFR
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Stocks On Radar Screen: ICTG EPAX AABC NTII
The pullback in the indexes was needed today as the markets were getting a bit overbought. A pullback, after this good run, is needed to help create bases in strong leading stocks so that when they breakout they will have a stronger base to launch out of. This pullback also keeps people from getting too bullish too fast and helps bring the bears out of the "I told you we were go lower" camp. With that kind of backdrop it will make it easier to climb that proverbial "wall of worry."
So it was a boring slow day that didn't have much excitement about it besides TOL. The big news was TOL and its earnings guidance and miss. To that news I say: DUH! Every stock in the Homebuilders group started breaking down in July/August on heavy volume. Besides that, Ken Heebner the fund manager for CGM Focus Fund-One of the best funds past 1,5,10 yrs-sold all of his Homebuilder stocks earlier in the year. Why is that a big deal? Because he was buying them in August of 2000 and held them the entire way up. He invest in only the best of the best. He is the best and by looking at the stocks he holds you will see why he is. If you would have invested $10K in CGM Focus five years ago it would now be worth $35K+. What stocks is Ken Heebner buying now? Go check it out for yourself.
New Swing Longs: SMTX SBAC ABAX COHU DDD
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-236% DESC-162% WIRE-63% CCI-55% SUPX-45% LCC-43% ACR-41% NWD ARS VTIV SCUR MDCC RVSN MORN LDSH ARDI ACTG OPTC MECA TFR
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Stocks On Radar Screen: ICTG EPAX AABC NTII
Monday, November 07, 2005
Indexes Up For Fourth Day In A Row
The markets finished higher on mixed trade today, with great breadth. Momentum continues to favor the bulls as once momentum starts it is hard to stop. And bullish markets once they become overbought can remain overbought. I bring this statement up because there is a lot of chat room and message board participants calling for a near term top. Uh, maybe, but I recommend those that have www.realmoney.com to read Guy Lerner's article about markets getting overbought and staying overbought. Like in 2003. Does anyone remember that year? Or is our insatiable ADD too severe to remember something that just happened two years ago? Oh yeah. It is.
There are a TON of great looking charts and longs that are acting well. Until that pattern changes I remain long in a Bull Market.
I left out a few sectors yesterday on the leadership board. Here they are:
MEDICAL-PRODUCTS
TELECOM-FIBER OPTICS
COMPUTER SOFTWARE-MEDICAL
Those combined with the sectors in my previous post show you where the REAL leadership is.
New Swing Longs: SCUR NWD TSCM KOPN MECA BWNG LIFE ACTG
Longs Outperforming Market: BOOM-282% NDAQ-229% BMD-202% DESC-140% RTSX-75% MFLX-63% ASGN-57% AOB-53% WIRE-51% SYNC-51% THOR-48% ACR-40% HITK-38% HOM CPSI ITRI BNT ALO CRED EAGL ELOS PAY MDCC FAST NMR VAS CAMP WSTC TAYC CTLM BCO IIJI TQNT ARXX ABMC FIX GAIA
New Swing Shorts: QSFT COG CMCO
Shorts Outperforming Market: ECA
There are a TON of great looking charts and longs that are acting well. Until that pattern changes I remain long in a Bull Market.
I left out a few sectors yesterday on the leadership board. Here they are:
MEDICAL-PRODUCTS
TELECOM-FIBER OPTICS
COMPUTER SOFTWARE-MEDICAL
Those combined with the sectors in my previous post show you where the REAL leadership is.
New Swing Longs: SCUR NWD TSCM KOPN MECA BWNG LIFE ACTG
Longs Outperforming Market: BOOM-282% NDAQ-229% BMD-202% DESC-140% RTSX-75% MFLX-63% ASGN-57% AOB-53% WIRE-51% SYNC-51% THOR-48% ACR-40% HITK-38% HOM CPSI ITRI BNT ALO CRED EAGL ELOS PAY MDCC FAST NMR VAS CAMP WSTC TAYC CTLM BCO IIJI TQNT ARXX ABMC FIX GAIA
New Swing Shorts: QSFT COG CMCO
Shorts Outperforming Market: ECA
Friday, November 04, 2005
Market Closes The Week The Way It Began: Strong
A lot of sectors have been taking new leadership roles the past three months. So since some of you stock traders have been saying that this rally isnt going to hold. I would like to ask why are all these sectors making big moves the past three months?:
BANKS-FOREIGN
FINANCE-INVEST BROKERAGE
INSURANCE-PROP/CAS
TRANSPORTATION-SERVICES
COMPUTER-MANUFACTURER
INTERNET-CONTENT
TRANSPORTATION-TRUCK
FINANCIAL SERVICES-MISC
ELECTRONIC-PARTS DISTRIBUTOR
COMPUTER SOFTWARE-DESKTOP
COMPUTER SOFTWARE-SECURITY
INTERNET-SOFTWARE
COMPUTER-NETWORK
MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH
MEDICAL-SYSTEM EQUIP
Do you see that list. Those sectors aren't Gold, Oil, Metals, and Food. It is real leadership in sectors with real long term growth. The fundamentals on some of the companies in these groups are out of this world (ie...GOOG). So until we rollover and make new lows this market looks as strong as a BULL with big giant bloody horns due to the death of the BEARS.
No matter how terrible you think the deficit is, the market currently doesn't care and only cares about what is really important. GDP growth and corporate earnings. And both are rocking! Until that changes all trends are up.
New Swing Longs: OPTC VAS RL ITRI ELOS ARXX ALKS SHPGY PMACA
Longs Outperforming Market: BMD-183% RBAK-80% ESLR-58% LLC-40% AOB-37% GES-34% CRED-30% RADN PETS CAMP CLDN TRAD MRGE MDCC RVSN BBBB BVF CNXT NMR Q ABMC SYNT
New Swing Shorts:
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Stocks On Radar Screen: ICTG EMBX ESP
BANKS-FOREIGN
FINANCE-INVEST BROKERAGE
INSURANCE-PROP/CAS
TRANSPORTATION-SERVICES
COMPUTER-MANUFACTURER
INTERNET-CONTENT
TRANSPORTATION-TRUCK
FINANCIAL SERVICES-MISC
ELECTRONIC-PARTS DISTRIBUTOR
COMPUTER SOFTWARE-DESKTOP
COMPUTER SOFTWARE-SECURITY
INTERNET-SOFTWARE
COMPUTER-NETWORK
MEDICAL-BIOMED/BIOTECH
MEDICAL-SYSTEM EQUIP
Do you see that list. Those sectors aren't Gold, Oil, Metals, and Food. It is real leadership in sectors with real long term growth. The fundamentals on some of the companies in these groups are out of this world (ie...GOOG). So until we rollover and make new lows this market looks as strong as a BULL with big giant bloody horns due to the death of the BEARS.
No matter how terrible you think the deficit is, the market currently doesn't care and only cares about what is really important. GDP growth and corporate earnings. And both are rocking! Until that changes all trends are up.
New Swing Longs: OPTC VAS RL ITRI ELOS ARXX ALKS SHPGY PMACA
Longs Outperforming Market: BMD-183% RBAK-80% ESLR-58% LLC-40% AOB-37% GES-34% CRED-30% RADN PETS CAMP CLDN TRAD MRGE MDCC RVSN BBBB BVF CNXT NMR Q ABMC SYNT
New Swing Shorts:
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Stocks On Radar Screen: ICTG EMBX ESP
Thursday, November 03, 2005
Markets Continue To Move Higher
I took more profits today than new positions. Taking some profits on the way up, after stocks have made 50%+ moves is just a wise thing to do, in strong markets like this. There are plenty of new stocks out there that are ready to replace the PRLS, ASF, BMD, and NDAQs.
New Swing Longs: SXC MORN ICON JDSU TNOX GAIA TW
Longs Outperforming Market: BMD-158% BTUI-89% RTSX-68% ASGN-53% SUPX-41% MESA-35% ACR-35% CVO-35% AAPL-34% GES-29% NWRE-26% TRAD NUHC PETS LOGI FCN FAST PNRA CKFR MRGE CPSI CAMP EDS MU TEVA IIJI IED EAGL BKHM REGN ICGE ISIL BVF RTK LRCX AXE JCDA SYNT ABMC
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
New Swing Longs: SXC MORN ICON JDSU TNOX GAIA TW
Longs Outperforming Market: BMD-158% BTUI-89% RTSX-68% ASGN-53% SUPX-41% MESA-35% ACR-35% CVO-35% AAPL-34% GES-29% NWRE-26% TRAD NUHC PETS LOGI FCN FAST PNRA CKFR MRGE CPSI CAMP EDS MU TEVA IIJI IED EAGL BKHM REGN ICGE ISIL BVF RTK LRCX AXE JCDA SYNT ABMC
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Markets Stage A Big Rally On Very Heavy Volume. Most Markets Close Near Their HOD's.
The SP600 was up 2.1%, Nasdaq 1.4%, and the SP500 up 1% for the day. Volume came in much higher than the day before and well above all the indexes 50 day volume average. The markets rallied with great breadth also, with the NYSE having a positive ratio of 3 to 1 and the Nasdaq with positive ratio of 5 to 2. The above indexes have also now all crossed their 50 day moving averages to the upside. Reversing a trend of the previous two months when the indexes would fail at that key line. Also the downtrend line on the Nasdaq chart connecting the tops of the past 3 months has been broken to the upside. Overall a very BUSY and bullish day.
I would prefer to see some nice consolidation right now before further upside. That would help set up some properly formed and pretty bases that would help power a stocks launch. But a coninued move up would be wonderful too as there are plenty of current longs that are breaking out or about ready to again.
Days like today can make a traders year. My year was made today! This is the reason you buy great stocks breaking out of great bases in strong sectors no matter how bearish the crowd is.
Another thing about GDP. GDP has been growing at over 3% for the past 10 quarters in a row. That is extremely strong considering how we just went through a recession. Dont foget, right after the tax cuts in 2003, GDP was 8% higher than the year before. That along with 10 quarters of 3% higher growth is very bullish for the economy and I am not sure why people stress the deficit over the GDP growth. The deficit is very important and we need to get spending under control cause it is out of control. But the current GDP growth we are seeing along with the great earnings show that this economy is strong. How the media likes to scare people out of buying stocks. Even I hate the current spending by the administration but that has nothing to do RIGHT NOW in the stock market. The GDP is way more important.
Silly bears, bearishness is for GWB haters. If you bears could stop hating the President for a little while and instead focus on the facts of the stock market-Tech, Financial Firms, Insurance, and Biotech/Medical stocks leading-you might have been long for the advance also. When these sectors show leadership at the same time that can make for a very powerful rally. I am not sure why or how you could be bearish, after today, if you were bearish still the past week. Remember I was a bear when we were going down but now we are going up. So why fight the trend? Especially when you have all these stocks breaking out and making good moves.
Bottom line: I have never met a "rich" bear.
New Swing Longs: AMED NNDS MOT PNRA HXM CNXT BCO KFRC IDCC Q MPS DB MU BNT TGS LQU ABMC
Longs Outperforming Market(stocks with % show the price performance since initial entry): NDAQ-247% BOOM-245% PRLS-226% ASF-172% BTUI-86% VRTX-80% BBSI-58% ESLR-36% AAPL-36% MESA-34% ACR-33% LLC-31% OXPS-28% FCN SMTS MDCC GOL WOOF SUPX STJ KG CNQR ADSK SIGI CPSI BBBB NWRE OXM FAST HITK MRGE MNST KEX WSTC CTXS RLI TRAD IINT RBAK IVIL LRCX IT PGR RVSN SYNT
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
I would prefer to see some nice consolidation right now before further upside. That would help set up some properly formed and pretty bases that would help power a stocks launch. But a coninued move up would be wonderful too as there are plenty of current longs that are breaking out or about ready to again.
Days like today can make a traders year. My year was made today! This is the reason you buy great stocks breaking out of great bases in strong sectors no matter how bearish the crowd is.
Another thing about GDP. GDP has been growing at over 3% for the past 10 quarters in a row. That is extremely strong considering how we just went through a recession. Dont foget, right after the tax cuts in 2003, GDP was 8% higher than the year before. That along with 10 quarters of 3% higher growth is very bullish for the economy and I am not sure why people stress the deficit over the GDP growth. The deficit is very important and we need to get spending under control cause it is out of control. But the current GDP growth we are seeing along with the great earnings show that this economy is strong. How the media likes to scare people out of buying stocks. Even I hate the current spending by the administration but that has nothing to do RIGHT NOW in the stock market. The GDP is way more important.
Silly bears, bearishness is for GWB haters. If you bears could stop hating the President for a little while and instead focus on the facts of the stock market-Tech, Financial Firms, Insurance, and Biotech/Medical stocks leading-you might have been long for the advance also. When these sectors show leadership at the same time that can make for a very powerful rally. I am not sure why or how you could be bearish, after today, if you were bearish still the past week. Remember I was a bear when we were going down but now we are going up. So why fight the trend? Especially when you have all these stocks breaking out and making good moves.
Bottom line: I have never met a "rich" bear.
New Swing Longs: AMED NNDS MOT PNRA HXM CNXT BCO KFRC IDCC Q MPS DB MU BNT TGS LQU ABMC
Longs Outperforming Market(stocks with % show the price performance since initial entry): NDAQ-247% BOOM-245% PRLS-226% ASF-172% BTUI-86% VRTX-80% BBSI-58% ESLR-36% AAPL-36% MESA-34% ACR-33% LLC-31% OXPS-28% FCN SMTS MDCC GOL WOOF SUPX STJ KG CNQR ADSK SIGI CPSI BBBB NWRE OXM FAST HITK MRGE MNST KEX WSTC CTXS RLI TRAD IINT RBAK IVIL LRCX IT PGR RVSN SYNT
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
Indexes Consolidate Recent Gains
A minor pullback across the board today on good volume, for the indexes. The amount of charts that came up in the scan indicate to me that the high volume was buying power hidden underneath a heavy market because of DELL being down 8%. So this is no distribution day. Another positive, along with the charts (facts not opinions) is the amount of bears still saying this rally is marked up. We will see in time but for now we are going higher and I see plenty of good charts in Biotech, Tech, and Insurance. Those have some stocks with some HOT HOT HOT growth. So I am not sure why the bears are so negative right now but we will see if their prophecies come true. You know what would be the best? If the market goes sideways right here for a while before going up again. That will ensure the bears will overextend themselves and help launch a powerful rally. But just as cool would be to rollover. Unfortunately, the bears are so negative that it makes me sick. So I hope that doesnt happen. Either way, lets play.
With earnings starting to rap-up and all the bears in the chat rooms and message boards it feels like we might have crashed the past week. Instead we are up from then and still above the October lows. Until those lows are broken it is foolish to be bearish when there are so many good charts showing up.
A history lesson: During seven straight hikes by the Fed from 1994 - 1995, while people were very bearish, the SP 500 looked ahead and rallied 54% from Dec 1994 - May 1996. The Nasdaq rallied 61%. It didn't pay for those bears then and when this raps up it probably wont pay for the bears also.
However, we could rollover and all of this is wrong. Hah! LOL! Then it is time to short.
You have to be ready for anything.
New Swing Longs: GOL BAP MNST LOGI RTLX MDCC CPSI ZUMZ RVSN HSKA RTK UBS NMR
Longs Outperforming Market: ASF-160% PRLS-223% NDAQ-203% BRLC-78% ASGN-45% PETS CNVR OXPS EDS CKFR PAYX ESLR BKHM SHOO GES LWSN
New Swing Shorts: RTI
Shorts Outperforming Market: PRAA
With earnings starting to rap-up and all the bears in the chat rooms and message boards it feels like we might have crashed the past week. Instead we are up from then and still above the October lows. Until those lows are broken it is foolish to be bearish when there are so many good charts showing up.
A history lesson: During seven straight hikes by the Fed from 1994 - 1995, while people were very bearish, the SP 500 looked ahead and rallied 54% from Dec 1994 - May 1996. The Nasdaq rallied 61%. It didn't pay for those bears then and when this raps up it probably wont pay for the bears also.
However, we could rollover and all of this is wrong. Hah! LOL! Then it is time to short.
You have to be ready for anything.
New Swing Longs: GOL BAP MNST LOGI RTLX MDCC CPSI ZUMZ RVSN HSKA RTK UBS NMR
Longs Outperforming Market: ASF-160% PRLS-223% NDAQ-203% BRLC-78% ASGN-45% PETS CNVR OXPS EDS CKFR PAYX ESLR BKHM SHOO GES LWSN
New Swing Shorts: RTI
Shorts Outperforming Market: PRAA
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