More Commentary Later:
When you are positioned correctly, days like today kind of sneak up on you. Friday was one of my better days of performance in the markets where almost half of my holding were up 1% or higher.
This market is way overbought and a lot of bears have turned into bulls so I am feeling a bit cautious about a lot of further upside in the short term. However, with how strong the overall big picture of the market is I believe we may get overbought and stay overbought. Also a lot, but not excesive, bullishness isnt necessarily a bad thing. Much of the 2003 rally came with bulls over 50%. It is when they get to 60% it is sketchy. Even then in strong bull markets it dont matter. It happened in 1995 and 2003 and both years saw the Nasdaq make 40%+ gains. Both were long term bull markets that had very little pullback in them. How is that possible you ask? It is because of the fact that these surveys that grab opinions of writers and investors and not the actual data of their trading. They may say they are bullish. But are they invested? And if they are invested are they 100% or 20% invested? That is why in run-away bull markets you can get 60% bullishness among newsletter writers yet have the market rally huge. It is because they are bullish and still have not fully invested themselves. You never know why they did this. Maybe they didnt "believe" in the market, maybe it was "too expensive," or maybe they have certain rules they have to follow. Whatever the reason it doesnt matter, if the markets are ON FIRE. The markets will leave a trail of dust in the paths of the slow-to-act traders.
New Swing Longs: CKCM WBSN KYPH ICTG ING
Longs Outperforming Market: VRTX-97% RTSX-86% BBSI-71% AOB-68% LCC-62% NRPH-58% WIRE-55% SUPX-51% MESA-39% TRAD-30% NWRE-30% HITK-30% CRDN-27% CNVR-26% LMIA HOM VIGN TOMO ERS CPTS MORN MNST NMR CMED BNT LCAV CPSI SCUR EAGL ARS SAY GOL CKFR CIB NNDS TEVA LIFE MIDD DJO SWIR VGZ TNOX BVF WEBM ASPM RSTI NUHC
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE
Small Cap Stocks On Radar Screen: TIII AKN CSU
7 comments:
How do you feel about CMTL? The fundimentals are great, but I am not so sure about the techincals. Any thoughts will help.
I really like CMTL. The company products are fantastic and very inovative.
A 130% EPS growth of past 3 yrs, along with 30%+ sales growth bodes well for long term growth in CMTL, If you have a longer term time frame.
The technicals are fine. The breakout which I bought was on March 9th. Sadly, though, due to the choppy market and CMTL failing to stay above 50 dma and having some down days on heavy volume, I averaged out of all for about a 16% gain. Currently the chart is still beautiful and since the breakout it is up 42%. It is a buy right here if you like buying these kind of stocks when they touch their 50dma. If it fails the moving average you cut your loss. If it doesnt, you keep riding the gains till you get some sell signals.
Bottom line: The breakout has come and gone and if you didnt get shaken out you have a 40%+ gain with a great stock that should have some more upside in the next couple of years ahead of it.
Great stock, great company, and great products. A winning combination.
Thank you for your question and I hope you enjoy this site.
Joshua,
I know you are kicking all the pros butt at street.com.
If you don't mind, can you share your year to date performance and the number of trades you made so far. If you want to keep this confidential then ignore my question.
Thanks.
Anonymous
Hello, anonymous.
Sharing my performance is not a problem. I have returned well over 100% so far this year, making this a better year for more than 2003, oddly. I am not sure why that is but I am sure it has something to do with the lack of volatility which allows me to cut the losses quickly without taking too much damage when they arent winners. The other side of that also is when stocks work like NDAQ ASF BOOM, you get a nice smooth uptrend without many nasty shakeouts. Hell these charts didnt give any blatant sell signals almost. All sells on these stocks have been to lock in gains.
I think the reason I am doing better this year than in 1999 or 2003 is because by writing this blog it has allowed me to become way more focused on how I actually handle my account. Another factor may just be I am maturing and getting better at handling a lot of positions. Which two years ago I was still afraid to hold over 100 stocks. In 1999 I know I didnt even own 50 at one time. So my style has definitely changed for the better.
As for the amount of trades I have taken this year, I can tell you that is quite high. Without looking I can say by the time the end of the year comes I will have made over 2000 buys combined with however many sells. But you have to remember, are we talking about trades on one stock or are we talking about total trades?
When I buy in morning, I buy at the market and put in limit orders the night before. So sometimes I execute two diff. buys on same stock. Then when it comes time to selling, unless the stock did not work right after I buy it, I partial out of ALL positions. Normally on flyers like BOOM, etc I will sell in quarters. 1/4 here and another 1/4 there. Using Interactivebrokers this method is the best method I have devised to not sell too early or sell too late while a stock is making a move.
I know I rambled on but I hope this clears it up a bit.
P.S. This style isnt for everyone. I prefer the IBD method for individuals new to the stock market. This seems to be just a slight advancement of the method. Maybe I am wrong and it isnt but this is fun for me.
2nd paragraph should say:
Making this a better year for me than in 2003
I look at your site every once in while and I am so amazed at what you do. I know nothing about trading and this is all over my head but I just want to say I'm proud of you!!
From a friend in MO, Patty.
Thank you Patty. God bless you.
That is very sweet and surprising to hear. That makes me feel very happy that you are proud of me.
Remember, you were one of the first individuals to hear me talk about trading right before that series car accident I was involved in. Thank you for everything you did after that. You are an angel.
Thank you for attempting to read my blog. I definitely appreciate it.
Hopefully one day I can help you profit from my experience in the stock market.
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