Wednesday, November 16, 2005

A Day That Really Had No Meaning To It

Today was one of those days it is hard to comment on as there was not much action. The major market indexes basically did nothing today, basically closing unchanged. The good news is that after morning weakness the indexes closed strong. Despite the strong close though breadth was weak all day long and there were more new lows than new highs. That is not positive, no matter how anyone spins todays up close. To go with the bad breadth, the two leading sectors today was Oil and Gold. I am not sure what that means. It is either bullish or bearish. I don't know.

The Nasdaq has been having a hard time getting over that 2200 level that has been acting as resistance for the past 4 1/2 years. That heavy resistance might be the reason we cant get a lot going on the upside right here. Another reason could be that more people are bullish than I thought would be at this point. The way the media rants and raves about the economy ready to explode into a recession, I was stunned to see that for the second week in a row the amount of Newsletter Writers who were bullish increased again to 53%. I definitely would have thought it would fall this week, after all that I have heard on TV, despite what the market has done. 53% bullishness is not extreme but it is close to that 60% level that marks a contrarian bearish position. But these indicators are not the final say. The final say is the price and volume action of the indexes. Until they start breaking down on higher volume, the trend is up and bullish. Just like overbought markets can stay overbought, bullish newsletter writers can stay bullish for a long time before market turns down.

Until the market turns down, the short-term consolidation continues in this very strong, resiliant market. All trends are up in all time frames: short, sub-int, intermediate, and long-term.

New Swing Longs: FDRY SNPS SILCF DEZ(replacing the 1/2 of position already sold)

Swing Longs Outperforming Market: GMXR-89% RES-64% ESLR-64% NRPH-58% SRLS-44% AAPL-40% HITK-34% NUHC-29% UHAL-28% TESOF PTIX ASPM MNST CKFR MRGE MNG DEZ UIC

New Swing Shorts: SYMC BCSI

Shorts Outperforming Market: ARM

Stocks On Radar Screen: SIL YHOO FFIV VLCM CNTF DAKT

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Do you think the bases (so far) of MOT, AMGN, and GME are all good? And for AMGN, do you think their have been to many bases so far and this base has a big chance for failure?

Anonymous said...

hows the natural gas stocks

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Natural Gas Stocks: On a long-term basis, I love them! For short-term, these stocks are not the current leaders. They are the old leaders. The charts are making bullish patterns currently but the volume at the top on these stocks look to me the way all OLD leaders do. Which means these stocks may not lead again. However fundamentals favor this group. So I think the Nattys are cool long term but short term a waste of money.

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

I see flaws in all stocks mentioned: GME MOT AMGN. Longer term they are all great stocks. I love them all. But shorter term these stocks (except GME) are in late stage bases or have broken out of late stage bases. The time to buy these stocks was in April-July. That is when they all broke out of great longer term bases. All had killer fundamntals at time of breakout also. So these stocks are great if you are already long but none are a buy right here.

Anonymous said...

New to this site, but will be watchin' your comments and picks. I Appreciate what you do here.

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Thank you very much.

I wish you great success.