THANK YOU EVERYONE FOR YOUR GREAT COMMENTS ON THE PREVIOUS POST. FEEL FREE TO READ MY REPLIES.
The stock market indexes all rose today-SP400/600 up .6% and NYSE/DOW/Nasdaq up .5%- as volume increased to give the markets another minor accumulation day. At first, the indexes didn't really do anything today and it felt like normal pre-Thanksgiving holiday trading until the FOMC minutes came out. After the minutes were released, volume picked up and the markets rallied closing higher on higher volume. Advances on the NYSE was 3 to 2 and on the Nasdaq it was 6 to 5 positive. The usual stocks that are leading this rally helped mark gains again today. Medical, Technology, Finance, Retail, Machinery, and EVEN Housing all rose today, showing where the leadership is. However, the Homebuilders are in late stage bases and besides BZH and MLP I do not like any of them.
The good news today to market participants was the FOMC hinting at an end to rate hikes. Well, goodness, I didn't see that coming. Joking! The market has been hinting at this since October. So this news maybe the news that helps rest this market a bit, since people are excited now that rate hikes are almost over.
Everyone has been expecting a Thanksgiving rally so this news may start a pullback that would help bring in some more bears. Still, it is hard to stop momentum, once it starts. I know I keep saying this but it is very important to look at markets like 94-95, 99, and 03 to see how bull markets act. They don't stop and rest for very long periods of time. I mean, come on, how long have they been saying this current rally is overbought/extended?
Still I did do some selling on some big winners today. For instance, I sold another 1/4 of NDAQ. Why did I sell today? If you look at an arithmetic daily chart for the year, you can see that it is making a parabolic well above its most recent base and it is breaking an uptrend line drawn across the top of the highs going back to February. These are signs to look for, for stocks showing climax tops. This cash on hand now allows me to buy the next NEW breakout.
Tomorrow is for sure to have lower volume. I was wrong yesterday; can I be wrong again? Does it matter? Heck no. Who cares. Thanksgiving is right around the corner. :)
New Swing Longs: FFFL CHE SNTO ZL LCRD
Longs Outperforming Market: NDAQ-305% RATE-88% ASGN-71% RES-69% ACR-65% CBG-48% CNVR-46% AAPL-44% BNT-41% GES-37% RY-36% EAGL-34% IRIS-33% CRDN-31% CPTS-30% NVDA-26% FAST-25% AKAM CHINA SILCF ITRI RVSN ASPM CTHR CWTR TWGP TEVA SMSC ARS KEYS SCUR GG PTC CRED TIII KEX ASVI RADN LOGI ASEI FWLT MGN COHU CTLM CRXL DEZ MU Q SBAC VGZ MRB KPA CALP BWNG ACTG KGC ING NXTP
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Shorts Outperforming Market: SYMC
Stocks On Radar Screen: ATEA SVR GAP CACH GFI
4 comments:
As a relatively new investor who is trying to learn as much as I can, I was wondering about your comment on the climax like action on NDAQ. I believe I have seen some of this type action in other stocks recently, like NTRI and CMED for example. Does the presence of these type of run signal a market that is running out of gas, or is this normal in any stage of a bull market?
I was also wondering about your opinion of OSUR, which brokeout yesterday although it didn't finish that strong.
Thanks for all of your information and work.
For a new investor your observation skills are quite refined. Yes, you are right in seeing a lot of parabolic charts in stocks that have had long term moves. But no it is not bad for market.
You see, if these charts like CMED and NDAQ pop up and you do not have any other stocks making sound well formed bases then YES you have a problem. However, there have been tons of stocks breaking out of LONG TERM bases. There is no way they are topping now.
It is an obvious rotation from old leaders to new leaders. But the new leaders in this market are the leaders that always power strong bull markets. Finance, Medical, Technology, and Consumer stocks are leading. That is bullish.
But for a new investor seeing the action like you did, you have a good eye.
OSUR was beautiful. YES. Once again, great eye. Because it did not close strong, I did not take a position in it. Another thing I dont like about is how sloppy and jaggedy (is that a word?) the base is going back to 2004. However it has now broken out of a base on base pattern and it will probably run and leave me behind. That is fine with me. There will be more where that came from.
Great questions! good luck
CWTR had a nice run up today on very high volume after reporting earnings. Is it still a buy at this price or is it too late now?
Also, if you look at the intraday chart, it hung around the 33.50 area for over half of the day. Is this because people began to sell after the run up?
CWTR: you are too late. It is extended well past the 5% point. I believe it is around 12% extended from last bases pivot point.
It is hard to make sense of intraday action. But if it stopped moving up there it could either be sellers locking in profits. But at all-time highs I doubt it is anything to be worried about yet.
This is why I dont daytrade. Too much micromanaging can get you out of some great trades. CWTR is fine. But not a buy at this level
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