Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Fed Hikes Rates A Quarter Of A Point, GOOG Crashes, And The President Gives The State Of The Union Speech. Finally Some Excitement!

The stock market major indexes were mixed today with the Nasdaq and SP 500 closing lower while the SP 400 and SP 600 rose for the day. The Nasdaq was lower by .1% and the SP by .4%. Volume was higher on all indexes but I can not possibly call a less than .5% drop in the indexes a distribution day. However, we have set ourselfs up for one tomorrow, after GOOG earnings miss. A sidenote to my comments of the SP 500 not having a distribution day is that IBD is calling this day a distribution day. IBD has a longer and better track record than me, so we shall see if they are right like always.

Tons of news stories were out there today to give the market something to talk about. OPEC meetings, Alito confirmed to the Supreme Court, the Presidents State of the Union address, GOOG huge after-hours earnings miss, and most importantly the FOMC hiking rates another 1/4 of a point along with Sir Greenspan stepping down as head of the Fed.

The FOMC 1/4 point hike was delivered along with the removal of the statement "some further measured policy firming is likely," and replaced with "some further policy firming may be needed." This states to me that the Fed is probably done. If they are not done here, the most we should expect is one more hike. Why? Because the former statement that was removed today has been in at least the last 12 FOMC statements since the hikes started.

The markets continue to act really well in the small and mid cap world and I continue to take small profits on the way up on the stocks that have done really well for me. Along with that I am going to start trimming some of my laggards to raise some cash. Some stocks recently have been going up on low volume and that is a sign to sell 10-25% if they have had some nice gains.

We have to be ready for anything, however, since GOOG's stock got thwomped last night. GOOG missed fourth quarter earnings and subsequently fell 19% at one point after-hours. As IBD has noted it is 3% of the Nasdaq composite so it is going to hit it hard tomorrow. However, a panic is not necessary if your stocks continue to look like TRAD ERS TXCO and BLD. GOOG has nothing to do with them. Therefore, GOOG should have nothing to do with your trading decisions unless your stocks give you sell signals.

Stay disciplined, follow the CANSLIM method, ignore the C(ommunist) N(ews) N(etwork) commentary, and keep smiling.


New Swing Longs: FSII MTZ VSL

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market: ATHR-62% WIRE-82% DXPE EAGL-45% ARS-36% KNXA DMC XRTX MCX-46% KEYS FFIV FNX ORA-48% TOMO TMI BRNC AU-36% VLG GRS-67% STX SWN BOOM-435% NEM LCAV THOR-88% DB ACR-82% CHE PNRG LCC-43% PAY TRAD-75% MDCC OXPS-69% TESOF ADBE GES-73% IDSY CKCM AAPL-63% SCHK PKE MSCC-67% LDSH-43% BNT-72% EMAG BBD-142% STMP FWLT-71% DRH SPWR-44% AATI WBMD ELN-45% VGZ-39% TXCO-39% SBAC-32% SNG AXE-26% ACTG OPLK BFT BGO-26% CCI-78% MDG TGB KGC-49% SPSX ADLR GSIG CMPX RTK-93% SMDI-41% ESLR-118% ZEUS-51% STD UBS CPST EDS STXN-25% EFII BAM NOVL-32% DEZ-119% DA KLIC GBN-31% APLX EVST LTRX SF

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: MT PXPL HOKU MXWL AOB TONS

Longs That Got A One-Day Spanking: RNOW; still left with a profit of 5%. 32% to 5% overnight. Like I keep saying, when you trade long enough and as many different stocks as I do you are bound to have one like this every once in a while. But this goes to show if you buy right, like GOOG, you can take a BIG hit and still leave with a profit. That is all a good trader can ask for.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Josh, i saw in your last message that you where a highschool graduate from St. Louis and i was curious as to where you graduated because i am currently attending De Smet Jesuit High.

thanks

Anonymous said...

Curtis where is your blog?

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

I graduated from Union High School

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Homebuilders are done. The short opportunity has passed. Best to move on.

Good to also see a fellow trader that lives on Maui.

I wish you the best of luck
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