Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Small Decline For Stocks; Volume Increases Across The Board

The SP 500 and Nasdaq lost ground today on higher volume. The good news was that the day's losses were not big enough to call this an outright distribution day. But that isn't comforting unless we can start making new highs on these indexes to go along with the SP 600. The action of the SP and Nasdaq is starting to look like churning to me and that is, of course, not going to be good for the market. However, with the way the SP 600 is acting it is becoming apparent (ONCE AGAIN) that this index is the leading index as it hits new highs and barely pullsback when the other indexes pullback.

So, once again, nothing has changed that was not said here on Friday and Monday. The two sessions since those two days have really revealed nothing new. The action continues to favor the small caps and not favor the big caps. If you read the previous post you will see the current trend of the market in all time frames I look at.

Until the good looking charts stop showing up on my scan, I will go against the public crowd and remain bullish.

New Swing Longs: GRZ PSPT BLD DA

New Swing Shorts: Later

Longs Outperforming Market: ERS-77% GOL-54% IDSY GRS-48% CKCM RVSN TOMO ITRN AU-29% MFLX-149% LDSH-42% ROK MNG-86% ARS-25% FFIV NEM PETS-130% OXPS-66% DSGX-35% VSEC-28% NTG RATE-113% KNXA CIB-29% BNT-54% JBL NWRE-72% DB SF RUSHA TMI PKE CTXS CRDN-54% STMP IKAN WBMD FLWT-54% GIGM-87% DMX TGB SMDI FLML DEZ-89% ANX-34% ZEUS-44% MMUS MSPD NTO-28% BGC-30% NOVL-26% IED-27% RSTI BFT STEL ING BWNG-38% NXG-55% KLIC COGO SBAC BEAS STD MEL CMPX ATHR-27% BAM FC

Shorts Outperforming Market: HW JNJ PVX

Stocks On Radar Screen: FHR MTZ LSI MNKD PEIX PTC SLNK TXI SNG MT FSII

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on the base MMUS is forming now? I see you are long it currently. In your opinion, is the cup too choppy or does it look OK for a buy here? Thanks for your help and blog.

Anonymous said...

Hey Josh,
How many positions do you usually have at any one time. BTW,I really enjoy reading your posts, keep up the good work.


Ron

Anonymous said...

How long do you usually hold your positions?

Anonymous said...

Hey Josh, I am looking at NSM and i was wondering what you thought.

thanks

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

MMUS is forming a beautiful what I would call base on base formation. It has completed it and broken out from it today.

The cup is very choppy. I dont think it is OK for a buy here. I think it needs to pullback then you take some. I got the stock as it bounced off the 50dma on high volume. I did that knowing it might take a huge chunk of my cash if it failed and closed below the 50dma. That risk/reward was fine.

But the risk/reward here is too dangerous. However, saying that I do believe MMUS is going much higher. I just think it is too risky to buy here.
....................................
I can hold up to 200 positions I am sure if I had to. It is not me that decides how many stocks I pick it is the market. The stock market has NEVER EVER given me this many great looking charts. Not in 1998, 99, or 03. This is the strongest market for overall action I have seen in my 10 plus years doing this.

The market is offering me sooo many good looking charts I have no choice, it feels, but to purchase them all.

This is how James DePorre trades also.

The reason I do this and dont concentrate all my money in the best 3-5 I think are going to hit homeruns is because I never pick the home runs. I would not have picked CERS BOOM GMXR BMD NDAQ MFLX etc, if I had to only pick the best. I always pick the wrong ones. The PWEI (before the blowup) and the HOM.
....................................

I hold my positions anywhere from one day to one and a half years. NDAQ and BOOM have been holding for over 11 months.
.....................................

I like NSM a lot. The chart has a great pattern and a dip to the 50 dma is obviously a buy as long as this uptrend stays in tact.

I was long NSM on the incredible breakout in mid June. Unfortunately, it dipped too much in October and I was forced to sell out the whole line.

But, I still love NSM's chart and sector.

A good long.

Thank you for all the great questions and comments. I appreciate all of you for reading my little blog.

Thank You.