Saturday, January 14, 2006

Have A Great 3-Day Weekend

Stock indexes were quiet Friday with none of the major averages moving more than .1%. So we can basically call it a flat consolidating day on low volume. Breadth was positive on the flat day so there was still some underlying strength in this quiet day.

The good news is the market went up since the start of the year on volume well above average, since then the Thursday and Friday minor pullback has been on low volume. That is about as much as you can ask for in a healthy market. Up big on big volume, down little on small volume. Not sure what is bearish about that.

The bad news is all over the TV and the newspapers and the bears constant attacks on the market. That along with the upcoming earnings season could cause some volatility in some issues. But no matter what they say it doesnt matter. Until the markets actually rollover the bears are wrong. It is that simple. If the market and stocks are going up, and going up a lot, I remind you, then how can you be right if you are a bear? You are not. Just ask the HANS bears the past two years how those trades have been working out.

If you say to me that I am cherry picking an issue. Then fine. The most a stock can go down is 99.9%. Compare that to the 5,500% rise in HANS. You rather go long HANS or go short Refco? A 5,500% gain on bull side. A 99.9% gain on bear side. When the bear returns I will become bearish, until then the longs are always better and will always make you more money in a bull market.

Good luck out there in the investment world full of worthless academic theory and poor analyst with brains that are too big for this simple stock market. KISS! Keep It Simple!

New Swing Longs: LIFC TMI NGPS HOM ZVXI VTAL AMSWA TGB

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market: SILC-55% DIET-42% MNG-73% STX SEAB SWN AU IHS NEM SLW-35% SCHK UEPS RVSN BBD-100% VTS KEYS CRDN-41% OXPS-65% BOOM-386% TRAD-53% ITRN AAPL-85% VSEC-30% SXC ORA-34% DXPE ENER FSL MFLX-145% SAY SRA ASVI CTXS LIFE RAIL-29% RES-127% JBL MDCC-27% NNDS NWRE-70% BNT-47% ANST CIB-30% GES-60% PKE STMP MIDD-53% MHA IKAN VIMC ACR-87% TOMO DROOY-26% MRB-39% SFE TFSM JDSU DEZ-65% TSCM-75% ANX-42% BGO ECLP GRS-50% ONT ATHR NXG-39% ACTG NTO ARXX VGZ-28% HSP-27% RTK-53% BCF PPCO EFJI EVST BSMD-49% TFR-44%

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: BRY TRLG GHDX REX BAS SEED RUTH MMK IDNX COGO OZN ISO EQIX INB TVIA MLR CTG

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is the book Trading for a Living by Alexander Elder better than Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John J. Murphy?

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

They are both completely different so it is hard to say which is better. In fact, it is impossible to say which one is better.

If you need work on the psychological part and feel that is your weakness, I would suggest purchasing the Elder book.

If you dont know anything about charts I would pick up Murphy's book. But there are so many good books about charts (how to make money in stocks) that you can do without it unless you really need it. Then you can buy a good stock software (TCnet) and learn on your own.

If I was forced right now to pick between the two, I personally think you should purchase the Elder book. I just think the psychological aspect of trading to win is more important than learning the charts at first. The chart patterns will be learned by the man who pursues the market anyway.

I wish you good luck in your market adventures and thank you for the question.

Anonymous said...

Josh,

Father in law lives in Maui, Kihei to be exact. Love the island of Maui. Spent some of my honeymoon at the Four Seasons there...

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Yes, this island is beautiful. It is the most amazing thing in the world living here. It is really a fantasy world. Surfing, sun, great weather, easy life, and all with an internet connection.

If the population doubles in 10 yrs. I am sure I will move somwhere else. But until then, Maui is my home for a while.

If you ever make it to the island, let me know.

Anonymous said...

Josh,

Sure I'll let you know. Where do you surf on the island? When I do go I stay in Kihei or Wailaia (sp?). My wife and I really enjoyed Hualalai in Kona too...much more remote though. At least with Maui you do see more people.

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

I surf everywhere there is waves. But I prefer the Northwest, West, and South shores. I love watching people surf "the bay" but I wont paddle out until late in the season. Too many jerks and people who should not be surfing out there ruin that spot for the average surfer.

Anonymous said...

Josh,

I don't surf, but would love to learn...where do you live on the island? My father-in-law owns/operates two service stations in Kihei...

Anonymous said...

Aloha Josh
What do you think about MRX It's forcasted to go to 40, but it's diving.
Surf's up Idaho,
John from Ono's bar,

Mauiboypeck@aol.com

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Forecast are forecast. They dont mean shit. What matters is the price and you are in a bad stock. I dont like the chart. I dont like the fundamentals.

This stock should be sold.

I wish I could find something positive about this stock but right now I can not.

This is an outright sell, especially if you were long before the past two days.