Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Thank God For The Media! Without Them I Might Have Wondered If We Were Going To Crash. Fortunately, They Are Always Wrong, So We Didn't

Since the media was so sure Armageddon was going to happen today, I had a feeling things might not be that bad. After hitting the morning lows early on the Nasdaq, we spent the rest of the day biding time and not adding to the damage. The SP and Dow did slip further as the day went on but recovered to close where they opened. So, overall I give the market a standing ovation. The media almost had me convinced today was going to be ugly. The market, like always, proved them wrong.

Luckily for me I only pay attention to what the indexes are actually doing. I will leave the predictions to the folks who don't trade stocks for a living. So what were the markets doing? Today the heavy selling on the Nasdaq hit it for a 1% loss giving it a big distribution day. The SP also fell .4% on heavier volume, giving it a distribution day. However, both of these indexes felt the wait of YHOO and INTC as both stocks make up a pretty healthy chunk of both exchanges. To see what happened elsewhere, just take a look at the SP600, Russell 2000, and Semiconductor Index. Those indexes were all up and plenty of stocks still show beautiful charts that in those indexes.

The stock market is still in a rally but hopefully some profits were taken when I mentioned taking profits last week. If you did that you probably aren't that upset with this pullback. A pullback that we needed, I remind you. If, however, you did not and you got hit with some nasty pullback and they are down more than 8% from your original buy point sell your stock. There will be plenty of other opportunities to make money without "hoping" that your loser will "come back." More often than not, they don't come back.

Overall, I will say, once again, this market did fine today and gets my congratulations for not crashing like EVERYONE said it was going to do. The chat rooms were a fricking joke today.

No matter if it is Japan, YHOO, INTC, EBAY, AAPL, the inverted yield curve, the uncontrollable debt, or interest rate hikes, you just should not care about the what ifs, unless it can be confirmed with weakness in individual stocks and the index charts. The stock market will give you plenty of time to leave the party before the big selling happens. The more you waste your time being worried to death about crap that may or may not happen, the less time you devote to research to find the next big winners. I tell you what there was a TON of reasons why I should have sold BOOM BMD CERS BCRX VRTX MFLX NDAQ ASF etc. before they showed me the big profits this past year. Too bad none of those reasons were FACTS. The facts (price and volume/the chart) told me to hang on and I did. Soon the facts will show me to sell all of the remaining positions and when that happens I will sell. Until then I am still long and strong these great stocks.

Never buy or sell on tips, rumors, fears, or greed! Just do your own homework. You will thank me later.

New Swing Longs: TVIA MMUS FLML

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market:ENER-35% RVSN IHS-27% THOR-80% KEYS AKAM-43% NTG LDSH-44% ASVI NGPS LIFE KNXA STJ RNOW-25% FFIV ADBE TMI VLG NVDA-42% MFLX-146% STMP VTAL VTS ASTE SPWR-27% FWLT-46% IKAN DRH VIMC AATI DESC BTUI-79% GIGM-61% TGC ANAD-99% BMD-313% NRPH-88% CPTS-34% ESLR-88% HOMS-31% LRCX IINT SVR-66% CNXT-44% BWNG RATE-88% ZEUS Q-26% CERS-196% AXE DDD-34% EMKR-112%

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: MLP BMI DFZ

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Maui Josh...

Thoughts on:

PRFT HOM WPCS

I love the food at Mama's fish house...very pricey but for the amount of time I get to go out there its not bad to splurge once. I am in complete envy of you. I keep telling my wife I'd like to move to Maui or any island in Hawaii to sit back, trade, and enjoy life...

Anonymous said...

Hi Josh,

Today I sold STX. I had it for only 14 days in my portfolio and was up more than 25%. Of course I enjoyed pulling some money off the table but on the other hand I'm not sure I did the right thing. This went up so much so fast and I think I entered the party very late. IBD says to take profits at around 25-30%, but also that a stock that is up that much in the first 2-4 weeks is up for more in the longer run. Your opinion? Thoughts and suggestions much appreciated as usual.

Regards

Anonymous said...

Hi, Josh, I enjoyed your blog entry today. I've only been investing using the IBD ideas for about a year now, but after reading your blog, I think it may be finally sinking in for me to react to what I see in the market, not to what I think should happen. For that progress, I thank you.

Two quick questions if you would:

OXPS is my biggest holding, and I am looking at it here as it makes new highs on lower volume. Am I right with my assessment? Thinking about selling at least a little here, but it has been very strong except for the volume maybe.

Also wanted your thoughts on AOB and CNTF, two chinese stocks looking like they are bouncing off of their 50 day MA. Thanks again.

Anonymous said...

Hi Josh:

Propitious timing on FLML!

Not only is it up abt 1 1/2 pts today but Oscar Schaefer, one of the participants in the Barron's Roundtable is the largest institutional holder with 3 million shares. Its one of his top 5 holdings.

You want to bet he talks about it this saturday or next, whenever its his turn to speak? I do.HA!

Picked up boatload of 20.00 and 22.50 feb. calls.

Win or lose thanks for the heads up. I might have missed it otherwise.

"A Friend", of your BLOG

Anonymous said...

What are your thoughts on DIET? It looks like they are making a run and if they do anything close to what Nutri-Systems did last year then this is an easy double.

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

PRFT and WPCS are both very nice charts. They just dont look right on my tc2000 charts and/or broke out too far to chase from their base.

HOM, I am still long.

Don't be too envious of me. The cost of living is unbelievable. I would be a millionaire by now if I did not live here and still lived in St Louis where I was born. But what kind of life would that be?

....................................
I sold down some STX too. But I only sold 20% of it. It looks to me if the trend continues with the eps/sales there is more upside to come.

IBD does not say to take 25%-30% profits in bull markets. It says that only in choppy markets. In bull markets you have to hold on to these stocks that make big moves quickly. It is the only way to really make big money in the stock market. The big money is made in the long trend. Not the short term. If this stock had crap fundamentals then yes a sell was good. But STX is too strong to have had all of the stock sold.

Aloha, Luca. I am so glad to see you making money!

...................................

I would definitely sell some OXPS here. I would not sell it all because of how strong the eps, sales, low debt, and margins are. But I did trim some of my OXPS. But I still holding 60% of my original position.

I love both AOB and CNTF. But both still are deep in their base and need more time to form the right side or handles in their bases. If you say that you see me buying stocks bouncing off the 50dma though, that doesnt matter here. Why? The bases in AOB and CNTF are not long enough for that too happen. Most of the stocks I buy bouncing off the 50 dma are in a flatter basing pattern, bounce on HUGE volume, or do both. However, both are on my radar screen and if they do breakout and dont go too far too fast, I will be buying both.

I am glad you are starting to get it. Reacting is always better than predicting. Keep reading IBD and you will take full control of your financial future.
....................................

You are welcome for FLML. Just the same chart pattern I always take.

Thank you very much for reading. I am forever grateful for your comments. :)
....................................

I love DIET the stock. You never know if it is going to be NTRI but it could be. It is already up 45% and with the current eps and sales doing well I dont see why it couldnt be up more. However, I have sold 10% of it, a few days ago, to lock in some profits.

I want to thank everyone for their great questions. All the questions were about stocks that had great patterns! Great job. Not a bad one in the bunch.

Great luck everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Josh,

I am long PRFT/WPCS have been for awhile so I was a beneficiary of their breakouts...

I'd take the Maui lifestyle over any mainland area...even here in the NorthEast

Anonymous said...

What about RUSHB? Trades at a $1.00 or so discount at present, yet is worth the same amount of equity and actually has greater voting rights than RUSHA. I made nice money making the long-short paired trade last year and it worked out nicely when the two converged. Patiently waiting for it to happen again.