Thursday, January 12, 2006

The Stock Market Pullback Starts; Bears Already Calling This "The Top."

Stocks closed lower across the board but they didnt swoon. The Nasdaq was down .6%, NYSE .7%, IBD100 .9%, SP600 .6%, and the SOX 1.3%. But all the index fell on lower volume. This is what you want to see in a bull market. The indexes move up on higher volume and fall on lower volume. And dont let the 1.3% drop on the SOX scare you that the tech rally is over because the index has been up 11% already this year. A pullback on lower volume is healthy, bottom line. The techs needed to pullback to work off their overbought conditions.

There are plenty of charts that look really nice out there and if these pullback to some better buy points we could see some institutions bid stocks up. Why? I am sure not everyone got this rally. I have a feeling a lot of people were underinvested and any pullback will be bought by the underinvested bears being forced to turn into bulls. Some investors will get scared and sell all of their nice gains. I think that will be a mistake as those weak holders will just transfer their stock into stronger smarter money.

Top callers get ready. A pullback just sets us up for a nice short squeeze, AGAIN. If that is the case, looks like you guys will be wrong again.

Whatever happens, make sure you know how to protect all gains by not letting any stock show you a big loss. Always, I repeat, always have a good cut loss strategy. I recommend newbies to vigorously stick with 7-8% rule on all losses after an initial purchase.



New Swing Longs: LCAV DESC KNOL PKE CORS ASYS MHA

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming Market: ENER ORA-32% CTXS DIET-30% DSGX-35% IDSY SWN GMXR-146% MCF LOGI-27% WOOF VSEC-27% NNDS ERS-38% SAY LIFE UEPS SXC CKCM KEYS NMR LCC-70% AAPL-82% RAIL-28% THOR-80% ADBE STMP SCHK BWNG TSCM-65% EMKR-129% AIX ECLP RATE-83% OMNI ANX-36% ELN-47% SVR-65% ESLR-76% GBN BGO SNPS DMX TXCO ATHR BCF RNOW-32% MYE LTRX ICTG MCX-48%

Shorts Outperforming Market: NONE

Stocks On Radar Screen: VLCM SCUR HOKU SFUN RUTH CRUS SONO SNG DCTH DYN SRCP CONR RITA CAMT PST SYNT DCO

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Joshua,
In an early commentary on your Blog, "How I Scan for Stocks" you enumerated and explained the criteria you use for stock selection.

My question is what criteria distinguish the stocks you select each day for "New Swing Trades" versus "Stocks on the Radar Screen". Presumably, all the stocks in both categories appear in your scans.

Is it a matter of the "ART" of stock selection; your knowledge of the company, its history , previous trades in the same stock rather than any mechanical criteria such as those that you use in the scans? Or, is it that the chart is not ripe enough? lol

I only invest and trade a specific sector and I find both categories of "New Swing.....and Watch List on the Radar" very helpful in highlighting stocks I've either overlooked or lost track of, if you know what I mean.

Thanks

All The Best

Anonymous said...

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpdodt.htm

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Debt sucks. But do you think this is going to cause the world to end?

What does this have to do with making money in stocks now? Did you see the Reagan years? How has the market done the past three years? If you worry about this crap now and dont invest in markets now, how are you going to have money to pay off debts later.

If you "worry" about the debt now and do not act on stocks going higher you just help the yourself create more debt by not investing in this greatest nation on God's green earth. By investing now and getting a higher return on your money than inflation, you should be able to EASILY pay off your debt.

Remember, debt is good. It makes you work not. A lot of debt is BAD! But some debt is necessary.

You disagree me. Hit me up!

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

3rd paragraph revision: Debt is good. It makes you work. Work is good for society.

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

not third paragraph. fourth! sheesh.

Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes said...

Great Question!

The new trades meet all the criteria I look for in longs. Therefore I will take those.

But you basically answered your own question! :) Nice job.

Yes it is all of that. There just isnt something right. Be it too extended, sloppy chart, really really bad fundamentals, or too volatile with a low float, there just isnt something right.

Great question and great self answer. I wish you the best in your trading. Good luck.