FUN MARKET.

NOT.

When I get it wrong I will be the first to admit it and yesterday showing only shorts and no longs should have been my hint today was going to be an up day. Instead I stuck with my guns and showed shorts. I went short even one of them, getting hit quite nicely in QSII. That is twice it has done that to me, btw. But what other two did I mention that could have lost you big money: MCRS NTGR. Hey, when I get it wrong I get it wrong. Luckily both were not in the best shorting positions so I skipped them. But bottom line is how many people admit they were wrong. Not too many that are not for real. But I am for real and for that I apologize.

Anyway, back to the market. Short-term SP500 and DJ-30 still holding the recent lows and had a nice (not great) day today on a pickup in trading. That is another accumulation day and since it was up 1-2% it counts as the confirmation day of this current short-term rally. SP600 still looks weak overall after making new lows yesterday and today does not get me too excited about its current condition. The Nasdaq on the other hand is a different animal. I am seeing leadership in this index and can tell by all the charts starting to show up in my scan in uptrends that are technology and internet related that the nasdaq is taking leadership. It does not mean it is going a lot higher but for now seems stronger than other indexes. Today it had a great intraday reversal on higher volume and I must admit the reversal looked good. However, it reset its current rally yesterday into a failed rally and today would be day one of its new current attempted rally. Crazy market? You bet.

Longs that look great for a swing trade: CYH DIOD RVI PYX MCRS HLTH ARRS ABB CHL SIVB

I have mentioned SIVB ABB DIOD RVI HLTH before.

So even though today was one of my worst days in a year, I am still up big for the year and handily beating the averages. That is all I can ask for. My positive attitude I believe is a key to succeed at this endevor. That is why a day like today doesnt make me upset instead it makes me happy to know that my longs might do better than what they have been doing.

Don't let this market get you down. It only will help in washing out the weak hands so we can make way for a real rally.

ALOHA surfs up!!!!!!!!

All indexes now in short term downtrend (except sp500)

SP600 and NYSE have failed there attempted rally by establishing new lows for the year and the Nasdaq gave another distribution day signaling it is not a time to be going long stocks yet. I had a rough day on the long side and that is my key to stay away from longs and stick with shorts cause that is what is working for now.

SHORTS: QSII PHM COL XOM CEO L LECO WRNC SFCC KSWS MCRS USU OPEN NTGR SHOP HURN BOBJ PKI PRZ GW EQIX LFG BEXP AUGT HOT OXY CETV CP TKC

I have mentioned some of these before but they are still shortable and still offer plenty of profit potential. Remember to cut loss above today's highs if they dont work.

ALOHA

Very short term is looking more up.

Sub-Intermediate and Intermediate term trends in all the major indexes are all down. But the very short term appears to be a small base (NOT saying it is the bottom!!). Considering technically the SP600 and NYSE is still in a confirmation of an uptrend mode and SP500, Dow, Nasdaq has not pierced its recent lows this month with all the negativity I am hearing we could be getting a nice tradeable rally. But overall we are under the 50 dma on all averages so I would not get excited. However volume did pick up today and my longs continue to work quite well. So here are some more longs to consider:

RG ALNY TUP AIR SMBI and two I mentioned before DSTI ASPM. I also like THOR and DGIN on a big pullback right to their pivot points.

shorts: VLO SSL CRS NXY HRS ATI CNL PRZ

Stop calling a bottom. It looks like we are just moving sideways to down for now. Relax and have a great evening.

ALOHA

Another distribution day.

These days are adding up. Anybody going long with a significant portion of their account is making the wrong trade. The big money to be made is on the short side. If you go through this past month in this blog you will see a ton of money has been made on all my shorts. Yet everyone wants to talk about longs. To be honest, forget about that. Grow up and understand I take longs in this market cause I know what I am doing. If you are new you should ONLY RIGHT NOW be shorting the rallies. Indexes are all in downtrend intermediate and short term now. The accumulation days in the NYSE and SP600 dont mean a whole lot to me anymore. The distribution day today along with a lot of shorts bumping right at resistance says prices should go lower. We need more fear and pain for this market to bottom and I dont see it at all yet. I cant wait till it happens but until then have to trade the short side aggressively and the long side with very tight stops.

Indexes all in a downtrend so remember these longs will probably follow the market but they have the patterns and I have the experience to say these are the better bets to take as long swing trades: STMP - on a pullback to pivot point, ENER - mentioned this before, SPTN - breakout today, CNB - nice tight base it is getting ready to complete, CNU - is green on BOP, has a ton of accumulation in chart, and looks like it is ready to breakout. CNU STMP are my favorite charts.

Now this is where the money is being made right now: Shorts: IPS PHLY INFY ESI COGT FRK SE MVK MOH NSS DST MDS
I have mentioned quite a few of these before.

Good luck and enjoy the ride down.
Aloha.

Two more longs

PBCT is a beautiful chart breaking out of a cup with handle pattern and a company with great earnings/sales growth. It is a buy in the morning. Cut loss at a move below 50 dma, if it pulls back on low volume, or do it with a breach of 40.39 price.

EW is also a long if it can make a new high (March high) on strong volume.

That is all.
Aloha.

Not sure which way market wants to go.

The indexes are ALL in an intermediate-term downtrend still. All are still in short term downtrends too, except the SP600 and NYSE. So still can not get too bullish but I must admit my longs have been doing beyond what I would expect in this kind of market. And then my shorts that made me some good cash recently that have bounced seem to be setting up decent short-term bottoms. But then again some shorts I still have that have moved against me seem to be hitting key resistance if they fail that can not be good.

To add to all of this I am noticing the beginning of some Internet stock bases: IMNY VRSN RNWK IVIL. So maybe after another pullback some internet stocks might take some leadership. I guess we will see.

Until then here are some nice charts that are worth taking a swing long position in remember cuttin losses below today's low is an absolute must incase they do not work.

HLEX BRG LB REG PRLS and...
OTD. I know I mentioned OTD twice before this nice breakout today and that is because it showed signs today was coming. It is "still" a buy because it looks like it wants to take out the highs it had in March. I, btw, am expecting more gains than that however.

ALOHA for Monday.

Today's longs

I have to get bullish now, even though I think the market is ultimately heading lower. The SP600 and NYSE are in a confirmed market rally and today's reversal on the SP and Dow was very nice.

My longs are working better now and I am getting higher quality charts showing up on my screens. I am off for a day at the beach but do have some new long candidates along with some longs I have that are acting correctly and showing excellent price action giving another chance to add some buys.

Good luck and don't let the market get you down. Just always be ready for the unexpected cause that is all the market knows how to do.

The best daily swing trade long position possibilities (some have been mentioned before -- a good thing):
ULTI AMHC BCR OTD HTCH SSNC WEN HWG PSAI TCI
The last two are very speculative due to the trading volume but still worth a poke. Remeber you should always cut your losses on these with a breach of the 50dma, today's lows (unless it is very very close to the 50dma), or cut your losses at 5% no matter what.

ALOHA and have a wonderful weekend. Maui No Ka Oi.

NDAQ

Everybody is talking about it being a scam stock. So what, if you can make money off of it. I wont say they are wrong. I cant predict the future but lets take a look at the chart. The stock brokeout on HUGE (heaviest of its trading life) from a short term (one and a half month) cup base and long-term (a little over one year) cup w/handle on Febuary 10th at 10.62. This breakout was of course what I like a stock to look like as it breaks out. I took a position in it that day. The only negative thing is that two days ago the breakdown of the 50 dma on weak volume scared me out of 3/4. Nothing I can do about that I was trying to be disciplined in a weak market. Now for the rest of my 1/4: I am not selling it today as it looks like another breakout (not blowoff top). There are flaws with this breakout. The base was sloppy but if the momentum stays from all the accumulation that has been taken place keep letting profits accumulate. December through April is full of buyers initiating the purchases above or at the ask. This is positive action not negative.

OO

I am going to be keeping an eye on OO for a pullback on low volume to around the 14 area. I like this daily chart and the volume surge today on the earnings looks good as long as today's low holds. Still the base is sloppy with wild price action so I might still hold off. We will see what kind of pullback I get before I decide. Just thought I should share this info with you.

Thank God for IBD's Big Picture

Now I can say I have to be on the lookout for breakouts in small caps. The SP600 has followed-thru as now I know what the volume is on that index. This is the time to start looking for good chart patterns breaking out in the small cap world as this index has been the leading index for a long time. SP600 is the Nasdaq of 1998-2000. It is "the" index.

Long swing trades for today

DSTI AMHC AFCO SSNC WEN ASPM PLLL AEL PRGS OPMR HMX GYI TZIX

What is almost amazing about this list is that I have mentioned half of these before in my past blogs. That means they are still working, still building good bases and price patterns, and are setting up another add to or fresh buy opportunity. Remember to cut losses either at a pierce of today's low, a breakdown below the 50 dma, or the smartest thing cut the loss at 5%. DSTI and SSNC are my two favorite new long candidates for tomorrow. I am in a hurry today to meet up with some friends so can not go into much detail about the individual charts. Anyways, read my market analysis below and check out some of these nice charts.

ALOHA

Who would have seen that coming?

A really nice day for the indexes but it was not a follow thru so I remain very skeptical about this rally. The SP-500 yesterday made a new low for the year, reseting the count of the attempted new rally. So today was the first up day, we now need to see a move of 1.7% on heavier volume in the next 3 to 7 sessions. The Nasdaq on the other hand has held its lows of year and today WOULD have been the "follow-thru" we needed to start buying good quality fundamental stocks with nice chart patterns and excellent speculative chart pattern creating stocks BUT VOLUME WAS LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. No conviction of institutions. If this was a real rally getting ready to start volume would have surged from yesterdays level. But that did not happen so I can not get too bullish. But however I have cut some shorts and will be looking for more long positions. If you think you missed the bottom. Relax. Only lucky people nail bottoms and if you think they do it consistently you are wrong. Plus the biggest winners in the stock market have not made their biggest moves in one day. It takes time to work out and before we go buying everything we need to make sure the "elephants" (institutions) are participating. For now it does not look like it. But we will see.

I want to mention one beautiful base. AIRT

AIRT is creating what appears to be a great looking base. That huge move from June to November has merged into a very tight-priced action base with amazing volume characteristics. Every time the stock bounces it bounces on well above average trade. End of Jan/beg. of Feb, mid March, now. Then the other days when it goes sideways and/or drifts down it does it on very low volume. I also love BOP's action and the fact that Moneystream consistently makes new highs after each bounce lower in the price chart. Very positive action in the base. No postion yet but waiting.

Don't fight the trend

I monitor around nine chat rooms throughout the day sometimes and have noticed that there are a lot of bullish or people that want the market to be bullish. Stop that. The market is going to do whatever it wants to do. The best thing is to not fight the current downtrend. Keep cash handy for when the turn comes.

Today the indexes all fell on an increase in volume than the day before. The pattern remains the same: days down on heavy volume, days up on low volume. Shorts keep on working really well so I'm not going to change my plan of attack yet. Keeping with the shorting theme here are some daily charts to check out on the short side.

USNA PTR HCSG POS JAKK JPM MO Y CYMI SGTL XRTX SEE CCK KBH USB SIE MDTH TCB

There are many more shorts that are ready to go again but I have mentioned them in my blog before. If you are really curious you can go back over the past week and get some more ideas. Some of the charts I mentioned above I have actually mentioned before. Remember that is a good thing. Not a bad thing.

Longs for tomorrow are a little short but that is the point the market is NOT bullish but two of the charts I mention below are both already up big for me but they are breaking out or bouncing off key moving averages on good volume. Will they continue to work? How do I know. The only thing you can do is have tight cut losses. To be honest you shouldn't be going long anyway in this market if you are newbie.

CVV volume has come into it this month. Some fund/institution has taken a likeing to this stock and is willing to bid it up. After having such quiet action before this month, consistently having activity now while creating a nice rounding base, BOP being very strong, and having this as one of the better acting sectors I have decided to take a speculative position in this stock.

INNO I am long this stock from 1/31/2005. The stock has once again broken out from its base on heavy volume. The BOP on this stock is green and has been maxed to almost maxed out since January. The stock consistently rises on good volume, pulls back on low volume, and keeps its price action tight in its base. I am up over 40% on this and still have not sold a single share. The chart was beautiful before (and at) its first breakout on the 31st and it is still looking good now with its second breakout.

OPMR has pulled back to its 50 dma and is bouncing on strong volume. This is a very pretty chart since its late September rocket move. The breakout to a new high on 1/25/2005 was the first buy opportunity since then it has steadily trended up on high volume, green strong BOP, but has not given a good safe buy since the 25th. Today we got it. Cut loss with a move below 50dma.

Here are some more longs I want to add to if they can make new highs: CNU ICUI TZIX OFIX. Notice three of them are health services. Medical leads in bear markets.

ALOHA.

NR

Forgot about this long. This is a nice long term chart with moneystream leading the way. today's breakout makes this an excellent long. nice long term chart pattern

No conviction to today's up move.

Volume once again decreased on all exchanges. Not a positive sign institutions are in a hurry to jump back into the market. But we still have to watch in the next seven days for a move of 1.7% on above average volume to consider us in an uptrend again. Even if we get it I dont think it will last. Market needs to make up time to put together decent bases in the charts so we can have a sustainable move up. Overall a boring day with not much happening.

I did find some longs to consider for tomorrow:
MINI nice bounce off the 50 dma lot of accumulation and nice BOP on tcnet

WEN everybody trash talking WEN but today it broke out of a sloppy base and with all the negativity in this stock I think a good trade is possible.

HTRN just some wonderful accumulation this year, BOP on tcnet is beautiful, and the price pattern is very strong. Today's new high on good volume is another chance to buy some.

AVL mentioned yesterday but with today's breakout a pullback makes an excellent long. As long as the pullback is on low volume.

AWGI BOP on tcnet and volume was coming into this stock before this move today. Even tho I mentioned it yesterday, today's strong move up on good volume signals the breakout is around the corner. If you are long from this morning's open 12.35 is my cut loss.

ALOHA time to surf.

Do nothing day

Today appears to be a dead cat bounce on the indexes. All closed higher but in the lower half of their daily price range. Not positive action. Volume also came in lower than Friday's selling. Not strong support.

I found some longs (but have mentioned almost all of them already in the past -- that is a good thing) and some shorts. But nothing dramatic on either side.

Longs:
WGAT
MDR
KV--A
SIVB
AVL
CHTT
AWGI
UPFC

Remember with longs you can cut the loss at a breach of today's lows or if it is really close to the 50dma you can cut it with a breach of the moving average.

Shorts:
CAI
IPMT
NLC
ELOS are the best four.
PSYS
MCK
HNP
WSO
PVN
MAR
ABC
AOS
SNMX round out some other charts breaking down at key resistance areas.

I want to mention also that I am not perfect. For example I took a beating on my CNTY long today (-13%) but with all the profits I have in my short positions it never (as should always be the case) even hurts the portfolio. Also remember limitng longs is crucial when the markets are in a downtrend like now. Trying to catch the current falling knife is just plain silly when the only charts that look good are medicals.

ALOHA

Before I go to bed...

When i wake up before the bell, in the morning, if the market is down a lot and my short postions gap down a lot as well I will be covering half of em probably. Usually I take half profits at 25% on the short side cause you can only get 100% move. Remember, if the market gaps down more than 1% or starts falling rapidly take some profits from the short positions I have been recommending the past week.

Still a lot of charts that can offer some great short positions

This downleg in the indexes has produced a 5% decline since I talked about the averages bumping up against their 50 dma in their downtrend. The stock charts were all breaking down past week culminating into what we saw Friday. What will Monday bring? How the heck do I know. I do know this, there are fresh shorts still out there and the shorts I currently own and the others I have mentioned have produced some nice profits. I have taken gains (usually cover 1/2 of position no matter what) with some of my shorts being down (or up however you look at it) 25% (CMC, etc...). Still a lot of my shorts charts are broken and if the indexes eventually bounce on low turnover and the individual charts look weak still yet another shorting opportunity may appear. The VIX is jumping, finally, and that helps indicate that fear is building. So my best guess is there will not be blood on the street Monday since a lot of people I talk to suggest it could happen. If it does I would be real happy and would probably cover almost all of my shorts expecting a powerful rebound. But I dont think I have to worry.

Best swing shorts for Monday: GOOG PVN NETL XOM CDWC CORS MTG SPLS ELOS EEEE.

More shorts: NVR ANF KBH URBN OXY PTEN ASCA VLO NICK RMCF USLM GP HCBK STR SU BWLD CDIS ECA HAL NFX COP AEOS MIK ZRAN BPT TDY BFAM BHI BBD SAP YRK BR MAR PPP DSPG.

Swing position Long ideas: PRSC breaking out of a base on top of a base pattern that started in January 2005. It is a medical stock and you know they do the best in bear markets.

Don't believe me well here are all the interesting charts that caught my attention Friday: DNA LNCR TKTX ABT BMY HYTM. The last two I have mentioned before. If TKTX could either base for a week or pullback on low volume to 27.75 I would love to take a position in this beautiful chart. Today's surge in volume was HUGE, BOP is green, and the price action shows excellent characteristics since March 2004.

ALOHA and great luck this upcoming week.

Learning a valuable lesson AGAIN

USG OI UGI I recommended these a couple days of go and had to cut all losses according to my rules. But I learned a valuable lesson a breakout on news in a bear market is not a good position to take. This has happened to me before and I still keep falling for this. Maybe now I have learned my lesson. In a bull market the news usually still moves a breakout. Example of breakout on heavy volume yesterday that i mentioned MAIN. Huge volume move for no reason. And if you think the news of their upcoming earnings call caused the volume surge. ERR you are wrong. Look at the move today. +4.6%.