Thursday, April 21, 2005

Who would have seen that coming?

A really nice day for the indexes but it was not a follow thru so I remain very skeptical about this rally. The SP-500 yesterday made a new low for the year, reseting the count of the attempted new rally. So today was the first up day, we now need to see a move of 1.7% on heavier volume in the next 3 to 7 sessions. The Nasdaq on the other hand has held its lows of year and today WOULD have been the "follow-thru" we needed to start buying good quality fundamental stocks with nice chart patterns and excellent speculative chart pattern creating stocks BUT VOLUME WAS LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. No conviction of institutions. If this was a real rally getting ready to start volume would have surged from yesterdays level. But that did not happen so I can not get too bullish. But however I have cut some shorts and will be looking for more long positions. If you think you missed the bottom. Relax. Only lucky people nail bottoms and if you think they do it consistently you are wrong. Plus the biggest winners in the stock market have not made their biggest moves in one day. It takes time to work out and before we go buying everything we need to make sure the "elephants" (institutions) are participating. For now it does not look like it. But we will see.

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