Weekend Trades (No Commentary)

No commentary this weekend as the market started a small pullback and did not do much else on Friday.

New Swing Longs: ARD KLAC USNA MRGE SVR MFE

Another Buy Opportunity: SGDE

Positions Outperforming Market (Up 5% or more on the day): MIDD KNDL FORD STEM WEN OPMR NDAQ NGAS NTRI CUTR TGE RT ABP GERN TRGL VDSI ENTU

ALOHA!

Corporate Earnings at All-Time Highs

Oh yeah, the economy sucks. Yeah right! I am so sick of listening to the media establishment always casting doubt on this great market. The consumer confidence numbers, no matter what poll you look at, would make you think we are in a recession. Hardly; the economic numbers look great, jobs look good, GDP is growing faster than our European brothers, the stock market is heating up, and the deficit is shrinking. What more do people want? I know. They want a housing bubble to pop, terrorist to scare us from traveling, and just about anything to make a Republican Whitehouse look terrible. No matter what your politics are, you should not ignore the great stock market right in front of your eyes.

That is my rant for the day.

The SP600 hit all-time highs, corporate America's earnings are hitting all-time profit highs, the SP500 and Nasdaq are at their highest level since summer of 2001, and housing stocks like MTH keep proving the "top" to this housing "bubble" isnt here yet. All reasons the long side is the right side right now.

Whether this market is going to roll over today or next year, I dont care. The most important thing to know is what the market is doing right now and all trends are UP UP UP. This will end one day but not today Thursday the 28th of 2005.

New Swing Longs: VSEC MINI NTGR MDTL PRST CNQR FLR AACC FLML DRAX BLKB BEAS NWD ENI MTSC PLUG CDN

Swing Longs Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): FOXH NTRI ANSI ERS SSNC CHCI DIOD CUTR NUVA SBAC QUIK WEL GTF

New Swing Shorts: DJO TBL HTCH LZB PGI WMI TTMI KWD

Swing Shorts Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): WOLF GMR

Aloha!!

Another Good Day For The Markets

The market continued to flex its muscle on Wednesday, finishing the day higher across the board on an increase in volume. This is what you like to see in an uptrending market. I continue to see biotechs and select medicals outperform the market. The telcommunications sector has also been heating up recently.

My point I want to focus on tonight is Regulation FD. After reading IBD, I got to thinking how much I hate this stupid regulation. No matter what, whoever bought Enron, Global, Tyco, Adelphia, and others, were going to get hurt anyways. Sarbanes Oxley and Reg FD are not going to solve it. There was a time, before Reg. FD, where you could see a chart sell off slightly before the blowup-You still see it today, sometimes. Now what you have are implosions out of nowhere. Just going through my charts tonight, I notice tons of upside breakouts and downside breakouts from consolidation periods. These types of moves gives the investor no safe place to take an entry. If Reg. FD did not exist there would be more of an opportunity to jump on the breakouts before the breakaway gaps. Oh well, looks like government has helped us, once again, by interfering in our free markets.

Bottom line: ABRX!!!! where did Reg. FD and Sarbanes Oxley come into play with this one, for investors????

New Swing Longs: MWP VLFG CTEC BLT JVA HLND GNVC RGEN FON

Swing Longs Outperforming Market (Up 5%+): TGE CERS WVCM RATE GTF XWG TZIX SIRF NGAS QUIK GLW

Disaster DeJour of the Day: ILMN

New Swing Shorts: ENWV IRIS PHLY WCG RCL ROK BUD CAJ BYD

Aloha!

Positive Earnings and More Price Gains

I don't have much to add about the indexes situations. All remain in an uptrend on all time frames. I guess, that is all we need to know. Base building or topping? Whichever one it is, remember to have a great cut loss strategy. But everyday this keeps going up I remind myself of 1994-1995 when the Fed kept raising rates and the market kept moving up. Is history trying to repeat itself again? Naw; it can't be.

New Swing Longs: LAYN CTGI SGDE CMCO APCC AAI CNET TPTH NRPH STFC WVCM

Swing Longs Outperforming the Market Today (Up 5% or more): BCON ELTK ONNN DESC NFLX MDRX DATA

Stocks I Am Watching For Right Entry: PLUG

New Swing Shorts: CBU AGR AUDC BBX OMM GMR SCSS

Not sure why I keep going short or attempt to. With a market this strong, going short is just the wrong play. Your best bet is to wait till the market rolls over then go short. Going long is the play, right now.

Aloha

Markets Pullback

It is nice to see the markets start to take a rest. After this very strong bullish phase of the market, there has been a rash of uber-bullish talk recently. Even though, the terrorist talk does add a "wall of worry" to climb, the majority of market talk has been, recently, crowded to the bull side.

Nothing changes, long term or short term, all the indexes are still up. However, a move down tomorrow will throw the Nasdaq into a short-term downtrend. All other trends, on the other hand, remain long and strong.

New Swing Longs: LABL THRX FLSH TRAD HYC NFLX CHU

Swing Longs Outperforming the Market: TGE FORD CERS XWG VIVO ENG NGPS BCON ABP ANX DESC WHR AWGI OFI GTF

Swing Longs Worth Watching For An Entry: MED

New Swing Shorts: DRYS TSU TRI GEPT

Swing Shorts Outperforming Market: JAKK JNPR EMAG(setting up again)

I never give my sells or covers, since I do not get paid for this. However, a free look at the stocks I sold for profits today should give you an idea of things I look for in taking profits. ONNN DSTI ANGO FRGO

Aloha!!

Me and my girlfriend 

The SmallCaps Is Where The Action Was At.

You think the market was boring on Friday? Wrong. The SmallCaps were up 1.5%, while the other indexes did basically nothing.

I have been enjoying my weekend so am keeping this short.

New Swing Longs: RES NOBL WFT NGAS ANX VIVO RIG GW NOV RT TEU YRK AX REY CVV SRLS EXPO

Swing Longs Outperforming Market: GEOI ABLE GNSS INFA ICON ULTI CIB XWG VLCM MRTN PHCC HHGP ABP VPI EMKR THE

This is why you play the individual charts and try not to worry about all the noise, whether it is bearish or bullish. I do not have enough money to keep up with all of these wonderful stocks that are providing gains that are just plain beating the market averages this year.

I just finished re-reading (for the 6th time; 5 times in last 5 yrs) "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin LeFebvre. Thank God I did. Words written in 1923 could not be more true today than they were then.

Aloha!

Distribution Day; Sell the News

Stocks finally started their retreat that has been in the workings for a week--the negative breadth, lower new highs, VIX 10-yr lows, high bullishness, and speculative ugly charts breaking out. The SP600 fell the hardest losing almost 1.7% and the other indexes faired just as poorly. Volume climbed across the board, as stocks retreated. This gave the indexes their fourth distribution day in the past four weeks. Pauses are normal in a good bull market, even though they sometimes look like something worse. This pause is probably just a short term top. No matter though, having a sound strategy to protect profits will keep you alive if the markets start to really pullback.

New Swing Longs: MRTN OXPS KONG DATA OFI SJR VPI USLM VRNT FDG ENER IDBE

Longs Outperforming Market Today: XWG ERS CHRT STTS BTJ

New Swing Shorts: CTAC IGT MDCO JAKK LRCX MNC

Shorts Outperforming Market Today: VRSN

Four Year Highs For Nasdaq and SP 500

Well, they did sell the earnings but what followed was something I was not expecting at all. Stocks had a reversal around mid-day after Greenspan's speach leading the indexes to close near the HOD and volume surged across the board. Nasdaq volume was up almost 20% higher than the day before. That is the kind of action you like to see during uptrending markets. The Semiconductor and Biotech stocks definitely were the outperforming groups today with many stocks up a lot. AMGN, GENZ, CELG will show you the strength in the Biotech group.

GOOG reports earnings tomorrow--lets see how that goes.

Even though I have been feeling bearish recently doesnt mean my portfolio isnt still dominated by longs killing the market averages. I remain long as long as the trend is up, however I do not like how everyone I know is bullish and expects higher prices going into the end of the year. A healthy pullback or long term sideways movement would help work off the "uber-bulls" overly optimistic sentiment. Another sign is this: I went bullish in APRIL/MAY after being bearish the entire year. Most people during the Apr/May bottom said I was wrong and the market would soon head down again. WRONG!! Now those same people who were bearish during the bottom and this entire move up are now turning into bulls (not all, but enough). This market is a momentum train that is very dangerous to fight against, so going long is the only prudent method right now, still.

I still think we are near a short-term top and think the speculative nature of stocks with earnings reports widely spoken about helps reafirm my feelings. We will see soon if the market will continue to move higher-which it does when rates rise-or wants a pullback to work off some of this bullish sentiment. I mean look at the number of stocks making 52 week highs compared to last week. That is a negative divergence.

Good Luck!

New Swing Longs: JUPM PLAB LRCX SMA RIO EOC ORBK VSEA DTAS IMDC SMSC CPSI GTF ACAD

Swing Longs Outperforming Today: STJ NGPS VTAL FOXH DCEL IDIX EMKR ASTSF BMRN HHGP ASML ICON CKCM GMXR

Aloha

Hard To Stop Momentum

Market keeps chugging along. I still see signs that we are near a short-term top. No matter what, respect the individual chart patterns and have a good profit/cut loss plan.

Not much to add, except the night was full of earnings reports. We will see what tomorrow will bring. I have been expecting the rally that happened leading up to tonight. But now we wait to see how the market reacts tomorrow.

New Swing Longs: FILE CUTR LSS ANSI WITS ORA CTTY HHGP NSIT ASTSF

Swing Longs Outperforming Today: DESC GMXR LGBT BCON GIGM PETS ADCT OPMR APT BSMD CKCM AWA VTAL XWG

New Swing Shorts: QLTI CECO WB SXT ACMR

Lower New 52-Week Highs, Poor Breadth, and Earnings Season

Earnings are coming up so we will see how the market responds. For now with all the poor numbers coming out on the breadth and new highs side, my inclination is to expect the market to go down. However, many charts still look great and as you can see from prior post there were some nice ones today. I take it as a signal market needs to pullback here and consolidate for a move higher. If the charts do breakdown that assumption will be ripped to shreds.

Get ready for earnings. I wonder if it will bring some higher volatility to the markets?

Aloha

Market Commentary Will Be Later

New Swing Longs: FPU NWY WHR LH APT

New Swing Shorts: CDWC VRSN GDT HHS C EYET

Swing Longs Perfoming Well Today: IPII GERN BDCO DSTI ANGO CPTV CWTR CIB OIIM AWA EMKR IDIX LMS BSMD

Swing Shorts Perfoming Well Today: BAC DGII

VIX Hits A 10 Year Low

Where did all the volatility go? I wonder if the VIX can break 10? Who cares, at 50 or 10 it is all good. Longs will either rise fast with volatile movements or they will go smoothly up-steady and strong. 1999 was fun and the money was quick and very rewarding. But slow markets are much nicer, if you ask me. The relaxing pace makes it easy to hold onto winners longer than I did back in those days. No matter what, having a cut loss and a method of taking profits is more important than "picking" or "selecting" great stocks to purchase long or short. Bottom line: I like the VIX at 10.33. That doesnt mean I think it is going to stay there much longer though. :)

Friday was a dull day for the markets, as volume contracted across the board. I am getting about the same amount of longs as short candidates in my scans so I am wondering if we are going to take a rest here. I really think we need to because some short term damage has been done to stock charts and for the pattern to look correct again a basing period needs to happen. If it goes straight back up the charts will havve a historically good chance of reversing their immediate upthrust this late in the bull cycle. These moves are called V-bottom moves. Gary B. Smith of Realmoney.com describes them really well in his commentary. Biotech, Insurance, Semis, Medical-Dentist, Genetics, Retail-Consumer Elec, Telecom Wireless Equipment, and Internet Content are the sectors seeing recent inflows as a sector rotation is occuring from the Oils, Metals, and HMO/Hospitals.

New Longs: MIDD CVD PTA NEOL ALXN ANDS WYE AOC AGO

Longs Making Strong Moves Today: HLTH BMRN CSU

New Shorts: ARLP HOTT HITK DGII RMBS SCHL BEZ IHP

Shorts Making Strong Moves Today: EMAG

I can not stress how important it is to short at the right moment very close to a previous resistance level, imediate break of support, or a moving average. This market is not a bear market, it is still a bull, the best shorts come after the market starts a downtrend. I know that is hard to believe. BUT IT IS TRUE!

Aloha

Small Caps Weak, SP 500 4-Yr. Highs, Negative Breadth, And Too Many Bulls

The SP hit new highs for the year. Yeah! right? Sort-of. Small Caps sold off today on a pickup in volume-Its 3rd distribution day past two weeks-but Semis and Bios led. Was that great for the market? No. When Big Caps start outperforming the smaller leaders, the markets are usually trying to put in a top. If it is short term or long term top, I do not know. I have a feeling it is probably short, though. The SP 600 is up 15.3% since the rally started April/May so a rest and/or pullback is definitely warranted at this point in time.

The rotation into Big Caps is evident in my scans, as they are the best looking charts at the moment. Most of the Small Cap stocks showing up in my scans are extended or just too wild in price action to be considered longs. As that happens there are few new buys and it is a great place to take some more profits. Not only that, since the market is looking toppy, with the recent frothy action, I have sold ALL laggards. Better to be early and book a small loss than be sorry and not have a stake to trade later on. The small oil plays on the other hand as Jim Cramer says "cmmonnn baackk." I am not ready to take profits in these guys yet. You know the ABLE GEOI DSTI etc. I have taken some off the table past two weeks. But the majority of my position is still long and strong.

One final parting blow. The AAII survey has only 14% bears! Short term top anyone? BTW, everyone can go back to May 4 and see that was the day I got long this market. I am still a bull but I am starting to see more signs that a short top is coming into play. With all my talk of how I am bullish longer term, I am building quite a larger short position than I thought I would have by tomorrow morning.

Account looks like this at the moment: 40% long, 25% short, 35% cash. Last week: 80-100% long, 0-5% short, and 0-20% cash. I wonder if this is telling me something more than I think it is???? I mean, the more I think about it, 14% bears!!! Everyone must know about this rally now, it seams like.

New Swing Longs: CRED ELTK ONXS ONNN

New Swing Longs On A Pullback: CRM

Longs That Did Great Today: STEM SPNC

New Swing Shorts: NXTP NVDA SNDA MAR HNP EMAG PRX GDP

Reversal of the Week: CCC (only lost 8%, but look at the reversal today)
Aloha!

Boring Day, Inside Day, and Some Smallcap Weakness

Really a pretty boring day overall for the markets as volume rolled in lower across the board. This suggest it's consolidation time, per my comments yesterday, for the indexes. The smallcaps and midcaps were weaker but nothing to get freightened about. I sold down some longs that showed some great gains on some charts that look a little parabolic for the short term. Doesnt mean I sold them all but I did pair them down by my usual 1/4 sells. Besides that, not much else to talk about. Unless you want to talk about Bernie Ebbers and WCOM. For me I have heard enough on CNBC to last me a lifetime.

New Swing Longs: TOA DXYN OPMR(own since January, but was not writing blog then) AWA ESLR ASML NTRS ADCT AWRE

Swing Longs That Did Great Today: ENG KNDL ILMN OPMR DRRX WEL DESC CCC DCEL STEM VASC

New Swing Shorts: HMA UHS LGF CRAI WCN. The whole medical sector took a hit today. If there are low volume rallies and subsequent high volume breakdowns in these stocks they will make great shorts: LSCP HCA HITK CYH ABT SRZ. But if this happens dont overstay your welcome. These stocks have GREAT GREAT GREAT fundamentals so they will not fall 50%. If they do crack, 10% would be the most I would look for in these. Dont be greedy!

Mixed Trading On Mixed Volume

Nasdaq lead the way today with the SP following. Volume on the SP was higher than day before, switching roles with the Nasdaq in recent days. The Smallcap and Midcaps have hit new highs and continue to produce the best stocks out there in this rally.

The market took a little breather going into the close but did not sufer a lot of damage. Two stocks I was long showed some classic reversal signs; one starts with BO the other IP. And other stocks today had some short term parabolic moves so I had to take some money off the table today. These two scenarios along with the lack of quality breakout or high volume candidates helps me come to the conclusion a short term pullback is about to get started. I would always like to be wrong, when I see this happening. But at least I am ready, if it does.

New Swing Longs: NSS PPC TAYC MPWR MMSI ILMN SUG AVTR ACP

New Swing Longs If There Is A Pullback: CNVR IRIX

Longs That Looked Great Today: TALX ENG FSL CTRX ABP ENY BCON GEOI ABLE WEL DENN STEM RADS PRLS TGE BBSI

New Swing Shorts: WEN NCR SGR BNK AMWD

Aloha

Two and A Half Month Rally Continues

Volume increased on the Nasdaq and was mixed with the SP 500, 600, Russell, and the Dow. Market continues to act very healthy and there is still no reason to be bearish. But today was the second day I could not find more than 10 great charts for new longs. All of my good longs continue to act well but new longs the past two days, during this rally, have not been plentiful.

Read yesterday's market commentary for more depth on the above subject.

New Longs: IPII ELOS UNF ERS VAS MOT NSTK MIDD BBSI MBWM

New Long After Pullback: MCRL

Longs Still Looking Good: DSTI DCAI BOOM ANGO ENG JMDT HITK MSCC AMED RATE JMDT DCEL UPCS APCS CPTV GNSS RBAK PETS LMS MCF

New Shorts: CRYP WPTE PCLN

Aloha

9:42 HST---------Two more longs for swing trades: XWG WEL

Russell 2000, SP 600, SP 400 All-Time Highs

What a market!

The Russell, Midcap, Smallcap all made all-time highs and the Nasdaq on Friday gave a "Golden Cross" signal. What is a golden cross? It is when the 50 dma moves above the 200 dma on an increase in volume. That is as bullish a signal on an index as you can get, besides after a long downtrend being up 5% on a huge increase in volume (Oct. 2002).

Bottom line is this market is STILL STILL STILL very healthy. I have not fought the advance so why are you? All day Friday--besides some good traders I know--I heard how this is going to fail when the momentum to the upside stops. You know what kind of people say that? The people who were shorting the indexes off the London terrorism and the people who were not long enough going into this 1-2% rally in the indexes. To them I say your arguments are pure malarchy. Even my favorite commentator on Realmoney is currently bearish-James DePorre. Well, terrorism doesnt scare me anymore, as it is a fact of life till we can eradicate these murderers. Just like the bears dont scare me when I have a lot of bullish charts on my scan. I say bring on the bears, cause there is too many half-ass bulls out there. If we could convert more bulls to bears as this uptrend moves along, that would be great. If we dont, be ready to cut your losses.

The indexes all rallied from 1 to 2% (Russell2k up 1.98%) across the board, with some of the indexes breaking short-term resistance. Some other key technical signs I have noticed is that the SOX (Philly Semi Index) 5 week modified moving average has crossed the 200 week simple moving average (first time since crossing down in 2001). The last time the SOX did that was in 1998 and it led to huge winners in the semiconductor field. As I have tons of Semiconductor stocks with nice charts that have already offered me some nice gains, I feel history is what??? Repeating itself.

The caveat with all of this though is that it does seem to me there was not enough panic last week. I know the put/call got over 1.0 on Thursday morning, indicating short-term capitulation, but still there was not enough fear to wash out the weak hands in-my-opinion. But what do I tell people about opinions in the market? I tell them, who cares? The market sure as heck does not. Until the market sells off 2% with a big spike in volume, I will remain bullish.

Indexes:
Long term (Oct 2002): Uptrend
Intermediate term (Aug 2004): Uptrend
Sub-Intermediate term (Jan 2005): Down to Latteral
Short term (Past month): Uptrend (sp600, mid400, russell, nasdaq), Latteral (sp500, dow)

New Longs: ANGO PRWT FICC CEM NUS SYGR RADN

Longs Still Looking Good: ENG CHCI NGPS SCVL IBN ASR RTSX RATE JMDT LMS AIX GIGM PANL SIRI RBAK INTU

New Shorts: MHS

Aloha!

YOU GOTTA LOVE THIS MARKET

Resilient. This market took the terrorist attacks in London very poorly in premarket hours and as more info came in began to bottom; off to the races, we were, for the rest of the session.

Volume rose across the board and the tails in the Dow, SP 600, SP500 charts show how beautiful the reversals were. The Nasdaq was the super strong index today. Last night before I took my quick nap, NQs were down 41. Just awesome, the come back.

Market Indexes: Long term (Oct 2002) uptrend, Intermediate term (Aug 2004) uptrend, sub-intermediate term (January 2005) downtrend, and Short term (last month) latteral.

That is what is happening in the market, currently. Predicting the future is impossible, so I dont know what is going to happen next. But the market held up really well today in light of terrorist attacks and there are still good charts out there. Plus I went through my short scan and can not find any new shorts to add to the ones already put on. Still volume was much lighter than I expected, so there was not a real sense of fear in the air. Some negatives, some positives, some sideways action.

New Longs: CHCI GR ENY AEZ CCC MFLX INTU ININ

Longs Still Looking Good: ASEI COGT IBN ICON DCEL RBAK THQI ABP BSMD

New Shorts: Oddly none!

Aloha

Terrorism In London

Dont panic at open. Do not take new longs or shorts at open.

A Negative Reversal/ Divergences In Indexes

The nasdaq barely gave back 1/2 of its gains from yesterday, however, the Dow gave back all its gains and then some to break through support. Volume rose across the board, marking small distribution days. This marked the third distribution day for the Nasdaq in the past 4 weeks, and second for the SP 600 since June 7

It is normal in uptrending markets to see distribution days. It is what happens afterwards that is important. No matter what happens, have a game plan to cut losses and only buy the best stocks in strong sectors.

There was some crazy action today as the indexes made intraday lows, then intraday highs, and then reversing again to land near the lows. This action normally is a precursor to a move down, after an uptrend.

I sold down some longs today that showed big profits past couple of days and have been cutting some longs that reversed today. I was able to raise my cash level and am looking for some weakness in the very short term.

Earnings season is coming up and a lot of charts with those big uptrends might have already priced in good earnings. So if a company doesnt beat its numbers, I am sure it will get punished.

New Swing Longs: EPAY RBAK GERN EML

Stocks Looking Good Still: ENG ABP TRGL

New Swing Shorts: BC PDCO ZOLL ADEX HMC DLP IHP RI BWLD

Remember when shorting, to short as close to the moving averages or support levels as possible and never let a short go against you more than 5%. I set alerts on my IB platform to alert me to the best risk/reward level.

Aloha

SP Smallcap 600 New Yearly High

All indexes rose across the board, on an increase in volume. That is not saying too much, considering the holiday weekend. But across the board excellent action in the indexes, including a new yearly high for the SP Smallcaps. I wonder where the action has been?

I have been away from computer most of the day so have to keep it short. Bottom line, this market looks alright. Especially that SP Small Cap 600.

New Swing Longs: SPN ATMI MTCT HOS EEEE PRAI ECR LMNX SBTV NOVA RPI

New Swing Shorts: LXK NXTP CSGS(short at 17.50--too extended currently)

Aloha

Happy Fourth Of July

Today is a day for celebration!

Go hang out with family or friends!

New Swing Longs: EAC THE BTJ MCF CRED GIGM CNET

New Swing Shorts: APD

Aloha!