Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Four Year Highs For Nasdaq and SP 500

Well, they did sell the earnings but what followed was something I was not expecting at all. Stocks had a reversal around mid-day after Greenspan's speach leading the indexes to close near the HOD and volume surged across the board. Nasdaq volume was up almost 20% higher than the day before. That is the kind of action you like to see during uptrending markets. The Semiconductor and Biotech stocks definitely were the outperforming groups today with many stocks up a lot. AMGN, GENZ, CELG will show you the strength in the Biotech group.

GOOG reports earnings tomorrow--lets see how that goes.

Even though I have been feeling bearish recently doesnt mean my portfolio isnt still dominated by longs killing the market averages. I remain long as long as the trend is up, however I do not like how everyone I know is bullish and expects higher prices going into the end of the year. A healthy pullback or long term sideways movement would help work off the "uber-bulls" overly optimistic sentiment. Another sign is this: I went bullish in APRIL/MAY after being bearish the entire year. Most people during the Apr/May bottom said I was wrong and the market would soon head down again. WRONG!! Now those same people who were bearish during the bottom and this entire move up are now turning into bulls (not all, but enough). This market is a momentum train that is very dangerous to fight against, so going long is the only prudent method right now, still.

I still think we are near a short-term top and think the speculative nature of stocks with earnings reports widely spoken about helps reafirm my feelings. We will see soon if the market will continue to move higher-which it does when rates rise-or wants a pullback to work off some of this bullish sentiment. I mean look at the number of stocks making 52 week highs compared to last week. That is a negative divergence.

Good Luck!

New Swing Longs: JUPM PLAB LRCX SMA RIO EOC ORBK VSEA DTAS IMDC SMSC CPSI GTF ACAD

Swing Longs Outperforming Today: STJ NGPS VTAL FOXH DCEL IDIX EMKR ASTSF BMRN HHGP ASML ICON CKCM GMXR

Aloha

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