What a market!
The Russell, Midcap, Smallcap all made all-time highs and the Nasdaq on Friday gave a "Golden Cross" signal. What is a golden cross? It is when the 50 dma moves above the 200 dma on an increase in volume. That is as bullish a signal on an index as you can get, besides after a long downtrend being up 5% on a huge increase in volume (Oct. 2002).
Bottom line is this market is STILL STILL STILL very healthy. I have not fought the advance so why are you? All day Friday--besides some good traders I know--I heard how this is going to fail when the momentum to the upside stops. You know what kind of people say that? The people who were shorting the indexes off the London terrorism and the people who were not long enough going into this 1-2% rally in the indexes. To them I say your arguments are pure malarchy. Even my favorite commentator on Realmoney is currently bearish-James DePorre. Well, terrorism doesnt scare me anymore, as it is a fact of life till we can eradicate these murderers. Just like the bears dont scare me when I have a lot of bullish charts on my scan. I say bring on the bears, cause there is too many half-ass bulls out there. If we could convert more bulls to bears as this uptrend moves along, that would be great. If we dont, be ready to cut your losses.
The indexes all rallied from 1 to 2% (Russell2k up 1.98%) across the board, with some of the indexes breaking short-term resistance. Some other key technical signs I have noticed is that the SOX (Philly Semi Index) 5 week modified moving average has crossed the 200 week simple moving average (first time since crossing down in 2001). The last time the SOX did that was in 1998 and it led to huge winners in the semiconductor field. As I have tons of Semiconductor stocks with nice charts that have already offered me some nice gains, I feel history is what??? Repeating itself.
The caveat with all of this though is that it does seem to me there was not enough panic last week. I know the put/call got over 1.0 on Thursday morning, indicating short-term capitulation, but still there was not enough fear to wash out the weak hands in-my-opinion. But what do I tell people about opinions in the market? I tell them, who cares? The market sure as heck does not. Until the market sells off 2% with a big spike in volume, I will remain bullish.
Indexes:
Long term (Oct 2002): Uptrend
Intermediate term (Aug 2004): Uptrend
Sub-Intermediate term (Jan 2005): Down to Latteral
Short term (Past month): Uptrend (sp600, mid400, russell, nasdaq), Latteral (sp500, dow)
New Longs: ANGO PRWT FICC CEM NUS SYGR RADN
Longs Still Looking Good: ENG CHCI NGPS SCVL IBN ASR RTSX RATE JMDT LMS AIX GIGM PANL SIRI RBAK INTU
New Shorts: MHS
Aloha!
5 comments:
what is your opinion on MSGI
josh
Can you tell us what settings you use for finding stocks for longs. I just got the software you use and interested how your stuff is setup.
Thanks
Vince,
Go to 'Daily Worden Reports' menu and read the master's great letter to Don published on June 3rd.
ADEX:
No. You do not nibble more. Unless, you want to try that strategy. I see this as first signs something is wrong. Until ADEX works off that time and resistance I move on to better stocks with better upside potential and less resistance.
Remember: You buy on fundamentals and charts. You speculate on charts. You sell on charts. All longs that you want to hold for a long time need to have fundamentals line up with charts. But the sell signals always show up on the tape/chart before it does the income statement and balance sheet.
Aloha
I wouldnt touch MSGI till it trades above the 50dma and makes a move on some volume. Until then it is dead/boring money. Your time is better spent finding the stocks moving now.
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