Saturday, February 28, 2009

Obama's Budget Proposal Frieghtens the Market Squashing Early Morning Stock Gains

by Market Speculator

"A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned - this is the sum of good government." - Thomas Jefferson

Looking across the blogosphere and media outlets one might have expected a relief rally. Logic and indicators pointed to an oversold market. Thursday's action began positive, traders were getting behind the idea of we could rally. Obama's budget proposal was set to be released during the morning hours of the market. During the 2008 Presidential Campaign Obama pledged to reduce the operating budget deficit; traders were expecting to see Obama to adhere to his campaign promise. However, upon the release of the budget the market began to sell off. There were no improvements to the budget deficit, but it was ballooned to a tune of $1.75 TRILLION dollars. In addition to the budget deficit the proposal ATTACKS healthcare providers effectively squashing future profit potential. The market is not to be argued with, it is foreshadowing troubled times its best we pay attention.

In Tuesday's market wrap I mentioned the Equity Put/Call ratio and how it was signalling complacency. It continues, the equity put/call remains near lows as the market remains near its lows. Alongside the put/call ratio the VIX index is showing how the selling is not sparking any FEAR in the market. Even short term bottoms will have these indicators showing SOME level of fear. Not this time, sellers are complacent and it shows there is high level of hope that this market rallies in the near term. If we are able to lift off the lows it will be a weak move.

The biggest thing YOU can do is to make sure you paying down your debt and keeping cash on hand to pay for groceries. As for this market, we are finding ways to make money. Whether it be long or short we are still making gains.

Gold and silver are pulling back and consolidating from an impressive move higher. Fears regarding the world's economy and the confidence the world has in its available currencies has gold/silver bulls out. History has shown when confidence is lost in a fiat currency gold and silver are sought after as a safe haven. Once confidence is lost a mass exudos occurs from the paper currency to precious metals. So far, it appears we are headed down the path of a dollar crisis.

GDP numbers for the fourth quarter are set to be released this morning. It'll be focal point for the market as it opens. I'm afraid, regardless of the annualized figure it will not cure what ailes this economy. Cutting spending and taxes is the step in the right direction.

Enjoy the remainder of the work week and have an enjoyable weekend.


Top longs/(shorts) with TOTAL returns making me money TODAY: ANCI 59% (TITN 56% GTIV 19% CPRT 23% GGB 64% CEO 31% OKE 48% APD 49% ARB 73% WRB 15% K 22% LLL 25% RDK 33% PG 23% RIMM 60% MCY 32% AMSG 37% PLCE 33% SPG 60% IPHS 51% CYT 70% SDA 80% PRGO 31% FSYS 17% CASY 30% CEDC 86% AAPL 44% AMX 53% CETV 93%)


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