My Weekend Thought: I don't have enough money to take all these LONGS!!!

All I have to say, this weekend, after looking at the charts in my personal scans after the past week is...we went down????

You could have fooled me.

Even though the indexes moved down to sideways for the week, it was a great week for individual stocks in my portfolio. I am finding it impossible to keep up with all the great stocks popping up on my scans. Therefore, I am leaving money on the table by not having enough to participate in this wonderful rally that started Arpil/May.

I recently cut my long exposure but after this weekend it look like I will be 200% long again. There are just too many individual stocks making large moves. DSTI ABLE GEOI are perfect recent examples.

Once again, there are tons of longs to choose from, after Friday's bell.

NEW swing longs: RCRC DO RRC NGS PETS SCUR DESC

Already taken swing longs setting up again: USLM JDO OMR BLUD BCON PLUM SKS ARMHY

LWAY is also a great stock that broke out on huge trade Friday. It definitely needs to pullback to around 13.50 to make a safe long.

Aloha, Have a great weekend, and I will be back on Monday!

Long Swing Trades

USLM KEP BDCO DESC ILMN ENTU NSM LBTYA LSI TRGL ARMHY WEN PLUM DSTI

Extended and need a pullback for safe entry: ILMN ENTU DSTI

Have a great night

Aloha

Despite pullback, Bulls still look in control

The indexes rallied today with a pickup in volume (although slightly). My market thesis, as long as Greenspan doesnt raise rates three to four more times, remains the 1994 to 1995 market scenario. If Greenspan does something that stupid, who knows, maybe 66-82 markets. Whatever. Just play the trend.

Did you see the trend today on DSTI BDCO GEOI MXC ABLE. Today was one of my best days since a day in April 2000 (I've had three days like this, the past month or so). The stocks were up 60, 30, 17, 21, and 7 percent. DSTI has been written about in my blog on April 21 and 27. On the 27th or soon after, I commented on how it was the prettiest and most properly constructed out of all my longs. Today, I sold 1/4 of DSTI, MXC. GEOI and BDCO, I still have all of original positions due to super strong and pretty chart patterns. ABLE took a quarter off table a while ago, but still have rest.

And it is not like that is all. I am long a lot of stocks, still, that have beautiful uptrends.

The market is acting very healthy, still, and there are just too many nice charts to not play this uptrend. We are either topping (doubt it) or have much further to go.

I just hope Greenspan stops with another rate hike or two.

I will be back later with more longs cause God knows I am getting a lot of candidates in my scans.

Aloha.

Trimming some longs and 1966-1982 History

I have been cutting some long exposure the past two days, but at the same time buying some stocks too. Even though I think the market has further to run, a pullback is needed as I have been saying for a week or so.

I read an interesting article in IBD today about this market maybe being like the 1966-1982 market. If that is the case the article showed all the leading stocks and how they performed during all the uptrend bull rallies along the 16 year consolidation.

The point I think it makes is no matter what you think of the market, just play the trend and make money.

Some of the winners were:
66-68--Digital Equip. (351%), Milton Bradley (369%)
71-73--McDonalds (438%), Winnebego (377%)
75-77--Waste Manag. (900%), Houston Oil (980%)
80-81--WMT (966%), Southwest Air (269%)

I love history!!

More "buying" time needed during consolidation

For such a "weak" market, the longs that I have in my portfolio are acting really well. Why do I say weak? Because in all the chatrooms that I monitor everyone thinks this market has topped and is ready to make new lows SOON.

Well, I doubt that. To get my opinions please read yesterdays post.

I have a headache from a surfing injury (10 stiches) so sorry for the late post.

New longs for swing: VIVO--pullback, COHR--again, BFAM--cut loss w/ 50dma break, MXC--poke this crazy stock, SSNC--again, nice b/o, ADVNB--3 day breakout, FOXH--again, 34.25 cut loss, WFR--pullback, ENTU--again, VRTX--cut loss 12.75

Aloha

Pullback welcomed

Today's intraday reversal was nasty, without a doubt. The bulls (me) have been getting a little too excited and a pullback like todays was a wake up call to be more cautious. I was looking for dip buyers to come in the last hour. That did not happen.

Today's reversal on heavier volume is nasty but is it enough to sell all long positions. Absolutely not. I still have most of my longs acting really well but did raise more cash today on some of my laggards. One reversal day does not make this a top. We will have to see if there are more down days on an increase in volume in the indexes and stocks start breaking key supports, before I get bearish. Remember, I like to follow the trend, no matter how scary one day can be. Which, btw, did not scare me too much today.

I saw a lot more bears start calling the top today which signals to me this rally still has some legs to go probably. People are still very bearish after the whole move up since April/May bottom, in the chatrooms I montior.

While they will continue their bearish stance, I will continue to make money on the long side as they are still presenting the best charts to play.

As weak as today seemed, oddly enough, one of the strongest sectors showing up in my scan of great charts today is ELECTRONICS. I would have figured with the nasdaq down today, they would not have performed well. But they did along with MEDICAL.

New Long Position Swings: RCKY COHR RVSN SGMS API ARMHY MXO SSNC CAND

Aloha

Besides the LONGS KILLING IT, nothing new at all

GFIG TGE BDCO made my Monday, LOL.

Nothing new about today's market. It looked like consolidation, especially with the lower volume. If you want to know how I see the market, read the past 5 or so entries. That should keep you up to date.

Surprise surprise...longs continue to work

Longs: TGE SRDX ELOS CENT CLFC HTRN NCTY BDCO NGPS AMRI CTRP PACT ERS LMS SYKE

If you are a regular reader of this blog you will know that I have mentioned many of these recently as longs. Which shows that the longs continue to breakout and then base before breaking out again. What a nice uptrend we have.

Aloha

Weekend Thoughts

Was Friday the start of something scary for the bulls? Was it just a pullback? Are we going higher?

Well, I, honestly, don't know. What I do know is that volume contracted, on all the indexes, from yesterday. So we can not say that institutions were heavy net sellers on Friday. Plus there are still too many charts that either hold up above key support areas or keep breaking out. With all the good chart patterns and how quickly the bears have come back out after ONE DAY, I still remain bullish on stocks. I follow trends and the trend is up. Now if within the next two weeks we keep selling off 1%+ and volume starts to pick up on the downside and we rally on lower volume then I will be bearish. But until that happens I still remain very bullish, tho not too bullish. I was 200% invested a week ago. That is down to about 120% now. And after finding more charts tonight and knowing there will be more next week, I am ready to go back on full margin if the markets continue this uptrend.

If there is one thing about me you will NEVER see. It is me going against an intermediate trend within the long term and short term time frames.

Once again my longs continue to act well, even after Friday's mild declines on lower volume.

New Swing longs: GFIG NTES HLTH CENT PACT / FADV BBD TCI. GIFG and NTES are the fundamental kings in this list.

With the way ABLE and GEOI have been performing in my portfolio (both up 50%+ in a very short time frame), I thought it would be smart to take some new positions in more small oil stocks that are making high volume breakouts or bouncing off the 50 dma on heavy turnover. TGE GDP BCON BDCO.

I will see you on Monday
Aloha

Market feels like 1995.

I just want to make some comments on why this market keeps going up. It keeps going up going because everyone is looking for that pullback that is supposed to happen. Well like I said yesterday, since everyone is looking for it, we are probably not going to get it. So that sums up how I feel about this market currently.

Now I am seeing a lot of similarities between this market and the 1994/1995 markets:

During that time inflation was low, inflation is historically low currently.

Rates after being raised steadily a full year came to an end, rates currently according to a Fed official is "in the 8th inning."

During the rally pessimisim was high just like it is now.

Everyone was expecting pullbacks the whole way up in 1995. People are already talking about it now. lol

During the start of the rally in 1994 there was not a 2% move in any of the indexes until September of 1995. Currently I have heard of people saying, "they will not believe the rally until the market is up 2% on heavy voluem."

At the start of the 1994 move there was a lot of beautiful charts in retail and technology. This current rally has a lot of beautiful charts in retail, tech, airline, medical, and consumer stocks.

Earnings at companies were growing. Earnings are huge in some of Investors Business Daily's top stocks.

The indexes were up from 25% to 40% and a lot of people missed out on the 1995 bull market. And a lot still missed out on Jan to June 1996 bull market.

The trend is your friend, my friends.

Longs swing trades: JDO--again, needs to take a break, XXIA--again, needs a small consolidation also, OPWV--again, 16 a better buy, ITU--high volume breakout, BBD--extremely high volume bounce off of 50 dma, ASR--again, high volume bounce off of 50dma and building base on base pattern, NNI--again, nice place to add to, AMOV--again, tiny tiny float, killer fundamentals, excellent chart pattern, KNDL--nice breakout above flat base, LMS--another breakout to a new high, PETS--high volume 50dma bounce, CIB--high volume bounce off 50 dma, ARTC--breakout to new high, CY--heavy volume move above May resistance, CPTV, CMRG, CONN



Aloha

Long candidate possibilities

Here are some more stock that are showing excellent chart patterns and are at buy points or after a pullback will be at one.

New swing/position longs: DCEL INCX MDKI TEO ECIL SIRF TCI HTG

Longs in new buy positions that I have mentioned already: RADS PWAV CAND INNO TERN CNMD AWGI CONN RG

See you tomorrow,
Aloha

Indexes remain strong, starting to see decent pullbacks in individual charts

The indexes all had very decent days, considering the late afternoon decline that showed up. I have a lot of stocks pulling back finally, so we may be finally starting a pullback soon on the indexes. If we do not pullback that just tells me this market is so strong and this is what you see when everyone expects a pullback. The nature of everyone thinking it is time to rest makes the contrarian play of "markets keep making new highs" quite possible.

However, with taking small TINY profits today and cutting some laggards, I have still found some great individual charts out there.

I hope everyone had a great trading day.

Swing/position longs: DCAI--again, GEOI--again, still can buy a little here, lots of upside potential, HURC--breaking to new highs on strong volume, COH--breakout to new high on strong volume, DHC--again, breakout to new high although on low volume, ELOS--breakout on heavy volume to make new highs, fundamentals of this company is excellent, ADEX--extended after breakout, buy as close to pivot point as possible, if possible, KEYW--breakout to new 3 month high on strong volume.

Check back in the morning for more speculative plays.

Aloha

Long swing trades for May 31st continued...

Airlines and Restaurants have joined Retail, Tech, and Medical for industries with a lot of good chart patterns in individual names.

My longs that I initiated in the past month continue to look great and after taking only a small portion of my gains off the table today I continue to be heavily long and will put more money to work in the names I mentioned in earlier posting today and in some of the new names that I am not already long. Some awesome chart patterns reared their heads today in stocks I already am long and as you can see with the names today the market is going to give us more gains.

These patterns do not show up in weak "bull market" bounces. These are the chart patterns, in the strong sectors, that you see in real strong uptrend.

New Speculative Swings: TRGL AIR CAL TERN MHX TRY CHKR ECOL NMTI

Swing longs already have positions in: INNO AWGI BMD QUIK SPTN STTS

Swing longs already mentioned in blog as swings, with no positions: STEM BDCO CMRG CAND PWEI

Wanted to brag about three holdings also: ENG ABLE GEOI

Bottom line, it feels good to be on the right side of the market. Doesn't it?

Aloha

On surface it looks bad but after scanning my charts it looks Good!

The nasty close on the indexes gave me the impression that today was not as strong as it looked all day. Then after updating all my charts after the bell I noticed something. The individual stocks in my scan look great. So I would not read too much into a day like this except to say that this was a pullback in the uptrend. How long it last and will go I do not know but I would like to talk about something.

In 1994, The fed hiked rates for a full year. At the end of the cycle the market (SP500) was already drifting up and then went on to rally from 490 to 650 the next year. That market is very similar to this one. This market has dealt with almost a full year of rate hikes, has drifted upward, and is showing signs, with the individual charts, that this market is ready to break lose. If the market is anticipating the Fed is almost done like it did in 1994, I think we could see a nice 20% or so rally.

With todays bad close there should not be this many nice charts with great buying positions yet there are!

Long swing/position trades: GOL DCAI JMDT GEOI ASFI RYAAY BER
On a pullback: JDO -- mentioned this weekend in my last blog entry. A nice pullback to around today's open in the next 5 days would make a great long.

Aloha

Memorial Day Weekend; Thank You, Soldiers!

Just wanted to check in this Memorial Day weekend and wish everyone well.

The markets did nothing exciting Friday, yet I found a bunch of nice charts just primed for higher prices. The only thing is a lot of the stocks seem speculative so keeping tight cut losses (as always) and using a smaller portion of capital is waranted with stocks under $10.

Long positions to swing: ESL--needs a pullback, SNDA, RAVN, STST, DHC, ASR, LAN, BDCO, GEOI, JDO, MLP, CMGI, BMD, CCI, CNQ, CFK, CONN, and PWEI.

I wanted to toot my horn and congratulate all who profited with me on the ABLE and GEOI stock. ABLE up 40%, since mention six days ago. GEOI up 16%, since mention three days ago.

I toot my own horn for the simple reason to show investors who dont believe in this rally that it doesnt matter what you think is going to happen in the market. The market has decided the bears are wrong and that is that. So if you have not been long equities because prices are too expensive, the economy is in trouble, the war in Iraq, or any other bearish reason you have missed a lot of great opportunites to make money. Why not cut losses, ride the trend up, and then wait for the charts to agree with your bearish "opinions." That way you can profit from both sides of the market, no matter what you think!

THANK YOU SOLDIERS
GOD BLESS AMERICA

Aloha from Maui :)

What were we thinking? Stop momentum? Yeah right.

We just keep on chugging along. As I have said, over and over, momentum once it starts going is hard to stop. Today yet another boatload of high quality, fundamentally sound stocks broke out or bounced off moving averages on good volume.

Trading was slow today but volume rose indicating funds are still buying right here and they dont see stocks as "gone too far too fast" yet.

Trading is sure to be lame tomorrow with Memorial Day weekend coming up. I will be around but doubt it.

None-the-less there are tons of charts to still play and stocks like CWTR (up 11%) are plentiful. What an incredible month it has been for my portfolio!!

Long swing trades: WIND VRSN XXIA LSCP BBBB LABS PTRY FSL ORCT EMKR OMR DHC GLW ENTU FMX CSGS QUIK (again) VASC (again) MCX CSU

Aloha and have a great evening.

Finally a rest. It's about time...

Finally, the markets took a decent rest. The pullback came on lighter volume than yesterday. That is what you see in strong markets, after going up you pullback on low volume. Everything still looks good. I have great charts popping up today, even with the pullback, so the market still looks strong longer term. However, this pullback, is well welcomed to set up new positions.

I do have a caveat, however. I have been bullish on this market since May 4 and a couple days ago got cautious. I still remain cautious but with all the great charts out there (something you dont see in ALL rallies) I am leaning long still.

What don't I like about this market? The fact that since the April/May lows only one index has had a rally over 2% (SP600, May 18, 2.12%) is a bit disheartening. In good solid bottoms like March 2003, you usually get a couple of big moves over 2% on heavy volume somewhere along the early stages of a strong rally, in the indexes. We have not seen that and I think we should have seen that by now. However, we are in a low volume environment where 2% moves could now be hard to come by.

I hope everybody had a great day.

Long swing/position trades: PVH CTRP BSTE GLW VASC CWTR CAND GEOI

Longs alreay mentioned w/ another buy possibility: QUIK RATE STEM ASTM PRLS IVX DADE ABLE TAGS

Aloha and where is the surf??????

Will it Ever End

When momentum gets moving it is hard to stop, think of a train going down the railroad tracks. When this many bears are still around after the run up we have had, it is safe to assume there is more upside ahead.

When will it end? Well I have thought now for a couple of days we needed to pullback on all the indexes. Instead we moved higher again and now more people think we definitely need to pullback. Do you know what that means? We probably will not pullback.

You have to be prepared for the opposite of what you here from everybody and since cautious longs are not fully invested and shorts are covering and cant find a good entry point there is a lot of nervousness out there to what happens next. So what happens now in the process is a guess. But a rest is needed.

With all the good charts out there still, I am bullish longer term. However, a pullback is needed but I will say once again there is too many folks looking for a pullback so overbought markets can become more overbought.

I am still finding TONS of charts that are breaking out of good bases. This is how it looks in BULL markets. Not only that, all my longs that I have taken past three weeks continue to look great. What more can I ask for, for now?

Swing Long Positions: RATE WEBX TALK AIRT PARL TAGS TPE PRLS IVX TIVO

How about that ENG today. Gave the heads up on it twice 5/10 and yesterday. Up 26% today. Also, WGAT is waking up again. That was first mentioned on April 8th.

Aloha

Market Momentum Continues

Longs are taunting bears, INTC been up 16 of 17 days, Nasdaq BOP (balance of power on tc2k5) is green for two days in a row always a negative for this index, perma bears that have missed this move are now buying, and, after all those reversals in the indexes closing at the high of the days, the markets closed very weak in the last hour today.

What does this mean. I don't know. But I will guess that it is time to take a breather. We are up very nicely since the April/May lows and stocks look overheated, so a breather would be welcomed here. But, then again, overbought markets can become more overbought as momentum is a crazy beast. A market this strong will have a lot of buyers ready to put cash to work at good entry points.

Swing Longs: RADS ANTP FMX RGCI SNS

Swing Longs I have already mentioned giving another buy point: CLHB KYPH NRPH RIMG ENG

Aloha

Long swing trades

I am going to take positions in ABLE RAVN KYPH in the morning. The rest of the longs I either have already or will watch. DCTH might also make a nice speculative long as the base is almost complete.

NGPS -- needs a pullback to pivot of recent base
RRGB
LKQX
RAVN
SIRI
CMGI
ABLE -- needs a pullback for a larger position. A small one is ok for a speculative play
DDDC
DCTH
KYPH

I have had too much fun this weekend. I hope everyone else had a great time too. Time to get back to work.

Aloha

Market continues to act healthy

The market continues to act well showing gains on heavy volume, pullbacks on light, that are then bought for positive reversals. This is what happens in a healthy market. The whole year we have not seen action like this in the individual charts and usually after going up some on the indexes we would see distribution days shortly after. That is not happening this time. You know why? Bulls are back in control due to the heavy bearish sentiment out there.

A point I would like to hit on today is the fact that so many people are saying "just wait till the market collapses and then you will see the scam the market is." What??? The problem with that view is not that I disagree with it but the timing is just aweful. Maybe consumers are loaded with debt and cant spen, economy is going to slow down, rates are going to rise, or inflation is going to get us. But it is not happening NOW or will it happen next week.

If you would have played the trend and looked at all the bullish charts out there, you could have made some good money. Instead I hear everyone complaining how they lost money the past two weeks. I recommend reading my blog. :)

Go through the past two weeks and write down the symbols and dates and look and see how much they are up now. It doesnt matter what you think of the market, what matters is performance. I have written in this blog over 20 stocks that have moved up over 15% since May 4. AND IT IS FREE!!!!!

I will update with some more swing longs this weekend. I surfed all day and enjoyed the waves so I want to rest before scanning for new plays.

Aloha

More longs for tomorrow.

I expect a pullback, tomorrow, dont forget. But there are still a TON of beautiful charts out there. If you look at the longs I have listed last two weeks you will see a LOT of them up over 15% since mention. This is what happens in a bull market. Strong breakouts produce WELL ABOVE average gains than all the old beaten down stocks of the previous bull market.

Here are some more leading stocks (I have mentioned some before :) for swing-long trades:
COI WMS HTRN QUIK BMD STEM ASTM CKR FCN STTS FOXH CBG VASC CGT

What a great rally we have had!! Hope you profited on it too.

Aloha

Rally continues but we need a pullback

Surf is large today in town, so the commentary is going to be short today.

What can I say, since the market gave us a confirmation day on May 4 we have gone straight up on the back of a wall of worry. The wall of worry is now starting to get worried that they are going to miss the upside move. Hello! You just did and now we need a pullback. Will we get it? I don't know. We might keep on climbing higher and higher on this negativity. But I am starting to see signs that individual charts need to take a breather.


I will be back later on after a surf session to look at some more individual longs.

Aloha.

Long swing trades for Thursday

Sorry for such a late post. The surf came up and kept me away.

Longs swing trades: CKCM PNRA TTN MSCC AMOV DIOD TAYC STX CLHB ENR TZIX TXCC WFR TARR SBAC AMX LTM VRSN EEFT WLSN TLWT PWAV DMC IMA

I have mentioned over half of these before. They continue to base, breakout, base, then breakout. That is how you want a stock to act.

Technology, medical, and retail are leaders in this rally and that is where my money is.

Aloha

Gosh I love blogs. I forgot something very important.

I forgot to mention, I expect a pullback here, because we have gone gone up a little too fast since May 4. Not a big dip just enough to get the bears growling again. The Nasdaq and SP600 are up over 5% since then and some of the move may appear obivous to the "dumb" money now.

Index continues advance in heavy trade.

The indexes were all up over 1% today, with the sp600 leading with a 2.12% gain, with a huge increase in volume. The big surge in volume is the confirmation the uptrend is valid. There is now no doubt that the rally we have been seeing is for real. The huge pickup in volume is the institutions putting more money to work on the long side, shorts covering positions, and institutions initiating new long positions. The old maxim "sell in May and go away" is probably going to be a contrarian this year. The follow thru in the Nasdaq on May 4 is now solidly proven with today's huge advance on stronger volume that was over the 50 day volume average.

In the chat rooms I monitor, I am getting selectively attacked by trapped bears. They continue to be bearish and think a top is now forming, even though a lot of sentiment indicators are at the same level they were in March 2003. This tells me this rally will have legs.

But I dont need chatters to tell me what the market is going to do that is why charts exist. And I am loaded to the gills with longs in medical, tech, and retail that are acting well and continue to offer me new buys.

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF. Dont fight the trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are in an uptrend and that is the right side of the market to be on, no matter how much you want a crash.

I will be back later with long picks. But if you just take the time to read my past 5 days of post you will find plenty of options to invest/trade there.

I want to thank everyone who reads this blog. I really appreciate your feedback even when it is negative.

Mahalo and Aloha

will be back later with stocks....

More stock charts I like

Here are some more charts that have great patterns: ELTK GNSS VRSN SO PWAV HCC WTW HXL JWN FD RGCI TRID SWY SFY

So if any traders out there tell you there is not anything to trade. Laugh at them.

Aloha

Keep on keepin on

The indexes continue their short term uptrend that they have been in since beg. of May and volume did pick up today. The bad news on the volume pick up is that it is still well below the 50 dva. So big funds still are not ready to jump into the market. However, charts are a plenty with good patterns. And while everyone complains and continues to be bearish, the Nasdaq is up almost 7% this month. Where have you been?

While the markets continue their short term uptrend, I continue to find nice charts that are breaking out or building excellent bases. How can I and about only 15 traders out of 2000 I monitor see this? It is amazing. If the bearishness was higher in the professional newsletter writers I would be slamming the table calling a bottom. However the pros are still bullish while the "herd" are very bearish. Do you know what that tells me on a ratio basis? That we have an upside bias that goes sideways for a while. Let's see if that is what we get.

Long swing trades: JMDT ASTM MCZ APH CNB STX LTBG TTN CPTV ELOS
Long swing trades I have mentioned before: CCRT LCAV WFMI HTCH LABS MUSE IDIX STTS

Remember you want to buy these as close to pivot point as possible (preferably within 5%, unless a gap then 10% is MAX allowed) for safety.

There are also tech stocks that I like the patterns on but are not ready yet : BRCM RATE THQI RGCI ARRS(missed this one on 4/28 cause mrkt. was weak.) VSEC

Aloha

Great move in the indexes on suspicious low volume.

The markets had a great move today but the volume was very low. That tells me that the big boys had very little to do with this move up. I would have like to see a move like today come on a nice pickup in trade. But that did not happen so we have to see if the big boys want to jump on this short term uptrend in the indexes. If they do that will be great, but if we get some decent down days on a pickup in volume I will get more cautious.

So instead I still remain bullish like I have been since 5/4/05 and continue to see strength in the Nasdaq. This weekend I gave a list of stocks that look like they are creating bases in the sector. Please, go back and read my weekend thoughts and check out my long list the past week. You can not argue with facts and facts say techs are going higher.

There is still a lot of bearishness out there with the "dumb" money (and sometimes it is beyond dumb) but after reading Helene Meisler's recent publication on www.realmoney.com I know that the Investment professional community is still bullish overall. So we will see how this rally unfolds.

Swing-long trades: COI TUG ABCO SPSS LIFC UNWR PACT
Swing-long trades I have mentioned before: MUSE NNI EEFT
Swing-long trades that need a pull back on low volume: VPHM

Aloha.

Weekend thoughts.....

I know I have been talking a lot about a rotation into tech, and have been sounding off pretty confident that the Nasdaq is going to outperform the Dow and SP. But I have more reasons to support my analysis.

I have looked at some scans and have noticed a lot of tech stocks building bases that show proper volume characteristics on up and down days. The stocks I mentioned on Thurs and Friday are not mentioned (so include those with these) in this list.

NTAP HTCH ISIL MRVL NTGR VSEA ATMI TTN TXN SEBL

I can not argue with the great price/volume action I am seeing in these stocks, but I do respect the fact that all indexes are trading below their 50 dmas so I remain cautious until a move of 1.7% comes on heavier volume than the day before and above the 50 dva on the indexes.

The markets are all in short term uptrends, intermediate term downtrends, and long term (2002 bottom) uptrends. The Nasdaq is in much better shape than the Dow and SP, and my gut and charts tell me that the negativity in the crowd on techs could prove to be very bullish.

But if the Nasdaq all of a sudden falls 2% on heavy trade and all my beautiful tech charts get busted, I will turn bearish on tech, of course.

I, btw, have not been bullish on the technology sector since 1999 and the early days of 2000 with all the bubble internet/software stocks. It has mostly been select sectors and small caps.

Which brings me to my next point. I am seeing a lot less high quality small cap stocks show up on my scans. I wonder if the steam has run out of this engine for now?

Be back on Monday. Unless I think of something else to talk about.

Fun week.

I still feel the same way I have all week. I believe the indexes are currently weak and that when this downward pressure is over tech will lead. Look at the Relative Strength line today on the Nasdaq compared to the SP. I also like how everytime we start to fall everyone calls a bear market, then next thing you know the dip is being bought. That has been the pattern for the past two weeks.

I do not have much else to add except all those nice charts I have been talking about in technology are just getting prettier and prettier. The longs in tech land have been killing the market. When the markets legs get moving, we are going to see an outperformance this time.

I continue to get plenty of beautiful charts on my swing-long scans. The ones that came up today are almost all tech. I can not argue with that. You can hate tech all you want but when they are moving up...YOU ARE WRONG. Not me.

NVDA DIOD PRGS TEAM MSCC STMP LMS SY EMC IDTI STTS RTSX and the one non-tech stock UHAL.

Argue all you want, my prettiest charts are all medical and tech.

Also my PRETTIEST chart that I first mentioned when I started creating this blog on April 1, 2005 (Go back and read what I posted) is now up almost 50% since my purchase on 3/24 at 3.00. Guess what kind of stock it is? A speculative technology stock SILCF. Its BalanceOfPower indicator has stayed max green the entire time since its breakout on the 23rd of March, everytime is has a good day up it comes on heavy volume, and down days happen with no volume. This is the way you want to see a stock act after a breakout. This is a speculative stock but I have to bring up the point how well these tech stocks have been acting the past two weeks to two months.
Of course if you buy the wrong stocks with poor chart patterns, you get what you deserve.

Aloha and have a great weekend.

The moving averages work again as resistance.

The market fell (not crashed/swooned/whatever) today on heavier turnover. Barely higher, however, as it was just a few mill shares.

Nothing changes in my assumptions. The market has proven resistance at the moving averages that I mentioned a couple days ago yet however as we hold the lows the bears grow. This helps keep me bullish short term.

I monitor a lot of chat rooms and KNOW that the ones that "chat" are around 75% bearish. This along with what I see on the TV, read in the paper, and hear from people continue to help me stay strong while the past two days have happened. I have had a good feel for the market all year long and no reason to change now.

Not only that, look at what medical stocks have done and tech charts are now starting to do. Swing-long trades: DGIN ABRX URBN MCX MUSE HSP POWI BBI FRGO

I have a lot of technology stocks popping up on my scans while the market falls, so I continue to believe tech is leading this next rally coming up.

Oh yeah. Time to admit a fault and admire a good....

ISSC. Bad trade. It reversed today. You cut your loss and move on.

INNO. I posted this chart as a long on April 20th and have been long since Jan 31st. I sold 1/4 today up 63%. Holding other 3/4 for further price appreciation according to chart.

Another nice intraday reversal.

April 29th the Nasdaq, Sp500, Dow, and Small Cap 600 all started out weak, got weaker, then reversed to close at or near the high of the days. The Nasdaq reversed the most dipping further down intraday than the rest of the indexes. The same thing happened today. These are moves you see in a current rally. And that is what we have been having for the past two weeks.

Today proved yet another chance for the bears to crush this rally and they couldn't do it. They even had help today with a plane flying off course and caused a spike down that ended up getting the stops and washed out the weak hands for the reversal.

The two reversals I have talked about above (apr 29 and today) did not happen all year as we were going down. When the market used to crack the bounce did nothing that constituted a bullish reversal. This time things are different. Dips are being bought.

The best thing about this rally, people are still bearish. That is the wall of worry we need to keep climbing. There is plenty of resistance ahead for the indexes but I keep looking at all these beautiful charts I have in leading sectors and fundamentally strong stocks and can't help but think these resistance levels on the indexes will be broken sooner rather than later. But if we get some heavier volume and some 2% moves down, I will of course change my mind. Doubt that happens this time though. The bears are late to the beginning of the year sell-off.

As a bonus, though, if you are a bear. How did you like my GRU short yesterday. You would have made a small killing in one day. I did not take the short, cause I believe we are in a rally-that-has-legs kinda market and did not want to risk a MCRS happening to me.

Swing-long trades to take (buy as close to pivot point as possible): ISSC PWAV DADE MTX BAP CCRT TXCC SYKE FARO. There are also some medical stocks that look good but I am not going long in them: HSIC BOL

Do me a favor if you read this, go back to yesterdays commentary and check out how TXCC, SYKE, and GRU (short) did. I know you will like that.

Have a great day!! I did. Aloha.

How bad was today? Not that bad, if you do your own work.

If you listen to the TV, read the paper, or visit chat rooms, you will notice the high level of negativity out there. If you look at the individual charts of the leaders in the market, however, you get a different story. Almost all of my longs acted well today, like the market didnt even go down, and plenty of new charts came up on my scan today for new swing-long positions. So who is right? I am not sure. So lets look at what we have now...

The indexes did what I mentioned they might do yesterday (bounce off key moving averages), with the Nasdaq bouncing down off 50/200 dma, Dow bouncing off the 200 dma, and the NYSE and SP500 bouncing off the 50 dma and they did it with a small increases in volume. Is it time to panic? No. A pullback or a consolidation is something we needed after seven straight up days. With all the nice charts I see on my scans that look good, the high level of pessimism, and all the focus on negative news in the media I feel comfortable that we will hold the lows set in April.

However, anything can happen. Always be receptive to market changes. It can happen at any time.

Update::::::::The more I look at the volume on the index charts the less I feel as confident as I was right after the market closes. One of the things I love about trading is that after doing something else fun and coming back to your work/hobby/love and reviewing the charts again, it is possible to interpret it differently. I still am bullish on my medicals and tech stocks still but I have to respect how well those index did in fact fail at the key moving averages. When the August low happened they pierced right thru the moving averages.:::::::Update.

Long swing-trades: FARO GHL GAJ IDIX CNMD CRYP ENG TXCC FORM BAP APT SYKE

and lets add one short I like from the 50 dma breakdown that was loved by daytraders: GRU

Aloha. No surf today :(

CKCM

I also noticed something in hindsight today...On Friday I mentioned how much I like the fundamental/technical patterns in CKCM. Well after today's 9% move, I can see I made a mistake. That move yesterday was a breakout from a proper W-bottom chart pattern that started in early Feb, made first bottom in March, second lower bottom on lower volume on May 1st, and broke out on Friday.

The 43% move blinded me to the fact that this stock broke out none-the-less. If I would have just been a little more aleart I would have noticed that from the 2002 bottom to the 2005 top, it moved 5,805%. That would of helped me notice the W-bottom within the larger uptrend and could have alowed me to gain an entry today. Instead I now have to wait for that pullback.

It is never losing money that bothers traders, it is missing out on the huge winners that hurt the most.

Another boring day, another constructive day.

Today was a good day for the bulls, even though volume fell across the board. I like that I still see a lot of bearishness in the chat rooms I monitor. I call this climbing "the wall of worry." I see a lot of good chart patterns from tech and medical stocks, so I find impossible to understand why so many people are bearish. But that is what makes a market, the few who can follow the trend and not try to game the future always come out ahead. So if you are in to predicting what the market is going to do game, I would come over to the trend side. I see a change in the market from what we had the past couple of months.

The indexes are near resistance levels and I am sure that comforts the bears. But with all the positive charts out there and the money that the medicals have been making me I dont think those resistance levels are going to hold. It appears they might soon become support. But once again. I dont know. I am just trying to think opposite from the majority of traders I know now. Think about it: we had two dips today and both were bought and we closed near the highs of the day. That is not bearish.

And you know what my example of a bull market is: NURO (another plus 10% gain in less than a week for a medical stock after breaking out).

Now for today's swing-trade longs: KV-A NRPH LMS APT FORD BAP ACU FTO NNI OMR SBAC FSL ABB FC.

I have mentioned many of these before. Which either means they continue to go up then rebase and break out again. Or I got them on the 50dma and now they are breaking out of most recent bases. THIS IS NOT PUMPING!! This is smart trading.

Also I mentioned in the #daytraders chat room, Friday, that the ET and AMTD merger rumor is probably true, since both stocks have been tracing the same chart pattern for the past year and a half. I said this because that is what DCAI and MDKI did recently before DCAI took it in.

ALOHA this has been a great week and a half. Lots of money to be made on the long side still.

Consolidating gains

The markets did close to nothing today, with a major dip in volume. That is a good sign for the bulls as consolidating gains helps prepare for a stronger move higher. Besides that, there is not much else I have to add. I am sure you were as bored today as I was with the action. Overall, however, I am happy with the action and hope we have some better trading in the upcoming weeks. If you have been reading this blog for the past week you will notice that over 75% of all swing trades I have offered as potential trades have moved higher (some significantly). That is what happens when the markets are in uptrends. :)

Here are the charts that came up on my scan today for swing-trade long positions:
OMR LABS RNWK SBAC AFCO IW

CKCM is my next "I REALLY WANT TO OWN THIS" stock. The move today came on its heaviest volume in its history. The prior uptrend that ended in Feb came on huge trade, the pullback to today came on light trade, and today the stock POPPED on its largest trade ever. EXCELLENT pattern. If this stock can base sideways or move lower a bit, an entry is something I "long" for. I believe new highs are coming. This chart is just beautiful (even tho it is not ready yet) and look at the fundamentals: YOY revenue change of 107%, Profits up 209%, pre-tax profit margin of 24%, EPS 76, and RS 98. If the market stays bullish this is going to be a nice stock.

ALOHA. C U on Monday.

A solid day after some negative news.

Today was a victory for the bulls, because there was plenty of reasons for the sellers to reverse yesterdays gains. GM and F downgrade of bonds to junk status by SP was the big one. Yet the bulls fought it off and closed the day on a positive sign by not closing at the LOD (low of the day). We have broken the up, down, up, down, up pattern, by not giving back the majority of today's gains. Volume was also lighter than yesterday suggesting the indexes are digesting yesterdays gains for a further move to the upside.

I don't have much else to say, cause today was a boring day for the indexes but lets look at stocks...There are starting to be some great patterns in technology and medical is already leading this current short-term rally. Here are some more stocks that look healthy for further price appreciation. Rember you want to buy these as close to the pivot point as you can.

BLUD RNWK BOOM CMD GENZ OATS WFMI SMTS CCRT THOR CHTT

And for everyone that thinks BOOM is a scam stock. Why don't you look at the fundamentals of the company and let the market decide if it is a scam or not. Since its February 15th breakout, it is clear to see on a daily chart that there are no sellers in the crowd only buyers. That is why in April the downtrend was on low volume. Since the Feb breakout it is up 140%. What kind of scam is that????? NONE.

ALOHA and SURFS UP!!

Markets in confirmed rally for the short-term and sub-intermediate time frame.

Intermediate still remains down but who cares!!!! The market's primary trend since the October 2002 bottom has been sideways. THIS IS A GOOD THING! It is called base building. I am starting to see a lot more cry-babies and whiners in the chat rooms that I monitor. That tells me, along with the more recent bearish newsletter writers, that this turn could have some good legs to go with it. Sentiment is so poor and the bears are so confident that prices are going to fall that I think further upside is almost a certain to happen. But it doesn't matter what I think.

Stocks advanced across the board, volume grew, and more breakouts appeared with good fundamentals. Not good for the perma-bears who think the market is going to fall apart and go to hell. Are they crazy? No. Just newbies or lazy people who refuse to look to the past for answers and want their prediction to come true. Too bad it almost never does work out that way.

Also don't forget: I hear a lot of people saying "but rates are rising, rates are rising." Once again, If you look at history, the market proves conventional wisdom wrong again. Going back to 1997, you can clearly see that when rates are rising the market goes higher. When the Fed is cutting rates the market follows the rates. Don't believe me. Go look for yourself.

Fed begins rasing rates to the end of its raising cycle: stocks move up.
Fed begins lowering rates to the bottom of its lowering cycle: stocks move down.

Don't fret the Fed.

I have covered ALL oil shorts and have less than 3% of my account short. That tells me this is a strong market, with medicals leading the way.

ALOHA.

Longs for swing trades

I will be back later on to explain the conditions the markets are in.

Swing trade longs should be bought as close to the pivot point as possible, remember.

MSCC FLOW SBAC CNU AQNT PSTI UNWR THOR. AQNT CNU PSTI need to pullback before they are new buys.

If you have been reading my blog, you know I screwed up on QSII. You should also know that I have bought PSTI TWICE and had to cut the loss twice. Look at what it did today (up 9.75%). Oh well. But now time to show you good examples. CNU TZIX RCI. Sold RCI today, TZIX still holding since purchase up 25%, and CNU (up 12% today) still holding for much higher prices. CNU is in the right industry, and has one of the best looking charts in my long portfolio besides DSTI SCVL INNO.

Aloha. I will be back to talk about the indexes after another surf session.

Market is confused! Cash is king.

Nothing to add today that I have not mentioned before. Market is still in overall downtrend with small signs that it is trying to bottom on the very short-term. I can not add much today that has not already been heard or said, if you follow the market. Thank God we have a huge swell coming in our south shore beaches and I was not around for the "excitement" that a Fed meeting causes. Nothing has changed in my assumptions about the market. I have found some long swing-positions to take a SMALL poke on. Going long in this market if you are not experienced is slow suicide. Unless you are long GOOG and as much as I know about the company and how well I follow IBD, I should be ashamed of myself for not owning some shares of the most fundamentally strong stock in the market. Bottom line, in this market, cash is your best investment.

Long swing-positions (keep tight cut losses in this market): NLS NURO VDSI TUP

Aloha, SURFS UP!!

A coma is more exciting than this market.

The markets did close strong at or near the highs of the day, but really today was meaningless and dull. It was a very boring day and came with some of the lowest volume we have seen all year. Everybody is waiting to hear from Greenspan, which I can only pray gives us some direction of follow-thru to the downside or upside so we can get some decent action on the indexes instead of this up, down, up, down, up, and down series. I am still sitting mostly on cash and am holding few shorts and longs. Most of my longs are completely made of medicals. I do however have a few decent longs to show tonight for possible long swing-trades.

ACU DJO PMD RCI PHS WOOF THOR IMA ATRI ROL LKQX PWAV ABB

All of the stocks (except last four) are from the medical industry. It is obvious looking at all my medical stocks making nice moves out of good bases that this is the only "safe" (using it loosely) area to make good consistent money on the long side currently. I am not sure what this says about the market cause the market changes all the time. But history shows, when you have medicals leading, the market is not too healthy. Unless this time it is different. Don't you love it? I do.

I will be back later to see if there are any more longs I missed and if there are any shorts I might want to poke.
Aloha

Three more longs that I like for swing trades

After updating IBD Your Weekly Review, 100, and Where Big Money Flowing, I have come up with three long swing-trades:
CNXS
ACU
KTII

Aloha

FUN MARKET.

NOT.

When I get it wrong I will be the first to admit it and yesterday showing only shorts and no longs should have been my hint today was going to be an up day. Instead I stuck with my guns and showed shorts. I went short even one of them, getting hit quite nicely in QSII. That is twice it has done that to me, btw. But what other two did I mention that could have lost you big money: MCRS NTGR. Hey, when I get it wrong I get it wrong. Luckily both were not in the best shorting positions so I skipped them. But bottom line is how many people admit they were wrong. Not too many that are not for real. But I am for real and for that I apologize.

Anyway, back to the market. Short-term SP500 and DJ-30 still holding the recent lows and had a nice (not great) day today on a pickup in trading. That is another accumulation day and since it was up 1-2% it counts as the confirmation day of this current short-term rally. SP600 still looks weak overall after making new lows yesterday and today does not get me too excited about its current condition. The Nasdaq on the other hand is a different animal. I am seeing leadership in this index and can tell by all the charts starting to show up in my scan in uptrends that are technology and internet related that the nasdaq is taking leadership. It does not mean it is going a lot higher but for now seems stronger than other indexes. Today it had a great intraday reversal on higher volume and I must admit the reversal looked good. However, it reset its current rally yesterday into a failed rally and today would be day one of its new current attempted rally. Crazy market? You bet.

Longs that look great for a swing trade: CYH DIOD RVI PYX MCRS HLTH ARRS ABB CHL SIVB

I have mentioned SIVB ABB DIOD RVI HLTH before.

So even though today was one of my worst days in a year, I am still up big for the year and handily beating the averages. That is all I can ask for. My positive attitude I believe is a key to succeed at this endevor. That is why a day like today doesnt make me upset instead it makes me happy to know that my longs might do better than what they have been doing.

Don't let this market get you down. It only will help in washing out the weak hands so we can make way for a real rally.

ALOHA surfs up!!!!!!!!

All indexes now in short term downtrend (except sp500)

SP600 and NYSE have failed there attempted rally by establishing new lows for the year and the Nasdaq gave another distribution day signaling it is not a time to be going long stocks yet. I had a rough day on the long side and that is my key to stay away from longs and stick with shorts cause that is what is working for now.

SHORTS: QSII PHM COL XOM CEO L LECO WRNC SFCC KSWS MCRS USU OPEN NTGR SHOP HURN BOBJ PKI PRZ GW EQIX LFG BEXP AUGT HOT OXY CETV CP TKC

I have mentioned some of these before but they are still shortable and still offer plenty of profit potential. Remember to cut loss above today's highs if they dont work.

ALOHA

Very short term is looking more up.

Sub-Intermediate and Intermediate term trends in all the major indexes are all down. But the very short term appears to be a small base (NOT saying it is the bottom!!). Considering technically the SP600 and NYSE is still in a confirmation of an uptrend mode and SP500, Dow, Nasdaq has not pierced its recent lows this month with all the negativity I am hearing we could be getting a nice tradeable rally. But overall we are under the 50 dma on all averages so I would not get excited. However volume did pick up today and my longs continue to work quite well. So here are some more longs to consider:

RG ALNY TUP AIR SMBI and two I mentioned before DSTI ASPM. I also like THOR and DGIN on a big pullback right to their pivot points.

shorts: VLO SSL CRS NXY HRS ATI CNL PRZ

Stop calling a bottom. It looks like we are just moving sideways to down for now. Relax and have a great evening.

ALOHA

Another distribution day.

These days are adding up. Anybody going long with a significant portion of their account is making the wrong trade. The big money to be made is on the short side. If you go through this past month in this blog you will see a ton of money has been made on all my shorts. Yet everyone wants to talk about longs. To be honest, forget about that. Grow up and understand I take longs in this market cause I know what I am doing. If you are new you should ONLY RIGHT NOW be shorting the rallies. Indexes are all in downtrend intermediate and short term now. The accumulation days in the NYSE and SP600 dont mean a whole lot to me anymore. The distribution day today along with a lot of shorts bumping right at resistance says prices should go lower. We need more fear and pain for this market to bottom and I dont see it at all yet. I cant wait till it happens but until then have to trade the short side aggressively and the long side with very tight stops.

Indexes all in a downtrend so remember these longs will probably follow the market but they have the patterns and I have the experience to say these are the better bets to take as long swing trades: STMP - on a pullback to pivot point, ENER - mentioned this before, SPTN - breakout today, CNB - nice tight base it is getting ready to complete, CNU - is green on BOP, has a ton of accumulation in chart, and looks like it is ready to breakout. CNU STMP are my favorite charts.

Now this is where the money is being made right now: Shorts: IPS PHLY INFY ESI COGT FRK SE MVK MOH NSS DST MDS
I have mentioned quite a few of these before.

Good luck and enjoy the ride down.
Aloha.

Two more longs

PBCT is a beautiful chart breaking out of a cup with handle pattern and a company with great earnings/sales growth. It is a buy in the morning. Cut loss at a move below 50 dma, if it pulls back on low volume, or do it with a breach of 40.39 price.

EW is also a long if it can make a new high (March high) on strong volume.

That is all.
Aloha.

Not sure which way market wants to go.

The indexes are ALL in an intermediate-term downtrend still. All are still in short term downtrends too, except the SP600 and NYSE. So still can not get too bullish but I must admit my longs have been doing beyond what I would expect in this kind of market. And then my shorts that made me some good cash recently that have bounced seem to be setting up decent short-term bottoms. But then again some shorts I still have that have moved against me seem to be hitting key resistance if they fail that can not be good.

To add to all of this I am noticing the beginning of some Internet stock bases: IMNY VRSN RNWK IVIL. So maybe after another pullback some internet stocks might take some leadership. I guess we will see.

Until then here are some nice charts that are worth taking a swing long position in remember cuttin losses below today's low is an absolute must incase they do not work.

HLEX BRG LB REG PRLS and...
OTD. I know I mentioned OTD twice before this nice breakout today and that is because it showed signs today was coming. It is "still" a buy because it looks like it wants to take out the highs it had in March. I, btw, am expecting more gains than that however.

ALOHA for Monday.

Today's longs

I have to get bullish now, even though I think the market is ultimately heading lower. The SP600 and NYSE are in a confirmed market rally and today's reversal on the SP and Dow was very nice.

My longs are working better now and I am getting higher quality charts showing up on my screens. I am off for a day at the beach but do have some new long candidates along with some longs I have that are acting correctly and showing excellent price action giving another chance to add some buys.

Good luck and don't let the market get you down. Just always be ready for the unexpected cause that is all the market knows how to do.

The best daily swing trade long position possibilities (some have been mentioned before -- a good thing):
ULTI AMHC BCR OTD HTCH SSNC WEN HWG PSAI TCI
The last two are very speculative due to the trading volume but still worth a poke. Remeber you should always cut your losses on these with a breach of the 50dma, today's lows (unless it is very very close to the 50dma), or cut your losses at 5% no matter what.

ALOHA and have a wonderful weekend. Maui No Ka Oi.

NDAQ

Everybody is talking about it being a scam stock. So what, if you can make money off of it. I wont say they are wrong. I cant predict the future but lets take a look at the chart. The stock brokeout on HUGE (heaviest of its trading life) from a short term (one and a half month) cup base and long-term (a little over one year) cup w/handle on Febuary 10th at 10.62. This breakout was of course what I like a stock to look like as it breaks out. I took a position in it that day. The only negative thing is that two days ago the breakdown of the 50 dma on weak volume scared me out of 3/4. Nothing I can do about that I was trying to be disciplined in a weak market. Now for the rest of my 1/4: I am not selling it today as it looks like another breakout (not blowoff top). There are flaws with this breakout. The base was sloppy but if the momentum stays from all the accumulation that has been taken place keep letting profits accumulate. December through April is full of buyers initiating the purchases above or at the ask. This is positive action not negative.

OO

I am going to be keeping an eye on OO for a pullback on low volume to around the 14 area. I like this daily chart and the volume surge today on the earnings looks good as long as today's low holds. Still the base is sloppy with wild price action so I might still hold off. We will see what kind of pullback I get before I decide. Just thought I should share this info with you.

Thank God for IBD's Big Picture

Now I can say I have to be on the lookout for breakouts in small caps. The SP600 has followed-thru as now I know what the volume is on that index. This is the time to start looking for good chart patterns breaking out in the small cap world as this index has been the leading index for a long time. SP600 is the Nasdaq of 1998-2000. It is "the" index.

Long swing trades for today

DSTI AMHC AFCO SSNC WEN ASPM PLLL AEL PRGS OPMR HMX GYI TZIX

What is almost amazing about this list is that I have mentioned half of these before in my past blogs. That means they are still working, still building good bases and price patterns, and are setting up another add to or fresh buy opportunity. Remember to cut losses either at a pierce of today's low, a breakdown below the 50 dma, or the smartest thing cut the loss at 5%. DSTI and SSNC are my two favorite new long candidates for tomorrow. I am in a hurry today to meet up with some friends so can not go into much detail about the individual charts. Anyways, read my market analysis below and check out some of these nice charts.

ALOHA

Who would have seen that coming?

A really nice day for the indexes but it was not a follow thru so I remain very skeptical about this rally. The SP-500 yesterday made a new low for the year, reseting the count of the attempted new rally. So today was the first up day, we now need to see a move of 1.7% on heavier volume in the next 3 to 7 sessions. The Nasdaq on the other hand has held its lows of year and today WOULD have been the "follow-thru" we needed to start buying good quality fundamental stocks with nice chart patterns and excellent speculative chart pattern creating stocks BUT VOLUME WAS LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. No conviction of institutions. If this was a real rally getting ready to start volume would have surged from yesterdays level. But that did not happen so I can not get too bullish. But however I have cut some shorts and will be looking for more long positions. If you think you missed the bottom. Relax. Only lucky people nail bottoms and if you think they do it consistently you are wrong. Plus the biggest winners in the stock market have not made their biggest moves in one day. It takes time to work out and before we go buying everything we need to make sure the "elephants" (institutions) are participating. For now it does not look like it. But we will see.

I want to mention one beautiful base. AIRT

AIRT is creating what appears to be a great looking base. That huge move from June to November has merged into a very tight-priced action base with amazing volume characteristics. Every time the stock bounces it bounces on well above average trade. End of Jan/beg. of Feb, mid March, now. Then the other days when it goes sideways and/or drifts down it does it on very low volume. I also love BOP's action and the fact that Moneystream consistently makes new highs after each bounce lower in the price chart. Very positive action in the base. No postion yet but waiting.

Don't fight the trend

I monitor around nine chat rooms throughout the day sometimes and have noticed that there are a lot of bullish or people that want the market to be bullish. Stop that. The market is going to do whatever it wants to do. The best thing is to not fight the current downtrend. Keep cash handy for when the turn comes.

Today the indexes all fell on an increase in volume than the day before. The pattern remains the same: days down on heavy volume, days up on low volume. Shorts keep on working really well so I'm not going to change my plan of attack yet. Keeping with the shorting theme here are some daily charts to check out on the short side.

USNA PTR HCSG POS JAKK JPM MO Y CYMI SGTL XRTX SEE CCK KBH USB SIE MDTH TCB

There are many more shorts that are ready to go again but I have mentioned them in my blog before. If you are really curious you can go back over the past week and get some more ideas. Some of the charts I mentioned above I have actually mentioned before. Remember that is a good thing. Not a bad thing.

Longs for tomorrow are a little short but that is the point the market is NOT bullish but two of the charts I mention below are both already up big for me but they are breaking out or bouncing off key moving averages on good volume. Will they continue to work? How do I know. The only thing you can do is have tight cut losses. To be honest you shouldn't be going long anyway in this market if you are newbie.

CVV volume has come into it this month. Some fund/institution has taken a likeing to this stock and is willing to bid it up. After having such quiet action before this month, consistently having activity now while creating a nice rounding base, BOP being very strong, and having this as one of the better acting sectors I have decided to take a speculative position in this stock.

INNO I am long this stock from 1/31/2005. The stock has once again broken out from its base on heavy volume. The BOP on this stock is green and has been maxed to almost maxed out since January. The stock consistently rises on good volume, pulls back on low volume, and keeps its price action tight in its base. I am up over 40% on this and still have not sold a single share. The chart was beautiful before (and at) its first breakout on the 31st and it is still looking good now with its second breakout.

OPMR has pulled back to its 50 dma and is bouncing on strong volume. This is a very pretty chart since its late September rocket move. The breakout to a new high on 1/25/2005 was the first buy opportunity since then it has steadily trended up on high volume, green strong BOP, but has not given a good safe buy since the 25th. Today we got it. Cut loss with a move below 50dma.

Here are some more longs I want to add to if they can make new highs: CNU ICUI TZIX OFIX. Notice three of them are health services. Medical leads in bear markets.

ALOHA.

NR

Forgot about this long. This is a nice long term chart with moneystream leading the way. today's breakout makes this an excellent long. nice long term chart pattern

No conviction to today's up move.

Volume once again decreased on all exchanges. Not a positive sign institutions are in a hurry to jump back into the market. But we still have to watch in the next seven days for a move of 1.7% on above average volume to consider us in an uptrend again. Even if we get it I dont think it will last. Market needs to make up time to put together decent bases in the charts so we can have a sustainable move up. Overall a boring day with not much happening.

I did find some longs to consider for tomorrow:
MINI nice bounce off the 50 dma lot of accumulation and nice BOP on tcnet

WEN everybody trash talking WEN but today it broke out of a sloppy base and with all the negativity in this stock I think a good trade is possible.

HTRN just some wonderful accumulation this year, BOP on tcnet is beautiful, and the price pattern is very strong. Today's new high on good volume is another chance to buy some.

AVL mentioned yesterday but with today's breakout a pullback makes an excellent long. As long as the pullback is on low volume.

AWGI BOP on tcnet and volume was coming into this stock before this move today. Even tho I mentioned it yesterday, today's strong move up on good volume signals the breakout is around the corner. If you are long from this morning's open 12.35 is my cut loss.

ALOHA time to surf.

Do nothing day

Today appears to be a dead cat bounce on the indexes. All closed higher but in the lower half of their daily price range. Not positive action. Volume also came in lower than Friday's selling. Not strong support.

I found some longs (but have mentioned almost all of them already in the past -- that is a good thing) and some shorts. But nothing dramatic on either side.

Longs:
WGAT
MDR
KV--A
SIVB
AVL
CHTT
AWGI
UPFC

Remember with longs you can cut the loss at a breach of today's lows or if it is really close to the 50dma you can cut it with a breach of the moving average.

Shorts:
CAI
IPMT
NLC
ELOS are the best four.
PSYS
MCK
HNP
WSO
PVN
MAR
ABC
AOS
SNMX round out some other charts breaking down at key resistance areas.

I want to mention also that I am not perfect. For example I took a beating on my CNTY long today (-13%) but with all the profits I have in my short positions it never (as should always be the case) even hurts the portfolio. Also remember limitng longs is crucial when the markets are in a downtrend like now. Trying to catch the current falling knife is just plain silly when the only charts that look good are medicals.

ALOHA

Before I go to bed...

When i wake up before the bell, in the morning, if the market is down a lot and my short postions gap down a lot as well I will be covering half of em probably. Usually I take half profits at 25% on the short side cause you can only get 100% move. Remember, if the market gaps down more than 1% or starts falling rapidly take some profits from the short positions I have been recommending the past week.

Still a lot of charts that can offer some great short positions

This downleg in the indexes has produced a 5% decline since I talked about the averages bumping up against their 50 dma in their downtrend. The stock charts were all breaking down past week culminating into what we saw Friday. What will Monday bring? How the heck do I know. I do know this, there are fresh shorts still out there and the shorts I currently own and the others I have mentioned have produced some nice profits. I have taken gains (usually cover 1/2 of position no matter what) with some of my shorts being down (or up however you look at it) 25% (CMC, etc...). Still a lot of my shorts charts are broken and if the indexes eventually bounce on low turnover and the individual charts look weak still yet another shorting opportunity may appear. The VIX is jumping, finally, and that helps indicate that fear is building. So my best guess is there will not be blood on the street Monday since a lot of people I talk to suggest it could happen. If it does I would be real happy and would probably cover almost all of my shorts expecting a powerful rebound. But I dont think I have to worry.

Best swing shorts for Monday: GOOG PVN NETL XOM CDWC CORS MTG SPLS ELOS EEEE.

More shorts: NVR ANF KBH URBN OXY PTEN ASCA VLO NICK RMCF USLM GP HCBK STR SU BWLD CDIS ECA HAL NFX COP AEOS MIK ZRAN BPT TDY BFAM BHI BBD SAP YRK BR MAR PPP DSPG.

Swing position Long ideas: PRSC breaking out of a base on top of a base pattern that started in January 2005. It is a medical stock and you know they do the best in bear markets.

Don't believe me well here are all the interesting charts that caught my attention Friday: DNA LNCR TKTX ABT BMY HYTM. The last two I have mentioned before. If TKTX could either base for a week or pullback on low volume to 27.75 I would love to take a position in this beautiful chart. Today's surge in volume was HUGE, BOP is green, and the price action shows excellent characteristics since March 2004.

ALOHA and great luck this upcoming week.

Learning a valuable lesson AGAIN

USG OI UGI I recommended these a couple days of go and had to cut all losses according to my rules. But I learned a valuable lesson a breakout on news in a bear market is not a good position to take. This has happened to me before and I still keep falling for this. Maybe now I have learned my lesson. In a bull market the news usually still moves a breakout. Example of breakout on heavy volume yesterday that i mentioned MAIN. Huge volume move for no reason. And if you think the news of their upcoming earnings call caused the volume surge. ERR you are wrong. Look at the move today. +4.6%.

Many more shorts

If you have been reading this log you seen a lot of the shorts do exactly as the charts said they should do. CMC INFY....you can look at the list yourself. So no need to fight the trend cause there are a ton more. Here are some more shorts for you to consider trading tomorrow for a swing position:

MCRI LCBM ATI OSG TIE CRS TRMB CTSH IHP SGR PD PCP. Those are the best candidates but there are more if you like:
FED GSF MDU FCS MTG BAY FLR BPOP TNB RTP LEG IPS WCG URI LSTR LEN.B TKR ELP AMD PLAY TXRH MIX

I did find some long candidates from the safety sectors:

WGAT PEP HYTM LUB SHOE MAIN USG MDR. Some of these have been mentioned before. Which is a great thing! But these charts are still beautiful and like SHOE have been getting a lot of buying with some green BOP.

Surf is still up and that is why the report is still short. But I think if you have been reading this, you have gotten the point and hopefully have been looking at the charts to see why I select what I do and why it works.

BTW, If it doesn't work NO MATTER WHAT cut the loss below the low of today on today's selections for longs and cover with a move above today's highs for the shorts that are selected. Remember, if it doesn't work, move on.

ALOHA from MAUI.

Charts never lie.

Anybody that did not think today was going to happen needs to start reading my blog more. All those shorts yesterday foretold what is happening now. You just can not have all your leaders charts get ugly, rollover, then break the 50 dma on heavy volume after multiple year uptrends. I will be back later on to give more long/short ideas. But if you go thru my blog and look at my shorts you will see they have done what the charts said they were going to do. And that in turn has made you some "real mad money."

Longs

OTIV pullback to 14.50 is necessary in this market before entering.
SIVB
INNO
BMY
ABB
SCVL again. Third time mention
TMB

Surf is up today and that takes priority.

ALOHA.

I haven't seen so many short's on my scan in a long time.

I have been pounding the table on shorting the oils, ever since Merril Lynch sold that 11mill and 14mill block of XOM on March 9th. Since then the charts rolled over on heavy volume. But now after a small volume rally back up they are all failing on very heavy trade. If you read thru the blog you will see I have mentioned many of these before.

XOM
PXP
CHK
BPT
DNR
TLM
HOC
EPL
PKZ
ASH
OXY
CVX

Now for the other shorts whose charts have broken down on heavy volume.

SEBL KLAC NABI BC KNX JUPM MRX CENX CYMI NUE MWD SEE VSEA USU FCX LOW PSUN SGR IMDC ARXX IFIN PKX HOS AZR TSFG CCJ CNXS WPTE CFSI BUCY

I have mentioned some of these before. I don't know what to make of this as the longs I have suggested the past couple of days have been acting fine. Either moving up or pulling back on low volume. The ones that haven't of course I have gotten rid of but bottom line a lot of my longs are still working. But today was ugly on the charts.

Longs

Sorry for the short post but there is small surf today and I have to surf it. But I, of course, had time to make moves in my portfolio and plan to cut off some shorts as they have either run their course or made strong bounces today on good volume. The good news is I got some pretty charts today and if you have been paying attention to my longs you will see I am doing just fine there.

These are the best looking charts for swing/postion trades
OI
UGI
USG
MDR
NICE
CRI
AFC
PSTI

and here are some more that I have either already talked about or are once again breaking out with volume.
KBH
PHM
PQE
BAP
ASPM
UTHR
SCVL this one is a beauty on TC2000 if you put BOP up
HET
BBBB
CELL

Remember you want to buy as close to the pivot point (the previous high on the chart) as possible and cut your losses no matter what with a move below today's close.

Covered rest of qqqq and spy short

just to be safe. There is some small surf and I am hard up to get some. I covered some (but not a lot--still ugly charts) shorts and have found at least 5 really nice longs today. When I get back in I will update for tomorrow. Strong looking day but volume is still below the 50 day volume average. So this may either be a dead cat bounce or just another base building day waiting for that 1.7% move on heavier trade to give us a confirmation day on the rally that might have started on March 30th. OR it could be a bounce back to the 50 dma before going even lower. I mean remember Alan Greenspan isn't putting on the brakes because he thinks the economy is strong. He knows gas prices/oil is starting to hurt the consumer. But still some nice longs to look at. I will be back later.

Covered another 1/4 of my QQQQ and SPY position

Still holding half.

ALOHA.

Shorts

CCK rolled over in March and has now broke its 50 dma on strong volume. RS already hitting new lows.

CMN might need a bounce but convincingly broke that 50 dma on heavy volume. Since this is a medical stock it might not make a great short but the chart pattern is there.

GDP broke in March moved with the 50 dma and now has failed it on a pickup in volume.

JMDT IPO short bumping 50 dma after multiple failures. A cut loss with a move above 19.00.

AFFM IPO short bumping and failing 50 dma. Chart looks like it is rolling over.

FLSH broke down in March, rode its 50 dma, and has now failed it in heavy volume.

BWA now breaking its 200 dma on heavy volume. Past month and a half is full of sellers. A move above today's high and you know I am wrong.

HCR nasty break in February but it somehow rallied. Well now it is breaking again and the past two weeks there have been obvious sellers. This chart does not look healthy.

FON heavy volume churning today against its 50 dma. Since Dec it has slowly trended down and now looks ready to fail and move lower again.

SEPR perfect looking short chart. My BOP went from green to yellow to red today, price stopped right at the 50 dma, and then failed on heavy trade. SEPR is the best looking short tonight.

AACC failed the 50 dma on heavy trade rallied on light trade back to it and now has rolled over past its 200 dma on heavy trade. AACC is an ugly chart with a heavy seller in the crowd.

Longs

WGAT update. If a new pulback to $5.00 comes that is the new entry. I nibbled some at $5.50. Read my Friday long's post for the WGAT chart story.

OTD is a speculative play. Less money and looser cut losses warranted. OTD is shaping a beautiful base from early/mid March to today with quiet trade on down days and heavy trade on up days. It appears to have double bottomed in Sept and January, rallied strongly on great volume to March, has shown excellent green BOP, and is moving strongly today from that tight month long base. I have poked an early position before the breakout due to this year's price/volume action.

MPAC has shown some excellent price/volume action since January and is making a tight flat base on low volume. Today showed a strong block come in above the bid, BOP is moving green again, RS making new highs before price, and excellent fundamentals. If MPAC makes a move above April's high a position is warranted.

GRS is another gold stock looking good. This chart has made an excellent long cup with handle (one year). Volume has shown consistent heavy trade on up days and tight price action. The move yesterday followed by todays breakout on heavier trade with strong BOP and new highs in moneystream makes a position here in GRS look smart. A better place would be a low volume pull back to 6.50.

FNX is not a safe long now but today's volume makes it one to watch. BOP was strong on last month move up, then it pulled back on very light trade, now it is moving up again this time on HUGE trade. 100 to 1000 shares before a breakout above March highs is good. Cut loss at 6.15 or sooner depending on risk tolerance. Great potential upside.

MAXF is another speculative long. NOTICE THAT IS ALL THERE IS FOR NICE BASES. NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR A BULLISH MARKET. BOP has been full green for over a month, big volume moves, and a current tight base. A move over 13.90 is the long signal.

CHTT also looks like it wants to make new highs. BOP green strong, RS really strong, fundamentals are incredible, and this move today looks like CHTT is going higher.

I want to add two more shorts to watch on Monday

SBUX already broke down rallied to its March 50 dma and created its first opportune time to get short. This breakdown past two days is bad. It failed both 50/200 dma, with a pickup of volume and a move below yesterdays close it is becoming obvious SBUX looks to be going to the lower 40's.

CMC is coming right back to that March high (which churned on huge volume) off of a rally that showed lackluster enthusiasm. With yesterday's move to the downside with a pickup in volume, my moneystream making new lows already for the year, and the ugly BOP it looks like CMC could go to the mid 20's.

Shorts

LOW failed at its 50 dma in March and now has broken its 200 dma on a pickup in volume.

NSC second 50 dma failure this year on heavy trade. This time looks to be for real as the chart is now looking like a rollover.

CSX is a short once it breaks that 50 dma. It looks like that is going to happen as the sector is weak and the past three weeks have shown a couple of big negative days.

BWLD second and more powerful breakdown below the 50 dma. This chart is choppy and wild signaling it may be time to go lower.

UTIW has failed at its 50 dma on good volume. With its sector turning weak it looks like lower prices are coming

YELL is too extended to the downside but a low volume bounce makes it a great short as the past month has not shown good price/volume action and today's breakdown came on huge trade.

PII needs to make a low volume bounce to the 50 dma also. But the past two weeks have been littered with BIG sellers and I dont see why at least the 200 dma wont come into play.

FWRD extended also but a low volume bounce followed by a move down is the time to grab a short. Whole sector is weak.

PKX nice short. Past month full of distribution days. Another failure at its 50 dma on a pickup in volume says lower 40's are on the way.

FOXH an IPO 50 dma failure. Always a good short. This chart looks like it is rolling over along with the failure at the 50dma on volume.

CVGI after topping in March it went below the 50 dma and now is bouncing lower off of the average with a pickup in volume.

COL after a long uptrend it has cracked its 50 dma on a pickup in volume. Chart looks like it is rolling over.

ELNK rallied back to its 50 dma after a HUGE break in Febuary. The failure here on a pickup in volume is evidence that ELNK will be making new lows.

NAFC ugly BOP on chart along with a weak rally back to the 50 dma (with selling involved mind you) after its break in March. the high volume move down today appears to be the start of another move down.

KEA yet another failure at the 50 dma. The pickup on volume along with ugly chart makes me believe KEA will see $10.

ALOHA and have a great weekend.

ONE LONG

WGAT needs to pullback to around $4.75 but the breakout today was on huge volume coming right off the 50dma, the run-up in Dec came on huge trade and strong BOP, the base for the past 3 months came with light trade and tight price action. A very pretty chart.

Covered 1/4 of my shorts SPY QQQQ

1/4 cover SPY and QQQQ at the bell.

Shorts

GGG 50 dma breakdown on heavy trade. This is not the best time to short it. A small rally on low volume would be the opportune time. Cut the loss at 40.

INFY 50 dma rollover breakdown on heavy volume

BBW is breaking down for a second time in a row on strong volume. A rally on low volume makes a good short opportunity.

RNOW has bumped and failed at its 50 dma continuing its downtrend. Cut loss with a move over 50dma

SRVY another IPO short. These are the ones I like. High volume 50 dma soon to come failure. Wait for the actual break before taking a position. Once it breaks and starts moving lower use the 50 dma to cut the loss.

Longs

SRX the 3 yr earnings growth of 39% and sales growth of 31% helps support the charts breakout. Three days of heavy accumulation culminating this breakout has come from a strong uptrend and heavy support off of February's bottom. Relative strength is also hitting new highs and led price. A great sign.

XRTX is another fundamentall strong stock. 3 yrs earnings/sales is 91%/39%. XRTX's volume is picking up and if it can break that 20 level on some volume a breakout looks to produce higher prices.

CRYP bouncing off the 50 dma on heavy volume. An excellent add to point from its very strong Feb. breakout.

CNTY breakout on heavy trade from 3 1/2 month cup w long handle. BOP is green, great accumulation on chart since April 04 makes this a strong long.

OMR breakout on heavy trade from year long cup w handle. BOP is extremely green, the base has shown tight price action with relatively quiet trade in the base. This is a pretty chart

SCVL looks like it is ready to breakout from that month long handle from its one year plus long cup with handle. This chart has shown a ton of accumulation on its right side of its base (feb-march). BOP is really pretty too.

Going short SPY QQQQ

Indexes are bumping up against their 50 dma and the move towards it has come on very weak volume. This is typical of a dead cat bounce. Bounce to the key moving averages and resume trend. With the lack of leadership in strong sectors, I feel confident about these positions. If I am wrong, no big deal. I will cut my loss at SPY 119.75 QQQQ 37.20.

ISCA MNT

This is a perfect example of what I dont want a position to do. It was obvious I was way wrong on these. With that you have to cover the whole lot. The odds were in favor of a continuous move down and it did not happen. When you are wrong you can never second guess why or what the market is doing. You must listen to the market and agree with it that you were just plain wrong. My analysis has been proven incorrect and I must take my lumps.

Longs

DIOD 4 month cup with handle breakout on heavy trade. DIOD has some flaws like heavy trade within its base but the high volume strong price moves in February and tight price action in the base is very bullish

WPPGY nice bounce off the 50 dma on heavy trade. A lot of accumulation on this chart past 8 months and beautiful BOP (until just a short while ago but it looks like it is going to change) on tc2000.

ZOLT is resuming its previous uptrend with a high volume move over its 50 dma.

HET has made a high volume move over 50 dma. It would be a nice long with a pullback. A cut loss with a move below 50 dma is recommended due to the inconspicuous chart pattern.

Shorts for Tomorrow

SPF needs to rally back to 50 dma before it is a go. But this stock is now broken with this heavy volume move to the downside.

JCOM has rallied back to 50 dma on low volume after its huge break. Screaming short with a cut loss above 50 dma

CKFR high volume 50dma break

CPL 50 dma failure. This was an IPO not too long ago. Those are always good trades if you can get em.

DELL starting a new trend down again? High volume engulfing candle to the downside after failing at 50 dma. A break of the 200 dma appears to be coming.

AMG high volume 50 dma failure

WLK 50 dma failure on big volume. This stock has rolled over and the past month has been littered with high volume down days.

MNT 50/200 dma failure on large volume.

SLXP 50 dma failure rollover on high volume.

BG huge volume 50 dma failure.

These are daily charts and should be taken as position trades. NOT DAYTRADES. Remember, cut your loss at 5% or above the high of today's current price bar.

ALOHA

Speculative Longs for Tomorrow

When I see the patterns I see below they usually work. If they don't, cut your loss below today's low.

TIMHY has shown consistent huge volume up days the whole year of 2005. This stock is also forming a tight base with terrific volume characteristics within its year long base. Today's accumulation off the 50 dma looks like institutional support coming in again.

TIII nice breakout from year long cup with handle base. BOP is green, strong accumulation in base, low distribution, and tight price action are all good signs.

LUB breakout on heavy volume from 5 month cup w/ handle base and also 13 month base on top of base. This has the same characteristics as the last two stocks mentioned.

XTND high volume move today within its year long base. Recent action is showing a lot of accumulation with green BOP looking nice also. A move higher seems highly especially with the quiet trade within the base on down days.

Also remember when speculative stocks are moving like this without strong fundamentally sound stocks...that is not good for the market.

Longs for Tomorrow

Market gave another distribution day today on the Nasdaq. So, as always, 3 out of 4 stocks follow market. But since my longs have been doing OK, I will continue to play the long side also.

ISRG breakout today from a flat base

AMHC needs a p/b to 36.15. Breakout from four month base

CERN p/b to 54.75 go long. Breakout from four month base

SIGI had a high volume bounce off its 50dma. It has shown a lot of accumulation since Feb. A new high looks to be coming soon.

CQB strong BOP. Showing lots of accumulation recently within a solid uptrend. New highs looks very probable.

Shorts for Tomorrow

QCCO another IPO short

ISCA ugly wild candle on daily. Watch this for further weakness.

COI looks unhealthy with a failure at 200 dma after a heavy selloff from previous level. If wrong cut loss before 12.50.

ADM 50 dma break on volume. Looks to be rolling over. 20 looks doable.

ESIO failing at both moving averages with a pickup in volume

WMS failing at moving averages with a pickup in volume also

QSFT if it rallys to 200 dma on low volume a short position looks right.

SRNA breakdown on heavy volume from its 50 dma.

Longs for Tomorrow

WC on a pull back to 54.50 level on low volume is a nice buy after the strong volume it has shown blasting through its 3 1/2 month base.

KRY gold stock is a buy with its high volume move. With a break of its March highs the buy confirmation will be recognized. Building a strong base since November with proper volume characteristics inside the base.

PLB breakout from cup (late Oct to Feb) and handle (Feb to now) on high volume.

APPX breakout from high cup (Apr 04 to Jan 05) and handle (Jan to now) on high volume.

ABB bouncing off 50 dma on big volume. A starter position is worth taking with a tight cut loss. Past two months has shown a lot of accumulation days after a quiet base. BOP on tc2000 is looking very healthy and green.

SCS Look at past 5 months volume in its base. Tons of accumulation. A breakout above 14.45-.50 is a go.

Shorts

CVX another oil stock breaking down on huge volume. A short now and a rally to the 50 dma is a high reward, low risk play.

ALXN is getting ready to break that 200dma. It has shown multiple down days on huge trade. Add today to that mix and lower prices look certain for this stock.

AHC this small base it is building is littered with distribution days and this nasty reversal along with its rolling over sector seems like a good short a move over 100 would negate that.

PKZ breaking down from its 50 dma again on good volume

FDG this stock is coming under pressure from sellers since December yet it still keeps climbing. I have a feeling that is over and a move down will start soon.

PTR this may be its last move to these levels. I have started a short position due to the high volume selloff again reaching this price leve. The whole sector is being sold by the smart money right now.

A is rolling over again. Breaking recent support on high volume and now both moving averages are trending behind it.

WYNN looks like Baron Funds is selling it. They had it the whole way up and it looks like the blow off top of Dec and now this high volume roll over is being done by some smart fund guys. A pullback to the 66 level makes this a good short.

ALOHA

Fundamentally and Technically Strong Longs

MCRS is a buy as today's breakout came on strong volume. Weekly chart is also very strong with proper accumulation/distribution characteristics.

RTSX a pullback to 20 is an excellent long to take. This strong chart has some flaws so i would watch it closely. But the fundamentals support this move.

ISSC looks ready to breakout with a move over 34.25. I have already taken a position as I feel this chart is strong with its 3 1/2 month cup with handle about complete, BOP green again, and it being a fundamentally strong stock.

Speculative Longs

OTD (wait for a move over 1.75 on volume)
DLK pullback to .45 entry
PHMD is a go at this price
ABP (again) need to pullback to today's low on low volume to be added to.
BBBB is a long at this price level.

All of these can be bought tomorrow if they pull back to their pivot points. If you don't know what a pivot point is, then please go to www.investors.com and read. Also you can cut your losses at a breach of today's lows or less.

Longs that are speculative. Dont play them unless you are a PRO.

First off: When i pick these stocks these are after the bell has closed. I then look at the chart. If it is breaking out on huge volume, I will see if it pulls back to its pivot. If it does I take a tiny position to play the speculativity of these. Look at my past comments on SILCF. And if there has been a previous run-up in prices for a couple of months on huge trade, then a pullback that hopefully last a couple of months that also bases around its moving averages, I will then take a position if it breaks its basing pattern on huge trade example today is DLK. I will nibble if it hits .45 cents a share.

IPO shorts (my favorite)

LVS THRX BDAY IDIX PLSB CLMS TLVT all broke down from support or key moving averages on high volume. If you can find shorts and if you are an experienced chartist, shorts on these plays should offer up some nice rewards. You can cut all losses with a move above today's highs.

If you know how to read charts you dont need me to tell you when to buy

Someone said I lose credibility by not posting my buy and sells. Oh yeah that is real easy when you sometimes have over 30 positions at once. If you know how to use charts you will be able to tell when i sell. If you have questions just post it in the comment box and i will be more than happy to explain.

Ugly charts everywhere but the market is still holding those March 30th lows

The nasdaq and SP both held those March 30th lows so technically we still have day one on the map that could lead to a follow thru. If that happens tho it might not last. I still have a ton of ugly charts and less than 20 beautiful flawless charts. And most of those turn out ugly recently. So that leaves me with the opinion we still have to move lower. I mean come on all I am finding that actually makes me money are shorts. But I know how people love longs so here are some pretty charts to look at that I like or have taken a small (cause we are in a downtrend!) position in. And when i say small I mean no stock is larger than 2% of my account.

ABP ENER WTSLA TPE DSTI HAWK OTIV YDNT

I also mentioned a small cap stock mentioned SILCF in a chat room that i frequent. It made a huge move on huge volume on March 23rd out of a year long plus base. A pullback to the pivot point of 3.00 was taken the next day as I suggest in the chat room. The chart is very nice with the sound base and plenty of green BOP so a pullback to 3.40 the next couple of days would be a good add-on to play this small stock. This stock is pure speculation due to the low volume and current market condition we are in so be swift when moving with this one.

ALOHA

Shorts for the weekend to ponder

PDFS 50 dma failure on heavy volume after a long base filled with heavy volume. Not good.

MYGN I want a bounce before another short opportunity comes available but a small add-on short here if you got short the late March support breach on good volume.

CFB 50/200 dma failure on heavy volume and 2005 support breach, after already selling off earlier this year.

TXRH is a great short with a follow thru down day on heavy volume from its late March break on heavy volume. These IPO shorts are great when you can find them and I think TXRH could head to its 21 starter price.

CME had its 3rd failure at the 50 dma and did it on heavy volume. Breaking below its March support on good volume creates yet another entry on CME. The early March breakdown was the second and best short entry area.

DCX with gas prices so high, I guess ppl can not afford to buy new cars. DCX is falling again on heavy volume. Since its mid March break on heavy volume it has churned lower on decent volume. Then today another slap in the face. This is a great short entry and if those October lows get bested, I dont see why those lower 30s cant be hit.

STK and SPLS are also both shorts. Both charts show a rolling over on heavy trade.

Insurance companies get hit

Insurance shorts: CB STA FAF FFH PTP TRH ABK and many other smaller ones

Thanks to AIG we have an entire group heading in the toilets. A lot of these stocks have sold off on heavy volume, rallied on lower volume, and most have failed at key moving averages. For the stocks in this group that have either gone too far past there moving averages or too far below last support, you should wait for a rally. For the others just tagging the averages or just breaking support short at will this group is in trouble for the time being.

NCT short

This stock is rolling over. The April top has given way to a year long slow rollover. Starting in January this year it moved below its key moving averages and has had a tough time piercing them. Today it has broken down on rising volume and appears ready to start a substantial leg down.

XL ugly

Short opportunity for XL with todays strong move down after failing to even reach that 50/200 dma inflection point. With the subtle distribution the last couple of months i would expect a move below the October low. But the Oct low had strong volume to bottom out on, so if there appears to be strong support if it reaches that level again I would take a little profit.

FRE short

Uh oh..Freddie is failing both the 50 and 200 dma again. This breakdown today on big volume looks like a continuation move from its top in January. The selloff in Febuary gave way to a bounce on lower volume and now the move down on heavy volume again. Looks like history repeating itself again to me.

LUM

breaking to all time new lows on good volume. A short for a couple of bucks.

WMGI short

Looking at a daily chart WMGI is in a little trouble. It has consistently sold off on heavy volume then rallied on low volume to fail at the key moving averages over and over. This recent breakdown that I missed yesterday makes a good short, with a small rally back to the moving averages. If no rally occurs it might not be worth it.

BBY short

It is obvious looking at some big retails something is not right with the pocket book of americans. BBY had heavy selloffs in January and early March, now we see a breakdown right at the conflection points of the 50/200 dma. A short here could be very rewardable.