Fed Raises Rates Again

For the 10th consecutive time, the Fed has raised rates a quarter of a point. The Fed continues to fight inflation with its gradual steady increases in interest rates. It looks as if there are another two more hikes in store, at least. Best case scenario is seven more hikes from the Fed.

Where do I get that number? Why from Mr. Richard Yamarone of Argus Research Corp. He believes it will be at 5.25% before the Fed declares the fight against inflation is over. That would be great for stocks, if that is the case. Since 1994, everytime the Fed hikes rates the market moves higher and visa versa when the Fed is easing.

The stock market bounced on an increase in volume; not a big bounce, however, and not on a big pickup in volume either. But an increase in volume on a bounce, after a lower volume decline is positive action if we want the market to start to go higher again.

Besides that, stocks were pretty boring today. Small caps lagged again and Big Caps lead. I know it is a common statement but "it remains a market of stocks." There are great stocks out there but not a lot. We shall see what tomorrow brings.

New Swing Longs: UBET WIRE PRM RCOM TFR BTUI SLXP

Longs Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): SYKE OLGR BBD USLM TEC MCF

New Swing Shorts: SNHY PCLN CNO L

Shorts Outperforming Market (down 5% or more): CRYP INPC

ALOHA

Waiting For The FOMC Interest Rate Decision

Nothing has changed today, from Friday. The indexes dropped and volume rolled in lower across the board. Just what you like to see in a normal pullback in an uptrending market.

The first logical support for all the indexes is the 50 day moving average. Since this drop is coming on lighter volume, a nice bounce off that line with a pickup in trade should help give hope that the rally can continue. However, a failure of that average on volume will concur what the recent drops in the leaders (Homebuilders, REITS) have already given--a sell signal. And to be quite honest all of the REITS on daily charts look like short-term crashes. These moves in the past two days, in every stock in the REIT group, are extremely violent to the downside and on heavy volume. Housing slowdown finally??

There is not much more to add to the commentary today. The market drifted lower on light volume, waiting to hear what Mr. Greenspan has to say about inflation, rates, and the economy.

New Swing Longs: MED VC SGRP

Longs Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): BCON!!! MCEL TEC GBND OLGR CPTV ELTK CERS ENTU

New Swing Shorts: SHO ZIPR WCI BMHC and the whole REIT group on low volume bounces to recent breakdowns. Nasty ugly charts everywhere in the REIT group.

Shorts Outperforming Market: INPC ZGEN

ALOHA

Indexes Now in Short-Term Downtrend

Friday confirmed that the recent topping action in individual stocks is signaling for a move down; the SP600 with its 3.8% move lower leads the list. There was negative breadth, all around, and well over 90% of the Industry groups I track were down for the day. That is a poor number.

This could provide a reason for a short-term bounce in the next couple of days. But with all short-term trends being down after such a big run-up from April, more downside action would be welcomed to shake out the new, late longs and create new bases for stocks to breakout of. Another sign of more downside is all the poor looking charts the recent great stocks have turned into. With that too, I am getting a lot more shorts coming up with better risk/reward potential than I have with my longs.

A positive sign that the downtrend might be contained would come in the form of lower volume on the way down. So far, so good, as volume did come in lighter yesterday, for the Nasdaq and NYSE. It seemed as if funds did not dump en mass, and instead focused their selling on the hottest of hot sectors: Homebuilders, Retail, and REITs. The good news is fresh breakouts from first stage bases work well, while breakouts from eratic, sloppy, and late stage chart patterns continue to disappoint after this big run-up from April.

Also one other point: BIDU!!! what is this? 1999-2000. I need more facts before I declare this to be in the bubble category. But it sure does look speculative. YIKES! Stay away, for now, unless you have "inside" information. Which I doubt most of you have.

New Swing Longs: LTON PTG OLGR GBND REDF VSAT TMNG VSAT ASGN DVD. Most of these are very speculative. So keep a good eye on them. Why? Read below.

Longs Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): BCON!!! NRPH CPTV

New Swing Shorts: GKIS TSM GFIG CRYP INPC QSFT ZGEN FHR PSA JOE MAA CQB RWT WPO. Most of the stocks mentioned are REITS. I will not short these boring stocks, but if you do short them it should provide some short term gains.

Disaster Du Joirs of the Week: SCVL PWEI. This is why you watch stocks closely. Even though both BLEW UP, I only got hit with a 4% and a 15% loss respectively. Both dropped over 25% from their highs, but by buying right I ended up with some small bruises and nothing more. They were nice when purchased, now they are trash being taken out. Another great example of why you should never load the boat with smaller less attractive fundamental issues. Cheap stocks always stink, unless they are going up. Cheap stocks are cheap for a reason; they cost what they are worth.

ALOHA and have a great weekend!

Market starts pullback

The pullback I have eluded to may have finally started--It is about time. With the retailers leading the way down, poor breadth, and closing near the lows of the day the indexes looked really weak today. But, all in all, it wasnt that bad of a day. Volume was lower today than yesterday, on the Nasdaq, NYSE, and Dow. However, volume on the SP600 grew as the index lost 1.4%. That is its first distirbution day this month. As the leading index in this rally, it will be important to watch if more of these days pop up to signal if a correction is coming for the index or just a normal pullback.

All trends remain up, since the October 2002 bottom, except the Dow Jones short-term trend which today turned latreal.

New Swing Longs: KOPN SJR ENY CMX NWRE

Longs Outperforming Market: CENT BOOM TRGL

New Swing Shorts:

Slow Market Day

Though it seemed slow, which it was overall, the Nasdaq still traded more shares than yesterday. You could have fooled me, though. Anyways, the markets did not do much today, barely moving .10% up or down. The action in individual stocks however was different today than yesterday. I had to sell down my nicest charts from the rally today and have reduced more positions today that have ran up too much short term.

Small oils were weak today and Gold was strong. Could that mean, with gold rising, that we are going to have inflation? I would think it would start showing up in the data soon, seeing the short and long term bond yields finally start rising. But I am not sure if we are going to get a lot of inflation. At least not the kind seen during the Carter administration. Also, I would think this inflation would cause the Fed to keep hiking rates and that can only be good for stocks. Why? Because, history has shown, since 1993, every time the fed hikes rates stocks rise and when they reduce rates stocks fall. Why? Because the market does the opposite of what you think it is supposed to do.

However, currently, the market is giving poor risk/reward ratio for new positions. Charts are getting sloppy, stocks are slipping a little, and some stocks are going parabolic. This is leaving few stocks at safe buy points. A pullback in the markets would help create good bases for the next round of leaders to break out of. If we will get one, the way this market is acting, I dont know. However, if you must go long now, keep a tight cut loss and dont "load the boat."

New Swing Longs: RGLD ABX ECIL ECTX ANSS ORA

Longs Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): NTES ANX ENG BMD TGE ELOS CTRX GOLD

New Swing Shorts: FRP NLC VNUS WMI PXD

Aloha!

SP600, SP400, RUSSELL Close at HOD

The indexes above closed at the HOD and the NYSE, Nasdaq, and SP500 came very close. Volume increased across the board, a positive sign in an uptrending market. Energy, Metals, Gold, Insurance, and select Medicals were the positive movers today, along with big cap tech. Overall it was a very strong day and there is not a lot of negatives. Unless, you include the small blow ups today (TYC, CNXS, CUTR, etc...) in individual stocks.

Which brings me to my next point. I am seeing some charts getting too extended from their original breakout, along with more minor blowups, than I saw at the beginning of the rally. This makes me cautious on much further upside momentum; but, hey, have I not been saying this for three weeks or so.

No matter, however, you have to go with the trend and the trend is very up. So much up, in fact, that the SP600 and Nasdaq are both up over 100% since the October 2002 bottom. As long as I have charts moving up on strong volume, coming out of sound bases, I will remain bullish. Even though it feels like a pullback is needed.

All trends remain up, since 2002.

New Swing Longs: CPN GOLD NATR GRS GSX ESMC

Swing Longs Outperforming Market (up over 5%): ENG VLFG PWEI TLF BMD CWTR COGT PANL BCON MCEL AMED

New Swing Shorts: IWA MGAM MAS

Aloha!

Low Volume Continues

There, once again, is not much too add to this market after today's session. Biotech, small cap and large cap oil led todays market action with some nice gains. The techs and retails were weak today. Markets remain the same with all trends being up since 2002.

Lots of people keep calling for the markets demise but it is hard to stop momentum no matter how hard you try to talk it down. I am a bit nervous with the amount of small stocks moving higher but I have to remember same thing happened in 2003. Also more stocks trade on the exchanges today than they did 5,10, or 100 years ago.

All trends remain up for all the indexes and until something changes I have to remain bullish. When momentum stalls and we start getting some distribution days on the index then I might listen to the bears case a little harder. But, for now, oil at 62, interest rates, China, terrorism, or whatever it is the bears are worried about does not matter to this market. Therefore, I will continue to ride the trend till the trend reverses and let other people try to predict where we will be a week from now.

New Swing Longs: PWEI TLF BNT SCO ELOS ATLS COGT MNST MCEL VITA LNG ELT PPX

Swing Longs Outperforming Market: XWG BCON GEOI WEL ARD TMY PETS BOOM TALX CTGI SGDE CPTV CUTR CFK ANX NICE IDIX OPMR WVCM TEC VLFG

New Swing Shorts: HRAY VIAC


ALOHA!

Weekend Trades (No Commentary)

No commentary this weekend as the market started a small pullback and did not do much else on Friday.

New Swing Longs: ARD KLAC USNA MRGE SVR MFE

Another Buy Opportunity: SGDE

Positions Outperforming Market (Up 5% or more on the day): MIDD KNDL FORD STEM WEN OPMR NDAQ NGAS NTRI CUTR TGE RT ABP GERN TRGL VDSI ENTU

ALOHA!

Corporate Earnings at All-Time Highs

Oh yeah, the economy sucks. Yeah right! I am so sick of listening to the media establishment always casting doubt on this great market. The consumer confidence numbers, no matter what poll you look at, would make you think we are in a recession. Hardly; the economic numbers look great, jobs look good, GDP is growing faster than our European brothers, the stock market is heating up, and the deficit is shrinking. What more do people want? I know. They want a housing bubble to pop, terrorist to scare us from traveling, and just about anything to make a Republican Whitehouse look terrible. No matter what your politics are, you should not ignore the great stock market right in front of your eyes.

That is my rant for the day.

The SP600 hit all-time highs, corporate America's earnings are hitting all-time profit highs, the SP500 and Nasdaq are at their highest level since summer of 2001, and housing stocks like MTH keep proving the "top" to this housing "bubble" isnt here yet. All reasons the long side is the right side right now.

Whether this market is going to roll over today or next year, I dont care. The most important thing to know is what the market is doing right now and all trends are UP UP UP. This will end one day but not today Thursday the 28th of 2005.

New Swing Longs: VSEC MINI NTGR MDTL PRST CNQR FLR AACC FLML DRAX BLKB BEAS NWD ENI MTSC PLUG CDN

Swing Longs Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): FOXH NTRI ANSI ERS SSNC CHCI DIOD CUTR NUVA SBAC QUIK WEL GTF

New Swing Shorts: DJO TBL HTCH LZB PGI WMI TTMI KWD

Swing Shorts Outperforming Market (up 5% or more): WOLF GMR

Aloha!!

Another Good Day For The Markets

The market continued to flex its muscle on Wednesday, finishing the day higher across the board on an increase in volume. This is what you like to see in an uptrending market. I continue to see biotechs and select medicals outperform the market. The telcommunications sector has also been heating up recently.

My point I want to focus on tonight is Regulation FD. After reading IBD, I got to thinking how much I hate this stupid regulation. No matter what, whoever bought Enron, Global, Tyco, Adelphia, and others, were going to get hurt anyways. Sarbanes Oxley and Reg FD are not going to solve it. There was a time, before Reg. FD, where you could see a chart sell off slightly before the blowup-You still see it today, sometimes. Now what you have are implosions out of nowhere. Just going through my charts tonight, I notice tons of upside breakouts and downside breakouts from consolidation periods. These types of moves gives the investor no safe place to take an entry. If Reg. FD did not exist there would be more of an opportunity to jump on the breakouts before the breakaway gaps. Oh well, looks like government has helped us, once again, by interfering in our free markets.

Bottom line: ABRX!!!! where did Reg. FD and Sarbanes Oxley come into play with this one, for investors????

New Swing Longs: MWP VLFG CTEC BLT JVA HLND GNVC RGEN FON

Swing Longs Outperforming Market (Up 5%+): TGE CERS WVCM RATE GTF XWG TZIX SIRF NGAS QUIK GLW

Disaster DeJour of the Day: ILMN

New Swing Shorts: ENWV IRIS PHLY WCG RCL ROK BUD CAJ BYD

Aloha!

Positive Earnings and More Price Gains

I don't have much to add about the indexes situations. All remain in an uptrend on all time frames. I guess, that is all we need to know. Base building or topping? Whichever one it is, remember to have a great cut loss strategy. But everyday this keeps going up I remind myself of 1994-1995 when the Fed kept raising rates and the market kept moving up. Is history trying to repeat itself again? Naw; it can't be.

New Swing Longs: LAYN CTGI SGDE CMCO APCC AAI CNET TPTH NRPH STFC WVCM

Swing Longs Outperforming the Market Today (Up 5% or more): BCON ELTK ONNN DESC NFLX MDRX DATA

Stocks I Am Watching For Right Entry: PLUG

New Swing Shorts: CBU AGR AUDC BBX OMM GMR SCSS

Not sure why I keep going short or attempt to. With a market this strong, going short is just the wrong play. Your best bet is to wait till the market rolls over then go short. Going long is the play, right now.

Aloha

Markets Pullback

It is nice to see the markets start to take a rest. After this very strong bullish phase of the market, there has been a rash of uber-bullish talk recently. Even though, the terrorist talk does add a "wall of worry" to climb, the majority of market talk has been, recently, crowded to the bull side.

Nothing changes, long term or short term, all the indexes are still up. However, a move down tomorrow will throw the Nasdaq into a short-term downtrend. All other trends, on the other hand, remain long and strong.

New Swing Longs: LABL THRX FLSH TRAD HYC NFLX CHU

Swing Longs Outperforming the Market: TGE FORD CERS XWG VIVO ENG NGPS BCON ABP ANX DESC WHR AWGI OFI GTF

Swing Longs Worth Watching For An Entry: MED

New Swing Shorts: DRYS TSU TRI GEPT

Swing Shorts Outperforming Market: JAKK JNPR EMAG(setting up again)

I never give my sells or covers, since I do not get paid for this. However, a free look at the stocks I sold for profits today should give you an idea of things I look for in taking profits. ONNN DSTI ANGO FRGO

Aloha!!

Me and my girlfriend 

The SmallCaps Is Where The Action Was At.

You think the market was boring on Friday? Wrong. The SmallCaps were up 1.5%, while the other indexes did basically nothing.

I have been enjoying my weekend so am keeping this short.

New Swing Longs: RES NOBL WFT NGAS ANX VIVO RIG GW NOV RT TEU YRK AX REY CVV SRLS EXPO

Swing Longs Outperforming Market: GEOI ABLE GNSS INFA ICON ULTI CIB XWG VLCM MRTN PHCC HHGP ABP VPI EMKR THE

This is why you play the individual charts and try not to worry about all the noise, whether it is bearish or bullish. I do not have enough money to keep up with all of these wonderful stocks that are providing gains that are just plain beating the market averages this year.

I just finished re-reading (for the 6th time; 5 times in last 5 yrs) "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin LeFebvre. Thank God I did. Words written in 1923 could not be more true today than they were then.

Aloha!

Distribution Day; Sell the News

Stocks finally started their retreat that has been in the workings for a week--the negative breadth, lower new highs, VIX 10-yr lows, high bullishness, and speculative ugly charts breaking out. The SP600 fell the hardest losing almost 1.7% and the other indexes faired just as poorly. Volume climbed across the board, as stocks retreated. This gave the indexes their fourth distribution day in the past four weeks. Pauses are normal in a good bull market, even though they sometimes look like something worse. This pause is probably just a short term top. No matter though, having a sound strategy to protect profits will keep you alive if the markets start to really pullback.

New Swing Longs: MRTN OXPS KONG DATA OFI SJR VPI USLM VRNT FDG ENER IDBE

Longs Outperforming Market Today: XWG ERS CHRT STTS BTJ

New Swing Shorts: CTAC IGT MDCO JAKK LRCX MNC

Shorts Outperforming Market Today: VRSN

Four Year Highs For Nasdaq and SP 500

Well, they did sell the earnings but what followed was something I was not expecting at all. Stocks had a reversal around mid-day after Greenspan's speach leading the indexes to close near the HOD and volume surged across the board. Nasdaq volume was up almost 20% higher than the day before. That is the kind of action you like to see during uptrending markets. The Semiconductor and Biotech stocks definitely were the outperforming groups today with many stocks up a lot. AMGN, GENZ, CELG will show you the strength in the Biotech group.

GOOG reports earnings tomorrow--lets see how that goes.

Even though I have been feeling bearish recently doesnt mean my portfolio isnt still dominated by longs killing the market averages. I remain long as long as the trend is up, however I do not like how everyone I know is bullish and expects higher prices going into the end of the year. A healthy pullback or long term sideways movement would help work off the "uber-bulls" overly optimistic sentiment. Another sign is this: I went bullish in APRIL/MAY after being bearish the entire year. Most people during the Apr/May bottom said I was wrong and the market would soon head down again. WRONG!! Now those same people who were bearish during the bottom and this entire move up are now turning into bulls (not all, but enough). This market is a momentum train that is very dangerous to fight against, so going long is the only prudent method right now, still.

I still think we are near a short-term top and think the speculative nature of stocks with earnings reports widely spoken about helps reafirm my feelings. We will see soon if the market will continue to move higher-which it does when rates rise-or wants a pullback to work off some of this bullish sentiment. I mean look at the number of stocks making 52 week highs compared to last week. That is a negative divergence.

Good Luck!

New Swing Longs: JUPM PLAB LRCX SMA RIO EOC ORBK VSEA DTAS IMDC SMSC CPSI GTF ACAD

Swing Longs Outperforming Today: STJ NGPS VTAL FOXH DCEL IDIX EMKR ASTSF BMRN HHGP ASML ICON CKCM GMXR

Aloha

Hard To Stop Momentum

Market keeps chugging along. I still see signs that we are near a short-term top. No matter what, respect the individual chart patterns and have a good profit/cut loss plan.

Not much to add, except the night was full of earnings reports. We will see what tomorrow will bring. I have been expecting the rally that happened leading up to tonight. But now we wait to see how the market reacts tomorrow.

New Swing Longs: FILE CUTR LSS ANSI WITS ORA CTTY HHGP NSIT ASTSF

Swing Longs Outperforming Today: DESC GMXR LGBT BCON GIGM PETS ADCT OPMR APT BSMD CKCM AWA VTAL XWG

New Swing Shorts: QLTI CECO WB SXT ACMR

Lower New 52-Week Highs, Poor Breadth, and Earnings Season

Earnings are coming up so we will see how the market responds. For now with all the poor numbers coming out on the breadth and new highs side, my inclination is to expect the market to go down. However, many charts still look great and as you can see from prior post there were some nice ones today. I take it as a signal market needs to pullback here and consolidate for a move higher. If the charts do breakdown that assumption will be ripped to shreds.

Get ready for earnings. I wonder if it will bring some higher volatility to the markets?

Aloha

Market Commentary Will Be Later

New Swing Longs: FPU NWY WHR LH APT

New Swing Shorts: CDWC VRSN GDT HHS C EYET

Swing Longs Perfoming Well Today: IPII GERN BDCO DSTI ANGO CPTV CWTR CIB OIIM AWA EMKR IDIX LMS BSMD

Swing Shorts Perfoming Well Today: BAC DGII

VIX Hits A 10 Year Low

Where did all the volatility go? I wonder if the VIX can break 10? Who cares, at 50 or 10 it is all good. Longs will either rise fast with volatile movements or they will go smoothly up-steady and strong. 1999 was fun and the money was quick and very rewarding. But slow markets are much nicer, if you ask me. The relaxing pace makes it easy to hold onto winners longer than I did back in those days. No matter what, having a cut loss and a method of taking profits is more important than "picking" or "selecting" great stocks to purchase long or short. Bottom line: I like the VIX at 10.33. That doesnt mean I think it is going to stay there much longer though. :)

Friday was a dull day for the markets, as volume contracted across the board. I am getting about the same amount of longs as short candidates in my scans so I am wondering if we are going to take a rest here. I really think we need to because some short term damage has been done to stock charts and for the pattern to look correct again a basing period needs to happen. If it goes straight back up the charts will havve a historically good chance of reversing their immediate upthrust this late in the bull cycle. These moves are called V-bottom moves. Gary B. Smith of Realmoney.com describes them really well in his commentary. Biotech, Insurance, Semis, Medical-Dentist, Genetics, Retail-Consumer Elec, Telecom Wireless Equipment, and Internet Content are the sectors seeing recent inflows as a sector rotation is occuring from the Oils, Metals, and HMO/Hospitals.

New Longs: MIDD CVD PTA NEOL ALXN ANDS WYE AOC AGO

Longs Making Strong Moves Today: HLTH BMRN CSU

New Shorts: ARLP HOTT HITK DGII RMBS SCHL BEZ IHP

Shorts Making Strong Moves Today: EMAG

I can not stress how important it is to short at the right moment very close to a previous resistance level, imediate break of support, or a moving average. This market is not a bear market, it is still a bull, the best shorts come after the market starts a downtrend. I know that is hard to believe. BUT IT IS TRUE!

Aloha

Small Caps Weak, SP 500 4-Yr. Highs, Negative Breadth, And Too Many Bulls

The SP hit new highs for the year. Yeah! right? Sort-of. Small Caps sold off today on a pickup in volume-Its 3rd distribution day past two weeks-but Semis and Bios led. Was that great for the market? No. When Big Caps start outperforming the smaller leaders, the markets are usually trying to put in a top. If it is short term or long term top, I do not know. I have a feeling it is probably short, though. The SP 600 is up 15.3% since the rally started April/May so a rest and/or pullback is definitely warranted at this point in time.

The rotation into Big Caps is evident in my scans, as they are the best looking charts at the moment. Most of the Small Cap stocks showing up in my scans are extended or just too wild in price action to be considered longs. As that happens there are few new buys and it is a great place to take some more profits. Not only that, since the market is looking toppy, with the recent frothy action, I have sold ALL laggards. Better to be early and book a small loss than be sorry and not have a stake to trade later on. The small oil plays on the other hand as Jim Cramer says "cmmonnn baackk." I am not ready to take profits in these guys yet. You know the ABLE GEOI DSTI etc. I have taken some off the table past two weeks. But the majority of my position is still long and strong.

One final parting blow. The AAII survey has only 14% bears! Short term top anyone? BTW, everyone can go back to May 4 and see that was the day I got long this market. I am still a bull but I am starting to see more signs that a short top is coming into play. With all my talk of how I am bullish longer term, I am building quite a larger short position than I thought I would have by tomorrow morning.

Account looks like this at the moment: 40% long, 25% short, 35% cash. Last week: 80-100% long, 0-5% short, and 0-20% cash. I wonder if this is telling me something more than I think it is???? I mean, the more I think about it, 14% bears!!! Everyone must know about this rally now, it seams like.

New Swing Longs: CRED ELTK ONXS ONNN

New Swing Longs On A Pullback: CRM

Longs That Did Great Today: STEM SPNC

New Swing Shorts: NXTP NVDA SNDA MAR HNP EMAG PRX GDP

Reversal of the Week: CCC (only lost 8%, but look at the reversal today)
Aloha!

Boring Day, Inside Day, and Some Smallcap Weakness

Really a pretty boring day overall for the markets as volume rolled in lower across the board. This suggest it's consolidation time, per my comments yesterday, for the indexes. The smallcaps and midcaps were weaker but nothing to get freightened about. I sold down some longs that showed some great gains on some charts that look a little parabolic for the short term. Doesnt mean I sold them all but I did pair them down by my usual 1/4 sells. Besides that, not much else to talk about. Unless you want to talk about Bernie Ebbers and WCOM. For me I have heard enough on CNBC to last me a lifetime.

New Swing Longs: TOA DXYN OPMR(own since January, but was not writing blog then) AWA ESLR ASML NTRS ADCT AWRE

Swing Longs That Did Great Today: ENG KNDL ILMN OPMR DRRX WEL DESC CCC DCEL STEM VASC

New Swing Shorts: HMA UHS LGF CRAI WCN. The whole medical sector took a hit today. If there are low volume rallies and subsequent high volume breakdowns in these stocks they will make great shorts: LSCP HCA HITK CYH ABT SRZ. But if this happens dont overstay your welcome. These stocks have GREAT GREAT GREAT fundamentals so they will not fall 50%. If they do crack, 10% would be the most I would look for in these. Dont be greedy!

Mixed Trading On Mixed Volume

Nasdaq lead the way today with the SP following. Volume on the SP was higher than day before, switching roles with the Nasdaq in recent days. The Smallcap and Midcaps have hit new highs and continue to produce the best stocks out there in this rally.

The market took a little breather going into the close but did not sufer a lot of damage. Two stocks I was long showed some classic reversal signs; one starts with BO the other IP. And other stocks today had some short term parabolic moves so I had to take some money off the table today. These two scenarios along with the lack of quality breakout or high volume candidates helps me come to the conclusion a short term pullback is about to get started. I would always like to be wrong, when I see this happening. But at least I am ready, if it does.

New Swing Longs: NSS PPC TAYC MPWR MMSI ILMN SUG AVTR ACP

New Swing Longs If There Is A Pullback: CNVR IRIX

Longs That Looked Great Today: TALX ENG FSL CTRX ABP ENY BCON GEOI ABLE WEL DENN STEM RADS PRLS TGE BBSI

New Swing Shorts: WEN NCR SGR BNK AMWD

Aloha

Two and A Half Month Rally Continues

Volume increased on the Nasdaq and was mixed with the SP 500, 600, Russell, and the Dow. Market continues to act very healthy and there is still no reason to be bearish. But today was the second day I could not find more than 10 great charts for new longs. All of my good longs continue to act well but new longs the past two days, during this rally, have not been plentiful.

Read yesterday's market commentary for more depth on the above subject.

New Longs: IPII ELOS UNF ERS VAS MOT NSTK MIDD BBSI MBWM

New Long After Pullback: MCRL

Longs Still Looking Good: DSTI DCAI BOOM ANGO ENG JMDT HITK MSCC AMED RATE JMDT DCEL UPCS APCS CPTV GNSS RBAK PETS LMS MCF

New Shorts: CRYP WPTE PCLN

Aloha

9:42 HST---------Two more longs for swing trades: XWG WEL

Russell 2000, SP 600, SP 400 All-Time Highs

What a market!

The Russell, Midcap, Smallcap all made all-time highs and the Nasdaq on Friday gave a "Golden Cross" signal. What is a golden cross? It is when the 50 dma moves above the 200 dma on an increase in volume. That is as bullish a signal on an index as you can get, besides after a long downtrend being up 5% on a huge increase in volume (Oct. 2002).

Bottom line is this market is STILL STILL STILL very healthy. I have not fought the advance so why are you? All day Friday--besides some good traders I know--I heard how this is going to fail when the momentum to the upside stops. You know what kind of people say that? The people who were shorting the indexes off the London terrorism and the people who were not long enough going into this 1-2% rally in the indexes. To them I say your arguments are pure malarchy. Even my favorite commentator on Realmoney is currently bearish-James DePorre. Well, terrorism doesnt scare me anymore, as it is a fact of life till we can eradicate these murderers. Just like the bears dont scare me when I have a lot of bullish charts on my scan. I say bring on the bears, cause there is too many half-ass bulls out there. If we could convert more bulls to bears as this uptrend moves along, that would be great. If we dont, be ready to cut your losses.

The indexes all rallied from 1 to 2% (Russell2k up 1.98%) across the board, with some of the indexes breaking short-term resistance. Some other key technical signs I have noticed is that the SOX (Philly Semi Index) 5 week modified moving average has crossed the 200 week simple moving average (first time since crossing down in 2001). The last time the SOX did that was in 1998 and it led to huge winners in the semiconductor field. As I have tons of Semiconductor stocks with nice charts that have already offered me some nice gains, I feel history is what??? Repeating itself.

The caveat with all of this though is that it does seem to me there was not enough panic last week. I know the put/call got over 1.0 on Thursday morning, indicating short-term capitulation, but still there was not enough fear to wash out the weak hands in-my-opinion. But what do I tell people about opinions in the market? I tell them, who cares? The market sure as heck does not. Until the market sells off 2% with a big spike in volume, I will remain bullish.

Indexes:
Long term (Oct 2002): Uptrend
Intermediate term (Aug 2004): Uptrend
Sub-Intermediate term (Jan 2005): Down to Latteral
Short term (Past month): Uptrend (sp600, mid400, russell, nasdaq), Latteral (sp500, dow)

New Longs: ANGO PRWT FICC CEM NUS SYGR RADN

Longs Still Looking Good: ENG CHCI NGPS SCVL IBN ASR RTSX RATE JMDT LMS AIX GIGM PANL SIRI RBAK INTU

New Shorts: MHS

Aloha!

YOU GOTTA LOVE THIS MARKET

Resilient. This market took the terrorist attacks in London very poorly in premarket hours and as more info came in began to bottom; off to the races, we were, for the rest of the session.

Volume rose across the board and the tails in the Dow, SP 600, SP500 charts show how beautiful the reversals were. The Nasdaq was the super strong index today. Last night before I took my quick nap, NQs were down 41. Just awesome, the come back.

Market Indexes: Long term (Oct 2002) uptrend, Intermediate term (Aug 2004) uptrend, sub-intermediate term (January 2005) downtrend, and Short term (last month) latteral.

That is what is happening in the market, currently. Predicting the future is impossible, so I dont know what is going to happen next. But the market held up really well today in light of terrorist attacks and there are still good charts out there. Plus I went through my short scan and can not find any new shorts to add to the ones already put on. Still volume was much lighter than I expected, so there was not a real sense of fear in the air. Some negatives, some positives, some sideways action.

New Longs: CHCI GR ENY AEZ CCC MFLX INTU ININ

Longs Still Looking Good: ASEI COGT IBN ICON DCEL RBAK THQI ABP BSMD

New Shorts: Oddly none!

Aloha

Terrorism In London

Dont panic at open. Do not take new longs or shorts at open.

A Negative Reversal/ Divergences In Indexes

The nasdaq barely gave back 1/2 of its gains from yesterday, however, the Dow gave back all its gains and then some to break through support. Volume rose across the board, marking small distribution days. This marked the third distribution day for the Nasdaq in the past 4 weeks, and second for the SP 600 since June 7

It is normal in uptrending markets to see distribution days. It is what happens afterwards that is important. No matter what happens, have a game plan to cut losses and only buy the best stocks in strong sectors.

There was some crazy action today as the indexes made intraday lows, then intraday highs, and then reversing again to land near the lows. This action normally is a precursor to a move down, after an uptrend.

I sold down some longs today that showed big profits past couple of days and have been cutting some longs that reversed today. I was able to raise my cash level and am looking for some weakness in the very short term.

Earnings season is coming up and a lot of charts with those big uptrends might have already priced in good earnings. So if a company doesnt beat its numbers, I am sure it will get punished.

New Swing Longs: EPAY RBAK GERN EML

Stocks Looking Good Still: ENG ABP TRGL

New Swing Shorts: BC PDCO ZOLL ADEX HMC DLP IHP RI BWLD

Remember when shorting, to short as close to the moving averages or support levels as possible and never let a short go against you more than 5%. I set alerts on my IB platform to alert me to the best risk/reward level.

Aloha

SP Smallcap 600 New Yearly High

All indexes rose across the board, on an increase in volume. That is not saying too much, considering the holiday weekend. But across the board excellent action in the indexes, including a new yearly high for the SP Smallcaps. I wonder where the action has been?

I have been away from computer most of the day so have to keep it short. Bottom line, this market looks alright. Especially that SP Small Cap 600.

New Swing Longs: SPN ATMI MTCT HOS EEEE PRAI ECR LMNX SBTV NOVA RPI

New Swing Shorts: LXK NXTP CSGS(short at 17.50--too extended currently)

Aloha

Happy Fourth Of July

Today is a day for celebration!

Go hang out with family or friends!

New Swing Longs: EAC THE BTJ MCF CRED GIGM CNET

New Swing Shorts: APD

Aloha!

Alan Greenspan...When Does His Term End?

Just joking, of course....I know when it ends.

The market is looking weaker and weaker but I still have plenty of good looking longs so I am not going to get too worried here. It is becoming obvious we might need to look for around 4% Fed Funds Rate to complete the cycle. I am not sure, but it looks like Alan is going after another bubble. This time, housing.

Whatever he does, it doesn't matter, just have great rules to protect yourself and your profits. No matter what, newbies, cut your losses at 5 to 7%, if your initial position goes against you. When you expect something to work in this kind of market environment and it doesn't, it is time to get out and ask questions later. A key set of sell rules will protect your profits and keep your losses small so you can keep coming back day after day.

New Swing Longs: AMED HITK REXI LNG ASEI CKH SKS BONT (another buy opportunity: RATE CAND RWY)

New Swing Shorts: PSRC MMM CBD

Aloha!

Confusing Day Overall (Not Good Not Bad)

The markets were very dull (less than 10 point move nasdaq intraday) and volatile intraday, making no progress that helps us analyze anything differently than we did yesterday.

I guess we wait till Alan sings his tune, then we can get back to worrying about something else.

All in all, a weird day. I had many new longs act well then, on the other hand, had many that reversed or stalled on HUGE volume. That is very negative. When breakouts start failing and reversing on heavier volume than the breakout, you have weakness in the market. Also, a lot of gold charts came up on my scans today and are near or breaking out of good sound bases. Not sure if that is good or bad for market. Do you? However, so many of my longs still look good and are acting well that all I can say is Huh?. Whatever happens, I am ready.

New Swing Longs: IMGC ABX GMRK ORA PANL ALTI IVN AWRE

Swing Long Positions With New Entry: Not posting this tonight. Too many. When you buy any breakout in this kind of environment you want to make sure you buy within the 5% pivot point of the top of the base and cut your losses when you are wrong. Just a reminder!

New Swing Shorts: SIVB CBRL MTLG PLUS PKZ

Aloha

Too Much Action In Individual Stocks

I have to be honest, I hope we are in a 1966-1982 kind of stock market. That way all the people that are calling for moon shots and crashes will wash out. I will never understand why people try to predict the future and ignore what the current action of the market is telling them.

Well I for one will not predict the future. I will just tell you the facts. Today was a good day for the indexes, especially the small cap and mid cap indexes. Volume was heavier than yesterday and SURPRISE a lot of stocks broke out of very sound bases. So all the negative people out there, that are not making money and instead are blaming the market, it is time to grow up and get with the long program. You should never be bullish or bearish. Just have positions that reflect current mood in market. If you follow the trend I guarantee you will outperform all the "value" investors and the "short" traders.

New Longs: GMXR PRAA RMD ORCC AMG AACC WSSI SIRI INFA BMRN ULTI CHCO ACC RBA

Longs giving ANOTHER good buy op if grabbed at pivot point: DRRX DENN CYBS SYKE RATE RWY TARR

I swear for the life of me, with charts like that, I have no clue why SO MANY PEOPLE are bearish.

There is always a Bull market somewhere in some sector.

Aloha!

Updated Swing Longs and Possible Swing Shorts

Indexes did nothing that inspired me to write about. So with that, if you want to know what I am thinking just read the last 5 or so post.

Swing Longs: EENC PCBC MHX PUMP CTCH CERS LTC

Postions with additional new entry: STJ TALX TPE TARR

Swing Shorts: SBNY IVC TSN BTH VMSI

Aloha

Friday Was Nasty Too But...

On Thursday and Friday I started to trim longs and put on some shorts. I am still holding around 45% of account in long positions but I am starting to get lots of short candidate charts. But now all of sudden everyone I talk to thinks we are heading into a recession. Boy oh boy, how opinions change so fast nowadays. I am starting to think the 1966-1982 market could be repeating itself. Cause from what I have learned from old time traders is that this happened a lot during that time. People thought we were going to the moon after an uptrend started, then it would finish. Then in the downtrend, shorts claimed control and shouted from the rooftops that all hell was breaking loose. Oddly, nothing happend the entire time. Just an up and down market like the one we are in now. However I am hoping for the 1994-1995 scenario but whatever happens is cool with me. Up or down or sideways, whatever. There is always a bull market somewhere, as Jim Cramer says. Currently it is oil, medical, and select technology sectors. Still a lot of good looking charts out there.

After the rebalancing of the Russell indexes Friday, my charts were so scewed that I had to look at the intraday volume stats to confirm if moves in these stocks were throughout the day or just EOD (end of day) rebalancing. Then after further thought I have decided not to initiate any new positions....almost. Three or four of these longs are too juicy to pass up, rebalancing or not. For the other short and long candidates, I have decided not to take another look at them, thanks to the Russell's rebalancing.

New longs: VTAL STJ CTRX IDIX TMY --all medical and one oil

Add on to original positions: ASTM STEM TIV TRGL GET DENN

Aloha!

Swing long and shorts

I am going to raise more cash tomorrow in my NYSE stocks. The nasdaq stocks I own still look good to really strong. NYSE sucks!

New Swing Longs (not so new): ACU HLEX KCS BRCM XRTX NICE IMNY BT

New Swing Shorts: BGC AZ JAKK HSC LUV AVID TNM NX

Remember, with shorts, you have to not just open a short at the open tomorrow. You have to either wait for a pullback (err...pullup) to key moving averages or the old high before entering the position. That is, of course, unless it is less than 5% from the ideal short opportunity. Then, duh, you short that ticker symbol.

KEEP GOING PISTONS

Aloha

Distribution Day. My Guard Is Up.

Well, amazingly, after analyzing my charts last night and looking harder I noticed some small problems (hence, my late night post yesterday) with some of my longs and did notice some shorts presenting themselves as good candidates. Today has now confirmed that NOW (not the past month and a half) we must be on-guard for lower prices. By habit I have sold 1/4 of all positions that have shown good gains or stocks whose charts have slightely faltered.

All indexes fell over 1% on a BIG increase in volume, cutting through some minor support levels. However you slice it, it was nasty! A 1% plus drops on a big increase in volume does happen quite often in uptrending markets but if you get one or two more in rapid succession in the next week you can be certain the upside momentum is over and the market could fall into consolidation or worse yet start a new leg down. Whatever happens be ready to have tight cut losses and stay disciplined.

$60 oil can only do nothing but negative things to the market. And the second negative about this bull rally, in hindsight, that we have had since May is that even though every trader I know thought we would not go much higher or were about ready to crash, every fund manager that I know was almost too bullish. Including me. The bullish/bearish newsletter writers report that I follow in Investors Business Daily showed that as the rally went higher bulls kept coming on board. That is not what you see at a hard bottom. And also bears never exceded bulls in the survey at the May bottom.

I will be back to find the diamonds in the rough on the long side and some shorts that I might like to put on, as I significantly raised my cash position at the close and will continue to raise in the morning.

GO PISTONS

Please read the post below this first

No matter how I see the market shaping up, it doesnt mean we can not pullback a little here. We have gone up for long enough to expect a shakeout of some sorts. But this current basing/consolidation looks very good in every index chart out there. Still one more time for clarity, it doesnt mean we wont pullback.

And I guess I do like some stocks for a short swing: ZMH CVG NNI ELK add that to QSII on 6/2.

Also since I have had so many stocks working out beyond my expectations. I now will show you one of my longs that failed badly today: DHC. I wasnt long much more than 2% of this in the first place and after it breached the 50 dma on 6/20 and made a lower close than the close of the day I bought it 3/4 was sold already. But still seeing that loss on the other 1/4 is still UGLY! Hey it happens. Sometimes the casino gives away a lot of money, but over time they definitely come out ahead.

Now read the post below this one.

ALOHA

A very quiet, slow, and strong market.

Why am I not getting any good short opportunities? I was asking myself this question today, seeing is how some people I know have mentioned we might be churning here instead of getting ready to resume the rally. I studied their opinion and after reading past notes in my personal diary, I have come to the conclusion that this is base building to move on to higher ground.

In the past when after a rally we start moving sideways and churning I will get very few stocks showing excellent entry points, unlike now, and always have been able to find shorts. Since I still am finding good long patterns and no good short patterns that is why, for now, I in no way think that we are churning. Plus we have not even hit new highs for the year yet in the Nasdaq. Churning usually happens after a new high is hit. And one final point, volume would be much much higher, if we were in fact churning. Look at volume on Nasdaq on 2000, 2004, and 2005 tops.

New Swing Longs: OPWV ADEX ESC SCI MTCT HRAY SOLD GET MOT LFL FTEK EURO HSTM

Current Holdings Offering New Entries: DCAI KNDL THOR ASR TAYC RYAAY JMDT RATE SIRF NICE CFK

Another Sideways Day

Summer time is a very uninteresting time for the markets. But there is always stocks that will move on good volume anyways, so dont let the boring less than 50 point moves in the DJIA put you to sleep.

I have been busy dealing with personal matters, recently. I apologize for the short blog entries.

New or Add-on Swing Long Holdings: CETV CYBS ASR JNPR SYKE BMR NR RWY ABP SPNC WAB UPCS. Some of these longs are extended, so slight pullback will provide a safer risk/reward ratio.

Another Interesting Day. It Is Never Boring

Even though I have been selling some longs I still am finding plenty of new ones to replace the others. This is the kind of action you like to see during a strong uptrend. Another positive sign was the intraday support we got on the indexes. We keep making these very nice tail patterns (look at an SP500 daily since May) on the indexes. That is what I like to see.

Swing Long Positions: KEYW WLT WAB COGT MCEL TMY OIIM PLL UPCS CVTX SSTR TAYC

Longs for Monday

MTH CHCI MDRX PTG E ENR PRGS WAB NCTY WEL VRTX CMRG ABP NR CVTX ALEX UPCS BCON MSCC FLOW BMD LQI IVX CTSH UDR BMR LAF TPE AIB SPNC CMD AIX TGE MCC AMS GMXR FCEA

Way too many.............Has to be a bull market.

Another Up Day

If you read my post last night, today should not have been that surprising with the markets positive close. Candles that print like that on a daily in an uptrend is a beautiful thing.

The markets were up today on a nice increase in volume, just like yesterday. I dont have much new to add. It was just another good up day in a bullish market. I believe there have been 3 key reversal days in the Nasdaq since the May 4 bottom. That is what you see in bull markets. Once again only longs tonight, because I cant find those high reward/low risk shorts.

New Longs: ASFI HOLX WSTC DSL XWG ACR WTW PHCC EFII WAB APCS SIRI CHRT

Postions owned giving new buy opportunities: PRGS VIVO FOXH GIGM TXCC TERN NTES CY THQI WCI BMD UGP

A Very Bullish Intraday Reversal

The indexes opened higher, went lower, then higher again to close with gains on a 20% increase in volume from the day before. The indexes, on a daily chart, has made a "tail engulfing" pattern in price today. That is a very bullish sign. It shows that bears tried to take control by taking the market lower than yesterdays lows then the buyers stepped up and bought/bid it up to the old highs. The other positives is the quiet sideways action which is working off the overbought condition with time not price, all the beautiful longs I am getting on my scans, and the still negative sentiment (though not nearly as bearish as it was) I see in chat rooms. One other thing is I have a short scan and it is still finding almost zero low risk/high reward short setups. That is so bullish it is ridiculous. I should still be getting a handful here and there. But I am not.

New Swing Longs: HOS SYNM TIV WCI BABY THQI DENN CWP ICA UGP

Postions holding setting up new buys: SCVL CIB THE FOXH ASTM TERN DESC AIR BCON UNWR ILMN BMD GIGM PTMK SYKE STEM ARRS

All the stocks under "positions holding setting up new buys" have all been mentioned in this blog. To find them look at the chart and find a high volume up day on heavy volume then look at that date in the blog and you can see there it is.

ALOHA

Boring Day for Indexes, but Exciting Day for Longs

The market is doing its normal summer thing, but in the meantime there are a lot of small stocks still acting very bullish.

I am now long over 60 stocks and short 1 (QSII today) which tells me that even though market is going nowhere it probably wont be for long. Which means, I expect an upside breakout.

My commentary will be short today as a south swell has hit Maui.

New Swing Longs: TDY DSCM KSU SDAY ISRL STV AMS

Postions owned creating new buying op (SOME NEED PULLBACKS): SMTS LSCP DO CLHB XXIA ENG BCON STEM GNSS DESC RGCI SPSS UHAL

You Can Tell It Is Summer Time

Living on Maui, it becomes quite obvious when school is out and summer time has started. For further confirmation, today's action in the market proves it. Looking at the past 20 summer months in the market it becomes clear volume slows down, but the markets rise a lot of times. Goes to prove another thing; never short a dull market.

The market wasn't really that dull it was just that my scans were. Most of the charts that popped up today are stocks I am already long just creating another buy opportunity. As for new longs this was the slowest day since the beggining of the rally, for my scans.

New Longs: SGK--small pullback needed, GWR, MCEL--spec small position long

Positions giving new buy points: HCA CLHB XXIA NGS DO PETS RADN LMS

Have a great night.
ALOHA

My Weekend Thought: I don't have enough money to take all these LONGS!!!

All I have to say, this weekend, after looking at the charts in my personal scans after the past week is...we went down????

You could have fooled me.

Even though the indexes moved down to sideways for the week, it was a great week for individual stocks in my portfolio. I am finding it impossible to keep up with all the great stocks popping up on my scans. Therefore, I am leaving money on the table by not having enough to participate in this wonderful rally that started Arpil/May.

I recently cut my long exposure but after this weekend it look like I will be 200% long again. There are just too many individual stocks making large moves. DSTI ABLE GEOI are perfect recent examples.

Once again, there are tons of longs to choose from, after Friday's bell.

NEW swing longs: RCRC DO RRC NGS PETS SCUR DESC

Already taken swing longs setting up again: USLM JDO OMR BLUD BCON PLUM SKS ARMHY

LWAY is also a great stock that broke out on huge trade Friday. It definitely needs to pullback to around 13.50 to make a safe long.

Aloha, Have a great weekend, and I will be back on Monday!

Long Swing Trades

USLM KEP BDCO DESC ILMN ENTU NSM LBTYA LSI TRGL ARMHY WEN PLUM DSTI

Extended and need a pullback for safe entry: ILMN ENTU DSTI

Have a great night

Aloha

Despite pullback, Bulls still look in control

The indexes rallied today with a pickup in volume (although slightly). My market thesis, as long as Greenspan doesnt raise rates three to four more times, remains the 1994 to 1995 market scenario. If Greenspan does something that stupid, who knows, maybe 66-82 markets. Whatever. Just play the trend.

Did you see the trend today on DSTI BDCO GEOI MXC ABLE. Today was one of my best days since a day in April 2000 (I've had three days like this, the past month or so). The stocks were up 60, 30, 17, 21, and 7 percent. DSTI has been written about in my blog on April 21 and 27. On the 27th or soon after, I commented on how it was the prettiest and most properly constructed out of all my longs. Today, I sold 1/4 of DSTI, MXC. GEOI and BDCO, I still have all of original positions due to super strong and pretty chart patterns. ABLE took a quarter off table a while ago, but still have rest.

And it is not like that is all. I am long a lot of stocks, still, that have beautiful uptrends.

The market is acting very healthy, still, and there are just too many nice charts to not play this uptrend. We are either topping (doubt it) or have much further to go.

I just hope Greenspan stops with another rate hike or two.

I will be back later with more longs cause God knows I am getting a lot of candidates in my scans.

Aloha.

Trimming some longs and 1966-1982 History

I have been cutting some long exposure the past two days, but at the same time buying some stocks too. Even though I think the market has further to run, a pullback is needed as I have been saying for a week or so.

I read an interesting article in IBD today about this market maybe being like the 1966-1982 market. If that is the case the article showed all the leading stocks and how they performed during all the uptrend bull rallies along the 16 year consolidation.

The point I think it makes is no matter what you think of the market, just play the trend and make money.

Some of the winners were:
66-68--Digital Equip. (351%), Milton Bradley (369%)
71-73--McDonalds (438%), Winnebego (377%)
75-77--Waste Manag. (900%), Houston Oil (980%)
80-81--WMT (966%), Southwest Air (269%)

I love history!!

More "buying" time needed during consolidation

For such a "weak" market, the longs that I have in my portfolio are acting really well. Why do I say weak? Because in all the chatrooms that I monitor everyone thinks this market has topped and is ready to make new lows SOON.

Well, I doubt that. To get my opinions please read yesterdays post.

I have a headache from a surfing injury (10 stiches) so sorry for the late post.

New longs for swing: VIVO--pullback, COHR--again, BFAM--cut loss w/ 50dma break, MXC--poke this crazy stock, SSNC--again, nice b/o, ADVNB--3 day breakout, FOXH--again, 34.25 cut loss, WFR--pullback, ENTU--again, VRTX--cut loss 12.75

Aloha

Pullback welcomed

Today's intraday reversal was nasty, without a doubt. The bulls (me) have been getting a little too excited and a pullback like todays was a wake up call to be more cautious. I was looking for dip buyers to come in the last hour. That did not happen.

Today's reversal on heavier volume is nasty but is it enough to sell all long positions. Absolutely not. I still have most of my longs acting really well but did raise more cash today on some of my laggards. One reversal day does not make this a top. We will have to see if there are more down days on an increase in volume in the indexes and stocks start breaking key supports, before I get bearish. Remember, I like to follow the trend, no matter how scary one day can be. Which, btw, did not scare me too much today.

I saw a lot more bears start calling the top today which signals to me this rally still has some legs to go probably. People are still very bearish after the whole move up since April/May bottom, in the chatrooms I montior.

While they will continue their bearish stance, I will continue to make money on the long side as they are still presenting the best charts to play.

As weak as today seemed, oddly enough, one of the strongest sectors showing up in my scan of great charts today is ELECTRONICS. I would have figured with the nasdaq down today, they would not have performed well. But they did along with MEDICAL.

New Long Position Swings: RCKY COHR RVSN SGMS API ARMHY MXO SSNC CAND

Aloha

Besides the LONGS KILLING IT, nothing new at all

GFIG TGE BDCO made my Monday, LOL.

Nothing new about today's market. It looked like consolidation, especially with the lower volume. If you want to know how I see the market, read the past 5 or so entries. That should keep you up to date.

Surprise surprise...longs continue to work

Longs: TGE SRDX ELOS CENT CLFC HTRN NCTY BDCO NGPS AMRI CTRP PACT ERS LMS SYKE

If you are a regular reader of this blog you will know that I have mentioned many of these recently as longs. Which shows that the longs continue to breakout and then base before breaking out again. What a nice uptrend we have.

Aloha

Weekend Thoughts

Was Friday the start of something scary for the bulls? Was it just a pullback? Are we going higher?

Well, I, honestly, don't know. What I do know is that volume contracted, on all the indexes, from yesterday. So we can not say that institutions were heavy net sellers on Friday. Plus there are still too many charts that either hold up above key support areas or keep breaking out. With all the good chart patterns and how quickly the bears have come back out after ONE DAY, I still remain bullish on stocks. I follow trends and the trend is up. Now if within the next two weeks we keep selling off 1%+ and volume starts to pick up on the downside and we rally on lower volume then I will be bearish. But until that happens I still remain very bullish, tho not too bullish. I was 200% invested a week ago. That is down to about 120% now. And after finding more charts tonight and knowing there will be more next week, I am ready to go back on full margin if the markets continue this uptrend.

If there is one thing about me you will NEVER see. It is me going against an intermediate trend within the long term and short term time frames.

Once again my longs continue to act well, even after Friday's mild declines on lower volume.

New Swing longs: GFIG NTES HLTH CENT PACT / FADV BBD TCI. GIFG and NTES are the fundamental kings in this list.

With the way ABLE and GEOI have been performing in my portfolio (both up 50%+ in a very short time frame), I thought it would be smart to take some new positions in more small oil stocks that are making high volume breakouts or bouncing off the 50 dma on heavy turnover. TGE GDP BCON BDCO.

I will see you on Monday
Aloha

Market feels like 1995.

I just want to make some comments on why this market keeps going up. It keeps going up going because everyone is looking for that pullback that is supposed to happen. Well like I said yesterday, since everyone is looking for it, we are probably not going to get it. So that sums up how I feel about this market currently.

Now I am seeing a lot of similarities between this market and the 1994/1995 markets:

During that time inflation was low, inflation is historically low currently.

Rates after being raised steadily a full year came to an end, rates currently according to a Fed official is "in the 8th inning."

During the rally pessimisim was high just like it is now.

Everyone was expecting pullbacks the whole way up in 1995. People are already talking about it now. lol

During the start of the rally in 1994 there was not a 2% move in any of the indexes until September of 1995. Currently I have heard of people saying, "they will not believe the rally until the market is up 2% on heavy voluem."

At the start of the 1994 move there was a lot of beautiful charts in retail and technology. This current rally has a lot of beautiful charts in retail, tech, airline, medical, and consumer stocks.

Earnings at companies were growing. Earnings are huge in some of Investors Business Daily's top stocks.

The indexes were up from 25% to 40% and a lot of people missed out on the 1995 bull market. And a lot still missed out on Jan to June 1996 bull market.

The trend is your friend, my friends.

Longs swing trades: JDO--again, needs to take a break, XXIA--again, needs a small consolidation also, OPWV--again, 16 a better buy, ITU--high volume breakout, BBD--extremely high volume bounce off of 50 dma, ASR--again, high volume bounce off of 50dma and building base on base pattern, NNI--again, nice place to add to, AMOV--again, tiny tiny float, killer fundamentals, excellent chart pattern, KNDL--nice breakout above flat base, LMS--another breakout to a new high, PETS--high volume 50dma bounce, CIB--high volume bounce off 50 dma, ARTC--breakout to new high, CY--heavy volume move above May resistance, CPTV, CMRG, CONN



Aloha

Long candidate possibilities

Here are some more stock that are showing excellent chart patterns and are at buy points or after a pullback will be at one.

New swing/position longs: DCEL INCX MDKI TEO ECIL SIRF TCI HTG

Longs in new buy positions that I have mentioned already: RADS PWAV CAND INNO TERN CNMD AWGI CONN RG

See you tomorrow,
Aloha

Indexes remain strong, starting to see decent pullbacks in individual charts

The indexes all had very decent days, considering the late afternoon decline that showed up. I have a lot of stocks pulling back finally, so we may be finally starting a pullback soon on the indexes. If we do not pullback that just tells me this market is so strong and this is what you see when everyone expects a pullback. The nature of everyone thinking it is time to rest makes the contrarian play of "markets keep making new highs" quite possible.

However, with taking small TINY profits today and cutting some laggards, I have still found some great individual charts out there.

I hope everyone had a great trading day.

Swing/position longs: DCAI--again, GEOI--again, still can buy a little here, lots of upside potential, HURC--breaking to new highs on strong volume, COH--breakout to new high on strong volume, DHC--again, breakout to new high although on low volume, ELOS--breakout on heavy volume to make new highs, fundamentals of this company is excellent, ADEX--extended after breakout, buy as close to pivot point as possible, if possible, KEYW--breakout to new 3 month high on strong volume.

Check back in the morning for more speculative plays.

Aloha

Long swing trades for May 31st continued...

Airlines and Restaurants have joined Retail, Tech, and Medical for industries with a lot of good chart patterns in individual names.

My longs that I initiated in the past month continue to look great and after taking only a small portion of my gains off the table today I continue to be heavily long and will put more money to work in the names I mentioned in earlier posting today and in some of the new names that I am not already long. Some awesome chart patterns reared their heads today in stocks I already am long and as you can see with the names today the market is going to give us more gains.

These patterns do not show up in weak "bull market" bounces. These are the chart patterns, in the strong sectors, that you see in real strong uptrend.

New Speculative Swings: TRGL AIR CAL TERN MHX TRY CHKR ECOL NMTI

Swing longs already have positions in: INNO AWGI BMD QUIK SPTN STTS

Swing longs already mentioned in blog as swings, with no positions: STEM BDCO CMRG CAND PWEI

Wanted to brag about three holdings also: ENG ABLE GEOI

Bottom line, it feels good to be on the right side of the market. Doesn't it?

Aloha

On surface it looks bad but after scanning my charts it looks Good!

The nasty close on the indexes gave me the impression that today was not as strong as it looked all day. Then after updating all my charts after the bell I noticed something. The individual stocks in my scan look great. So I would not read too much into a day like this except to say that this was a pullback in the uptrend. How long it last and will go I do not know but I would like to talk about something.

In 1994, The fed hiked rates for a full year. At the end of the cycle the market (SP500) was already drifting up and then went on to rally from 490 to 650 the next year. That market is very similar to this one. This market has dealt with almost a full year of rate hikes, has drifted upward, and is showing signs, with the individual charts, that this market is ready to break lose. If the market is anticipating the Fed is almost done like it did in 1994, I think we could see a nice 20% or so rally.

With todays bad close there should not be this many nice charts with great buying positions yet there are!

Long swing/position trades: GOL DCAI JMDT GEOI ASFI RYAAY BER
On a pullback: JDO -- mentioned this weekend in my last blog entry. A nice pullback to around today's open in the next 5 days would make a great long.

Aloha

Memorial Day Weekend; Thank You, Soldiers!

Just wanted to check in this Memorial Day weekend and wish everyone well.

The markets did nothing exciting Friday, yet I found a bunch of nice charts just primed for higher prices. The only thing is a lot of the stocks seem speculative so keeping tight cut losses (as always) and using a smaller portion of capital is waranted with stocks under $10.

Long positions to swing: ESL--needs a pullback, SNDA, RAVN, STST, DHC, ASR, LAN, BDCO, GEOI, JDO, MLP, CMGI, BMD, CCI, CNQ, CFK, CONN, and PWEI.

I wanted to toot my horn and congratulate all who profited with me on the ABLE and GEOI stock. ABLE up 40%, since mention six days ago. GEOI up 16%, since mention three days ago.

I toot my own horn for the simple reason to show investors who dont believe in this rally that it doesnt matter what you think is going to happen in the market. The market has decided the bears are wrong and that is that. So if you have not been long equities because prices are too expensive, the economy is in trouble, the war in Iraq, or any other bearish reason you have missed a lot of great opportunites to make money. Why not cut losses, ride the trend up, and then wait for the charts to agree with your bearish "opinions." That way you can profit from both sides of the market, no matter what you think!

THANK YOU SOLDIERS
GOD BLESS AMERICA

Aloha from Maui :)

What were we thinking? Stop momentum? Yeah right.

We just keep on chugging along. As I have said, over and over, momentum once it starts going is hard to stop. Today yet another boatload of high quality, fundamentally sound stocks broke out or bounced off moving averages on good volume.

Trading was slow today but volume rose indicating funds are still buying right here and they dont see stocks as "gone too far too fast" yet.

Trading is sure to be lame tomorrow with Memorial Day weekend coming up. I will be around but doubt it.

None-the-less there are tons of charts to still play and stocks like CWTR (up 11%) are plentiful. What an incredible month it has been for my portfolio!!

Long swing trades: WIND VRSN XXIA LSCP BBBB LABS PTRY FSL ORCT EMKR OMR DHC GLW ENTU FMX CSGS QUIK (again) VASC (again) MCX CSU

Aloha and have a great evening.

Finally a rest. It's about time...

Finally, the markets took a decent rest. The pullback came on lighter volume than yesterday. That is what you see in strong markets, after going up you pullback on low volume. Everything still looks good. I have great charts popping up today, even with the pullback, so the market still looks strong longer term. However, this pullback, is well welcomed to set up new positions.

I do have a caveat, however. I have been bullish on this market since May 4 and a couple days ago got cautious. I still remain cautious but with all the great charts out there (something you dont see in ALL rallies) I am leaning long still.

What don't I like about this market? The fact that since the April/May lows only one index has had a rally over 2% (SP600, May 18, 2.12%) is a bit disheartening. In good solid bottoms like March 2003, you usually get a couple of big moves over 2% on heavy volume somewhere along the early stages of a strong rally, in the indexes. We have not seen that and I think we should have seen that by now. However, we are in a low volume environment where 2% moves could now be hard to come by.

I hope everybody had a great day.

Long swing/position trades: PVH CTRP BSTE GLW VASC CWTR CAND GEOI

Longs alreay mentioned w/ another buy possibility: QUIK RATE STEM ASTM PRLS IVX DADE ABLE TAGS

Aloha and where is the surf??????

Will it Ever End

When momentum gets moving it is hard to stop, think of a train going down the railroad tracks. When this many bears are still around after the run up we have had, it is safe to assume there is more upside ahead.

When will it end? Well I have thought now for a couple of days we needed to pullback on all the indexes. Instead we moved higher again and now more people think we definitely need to pullback. Do you know what that means? We probably will not pullback.

You have to be prepared for the opposite of what you here from everybody and since cautious longs are not fully invested and shorts are covering and cant find a good entry point there is a lot of nervousness out there to what happens next. So what happens now in the process is a guess. But a rest is needed.

With all the good charts out there still, I am bullish longer term. However, a pullback is needed but I will say once again there is too many folks looking for a pullback so overbought markets can become more overbought.

I am still finding TONS of charts that are breaking out of good bases. This is how it looks in BULL markets. Not only that, all my longs that I have taken past three weeks continue to look great. What more can I ask for, for now?

Swing Long Positions: RATE WEBX TALK AIRT PARL TAGS TPE PRLS IVX TIVO

How about that ENG today. Gave the heads up on it twice 5/10 and yesterday. Up 26% today. Also, WGAT is waking up again. That was first mentioned on April 8th.

Aloha

Market Momentum Continues

Longs are taunting bears, INTC been up 16 of 17 days, Nasdaq BOP (balance of power on tc2k5) is green for two days in a row always a negative for this index, perma bears that have missed this move are now buying, and, after all those reversals in the indexes closing at the high of the days, the markets closed very weak in the last hour today.

What does this mean. I don't know. But I will guess that it is time to take a breather. We are up very nicely since the April/May lows and stocks look overheated, so a breather would be welcomed here. But, then again, overbought markets can become more overbought as momentum is a crazy beast. A market this strong will have a lot of buyers ready to put cash to work at good entry points.

Swing Longs: RADS ANTP FMX RGCI SNS

Swing Longs I have already mentioned giving another buy point: CLHB KYPH NRPH RIMG ENG

Aloha

Long swing trades

I am going to take positions in ABLE RAVN KYPH in the morning. The rest of the longs I either have already or will watch. DCTH might also make a nice speculative long as the base is almost complete.

NGPS -- needs a pullback to pivot of recent base
RRGB
LKQX
RAVN
SIRI
CMGI
ABLE -- needs a pullback for a larger position. A small one is ok for a speculative play
DDDC
DCTH
KYPH

I have had too much fun this weekend. I hope everyone else had a great time too. Time to get back to work.

Aloha

Market continues to act healthy

The market continues to act well showing gains on heavy volume, pullbacks on light, that are then bought for positive reversals. This is what happens in a healthy market. The whole year we have not seen action like this in the individual charts and usually after going up some on the indexes we would see distribution days shortly after. That is not happening this time. You know why? Bulls are back in control due to the heavy bearish sentiment out there.

A point I would like to hit on today is the fact that so many people are saying "just wait till the market collapses and then you will see the scam the market is." What??? The problem with that view is not that I disagree with it but the timing is just aweful. Maybe consumers are loaded with debt and cant spen, economy is going to slow down, rates are going to rise, or inflation is going to get us. But it is not happening NOW or will it happen next week.

If you would have played the trend and looked at all the bullish charts out there, you could have made some good money. Instead I hear everyone complaining how they lost money the past two weeks. I recommend reading my blog. :)

Go through the past two weeks and write down the symbols and dates and look and see how much they are up now. It doesnt matter what you think of the market, what matters is performance. I have written in this blog over 20 stocks that have moved up over 15% since May 4. AND IT IS FREE!!!!!

I will update with some more swing longs this weekend. I surfed all day and enjoyed the waves so I want to rest before scanning for new plays.

Aloha

More longs for tomorrow.

I expect a pullback, tomorrow, dont forget. But there are still a TON of beautiful charts out there. If you look at the longs I have listed last two weeks you will see a LOT of them up over 15% since mention. This is what happens in a bull market. Strong breakouts produce WELL ABOVE average gains than all the old beaten down stocks of the previous bull market.

Here are some more leading stocks (I have mentioned some before :) for swing-long trades:
COI WMS HTRN QUIK BMD STEM ASTM CKR FCN STTS FOXH CBG VASC CGT

What a great rally we have had!! Hope you profited on it too.

Aloha

Rally continues but we need a pullback

Surf is large today in town, so the commentary is going to be short today.

What can I say, since the market gave us a confirmation day on May 4 we have gone straight up on the back of a wall of worry. The wall of worry is now starting to get worried that they are going to miss the upside move. Hello! You just did and now we need a pullback. Will we get it? I don't know. We might keep on climbing higher and higher on this negativity. But I am starting to see signs that individual charts need to take a breather.


I will be back later on after a surf session to look at some more individual longs.

Aloha.

Long swing trades for Thursday

Sorry for such a late post. The surf came up and kept me away.

Longs swing trades: CKCM PNRA TTN MSCC AMOV DIOD TAYC STX CLHB ENR TZIX TXCC WFR TARR SBAC AMX LTM VRSN EEFT WLSN TLWT PWAV DMC IMA

I have mentioned over half of these before. They continue to base, breakout, base, then breakout. That is how you want a stock to act.

Technology, medical, and retail are leaders in this rally and that is where my money is.

Aloha

Gosh I love blogs. I forgot something very important.

I forgot to mention, I expect a pullback here, because we have gone gone up a little too fast since May 4. Not a big dip just enough to get the bears growling again. The Nasdaq and SP600 are up over 5% since then and some of the move may appear obivous to the "dumb" money now.

Index continues advance in heavy trade.

The indexes were all up over 1% today, with the sp600 leading with a 2.12% gain, with a huge increase in volume. The big surge in volume is the confirmation the uptrend is valid. There is now no doubt that the rally we have been seeing is for real. The huge pickup in volume is the institutions putting more money to work on the long side, shorts covering positions, and institutions initiating new long positions. The old maxim "sell in May and go away" is probably going to be a contrarian this year. The follow thru in the Nasdaq on May 4 is now solidly proven with today's huge advance on stronger volume that was over the 50 day volume average.

In the chat rooms I monitor, I am getting selectively attacked by trapped bears. They continue to be bearish and think a top is now forming, even though a lot of sentiment indicators are at the same level they were in March 2003. This tells me this rally will have legs.

But I dont need chatters to tell me what the market is going to do that is why charts exist. And I am loaded to the gills with longs in medical, tech, and retail that are acting well and continue to offer me new buys.

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF. Dont fight the trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are in an uptrend and that is the right side of the market to be on, no matter how much you want a crash.

I will be back later with long picks. But if you just take the time to read my past 5 days of post you will find plenty of options to invest/trade there.

I want to thank everyone who reads this blog. I really appreciate your feedback even when it is negative.

Mahalo and Aloha

will be back later with stocks....

More stock charts I like

Here are some more charts that have great patterns: ELTK GNSS VRSN SO PWAV HCC WTW HXL JWN FD RGCI TRID SWY SFY

So if any traders out there tell you there is not anything to trade. Laugh at them.

Aloha

Keep on keepin on

The indexes continue their short term uptrend that they have been in since beg. of May and volume did pick up today. The bad news on the volume pick up is that it is still well below the 50 dva. So big funds still are not ready to jump into the market. However, charts are a plenty with good patterns. And while everyone complains and continues to be bearish, the Nasdaq is up almost 7% this month. Where have you been?

While the markets continue their short term uptrend, I continue to find nice charts that are breaking out or building excellent bases. How can I and about only 15 traders out of 2000 I monitor see this? It is amazing. If the bearishness was higher in the professional newsletter writers I would be slamming the table calling a bottom. However the pros are still bullish while the "herd" are very bearish. Do you know what that tells me on a ratio basis? That we have an upside bias that goes sideways for a while. Let's see if that is what we get.

Long swing trades: JMDT ASTM MCZ APH CNB STX LTBG TTN CPTV ELOS
Long swing trades I have mentioned before: CCRT LCAV WFMI HTCH LABS MUSE IDIX STTS

Remember you want to buy these as close to pivot point as possible (preferably within 5%, unless a gap then 10% is MAX allowed) for safety.

There are also tech stocks that I like the patterns on but are not ready yet : BRCM RATE THQI RGCI ARRS(missed this one on 4/28 cause mrkt. was weak.) VSEC

Aloha

Great move in the indexes on suspicious low volume.

The markets had a great move today but the volume was very low. That tells me that the big boys had very little to do with this move up. I would have like to see a move like today come on a nice pickup in trade. But that did not happen so we have to see if the big boys want to jump on this short term uptrend in the indexes. If they do that will be great, but if we get some decent down days on a pickup in volume I will get more cautious.

So instead I still remain bullish like I have been since 5/4/05 and continue to see strength in the Nasdaq. This weekend I gave a list of stocks that look like they are creating bases in the sector. Please, go back and read my weekend thoughts and check out my long list the past week. You can not argue with facts and facts say techs are going higher.

There is still a lot of bearishness out there with the "dumb" money (and sometimes it is beyond dumb) but after reading Helene Meisler's recent publication on www.realmoney.com I know that the Investment professional community is still bullish overall. So we will see how this rally unfolds.

Swing-long trades: COI TUG ABCO SPSS LIFC UNWR PACT
Swing-long trades I have mentioned before: MUSE NNI EEFT
Swing-long trades that need a pull back on low volume: VPHM

Aloha.

Weekend thoughts.....

I know I have been talking a lot about a rotation into tech, and have been sounding off pretty confident that the Nasdaq is going to outperform the Dow and SP. But I have more reasons to support my analysis.

I have looked at some scans and have noticed a lot of tech stocks building bases that show proper volume characteristics on up and down days. The stocks I mentioned on Thurs and Friday are not mentioned (so include those with these) in this list.

NTAP HTCH ISIL MRVL NTGR VSEA ATMI TTN TXN SEBL

I can not argue with the great price/volume action I am seeing in these stocks, but I do respect the fact that all indexes are trading below their 50 dmas so I remain cautious until a move of 1.7% comes on heavier volume than the day before and above the 50 dva on the indexes.

The markets are all in short term uptrends, intermediate term downtrends, and long term (2002 bottom) uptrends. The Nasdaq is in much better shape than the Dow and SP, and my gut and charts tell me that the negativity in the crowd on techs could prove to be very bullish.

But if the Nasdaq all of a sudden falls 2% on heavy trade and all my beautiful tech charts get busted, I will turn bearish on tech, of course.

I, btw, have not been bullish on the technology sector since 1999 and the early days of 2000 with all the bubble internet/software stocks. It has mostly been select sectors and small caps.

Which brings me to my next point. I am seeing a lot less high quality small cap stocks show up on my scans. I wonder if the steam has run out of this engine for now?

Be back on Monday. Unless I think of something else to talk about.

Fun week.

I still feel the same way I have all week. I believe the indexes are currently weak and that when this downward pressure is over tech will lead. Look at the Relative Strength line today on the Nasdaq compared to the SP. I also like how everytime we start to fall everyone calls a bear market, then next thing you know the dip is being bought. That has been the pattern for the past two weeks.

I do not have much else to add except all those nice charts I have been talking about in technology are just getting prettier and prettier. The longs in tech land have been killing the market. When the markets legs get moving, we are going to see an outperformance this time.

I continue to get plenty of beautiful charts on my swing-long scans. The ones that came up today are almost all tech. I can not argue with that. You can hate tech all you want but when they are moving up...YOU ARE WRONG. Not me.

NVDA DIOD PRGS TEAM MSCC STMP LMS SY EMC IDTI STTS RTSX and the one non-tech stock UHAL.

Argue all you want, my prettiest charts are all medical and tech.

Also my PRETTIEST chart that I first mentioned when I started creating this blog on April 1, 2005 (Go back and read what I posted) is now up almost 50% since my purchase on 3/24 at 3.00. Guess what kind of stock it is? A speculative technology stock SILCF. Its BalanceOfPower indicator has stayed max green the entire time since its breakout on the 23rd of March, everytime is has a good day up it comes on heavy volume, and down days happen with no volume. This is the way you want to see a stock act after a breakout. This is a speculative stock but I have to bring up the point how well these tech stocks have been acting the past two weeks to two months.
Of course if you buy the wrong stocks with poor chart patterns, you get what you deserve.

Aloha and have a great weekend.

The moving averages work again as resistance.

The market fell (not crashed/swooned/whatever) today on heavier turnover. Barely higher, however, as it was just a few mill shares.

Nothing changes in my assumptions. The market has proven resistance at the moving averages that I mentioned a couple days ago yet however as we hold the lows the bears grow. This helps keep me bullish short term.

I monitor a lot of chat rooms and KNOW that the ones that "chat" are around 75% bearish. This along with what I see on the TV, read in the paper, and hear from people continue to help me stay strong while the past two days have happened. I have had a good feel for the market all year long and no reason to change now.

Not only that, look at what medical stocks have done and tech charts are now starting to do. Swing-long trades: DGIN ABRX URBN MCX MUSE HSP POWI BBI FRGO

I have a lot of technology stocks popping up on my scans while the market falls, so I continue to believe tech is leading this next rally coming up.

Oh yeah. Time to admit a fault and admire a good....

ISSC. Bad trade. It reversed today. You cut your loss and move on.

INNO. I posted this chart as a long on April 20th and have been long since Jan 31st. I sold 1/4 today up 63%. Holding other 3/4 for further price appreciation according to chart.

Another nice intraday reversal.

April 29th the Nasdaq, Sp500, Dow, and Small Cap 600 all started out weak, got weaker, then reversed to close at or near the high of the days. The Nasdaq reversed the most dipping further down intraday than the rest of the indexes. The same thing happened today. These are moves you see in a current rally. And that is what we have been having for the past two weeks.

Today proved yet another chance for the bears to crush this rally and they couldn't do it. They even had help today with a plane flying off course and caused a spike down that ended up getting the stops and washed out the weak hands for the reversal.

The two reversals I have talked about above (apr 29 and today) did not happen all year as we were going down. When the market used to crack the bounce did nothing that constituted a bullish reversal. This time things are different. Dips are being bought.

The best thing about this rally, people are still bearish. That is the wall of worry we need to keep climbing. There is plenty of resistance ahead for the indexes but I keep looking at all these beautiful charts I have in leading sectors and fundamentally strong stocks and can't help but think these resistance levels on the indexes will be broken sooner rather than later. But if we get some heavier volume and some 2% moves down, I will of course change my mind. Doubt that happens this time though. The bears are late to the beginning of the year sell-off.

As a bonus, though, if you are a bear. How did you like my GRU short yesterday. You would have made a small killing in one day. I did not take the short, cause I believe we are in a rally-that-has-legs kinda market and did not want to risk a MCRS happening to me.

Swing-long trades to take (buy as close to pivot point as possible): ISSC PWAV DADE MTX BAP CCRT TXCC SYKE FARO. There are also some medical stocks that look good but I am not going long in them: HSIC BOL

Do me a favor if you read this, go back to yesterdays commentary and check out how TXCC, SYKE, and GRU (short) did. I know you will like that.

Have a great day!! I did. Aloha.

How bad was today? Not that bad, if you do your own work.

If you listen to the TV, read the paper, or visit chat rooms, you will notice the high level of negativity out there. If you look at the individual charts of the leaders in the market, however, you get a different story. Almost all of my longs acted well today, like the market didnt even go down, and plenty of new charts came up on my scan today for new swing-long positions. So who is right? I am not sure. So lets look at what we have now...

The indexes did what I mentioned they might do yesterday (bounce off key moving averages), with the Nasdaq bouncing down off 50/200 dma, Dow bouncing off the 200 dma, and the NYSE and SP500 bouncing off the 50 dma and they did it with a small increases in volume. Is it time to panic? No. A pullback or a consolidation is something we needed after seven straight up days. With all the nice charts I see on my scans that look good, the high level of pessimism, and all the focus on negative news in the media I feel comfortable that we will hold the lows set in April.

However, anything can happen. Always be receptive to market changes. It can happen at any time.

Update::::::::The more I look at the volume on the index charts the less I feel as confident as I was right after the market closes. One of the things I love about trading is that after doing something else fun and coming back to your work/hobby/love and reviewing the charts again, it is possible to interpret it differently. I still am bullish on my medicals and tech stocks still but I have to respect how well those index did in fact fail at the key moving averages. When the August low happened they pierced right thru the moving averages.:::::::Update.

Long swing-trades: FARO GHL GAJ IDIX CNMD CRYP ENG TXCC FORM BAP APT SYKE

and lets add one short I like from the 50 dma breakdown that was loved by daytraders: GRU

Aloha. No surf today :(

CKCM

I also noticed something in hindsight today...On Friday I mentioned how much I like the fundamental/technical patterns in CKCM. Well after today's 9% move, I can see I made a mistake. That move yesterday was a breakout from a proper W-bottom chart pattern that started in early Feb, made first bottom in March, second lower bottom on lower volume on May 1st, and broke out on Friday.

The 43% move blinded me to the fact that this stock broke out none-the-less. If I would have just been a little more aleart I would have noticed that from the 2002 bottom to the 2005 top, it moved 5,805%. That would of helped me notice the W-bottom within the larger uptrend and could have alowed me to gain an entry today. Instead I now have to wait for that pullback.

It is never losing money that bothers traders, it is missing out on the huge winners that hurt the most.

Another boring day, another constructive day.

Today was a good day for the bulls, even though volume fell across the board. I like that I still see a lot of bearishness in the chat rooms I monitor. I call this climbing "the wall of worry." I see a lot of good chart patterns from tech and medical stocks, so I find impossible to understand why so many people are bearish. But that is what makes a market, the few who can follow the trend and not try to game the future always come out ahead. So if you are in to predicting what the market is going to do game, I would come over to the trend side. I see a change in the market from what we had the past couple of months.

The indexes are near resistance levels and I am sure that comforts the bears. But with all the positive charts out there and the money that the medicals have been making me I dont think those resistance levels are going to hold. It appears they might soon become support. But once again. I dont know. I am just trying to think opposite from the majority of traders I know now. Think about it: we had two dips today and both were bought and we closed near the highs of the day. That is not bearish.

And you know what my example of a bull market is: NURO (another plus 10% gain in less than a week for a medical stock after breaking out).

Now for today's swing-trade longs: KV-A NRPH LMS APT FORD BAP ACU FTO NNI OMR SBAC FSL ABB FC.

I have mentioned many of these before. Which either means they continue to go up then rebase and break out again. Or I got them on the 50dma and now they are breaking out of most recent bases. THIS IS NOT PUMPING!! This is smart trading.

Also I mentioned in the #daytraders chat room, Friday, that the ET and AMTD merger rumor is probably true, since both stocks have been tracing the same chart pattern for the past year and a half. I said this because that is what DCAI and MDKI did recently before DCAI took it in.

ALOHA this has been a great week and a half. Lots of money to be made on the long side still.

Consolidating gains

The markets did close to nothing today, with a major dip in volume. That is a good sign for the bulls as consolidating gains helps prepare for a stronger move higher. Besides that, there is not much else I have to add. I am sure you were as bored today as I was with the action. Overall, however, I am happy with the action and hope we have some better trading in the upcoming weeks. If you have been reading this blog for the past week you will notice that over 75% of all swing trades I have offered as potential trades have moved higher (some significantly). That is what happens when the markets are in uptrends. :)

Here are the charts that came up on my scan today for swing-trade long positions:
OMR LABS RNWK SBAC AFCO IW

CKCM is my next "I REALLY WANT TO OWN THIS" stock. The move today came on its heaviest volume in its history. The prior uptrend that ended in Feb came on huge trade, the pullback to today came on light trade, and today the stock POPPED on its largest trade ever. EXCELLENT pattern. If this stock can base sideways or move lower a bit, an entry is something I "long" for. I believe new highs are coming. This chart is just beautiful (even tho it is not ready yet) and look at the fundamentals: YOY revenue change of 107%, Profits up 209%, pre-tax profit margin of 24%, EPS 76, and RS 98. If the market stays bullish this is going to be a nice stock.

ALOHA. C U on Monday.

A solid day after some negative news.

Today was a victory for the bulls, because there was plenty of reasons for the sellers to reverse yesterdays gains. GM and F downgrade of bonds to junk status by SP was the big one. Yet the bulls fought it off and closed the day on a positive sign by not closing at the LOD (low of the day). We have broken the up, down, up, down, up pattern, by not giving back the majority of today's gains. Volume was also lighter than yesterday suggesting the indexes are digesting yesterdays gains for a further move to the upside.

I don't have much else to say, cause today was a boring day for the indexes but lets look at stocks...There are starting to be some great patterns in technology and medical is already leading this current short-term rally. Here are some more stocks that look healthy for further price appreciation. Rember you want to buy these as close to the pivot point as you can.

BLUD RNWK BOOM CMD GENZ OATS WFMI SMTS CCRT THOR CHTT

And for everyone that thinks BOOM is a scam stock. Why don't you look at the fundamentals of the company and let the market decide if it is a scam or not. Since its February 15th breakout, it is clear to see on a daily chart that there are no sellers in the crowd only buyers. That is why in April the downtrend was on low volume. Since the Feb breakout it is up 140%. What kind of scam is that????? NONE.

ALOHA and SURFS UP!!

Markets in confirmed rally for the short-term and sub-intermediate time frame.

Intermediate still remains down but who cares!!!! The market's primary trend since the October 2002 bottom has been sideways. THIS IS A GOOD THING! It is called base building. I am starting to see a lot more cry-babies and whiners in the chat rooms that I monitor. That tells me, along with the more recent bearish newsletter writers, that this turn could have some good legs to go with it. Sentiment is so poor and the bears are so confident that prices are going to fall that I think further upside is almost a certain to happen. But it doesn't matter what I think.

Stocks advanced across the board, volume grew, and more breakouts appeared with good fundamentals. Not good for the perma-bears who think the market is going to fall apart and go to hell. Are they crazy? No. Just newbies or lazy people who refuse to look to the past for answers and want their prediction to come true. Too bad it almost never does work out that way.

Also don't forget: I hear a lot of people saying "but rates are rising, rates are rising." Once again, If you look at history, the market proves conventional wisdom wrong again. Going back to 1997, you can clearly see that when rates are rising the market goes higher. When the Fed is cutting rates the market follows the rates. Don't believe me. Go look for yourself.

Fed begins rasing rates to the end of its raising cycle: stocks move up.
Fed begins lowering rates to the bottom of its lowering cycle: stocks move down.

Don't fret the Fed.

I have covered ALL oil shorts and have less than 3% of my account short. That tells me this is a strong market, with medicals leading the way.

ALOHA.

Longs for swing trades

I will be back later on to explain the conditions the markets are in.

Swing trade longs should be bought as close to the pivot point as possible, remember.

MSCC FLOW SBAC CNU AQNT PSTI UNWR THOR. AQNT CNU PSTI need to pullback before they are new buys.

If you have been reading my blog, you know I screwed up on QSII. You should also know that I have bought PSTI TWICE and had to cut the loss twice. Look at what it did today (up 9.75%). Oh well. But now time to show you good examples. CNU TZIX RCI. Sold RCI today, TZIX still holding since purchase up 25%, and CNU (up 12% today) still holding for much higher prices. CNU is in the right industry, and has one of the best looking charts in my long portfolio besides DSTI SCVL INNO.

Aloha. I will be back to talk about the indexes after another surf session.

Market is confused! Cash is king.

Nothing to add today that I have not mentioned before. Market is still in overall downtrend with small signs that it is trying to bottom on the very short-term. I can not add much today that has not already been heard or said, if you follow the market. Thank God we have a huge swell coming in our south shore beaches and I was not around for the "excitement" that a Fed meeting causes. Nothing has changed in my assumptions about the market. I have found some long swing-positions to take a SMALL poke on. Going long in this market if you are not experienced is slow suicide. Unless you are long GOOG and as much as I know about the company and how well I follow IBD, I should be ashamed of myself for not owning some shares of the most fundamentally strong stock in the market. Bottom line, in this market, cash is your best investment.

Long swing-positions (keep tight cut losses in this market): NLS NURO VDSI TUP

Aloha, SURFS UP!!

A coma is more exciting than this market.

The markets did close strong at or near the highs of the day, but really today was meaningless and dull. It was a very boring day and came with some of the lowest volume we have seen all year. Everybody is waiting to hear from Greenspan, which I can only pray gives us some direction of follow-thru to the downside or upside so we can get some decent action on the indexes instead of this up, down, up, down, up, and down series. I am still sitting mostly on cash and am holding few shorts and longs. Most of my longs are completely made of medicals. I do however have a few decent longs to show tonight for possible long swing-trades.

ACU DJO PMD RCI PHS WOOF THOR IMA ATRI ROL LKQX PWAV ABB

All of the stocks (except last four) are from the medical industry. It is obvious looking at all my medical stocks making nice moves out of good bases that this is the only "safe" (using it loosely) area to make good consistent money on the long side currently. I am not sure what this says about the market cause the market changes all the time. But history shows, when you have medicals leading, the market is not too healthy. Unless this time it is different. Don't you love it? I do.

I will be back later to see if there are any more longs I missed and if there are any shorts I might want to poke.
Aloha

Three more longs that I like for swing trades

After updating IBD Your Weekly Review, 100, and Where Big Money Flowing, I have come up with three long swing-trades:
CNXS
ACU
KTII

Aloha